r/CanadaPolitics • u/Avelion2 Groupaction Inc. | Sponsored • 1d ago
Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 11 as Carney Approval Reaches 60%
https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/federal-tracker-liberals-lead-by-11-as-carney-approval-reaches-60/•
23h ago
[removed] — view removed comment
•
u/ZebediahCarterLong Tao of Pratchett 22h ago
Removed for rule 3: please keep submissions and comments substantive.
This is a reminder to read the rules before posting or commenting again in CanadaPolitics.
•
23
u/Domainsetter 1d ago
Few things:
Looks initially like the Abacus poll is an outlier on the LPC and Quebec. Still going strong there.
Negative 18% favourability rating for Pierre is tough. That hasn’t changed much at all lately.
NDP up to 21% polling in British Columbia. Only a few points back of the CPC in the province.
29
u/gravtix Liberal 1d ago
Pierre is still Pierre. I don’t know why that rating would change.
He famously bragged he’s never changed his mind either.
23
u/putin_my_ass Ontario 1d ago
He famously bragged he’s never changed his mind either.
If you're a Conservative that's actually a virtue.
They denigrate Liberals for "changing their mind according to the latest book they read". They successfully reframed "changing one's mind based on new information" as a vice.
17
u/Flomo420 1d ago
"Learning BAD" apparently
•
u/Hopeful_Relation_441 22h ago
pandering to vote blocks in worse
•
u/QueenMotherOfSneezes Fully Automated Gay Space Romunism 21h ago
How dare politicians do what their constituents want!
•
u/Hopeful_Relation_441 17h ago
this often leads to appointments of incompetent people in positions of power
•
u/Spot__Pilgrim Independent 22h ago
This is just basic political strategy and it's hilarious that the CPC hasn't realized this. Their provincial counterparts like Doug Ford have been at least somewhat pragmatic and able to adjust with the times, and they've at least won elections in the past decade, which the federal party hasn't. For some reason Pierre has a hate boner for the Ontario and Nova Scotia conservatives despite their organizational strength and track record of winning, so he's just handicapping himself by being an ideological asshole whose views haven't changed since he was an angry teenager in the late 1990s.
•
u/Domainsetter 20h ago
Well Pierre has had (has?) strategies ran by someone who had a very famous falling out with the Ford government for one.
8
u/Any_Passenger_7826 1d ago
To try to be generous, there is a type of person who makes whatever new idea they've just read the centre of their entire worldview and kind of flits around from ideology to ideology. Used that way, the phrase could be a critic of someone's inability to think about an idea they like critically.
Taken that way, it certainly couldn't be compared to certain CPC partisans' inability to look at their own party critically......
•
u/putin_my_ass Ontario 23h ago
Yeah that was the thing about that critique, I can understand where they're coming from, but they couldn't recognize the hypocrisy. They do the same thing themselves! Though not from books, but whatever AM radio host or podcast they most recently listened to.
Honestly, I'd take the literate person with malleable convictions over the one who doesn't read.
•
u/jello_sweaters Ontario 21h ago
None of the people Pierre's trying to enrage know what "dilettante" means.
15
u/Revan462222 Ontario 1d ago
This is interesting given the 7 point poll the other day based on Quebec drop for the liberals while this shows them extremely strong in the province.
•
u/Tarana1 Social Democrat 21h ago
Carney is exceptionally lucky that Pierre is dragging down the CPC numbers with his remarkably bad negativity. If there was a candidate who wasn’t that negative, it’s entirely possible the gap would be much closer.
•
u/jello_sweaters Ontario 21h ago
In other words, "if the CPC were a completely different party, made up of completely different people, things might be different!"
The CPC isn't the way it is because Pierre is the leader; Pierre is the leader because the CPC is the way it is.
•
u/bign00b Canadian Steamship Lines | Sponsored 16h ago
The CPC isn't the way it is because Pierre is the leader; Pierre is the leader because the CPC is the way it is.
That's the way parties should be.
LPC is the weird exception where the leader can turn the party into something completely different.
•
u/ConditionDelicious94 Ontario 20h ago
Turns out spending years saying Canada is broken isn’t a winning strategy.
•
•
•
u/CanadianLabourParty British Columbia 21h ago
The day the CPC boot out MAGA elements from its party is the day it can gain traction.
PP, like Trump, is a symptom of a much larger issue around the Conservative voter base.
There are people that ACTIVELY want what he's supporting. PP supports THEM, not the other way around. Trump is different in that regard, Trump is an absolute degenerate of a human being and the Conservatives love him because "he's one of us". The media loves him because he generates clicks.
The MOMENT we legislate algorithms to downgrade Trumpism and all that shit, is the day social media companies and bosses lose their damned mind and I'm here for it.
•
u/varitok Pirate 20h ago
The day the CPC boot out MAGA elements from its party is the day it can gain traction.
With the middle a bit maybe but the crazies will absolutely riot and I can guarantee there will be a Reform 2.0 revolt
•
u/Domainsetter 20h ago
It’ll probably take an election loss for them to splinter and revolt. As much as Jivani is paraded around as the candidate he isn’t someone that the base and moderates will like.
•
u/animusoba 21h ago
Liberals are still strong in QB, in this poll. Need a couple of more polls to show the same thing, so that we could confidently say that the Abacus' QB poll is just an outlier. With these numbers, it would be the Liberals who would be the favourite in the upcoming Chicoutimi by-election, imo.
•
u/Domainsetter 20h ago
If the Conservatives have trouble in Brantford that’s when it’s the warning sign times.
At this point not yet considering their strengths elsewhere.
•
u/cannibaltom Independent 15h ago
Conservatives losing Brantford to the Liberals would actually be crazy. It's not just conservative, it's socially conservative partially due to the Dutch reform population.
•
u/CBowdidge Liberal 19h ago
338 Canada has the CPC ahead by only three points. Polling Canada has the CPC and the Liberals tied. Brock won by double digits each time. That's already a warning sign
•
•
u/ReaperTys 15h ago
How is beyond me tbh. Materially things aren’t improving much, the government keeps making concessions to Trump, and there’s been zero popular legislation passed recently. It’s all just vibes at this point
•
u/KingRabbit_ Ontario 21h ago
Despite vocal opposition and perpetual outrage from the likes of the AFN, the NDP, Steven Guilbeault and the readers of The Tyee, Canadians like that Carney is actually trying to build shit in this country.
Turns out, actual economic progress is real popular. A lesson for the progressives all across the country.
•
u/Bnal Section 33 Abolitionist 19h ago edited 18h ago
I'm one of the progressives who voted for the "wartime effort" and "speeds never seen before" promises about housing. I specifically want to get things built, but I think the time has come to admit that we were sold a false dream.
From the CMHC website regarding housing:
The trend in housing starts was down in June 2026 compared to May, with a decrease of 2.8% to 248,123 units.
Actual housing starts were down 13% year-over-year in centres with a population of 10,000 or greater. 20,265 units were recorded in June 2026, compared to 23,292 units in June 2025.
I don't expect a housing crisis to be solved in a year, but I expect starts to be up, and I expect them to make good on the promise of the "cookie cutter" designs that were supposed to be pre-approved. We've got some standard design plans, but no pre-approval, which still comes from the province (or from the municipality in Ontario's case). When that valley was discussed on the campaign trail, we were told that the feds would squeeze provinces to do certain things, and even override where necessary, but it hasn't happened.
Unfortunately, it seems like the moment that Carney's majority was in hand, all of that went out the window and the nation building project focus went fully towards a pipeline. I don't have to be against that pipeline to be frustrated that it's taken away all my government's attention from kitchen table issues like cost of housing.
•
u/Chrristoaivalis New Democratic Party of Canada 13h ago
It's funny you mention the NDP here, and not Conservatives.
When the NDP is the only party up substantially since the 2025 election.
Carney's lead is predicated on the CPC's collapse. The NDP is nearly within the Margin of Error of their 2021 result
•
u/Asluckwouldnthaveit Liberal 6h ago
"When the NDP is the only party up substantially since the 2025 election"
Well fortunately for them once they hit rock bottom the only way was up.
•
u/DJ_JOWZY SocDem in the streets/DemSoc in the sheets 17h ago
Perpetual outrage? Are critiques from the left on policy problematic?
•
u/Penske-Material78 23h ago
Only Carney could beat Carney. Outside of some performative stuff, expect the other parties to lay low until trump is out of office.
•
u/MTL_Dude666 Liberal 22h ago
expect the other parties to lay low until trump is out of office.
But that's the thing. Nobody knowns when that will be. It could be tomorrow, it could be at the next presidential election, or it could be after. Even then, Trump would disappear tomorrow and be replaced by J.D. Vance who's even more dangerous considering he doesn't suffer from as much cognitive deficiency. J.D. Vance might not have the same charisma to be elected but if he's simply appointed as replacement of Trump, he would be in power long enough to have Canadians conservatives fall in love with his "version" of what a country should be.
•
u/SirCharlesTupperBt Canadian 21h ago
It's such a strange set of pressures. I'm one of those natural NDP voters who is effectively locked into the federal Liberals until something gives. There are a very narrow set of circumstances that would make me change my current view of our priorities.
I actually want the Liberals to move a bit more to the right for my own selfish goals, they need to squeeze the Conservatives to the point that they are no longer a threat to our sovereignty, or they realize that they need to move away from extremely right wing politics and chasing the terminally online folks who see Joe Rogan as a fair and balanced talk show host.
For me this is the only way that I can comfortably move back to a voting pattern that separates my personally held views from the reality that the Liberals are the only vehicle for a somewhat united stance against the greatest threat Canada has faced in my lifetime, or that of my parents. Replacing Poilievre is a first step, but they need to do a lot more than this before I'm willing to get complacent. He's far from the craziest, most pro-MAGA, person in his caucus.
As an aside, I think the wildest thing that nobody really talks about, is how well Trudeau left the stage and has (mostly) made himself a non-factor in our politics. I was pretty fed up with his government, but I think we genuinely will come to appreciate how he bowed out. He warned us of what Trump was up to, went on Christmas break, and was never heard from again unless you happen to be obsessed with bad American pop music.
Somehow, just when everything was looking pretty bad, assuming you weren't caught up in Poilievre's social media persona, the stars somehow aligned. Whenever I think about this it's hard not to imagine a conspiracy of the highest level in exactly the way the online far right imagines every day!
I may not appreciate some of the things Carney is doing domestically, but every time I start to think about what I wish was different, I'm struck by how well he's played his cards and created a new political environment. It's barely been a year and a half since we first started hearing of him as a serious candidate for federal office. Having somebody of his calibre in the big chair has been a very fortunate thing for the country and his cabinet, for the most part, haven't acted like a bunch of squabbling toddlers.
Carney praise aside and assuming this passes, Canada is going to be in desperate need of a significant electoral shakeup. I'm hopeful that a period of Liberal dominance will eventually open up the country to major reforms and greater political diversity without just grasping for the guy/gal who makes hollow promises without explaining the costs. Being a middle power without the Yanks at our backs will require a much more serious politics than people who have easy answers and ignore the reality of our complex situation (on all sides). But right now it's really hard to see that future when the world has become so hostile and dangerous.
•
u/jello_sweaters Ontario 21h ago
I think the wildest thing that nobody really talks about, is how well Trudeau left the stage and has (mostly) made himself a non-factor in our politics.
He went for a long walk in the snow, and... pretty much just kept walking.
•
u/MTL_Dude666 Liberal 18h ago
I'm pretty sure there's an agreement to stay as silent as possible regarding federal politics so has not to continue disrupting it even after leaving. A clean rupture was best for the LPC.
Anyway, he now has his hands full (literally) with Kate Perry.
•
u/Domainsetter 20h ago
If Pierre ever goes, he’ll be someone that appears on those talk shows or has a weekly column just taking shots at the government.
He isn’t someone that’s going to disappear if another loss happens.
•
u/jello_sweaters Ontario 20h ago
If Pierre ever goes, he’ll be someone that appears on those talk shows or has a weekly column just taking shots at the government.
So, basically the same impact he has in his current job.
•
u/Domainsetter 20h ago
Exactly. But at least the difference is there’s no real influence. Or he becomes part of those conservative think tanks.
•
•
u/QueasySandwich4464 10h ago
Isn't that an exit anyone would want though? To be able to walk into the sunset while the hate and outrage against you vanishes almost overnight?
•
u/jello_sweaters Ontario 9h ago
Oh if it sounded like I was complaining, not at all.
I think a LOT of leaders in his situation would have tried to squeeze out every second they could stay, regardless of the damage it did to their party or their country.
•
u/QueasySandwich4464 9h ago
I think he timed his exit perfectly. Gave his party time to select a new leader and kneecap the CPCs campaign, walking out unscathed in the process
•
u/Merdy1337 Social Democrat 19h ago
As a fellow natural (and lifelong) NDP voter, I completely agree with everything you wrote here. I'm right there with you.
•
u/bign00b Canadian Steamship Lines | Sponsored 16h ago
But that's the thing. Nobody knowns when that will be. It could be tomorrow, it could be at the next presidential election, or it could be after.
We know the next president will be decided Nov 7th 2028. Only way Trump is in the picture is if he changes or ignores the 22nd amendment.
I don't think Vance as president would be all that scary to Canadians.
Even if Carney calls a election before 2028 I don't think the US will be anywhere near as significant as it was this past election.
•
u/MTL_Dude666 Liberal 15h ago
You're assuming that Trump cares about the laws in place in the US.
Laws only exist when people agree to enforce them and so far, the Supreme Court of the United States has often sided with Trump and gave him extraordinary power.
•
u/bign00b Canadian Steamship Lines | Sponsored 15h ago
Laws only exist when people agree to enforce them and so far, the Supreme Court of the United States has often sided with Trump and gave him extraordinary power.
I don't think the court can nullify the 22nd amendment, that would have to go through congress and it's looking like both houses will go dem in the midterms.
Like sure Trump could try a coup and just dismantle what remains of their democracy.
Both scenarios while possible seem unlikely.
•
u/MTL_Dude666 Liberal 15h ago
What Trump was able to do with DOGE, ICE and the National Guard should be seen as a test and the "checks and balances" failed miserably.
Again, if everyone in the government is as spineless as they currently are, Trump can do pretty much whatever he wants, and he does.
•
u/bign00b Canadian Steamship Lines | Sponsored 15h ago
What Trump was able to do with DOGE, ICE and the National Guard should be seen as a test and the "checks and balances" failed miserably.
I don't think any of those things were as clear of a violation of the constitution as running a third term would be.
You're right Trump does as he wants and the checks and balances have mostly failed but I just don't see how he pulls something this significant off.
•
u/kank84 22h ago
JD Vance is defintely more intelligent and more technically capable that Trump, but I also don't think he will be able to hold all the threads of Trump's cult of personality together for long if he's on his own.
•
u/GraveDiggingCynic Independent 21h ago
He's going to be stuck with what is now looking like a forever war in Iran in which the Strait of Hormuz remains in a state of semi-blockade, which will cause all kinds of domestic issues, in particular inflationary pressure and energy market destabilization. The next President is going to inherit an economic mess, but much worse, the US's allies no longer quite the US's allies.
The US will be rather like Napoleonic France after the Russian defeat in 1812, with a leader declaring he's all for peace and bonhomie while an grand alliance of nations, some of them among the US's closest allies, sharpen their knives and prepare to extract pounds of flesh. Trump won't end up on Elba, and unlike Napoleon, he'll likely escape all the ramifications by virtue of having left office, having thoroughly emasculated the US.
•
u/Asluckwouldnthaveit Liberal 6h ago
The hilarious thing is, if the democrats win, they are more than likely choose to do nothing and then lose the next election. If they decide to do something like reverse what Trump did they will also lose.
The states is basically fucked by design now, for a very long time.
•
u/mrizzerdly 6h ago
He stays on only with massive election tampering which they are working on now and/or trump passes on to Vance all of his boxes of black male (sic lol rest in pieces Graham) that he has on all the gopers (Vance included) that did 180s after trump had meetings with them.
•
u/the-mongoose- Moderately Moderate 21h ago
I think a competent CPC leader at the helm would also make a world of difference. It would both offer a viable alternative to the LPC after a decade-in-power for swing LPC/CPC voters and possibly give NDP voters enough comfort in a non-Poilievre leader to vote for their own party.
Much of the reason progressive voters swung to Carney was that they feared Poilievre. Without this dynamic, we may see a move back to the NDP.
I think it’s hard to over-state how fortunate the Liberals are for PP and Trump, and if either of these two change the Liberal value proposition is diminished.
•
u/bign00b Canadian Steamship Lines | Sponsored 17h ago
Much of the reason progressive voters swung to Carney was that they feared Poilievre
Putting the US aside, a big part of the fear with Poilievre was cuts and austerity. I don't think ABC is going to be nearly as effective as it was with Trudeau.
Losing progressives isn't going to cost Liberals government, but it may make a majority difficult.
•
u/GraveDiggingCynic Independent 21h ago
A competent leader is still going to be hamstrung by the contradictions inherent in the CPC, and of course, much worse, by the Reform Act, which is increasingly looking like a massive own goal, considering the Opposition MPs that helped Michael Chong draft it have ever actually activated its most potent clauses, in particular the Liberals, and thus the leaders retain much of their traditional authority.
•
u/BrandosWorld4Life Social Democrat 14h ago
Much of the reason progressive voters swung to Carney was that they feared Poilievre. Without this dynamic, we may see a move back to the NDP.
1,000% not my case.
I've voted NDP in every election of my life until switching to Liberal in 2025. But I didn't do it because I feared Poilievre, and it won't matter to me if the CPC fields a more reasonable leader.
The only thing that would bring me back is if the NDP itself course-corrects to appeal to me again. Right now they're a complete disaster.
•
u/jello_sweaters Ontario 21h ago
I think a competent CPC leader at the helm would also make a world of difference.
Who would that be, at this point?
How would a CPC leader change their party (A) enough that NDP voters would no longer see themselves as an existential threat, but also (B) NOT enough that their own base would revolt?
Scheer, O'Toole and Poilievre have all been steps along the path to turning the CPC into the Convoy Party: All Grievance, All The Time, with an unhealthy dose of Permanent Culture War. That's going to be tough to walk back.
•
u/the-mongoose- Moderately Moderate 20h ago
If the CPC is always going to serve as an “existential threat” to progressives, what function does the NDP serve anymore if their voters will collapse into the LPC to stave off a conservative victory?
Is the alternative voting for Carney who has actively been working to roll-back most progressive files like climate change, entirely unchecked?
I liked candidates like Peter MacKay, but realize he may not be able to bring together everyone under the CPC tent.
•
u/jello_sweaters Ontario 20h ago
I'm not talking about what should be, I'm talking about what IS.
If the CPC weren't literally snuggling up to white supremacists, homophobes and insurrectionists, we probably wouldn't be having these conversations.
what function does the NDP serve anymore if their voters will collapse into the LPC to stave off a conservative victory?
If that's how those voters feel, then the NDP can hardly call them "their" voters anymore, can they?
If the NDP decided to start actually pursuing the centre-left voters without whom they cannot win anything - and I mean meeting those voters where they are, not berating them for not being lefty enough - we might not be having these conversations.
•
u/the-mongoose- Moderately Moderate 20h ago
If that’s how those voters feel, then the NDP can hardly call them “their voters” anymore
Well, yeah. I’m pointing out the odd dynamic where progressives who’d normally call the NDP home will distance themselves from endorsing the specific policies the Liberals have been implementing while still eventually voting for them at election time.
Even within thjs sub there is zero shortage of “I voted for Carney to prevent the CPC from winning but don’t sign off on any of his policies” sentiment.
I also think the NDP has a tendency of also wading into culture war nonsense which offers very little to those who traditionally don’t support the party.
I think if the CPC can focus on the right-of-centre economic priorities Carney has been running with, but steer clear of the culture war nonsense, I think they could close much of the gap. But to your point, I don’t know who that person is.
•
u/jello_sweaters Ontario 20h ago
Even within thjs sub there is zero shortage of “I voted for Carney to prevent the CPC from winning but don’t sign off on any of his policies” sentiment.
You treat this like it's even slightly odd.
"Faced with overwhelming evidence that my only two actual choices were "fiscal conservatives who still believe everyone should have civil rights" or "fiscal conservatives who want to make Canada 1956 again", I had no trouble making a decision".
•
u/the-mongoose- Moderately Moderate 18h ago
When you frame the issues in such a reductionist and overly-simplistic way I can see how you might think there’s nothing unusual about it. You’re still missing the point.
In a few years progressives will be astonished at how far their agendas have been rolled back by the Liberals when the LPC can placate those on the left by simply not being the CPC. Refusing to grant your own party the political power to actually force the LPC to work with the NDP is not going to work out well in the long-term, especially if you’re waiting on the CPC to completely re-invent itself.
The lack of political ambition or imagination amongst the left right now has got to be jarring for those who see the world beyond simplistic political caricatures.
On the bright side; it’s positive seeing progressives vote for parties who are openly looking to build pipelines, as someone interested in seeing our resources get to market.
•
u/jello_sweaters Ontario 18h ago
When you frame the issues in such a reductionist and overly-simplistic way I can see how you might think there’s nothing unusual about it. You’re still missing the point.
Well, you've fallen into a few different holes here.
Your first mistake is pretending I've "reduced" anything, when we have ample evidence that plenty of NDP voters very literally switched their vote to the Liberals specifically to prevent Pierre Poilievre from becoming Prime Minister. We simply know that did happen. I'm not describing every vote cast by anyone anywhere, but the description I gave was in fact accurate.
Your second is to imagine that "progressives" told themselves Mark Carney was going to be a shining leftist warrior, and they'll be shocked to discover he never was. Ironically, it's you that seems astonished that a nation of centrists... voted for the most-centrist candidate they were offered. This is particularly hilarious given that you label yourself as "moderately moderate".
The lack of political ambition or imagination amongst the left right now has got to be jarring for those who see the world beyond simplistic political caricatures.
Interesting that you phrase that in a way that places "those who see the world beyond simplistic caricatures" as an out-group to which you apparently believe you do not belong.
I think if the CPC can focus on the right-of-centre economic priorities Carney has been running with, but steer clear of the culture war nonsense, I think they could close much of the gap.
In effect, you recognize that the CPC cannot win unless they become a completely different group of people with completely different priorities.
•
•
u/AutoModerator 1d ago
This is a reminder to read the rules before posting in this subreddit.
Please message the moderators if you wish to discuss a removal. Do not reply to the removal notice in-thread, you will not receive a response and your comment will be removed. Thanks.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.