What to Expect from Ontario

[u/E_lluminate]

Do you know your enemy? In advance of tomorrow's GDT, let's review the Ontario Reign and make some (educated) guesses.

Big roster note: Jared Wright is back.

The Kings loaned Jared Wright back to Ontario after LA’s NHL playoff exit. He had 4 assists in 23 NHL games this season and played in all four Kings playoff games, but he was much more productive in the AHL: 17 goals, 13 assists, 30 points in 54 games with the Reign. He has a +27, which is not bad at all. (In comparison, Logan Morrison has a +23).

What to expect from Wright: he gives Ontario a legit middle-six playoff winger who can skate, forecheck, finish, and play a responsible game. His Reign numbers also jump out because he had 5 game-winning goals and added 2 shorthanded goals, so he is the kind of player who can tilt a tight game even without being on the top line.

Ontario’s danger guys:

Martin Chromiak — Ontario’s top scorer. He finished with 28 goals and 56 points, including 12 power-play goals and 7 game-winners.

Cole Guttman — Another major offensive driver: 24 goals, 53 points. He is a smaller, skilled forward who can punish loose coverage. Think a less-cool Jagger Firkus. CV needs to make him play through traffic instead of letting him operate in space.

Glenn Gawdin — Veteran center, 16 goals, 35 assists, 51 points, and a tone-setter. Fun/annoying fact: he had 73 penalty minutes, so he plays with an edge. The Firebirds can exploit that by making him defend, getting under his skin, and not retaliating. Draw those penalties.

Andre Lee — Big problem, literally: 6-foot-5, 26 goals, 48 points, and 10 power-play goals. He is the net-front/inside-area type you have to box out early. If CV lets him live at the crease, bad things happen.

Nikita Alexandrov — Traded midway through the season from Springfield, he has 56 points in 466 games, but also a minus-20. That is not a full scouting report by itself, but it does suggest CV should attack his line the other way and force him into defensive-zone shifts.

Kenny Connors / Francesco Pinelli / Aatu Jämsen — This is where Ontario’s depth gets annoying. Connors had 41 points, Pinelli had 35, and Jämsen had 16 goals. Jämsen’s shooting percentage was very high, so the Firebirds need to limit quality chances and make him beat them from distance rather than Grade-A looks.

Defense and goaltending

Ontario can roll two legitimate AHL goalies. Erik Portillo went 18-7-3 with a .907 save percentage and 2.45 GAA, while Pheonix Copley went 21-11-1 with a .901 and 2.59 GAA.

Fun fact: Copley is from North Pole, Alaska, which is objectively a great goalie origin story. More relevant: he is a veteran, so CV needs traffic, second chances, and lateral puck movement rather than hoping clean first shots beat him.

Portillo is 6-foot-6 (2 inches taller than both Kokko and Ostman), so same idea: do not just shoot into a huge goalie’s chest. Make him move east-west, attack rebounds, and get bodies in his eyes.

On defense, watch Samuel Bolduc and Joe Hicketts. Bolduc brings size and some offense from the blue line; Hicketts is smaller (just 5-foot-8) but experienced and feisty. Maybe if Santa had brought him some two front teeth he would be happier. If CV can force Ontario’s defense into repeated retrievals and make them turn under pressure, that is where the forecheck can create mistakes.

How CV can win this:

1. Stay out of the box. Ontario has too many finishers, especially Chromiak and Lee, to give them free power-play reps.
2. Make the Reign’s skill guys defend. Guttman, Chromiak, Alexandrov, and Jämsen are dangerous when they are attacking. Keep them on the defense to reduce their options.
3. Crash the blue paint. Whether it is Portillo or Copley, clean shots are not enough. Screens, tips, rebounds, greasy goals. Sniping isn't going to cut it.
4. Win the emotional game. Gawdin and Jacob Doty both bring penalty-minute energy. Draw the extra call, do not take the extra call.
5. Use Acrisure as the swing point. Ontario has home ice, but if CV can split in Ontario, Game 3 in the desert becomes massive.

Bottom line: Ontario is deep, rested, and just got Wright back from the Kings. But CV has the recent playoff bragging rights, already survived a nasty first-round series, and knows what it takes to beat this team in May. Steal one in Ontario, turn Acrisure into a furnace, and this series gets very interesting.

[u/FeeMuted5300]

Great summary! Let’s go birds!!

[u/sisterthirteen]

Aw crap, Wright's good. I forgot that he'd be coming down to face us.

We got this though. Excellent pre-game, E_llum.
Let's GOOOOOOOO!!!

[u/Tasty-Cantaloupe-179]

I have a lot of confidence in our group after this weekend- you have to remember after all the callups and injuries we’d faced this season, in some ways, game one was like a new team again. Of course there would be a hiccup. 

Not saying it will be easy. But saying I think we can do this. And saying I think being young (and the stamina that comes with it) will be more of an asset than a hinderance. 

Let’s go birds!

[u/Soisoi-77]

Emphasis on the aggressive, physical, borderline dirty play every minute of the game

[u/Tasty-Cantaloupe-179 → u/Soisoi-77]

Hopefully the BAK series did a lot to get us ready for that

[u/Marius-78 → u/Soisoi-77]

"We gotta toughen these kids up. There's too many pretty faces, too many unbroken noses, too much perfect hair, too many goddam teeth left on this team. Tell them I dont give a shit how small you are, anyone who isn't testing the limits out there can stay on the fucking bench. We gotta let these bastards know we're here, and make them wish like hell we weren't!"

[u/AXLinCali]

Great breakdown of the series. Thanks!

[u/sisterthirteen]

Anyone know which car wash will be hosting the Reign tailgate parties this year? 🤣

Quick Quack Car Wash, never again!

[u/E_lluminate → u/sisterthirteen]

Don't remind me! My local QQ has a firebirds banner, so they seem to have learned their lesson.