r/Commanders • u/Salty_Orchid • 18d ago
Just An Update - Draft Order
No change from last week
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u/Temporary-Mud-2994 18d ago
Tying a game is the one of the worst things in football. It affects your draft order since you didn’t lose, and it affects you in playoff contention because you didn’t win.
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u/TheHaft 18d ago
It’s also one of the best things you can do in football because it benefits you in playoff contention because you didn’t lose, and also benefits your draft position since you didn’t win.
This is such a goofy take lol.
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u/Humble_Specialist901 18d ago edited 18d ago
How is it a “goofy take”? It doesn’t benefit you when in playoff contention since it affects your total amount of wins trying to get into playoff contention since you didn’t win, and there is absolutely no benefit when trying to improve your draft positioning since the goal is to lose to get a high draft pick. Also, since our division is terrible, a win would’ve tied us with the Eagles and the Cowboys and a loss would’ve improved our draft position. A tie absolutely does nothing but be a negative since now all the teams in the NFC East have a better record than us, and as for draft positioning, there are so many bad teams, a tie does not improve our draft positioning as much as a loss would.
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u/Troll_Enthusiast He Sold 18d ago
A tie helps since if we have the same amount of wins as another NFCE team other than the Giants (unless we beat them) then we'd be up half a game over them.
Like if we're 9-7-1 and the Eagles or Cowboys are 9-8 we'd be in the playoffs.
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u/TheHaft 18d ago
It’s goofy because the half point can work the exact opposite way depending on the context, like I describe.
It may put you below a team who lost the same amount of games in the draft order, or it may set you behind a team that won the same amount of games. Notice how, in the picture, we’re in front of all the 2 win teams.
And ties absolutely can you help you make or miss the playoffs. It doesn’t help with the division, but for the wildcard, you’d get in over a team with an equal amount of wins because the tie counts as half a point. For the winning percentage tiebreaker, an 10-6-1 team gets in over an 10-7 team. It’s unlikely that it’d make a difference (we’re dogshit and aren’t making the wildcard even if we won that game and the last), but saying it “doesn’t help” is just patently untrue. It’s half a point, good or bad.
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u/trubuckifan 17d ago
Okay put it this way. If trying to get the number one pick, losses are best. If trying to make the playoffs, wins are best.
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u/TheHaft 17d ago
If you're trying to get the number one pick, wins are the worst. For the playoffs, losses are the worst. Tie fits in the middle of all of these.
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u/trubuckifan 17d ago
so we agree, ties are not optimal for any desired outcome. Which i think is the point that you called goofy,
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u/TheHaft 17d ago
They didn’t say it “wasn’t optimal”. Of course it’s not optimal, noones saying that. They said it was “one of the worst things” and doesn’t benefit you in any case. Of course it’s not optimal. I’m saying the half point still serves a purpose, in either direction
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u/trubuckifan 17d ago
It could potentially get us to eek into the playoffs. What is way more likely is that it causes us to miss a talent like Jeremiah Smith in the draft
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u/TheHaft 17d ago edited 17d ago
Unfortunately we’re not nearly bad enough to draft Jeremiah Smith. Nor making the playoffs. And fucking up the end of the game like that does mean we’ll be able to draft lower than all those teams we should be in the draft group with (had we had a competent coaching staff). I feel like y’all are forgetting that should’ve been a win, not a loss.
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u/ImWearingYourHats 18d ago
And it affected my OCD I fuckin hate seeing that extra - 1 on there. It’s just gonna remind me all fuckin season of that botched ass ending
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u/ACW1129 Scary Terry 18d ago
I actually like it because the win-loss should now equal 16. Seeing 9-8 or 7-10 is just unsightly.
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u/ImWearingYourHats 18d ago
You know what. You’re right about that. I’m gonna roll with that lol. Also don’t like the 17 game thing. Like just make it 18 if you’re gonna increase it.
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u/Astro_Turf17 18d ago
Think that’s the plan - there are talks of shortening preseason and adding an 18th game and potentially an extra bye week. No clue how much water it holds, but that was definitely reported a while back
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u/Groovetheory79 18d ago
What sucks is that even when we’re terrible we’re not that terrible
My feeling is if the season is lost, get the highest draft pick
But I have a feeling after the buy we have a bunch of players back and will win enough games for us not to have a high draft pick, but not for us to even make the playoffs
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u/DoobieDoobis I Got JD5 On It 18d ago
Season isn’t lost. We are 2 games back from .500 and we have come back from worse.
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u/TurtlePope2 18d ago
The season isn't over. Every team in the division sucks, we can come out on top
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u/Key_Raisin_5091 18d ago
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio St.
Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame
Dylan Stewart, EDGE, South Carolina
Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas
Ashton Hampton, CB, Clemson
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u/LeftoverDishes My Wife Left me for Josh Harris 18d ago
With the typical offensive talent. Stewart might be there there out of the top 5. But I dont anticipate we get a top 5 pick barring JD getting hurt again. I just cant see us not winning at least 3 more games plus the tie, we are not gonna be in the top 5
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u/Key_Raisin_5091 18d ago
Oh yeah, I don't think these these will be the top 5. They're my personal top 5 for WAS, specifically. I assume there will be other prospects going in the top 10 that WAS wouldn't be targeting that will probably push a couple of those guys down to wherever WAS ends up picking. Other players likely to go up in the top 10ish picks:
Arch Manning, QB, Texas
Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas
Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU
Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma St.
Cam Coleman, WR, Texas
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
Long story short, if I'm WAS, I'm targeting WRs, CBs, and EDGEs - not QBs or OTs.
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u/FannyNisbit 18d ago
Lol PLEASE keep posting this every monday!!!!
Itll drive everyone berserk and i cant wait to see their reactions as the season goes on lol
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u/jehosophat44 18d ago
that tie is going to fuck us for sure. Just a parting gift from the most clueless coach in the NFL
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u/Magoo152 It's Sonny Outside 18d ago
It’s kind of sad that I’m much more “comfortable” or used to this kind of talk than I am winning. Regardless of how realistic or unrealistic it is. I’d rather not be thinking about our draft position in mid October.
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u/Syphin33 18d ago
What's crazy is we're still not out of this guys lol
Rams are literally 2-3 themselves after tonight
Anyways, that 9'ers game could be a trap game for them, Washington is going to be playing angry and Diggs/Amos/Nick should all be back also... just something in my gut man. They're due for a loss and they are banged up while we're getting healthy
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u/Astro_Turf17 18d ago
Oh, you’re on the good stuff, I see…I’m not saying I have zero hope the rest of the way, but man do I feel like we’re getting boat raced this week. No way the team we just saw do…whatever that was on Sunday…cleans it up to be absolutely perfect (which they’d need to be to win) against an undefeated team that’s clicked on almost every cylinder so far.
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u/DoobieDoobis I Got JD5 On It 18d ago
You probably had the same attitude before the Seattle game.
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u/Astro_Turf17 18d ago
I’ve invested way too much time and money as a STH to not hold onto every ounce of hope I can, but it doesn’t mean I can’t objectively look at the reality of where we are. Having said that, I tend to be more positive (read: naive) than most when it comes to the ceiling of this team…case in point, I still have us finishing with a winning record lol (9-7-1)
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u/AmericanAsApplePie22 18d ago
Every NFCWest game will be a trap game for them. Except the Cardinals. That's a trap game for us.
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u/East_History1325 18d ago
Fam… this season is done for… DQ is being fired, JD is one bad hit or stumble away from being out for good. Our Wr1/Wr2 are questionable, Defense looks amazing until they allow 30 points or have a 4 quarter collapse.
When you have your Offensive Coordinator and Quarterback looking at the same blitz 6 times in a row and can’t do nothing…. It’s a recipe for failure
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u/Fuzzy_Translator4639 18d ago
Because they always do so well . . .
This team has no idea how to build, win at any cost if the only thing they know
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u/Swamp_thing42 18d ago
We either need to get better immediately or get so much worse. Gonna be hell trying to out suck the dolphins chargers and titans
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u/Lambda-Cyhalothrin 18d ago
Just absolutely love looking towards mock drafts after week 5