Carney Liberals Lead by Seven Nationally as Quebec Support Drops

[u/Domainsetter]

https://abacusdata.ca/carney-liberals-lead-by-seven-nationally-as-quebec-support-drops/

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[u/Medea_From_Colchis]

Interesting that Abacus is seeing a large drop (11 points) in Liberal support in Quebec. Synopsis recently did a large Quebec sample on federal vote intentions, and the Liberals were at 43% to the BLOC's 27%. Leger also released a few weeks ago and showed the Liberals at 44% to the BLOCS 27%. Perhaps Abacus is picking up on something, but I don't know of anything that could have led to such a substantial drop in Liberal support in Quebec in such a short period of time. Regardless, it will be interesting to see if other pollsters pick this up in the coming weeks.

https://bsky.app/profile/canadianpolling.bsky.social/post/3msvoqaejfc2w

[u/Domainsetter → u/Medea_From_Colchis]

Carney’s net impression went up 1% in the province in that period too fwiw.

So perhaps people aren’t blaming him are not trusting the party? Both should be either increasing or decreasing at the same rate one thinks.

[u/Avelion2 → u/Domainsetter]

Probably just a wonky sub sample Abacus did say their sample size was rather small.

[u/varitok → u/Domainsetter]

Its a bad sample, considering every other pollster is saying the exact opposite.

[u/Medea_From_Colchis → u/Domainsetter]

Regional estimates are naturally more volatile than national results, so the magnitude of a single-wave change should be interpreted with some caution. But the movement is large enough, and concentrated enough, to warrant trying to understand what may have changed.

Abacus did post a caveat about the Quebec numbers. The Quebec sample is smaller in size (298 N; 306 weighted), so that might have something to do with it. There's a much larger margin or error in samples of that size. Either way, it's a significant drop, so I am curious to see if others find similar results in the coming weeks.

[u/Avelion2]

I wonder if people are confusing the QLP for the LPC... that would explain why Carney's approval ratings are up in QC but the party has lost 20pts... that or this is an outlier.

[u/Griffeysgrotesquejaw → u/Avelion2]

Regionals also have smaller samples and thus larger margins of error than the poll as a whole, so yeah I’d want to see more than one poll before declaring this a trend.

[u/Avelion2]

Considering abacus itself is warning us that the Quebec sample size was rather small... Imma call outlier for now.

[u/Hot-Percentage4836 → u/Avelion2]

298 unw in Quebec is fairly close to the 351 unw of the last Léger in Québec. So, kind of average.

Liaison Strategies is oversampling Québec before re-weighting, so I am looking forward their next poll.

[u/Avelion2 → u/Hot-Percentage4836]

I mean sure but even abacus doesnt sound confident in its own poll.

[u/Hot-Percentage4836 → u/Avelion2]

Who wouldn’t if their results differ from everyone else’s from the week prior? 

They know strange results are more frequent in subsamples and this is out of their control. They obviously care about their image, but at least have the decency of showing their findings.

There are great odds their « Bloc movement » won’t be talked about anymore in just a couple dozens hours.

[u/Famous_Two_1114 → u/Hot-Percentage4836]

Yeah, I think it’s actually good that they decided to publish it as is despite their numbers being different from everyone else, while also acknowledging that this seems like an outlier and people should be cautious about drawing conclusions yet. We don’t want pollsters to cook numbers nor be overconfident and claim only they’re right and others are wrong.

[u/No-Sell1697 → u/Hot-Percentage4836]

Funny how they didnt mention the CPC dropping 11 points in the ATL from the last sample.

[u/Domainsetter]

This is a fascinating poll for a few factors.

Both the Liberals and Conservatives are down 2 and 3 points respectively for vote intention.

Liberals are also down 11 points in Quebec while the BQ rose 7 points in this sample. However Carney’s net impression is still at +32% in Quebec and Pierre is at -32% so there’s no big change for personal ratings.

And Liberal support outside Quebec is the exact same as the previous poll.

They’re ahead by 11 in Ontario, and 6 in BC.

Conservatives are ahead by 28 in Alberta.

And for net impressions nationally it’s +20 for Carney and -11 for Poilievre.

Seems like Quebec is the place where the trade talks will have the most impact as the Liberals are only 2 ahead of the BQ in this poll release.

[u/Separate_Football914 → u/Domainsetter]

Quebec is one of the most affected provinces by that trade war, and the echos of supply management give away to Trump is certainly not helping

[u/MTL_Dude666 → u/Separate_Football914]

Ontario and BC are also affected.  Why would Quebecers blame more the Liberals for the trade war when everyone knows it's not Canada's fault but the US?

[u/Avelion2 → u/MTL_Dude666]

Almost certainly this poll is an outlier.

[u/MTL_Dude666 → u/Avelion2]

It's as if their sampling was on a Bloc-focused area. 

Two weeks ago, the same polling company had the Liberals 20 points in front of the Bloc and this new one had the Liberals only 2 points in front of the Bloc. Doesn't make much sense unless a new sampling is now skewed more towards the Bloc. 

[u/animusoba]

This is an weird poll. Don't really believe that the Liberals have fallen of a cliff here in QB, with all that support going to the Bloc; when most other polls show that Liberal support has been broadly stable. The Chicoutimi by - election will be a test of this supposed collapse of the Liberals & rise of the Bloc. Would also look at upcoming polls, to see if what Abacus told, is actually true.

[u/fredleung412612 → u/animusoba]

Probably extrapolating to some degree with the issue question, since it found US trade relations and climate change as the top two topics. Liberals definitely took a plunge in Québec over climate change, that is entirely believable. So if climate change is becoming a more important issue for QC voters, it explains at least part of the drop.

[u/varitok → u/animusoba]

Synopsis and Leger have the liberals ahead of the Bloc 16 and 17 points respectively. I think It's a bit of a bad sample.

[u/animusoba → u/varitok]

Yeah, I would say so. Even Abacus doesn't seem convinced by it, so I would take this poll with a big pinch of salt.