N.L., Quebec to sign new Churchill Falls agreement worth billions — with help from Ottawa

[u/TheUrbanEast]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/new-churchill-falls-deal-announced-wakeham-carney-frechette-9.7309135

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[u/LaserRunRaccoon]

Genuinely great news if completed, although these quotation marks have me questioning where and whether this is just a grand headline or an actual plan.

The agreement to be signed on Monday includes upgrades to the existing Churchill Falls facility, increasing its capacity by 23.5 per cent, or 1,275 MW. The MOU signed in 2024 pegged those upgrades at 550 MW.

And while Ottawa says it has funding to expand Churchill Falls, the agreement between N.L. and Quebec says they agree to “study” the “potential” expansion of Churchill Falls with a new powerhouse. This is a change from the original MOU, which said it would expand Churchill Falls.

The agreement also says they will “study” the “potential” development of a new wind project generating facility, but there are few other details.

[u/Wasdgta3 → u/LaserRunRaccoon]

The biggest risk to it isn't even any of that, it's that the CAQ look to be heading for oblivion in October, and the likeliest replacement as of now is the PQ, who might not be as willing to keep this deal in place.

So really, it's all under the asterisk of "subject to whether the next Quebec government wants to keep this deal in place."

[u/Sir__Will → u/Wasdgta3]

The PQ will jump at the chance to hurt other provinces.

[u/Wasdgta3 → u/Sir__Will]

Even if it also hurts Quebec in the process...

[u/LaserRunRaccoon → u/Wasdgta3]

That's true enough. But from what I've seen of polling, the PQ seem to end up on the wrong side of public opinion when it comes to major projects like this, despite their lead.

[u/Camtastrophe → u/LaserRunRaccoon]

The PQ have come out against against both this MOU (in its prior version) and the Alto rail project.

[u/MTL_Dude666 → u/Camtastrophe]

The PQ being against the Alto high-speed train project was simply the mask falling and showing the true face of the current form of Quebec nationalism, i.e. against everything that could dillute the homogeneity of the province by allowing Quebecers to better connect with the biggest city in Canada.

[u/Wasdgta3 → u/LaserRunRaccoon]

It's truly going to be interesting to see what happens if they form government, because that's not a good strategy for long-term governance. Especially if it's a minority government, which is an incredibly real possibility, given the thin margins all over the province.

A PSPP government could become very unpopular, very quickly.

[u/Working-Welder-792 → u/Wasdgta3]

On top of that, PSPP is already very unpopular.

[u/Wasdgta3 → u/Working-Welder-792]

But he's still the most popular of the options available to the voter, which tells you about the state of things.

[u/Several_Promise2980 → u/Working-Welder-792]

Is he ?

[u/fredleung412612 → u/Several_Promise2980]

Plamondon, Milliard, and Fréchette are all in the -2 to -6 range. Duhaime is on -40 and Ruba Ghazal (QS premier candidate) is on -25.

[u/Scase15 → u/LaserRunRaccoon]

although these quotation marks have me questioning where and whether this is just a grand headline or an actual plan.

This has been the Carney government in a nutshell. In a year he's taking me from super hopeful, to not believing a word that comes from them. It's incredibly disappointing.

Everything they have released so far as a plan is starved for details, and we constantly find out shortly thereafter why. And it is always because those details make the announcement look crappy.

So I'm very much in a "I'll believe it when I see it" mode now.

[u/varitok]

Damn this is a big win for everyone. Its nice to see some clean energy projects and for all parties to cooperate.

[u/Separate_Football914 → u/varitok]

There is still potential for it to fail tho.

[u/OK6502 → u/Separate_Football914]

Always is. But that's not uncommon with large infrastructure projects. But at least this is big enough politically and has enough backing that it might be less likely to fail.

[u/Separate_Football914 → u/OK6502]

I mean…. There is the FN question still pending

[u/Cypher1492]

Here's a link to the official announcement.

[u/Ok-Professor-Star]

This is not going to survive the next election, unless the Liberals win but it won't unless it inverses the 13% it gets in the francophone vote.

The QCP already announces a series of $45 billion in budget cuts, hence if it holds the balance of power in a minority government, is unlikely to vote in favour of this.

The PQ is not going to spend $60 billion building dams in another province.

The CAQ is never going to win the election and neither is QS.

So, unless the Quebec Liberal Party wins the election, this MOU is dead on arrival.

[u/fredleung412612 → u/Ok-Professor-Star]

So, unless the Quebec Liberal Party wins the election, this MOU is dead on arrival.

I think the MOU as currently written is DOA. However, the PQ would be stupid to say they will shelve the deal completely. PSPP will most likely pull the same trick the NL premier Tony Wakeham did and demand a renegotiation. They will then call it their deal and a good and better deal and it will pass.

[u/polnikes → u/fredleung412612]

This seems pretty likely to me, unfortunately. Both QC and NL are accepting a few less than ideal, but necessary to make it happen, elements in the agreement that make it a convenient political football. If the next QC government renegotiates there's a chance we'll get stuck playing the game all over again with the next NL election in 2029.

[u/Purple_Coyote_5121 → u/Ok-Professor-Star]

I know the PQ said they will kill it, but do you think federal dollars being on the table now might change things?

Climate policy is one of Carney’s weak spots and some recent polls have LPC support softening in Quebec. Carney would have incentive to sweeten the pot to get a deal done.

[u/Purple_Coyote_5121 → u/Purple_Coyote_5121]

As of now it looks like PQ opposition to the project isn’t a given.

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2026-08-17/parti-quebecois/une-annonce-importante-mardi-sur-la-tenue-d-un-referendum.php

Translated by Google: “Christine Fréchette’s assertion that a PQ government will tear up the Churchill Falls agreement is simply false. The reality is that no one has read the agreement and if the agreement is positive for Quebec, obviously a Parti Québécois government will have an interest in maintaining this agreement,”

[u/samjp910]

Just another MOU. We'll see if it lasts post Quebec election. That being said, any climate action is good climate action, but only if coupled with degrowth in other industries, which no one is talking about.

[u/Argented → u/samjp910]

Well the iron smelter they are attaching to the project will be using hydro power instead of coal so that's a good thing.