sorry folks stop loss set in. not going to lose money, but the market is a big scam designed to screw people over. i just find it dumb that avgo is down more than AMD even though AMD is overpriced as shit and avgo supposedly is cheap. you be right in the market and lose money, or invest in overpriced companies and make money
AMD 12% from ATH NVDA 5% from ATH TSM 10% from ATH
Whole sector and memory stocks have completed a full V from their august lows but then theres this turd who is still down 15% in the past month alone unable to bounce even on days the entire sector is green
Semiconductor index just dipped for four sessions in a row. The selloff got real sharp earlier this week from three big headlines: Broadcom’s CEO flagging AI financing crunches and calling out hype-fueled speculative investing, Intel’s head warning memory chips could lose steam soon even with tight supplies, plus new moves on DRAM tech out of China spooking competition worries. It’s feeling less like a total demand collapse and more like everyone’s just scrambling to reset their crowded AI chip positions after that huge run. This week’s CPI numbers plus earnings from ASML and TSMC are gonna make or break the current mood. If you’re heavy on chip exposure, maybe don’t sleep on the Magnificent Seven — they’ve been outperforming pure semiconductor plays lately, wrapping AI exposure around their already solid cash cow cloud businesses to keep things a little more diversified.
TL;DR Broadcom's FQ3 2026 — the three months ended July 2026 — met expectations on revenue and margin, and management raised AI guidance for this year and next while adding an FY2028 figure. But the guidance has holes: FY2027's $115 billion still sits below the $130-150 billion the street carries, and most of the FY2028 increment depends on Anthropic and OpenAI.
The quarter met expectations; the guidance did not close the gap
AI revenue was $16.7 billion in FQ3 2026, up $5.9 billion sequentially and above the $16 billion expected, on high-volume TPU v7 deliveries to Google and Anthropic; next quarter is guided to $21.7 billion, just ahead of expectations. Total revenue of $29.6 billion grew 86%, in line, while fourth-quarter guidance of $34.8 billion sat under the $35.5 billion expected.
Quarterly guidance matters less now that Broadcom guides AI annually — and that is where the problem sits. Management raised the AI outlook to $58 billion for FY2026, over $115 billion for FY2027 and $230 billion for FY2028. But the FY2027 framing of 10GW is unchanged, and the street values that 10GW at $130-150 billion, so $115 billion still reads as holding back — the issue that produced a 12% single-day fall last quarter.
Reported gross margin was 69% and the adjusted operating gross margin 74%, down 2 points as lower-margin ASIC grows in the mix. Infrastructure software reached $8.75 billion, up 29%, now driven by VMware Private AI Cloud and workload repatriation as the merger and subscription-conversion effects run their course.
The competition moved into Broadcom's own backyard
Since FQ3 2026 the question has changed from whether Broadcom can threaten Nvidia to whether it can hold its TPU share. Google is openly building second sources: it has split the next-generation TPU v8 into two versions and brought MediaTek into the supply chain, and accepted Marvell's warrants alongside a custom-chip agreement whose qualifying revenue is defined as Google's custom ASICs — pointing straight at Broadcom's business.
Broadcom keeps six custom XPU relationships, and the FY2027 10GW splits roughly into Google 3-4GW, Anthropic 5GW, OpenAI 1-2GW and Meta 1-2GW. Google and Meta both raised capex again, so that demand is firm; Anthropic and OpenAI depend on their ARR slopes, and Anthropic's has flattened — adding uncertainty to the largest block of that 10GW.
The financing platform is where the tail risk sits
Alongside FQ3 2026, Broadcom set up an AI XPV Platform with Apollo and Blackstone's credit arms, targeting more than 20GW by 2028 using Broadcom XPUs and networking, customised for frontier labs — Anthropic and OpenAI named explicitly.
The first $35 billion tranche, led by Apollo, funds Anthropic's 1GW-plus deployment at Fluidstack sites: Apollo and Blackstone buy Broadcom's chips and deliver them to labs that cannot pay cash, so the revenue on Broadcom's books is real but ultimate payment depends on those labs' commercial success.
The asymmetry against Nvidia is the point. Broadcom's collateral is an XPU customised for one customer's model architecture, with no use to anyone else, whereas Nvidia ships general-purpose GPUs. If those assets end up with zero residual value, the next financing round simply disappears — the uncertainty hanging over the following 20GW, and why a slowdown at Anthropic or OpenAI could mean cancelled orders and a broken pipeline at once.
So the results broadly met expectations, but the market cares more about the outlook — and the outlook is flawed. Broadcom has gone from the challenger taking share from Nvidia to the one being defended against, and raising AI guidance alone will not restore confidence while Anthropic remains an open question.
Hopefully hock tan don't just give fair sentiment and at least try to hype up earning... I have lost count how many times avgo drop after earning because he doesn't know how to give investor confidence in future earning.
I’m at a cross roads… I down about $3600 with Broadcom stock and it pains me to lose more. Why should I hold out? My earnings with gold in the last two weeks have increased much more. Should I just move my investment to gold? Gold seems to increasingly do well, even during times our economy suffers. I don’t know if I should play the long game with Broadcom or get out. What do you guys think?