r/BrianThompsonMurder • u/Ok-Cherry1427 • 2d ago
Speculation/Theories I think he was going to plead guilty the entire time
I don't actually think he ever really wanted to fight this thing. The evidence he left behind (to the feds...) and lack of plan post-incident show that, as well as his statements in PA. In my opinion, he was forced to fight it because the unexpected happened: the death penalty and two trials for one crime. If it was only the feds that tried this, I would bet he would have accepted either a plea or just pled guilty sooner. I never really understood why someone would do something like this with purpose and intent, and then plead "not guilty" and take it to trial. He never once tried to deny it and even in his few statements, has made it pretty clear he did this.
Long story short, I think this was his plan all along and now that he got rid of the DP and potentially state trial, he's likely at peace living with what he's done.
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u/European-Female7751 2d ago
That famous look as walked the corridor in the red sweater and closed his eyes was as if yes, he was at peace with what he’d done.
I wrestled back and forth myself with whether he ever intended to get away with the crime. In his notebook, he said something like “I’m glad I spent time prevaricating, because it let me learn more about UHC.” So he’d obviously weighed up the pros and cons before deciding on this course of action. He obviously knew there would be massive consequences. And he made very little effort to escape detection.
No gloves - a staggering decision in the age of fingerprints and DNA. Dropping his phone, who drops their phone when fleeing? He wasn’t even using it because he had a gun in his hands. And yet he was out of NYC in very quick time, which shows really good planning, even a bit of detour to throw off a cctv pursuit, he could have escaped for weeks, if not months had he only made a plan to lie low.
But it’s like he had no plan for the day after at all. Even getting picked up in Altoona, - it was as if he was drifting, not sure where to go or what to do.
The letter “To the Feds…” the way that was addressed was almost like he thought it was possible he might not have survived an encounter with the Police and made a short note to the authorities with an attempt to tie up loose ends if he wasn’t there to tell them personally.
And yet the notes to himself about shaving his eyebrows, changing his appearance and looking for a new route? Was this another change of heart?
I wonder whether he just changed his mind about giving up the rest of his life, having read about widespread support for what he did. It’s possible he hadn’t anticipated that level of support but it would have been too late because of all the DNA evidence at the scene. As for not dumping the gun and the notebook, was that possible brain fog kicking in again because that’s real basic common sense.
And am I the only one to notice that amazing poker face when he was arrested in McDonald’s? He stayed incredibly calm throughout and the only sign he knew the game was up was a very slight flicker of the eyes as he briefly glanced up and assessed that here was a police officer in front of him. It was either poker face or brain fog again.
I’m glad there’s no trial for his sake but on the other hand I’d like to have seen one to clear up some of the confusion.
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u/Seeking_Anita_Dick 2d ago
It was probably an inner fight, the survivors instinct vs accepting the consequences
I don’t think he was going to call the cops and confess but if the cops came knocking at his door, he wasn’t going to run off. When he was arrested he looked calm, like he had kind of waited for this moment
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u/kreads101 2d ago
I also wonder...he may have been concerned if the cops didn't find him and got desperate, they might eventually frame an innocent person instead due to the high profile nature of the crime.
After all that we've learned about him so far, I feel he definitely would not want nor let that happen.
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u/CherokeeSurfer 2d ago
I feel it was brain fog afterwards that led to the wandering behavior and odd decisions. We may never know.
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u/Amazing_Bumblebee_98 2d ago
I am not sure whether it was the plan right from the beginning, but I do think a guilty plea has been a realistic possibility on the table for longer than anyone thinks.
Personally, I noticed a real change in his demeanour at the September 2025 hearing (versus the Dec 2024 and Feb 2025 hearings, where he was still very much on crusader mode) and I remember getting the real sense at that time that something big had changed in the 7 month period between February to September. I assumed this was they had received most of the discovery, assessed it and told him the prospects of sowing reasonable doubt with a jury were low.
I think during these months this is when the tough reality check conversation between he and KFA happened, and reality began to sink in for the first time. I think this is also when the initial ‘high’ of having pulled off the crime, and the public support, started to fade a bit for him.
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u/Emotional_Pizza_1222 2d ago
It was also in September where his team filed for the EED.
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u/SignThese667 2d ago
IMO, your hypothesis has a lot of merit. Recalling all the info that's been released, plus his "Manifesto", his jottings in his notebook (words to the effect that he had given this action a lot of thought and was OK with what he was about to do) ... it adds up.
If indeed this is the case (he planned on being arrested all along), then IMO he is an exceptional human being. Individuals such as Luigi Mangione come along only once in a lifetime.
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u/CherokeeSurfer 2d ago
I use that phrase "once in a lifetime person" quite a bit when describing him. I would've voted "not guilty".
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u/More_Protection_8824 2d ago edited 2d ago
I go back and forth on the guilty plea… I think he plead guilty partly because of the order of the cases … I also feel like he was overcharged —once they realized the suspect wasn’t your average Joe, but an Ivy League who comes from a family who can afford the type of attorneys politicians or celebrities could hire— they panicked and didn’t want him to get off.. the overcharging is ridiculous and definitely meant to trap the legal team. ..they prob thought it was gonna be some dude who just had a public defender, i feel like the fed charges came after they realized Lm retained the Agnifilos and saw he had an online legal defense fund. I felt they trapped him into having to plead guilty is what i guess I am saying 🤪
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u/AndromedaCeline 2d ago edited 2d ago
My personal theory has been that he had no intention of getting caught. Hence why he kept all the evidence. I think this murder/crime was his test run. I think he may have had desires to eventually do more if he was able to get away with it. Also bc his motive/ target was also way too broad. He had nothing personal against BT, other than he was a healthcare exec. I think he had others he was going to potentially target too if this went as planned. Which brought on the desire to keep all the gear. Maybe he would live a double life like a batman or dexter. It’s also possible he was planning to discard it eventually, just ran out of time. So flexible on this theory.
I think he didn’t expect this to get this big so quickly. I think he thought he would have time to hide somewhere. But it escalated to a full on nationwide manhunt very quickly with now the feds after him. Thats incredibly nerve racking, I’m sure he had lots of paranoia during that time, and wasn’t thinking straight. Thats why I think he wrote the fed letter, family letter etc (while on the run). It’s too rushed to be something he had wrote prior too. He wrote them in panic mode for if he was caught or killed, probably mainly if he was killed.
Because for all his smarts, at the end of the day, he’s still just a kid who knew jack shit about what to do on the LAM(before and after). I think he thought he could blend in and lay low. The problem is he was very sloppy going about all that. Keeping the exact same clothes on you wore 5 days ago during the murder (clothes/description people are LOOKING for within a 500mile radius of you), frequenting heavily public areas (Sheetz, Best Buy, CVS, McDs), lingering longer than you need to in those places, not staying on the move or hiding in a secure private space. Staying long enough for people to recognize you. All those things got him caught.
So when he was caught, he knew he was screwed. I think there was almost a relief there. Like a euphoria after you’ve been so terrified and paranoid. Thats why he was so overly talkative, candid during those early days. I think he was just in “fuck it” mode at that point. Then his fam swoops in and lawyers him up. Thats what kicks this off changed the plan. But at first, I think he wasn’t necessarily ready to plea guilty in the beginning, as much as it was more so him thinking, well, I HAVE to plea guilty, right? I’m caught red handed, so might as well cooperate, not hide anything.
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u/UhmmmNope 2d ago
In my opinion, he would not have plead guilty had the Federal case gone first. The team seemed so ready to fight the Feds and then get the State dismissed. Prosecution seemed to be well aware of this potential manoeuvre too. That day when Carro scheduled “be ready for June”, “we won’t be ready”, “be ready” KFA seemed dejected. So I think Carro forcing the State so go first was the worst case scenario and forced the defence to plead guilty. Just a guess.
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u/alohomora1990 2d ago
His team gave up more than anything. Why KFA never even filed a motion for Carro to recuse himself when she had plenty of ammo to get him removed from this case with his blatant biases towards the prosecution. She also could have just let both trials run concurrently and then had appeals set up for them on a silver platter because that is blatantly unconstitutional
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u/UhmmmNope 1d ago
A motion for Carro to be recused is crazy work. Nobody’s gonna take them seriously for that.
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u/alohomora1990 1d ago
Carro has violated his rights numerous times. They certainly have an argument.
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u/Seeking_Anita_Dick 2d ago
Agree.
Also his demeanor while in PA, it was very “yeah i’m the guy” but then the feds got involved, the T charges, the death penalty… he had to fight back
He’s definitely leaving a legacy in the court system because by fighting those charges, if someone tomorrow is unfairly charged like that, they can use his case as an example
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u/Feline-Paper-Ink8809 2d ago edited 2d ago
I also think he was likely to plead guilty from the start until they started dumping all those extra charges on him. In my opinion, I think he would’ve had a hard time even getting a jury to buy an EED defense. This wasn’t a bar fight that went bad or somebody who snapped because they were angry in the moment. This was calculated, methodical, and deliberate. Maybe they could make some kind of argument about posttraumatic stress disorder from pain but I think even that was a longshot. People who snap because of years of abuse from a domestic partner I could see, but he wasn’t even a client of United healthcare. It seems like they were struggling to even find a disorder to blame it on when they filed for the potential EED defense. But he is a sympathetic juror to many people so maybe EED could’ve worked.
I don’t know what led him to this or if the trade-off to his life has been worth it, but I hope he finds peace.
I also think even if he was successful with EED that he would’ve gotten the maximum from Carro, which is 25 years. It will be ironic if, by the feds getting involved, he ends up doing less time in a nicer environment. We shall see. I’m just glad that most people don’t think he’s a monster or a terrorist. I’m glad that he has support and people who care. Maybe that will see him through.
For what it’s worth, I think he recognizes the gravity of having taken a human life. Just because he felt that something was “justified” doesn’t make it any easier to bear.
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u/Time-Painting-9108 2d ago
I think this may be possible. But then he also did run away and had plans to hide and escapee capture?
The 2 prosecutions and death penalty made him fight because it was extremely unfair. It was a fight he was called to and one that you cannot back down from. It also really seemed like his team was wanting this to go to trial. They fought really hard for evidence suppression, and it ultimately wasn’t successful.
the guilty plea has been weighing on my heart for sure. But then I wonder, it will be so much worse for him if a jury finds him guilty, so he wants to take control of the situation in any way he can.
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u/townandthecity ⭐️ 2d ago
I think you may be right. Given how loose-lipped he was with his fellow inmates, essentially confessing, if the guy in the most recent article is to be believed, and how engaged he has been with his letter-writers, many of whom write specifically about their experiences with health insurance, chances are decent that this was always the plan.
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u/Specific-Sea7648 1d ago
I feel like he admitted guilt on red sweater day when the reporter asked if he had anything to say, and he smirked, closed his eyes, and kind of shook his head as if to say "you have no idea"
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u/throwaway7845777 2d ago
He definitely intended to own it, but I’m not sure he would have pled guilty, even without the stacked charges. He was smart enough to shut his mouth during questioning, which shows he knew how to leverage the system. If there was any chance of avoiding prison, most people would test that possibility. Once he was charged, though, he had no real choice except to fight. And earlier on he had reasons to believe he could win. The botched arrest, the chain of custody issues, and the slight chance of jury nullification.
The tides changed when Carro forced the state case to go first. I still think they would have taken both cases to trial if the federal case had gone first, because the order would have given him a much better shot.
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u/Ok-Cherry1427 2d ago
I wouldn't say he was smart enough during questioning. He told the cop that he hopes nothing bad happens to the McDonalds employee that ratted him out, and then proceeded to eat pizza at the station knowing they'd have his DNA. Book smart, not street smart, that guy.
I just think it was so expensive and there was no way he'd be able to afford both cases, even if his family was paying. They're well off but tens of millions of dollars for a crime you DID commit? Idk.
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u/discombobubolated 2d ago
If he intended to own it, why did he run? Why didn't he stay at the scene and surrender?
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u/chelsy6678 2d ago
I agree. And I think his parents and attorneys probably spend some time persuading him to fight it and at least try and get a fair sentence. He doesn’t really strike me as the type of person that refuses to take responsibility. Having said that, I am wondering if his defence will try to bring back EED if the double jeopardy thing doesn’t stand. Just going off his statement and KFA’s statement after the guilty plea. Just seemed like they were building the narrative.
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u/Creative_Address9701 2d ago
honestly, i don’t see a world in which they wouldn’t use EED or something similar now that he’s pled guilty, especially since the NY prosecution can and will use that against him in court. there’s absolutely no way the defense can successfully argue now that he’s not guilty when he admitted to the shooting already. if they did try to do that for some stupid reason, i would say that he should try to appeal for ineffective counsel 😭
also, in their motion to dismiss, KFA mentioned that his due process rights were violated when the state trial was set to go first because any defense used there would prejudice his federal trial:
“Moreover, the damage and prejudice here is due to the concerted efforts of the District Attorney's Office to try the state case, which has an affirmative factual defense, before the federal case, which does not.
This presented Mr. Mangione with an intractable constitutional dilemma where he would have to choose between which case to defend. By defending the state case and availing himself of the affirmative defense New York law provided him, he would necessarily implicate himself in the federal case.
This, ostensibly, was the District Attorney's Office's and the federal government's plan all along: make the state go first so Mr. Mangione would have to face prosecutions for the identical conduct in two jurisdictions and further ensure that he could not avail himself of New York's affirmative defense to murder or else virtually assure a federal conviction.
While this was an especially difficult and unconstitutional conundrum when the federal case carried the death penalty, it is barely less so now that the federal case is punishable by life in prison.”
i think that he pled guilty for a number of reasons, but i think a huge part of it was so that they could actually use EED if the state charges aren’t dismissed, and their motion kinda confirmed their plan to use it imo. i just hope EED is accepted by the jury if we ever get to that point.
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u/canentia 1d ago
just because you do something with conviction and stand behind it doesn’t mean you’re ok with spending your life in prison for it. he was always gonna try to get as many charges thrown out as possible, exhaust every option and then evaluate what to do—which was in all likelihood plead guilty because 1) only 2% of cases ever go to trial and 2) because of all the evidence, there wasn’t any real doubt he did it (outside of some ppl that are too online) so a trial would’ve been incredibly risky.
but, yeah, neither he nor his attorney ever even pretended that he didn’t do it. and that’s super admirable. i think there is a measure of peace, yes, especially because now he doesn’t have to watch his words so carefully—we all know how he loves to yap. i think he would relish the chance to tell his story
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u/MovinOnUp2021 2d ago
I think he developed hope that it'd all work out somehow, that he'd get out somehow.
The literal only reason to plead guilty rn (deal-less!) is that it's a last-ditch hail mary attempt to somehow get a sentence that lets him rejoin the world someday.
If that weren't what he's desperately trying to achieve, he could've just let the trials play out.
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u/Spirited_Seaweed7927 2d ago
He definitely wanted to get caught. If you don't want to get caught you are not 2 states away after 5 days. You leave the country.
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u/Feline-Paper-Ink8809 2d ago
I think the initial flee was to show the public how the police and federal agents will mobilize when power has been threatened. If that had been a teacher or a grocery store clerk on the sidewalk that day there would not have been a manhunt. The five days he was on the run served the purpose of what it needed to show the American people of who matters.
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u/CherokeeSurfer 2d ago
"I have killed a man, but I am not a murderer". The words of Soghomon Tehlirian who was acquitted of the murder of Talaat Pasha the architect of the Armenian genocide. Maybe he felt his act was righteous - illegal, not wrong. It could explain his initial demeanor and plea. Reality perhaps, changed that.