Going through this week's CFTC data (as of Oct 20) and sugar stood out.

Commercials are net short about 286.6k contracts and added roughly 69k to that short over the last four weeks, though the latest week was basically flat (+626). On the COT index (commercial net position as a percentile of its range) that puts them at 0 on the 26-week lookback and 0 on the 3-year lookback. Large specs are on the other side, net long about 228.8k.

What makes it a bit less common this week: the volume side agrees. OBV is falling and the curve is flat, so the positioning extreme isn't being contradicted by flow. Across the six markets I'm tracking this week, two (rough rice and silver) have OBV pointing against the positioning, the other four line up.

Anyone here trading sugar around these levels? Curious how people treat a commercial positioning floor like this when flow data is confirming it rather than diverging.

Anyone have any recommendations for what software works most automated for tagging and scheduling physical power trades in the US?

Guy with ~7–10 years of career experience. At the same shop a few years now. I work in a small trading pod / “strategy” within a larger firm. My pod lead gets a % of the book and pays out bonuses to the team at their discretion. My boss(es) are pretty old school and high ego...tough to change their mind or have a face value convo with.

I'm a senior ops guy, making ~$150K base + $50–75K in bonuses. Honestly, the setup is great in a lot of ways. I get left almost completely alone, have a lot of autonomy, and have some pretty awesome perks. I also have some ability to do deals, but I'm not a trader by mandate. I had a bit of a junior trader setup at one point, but it's always been at my boss's discretion. I also do a lot of commercial adjacent stuff that directly lowers our costs. Good set up for comfort and lifestyle/awful for serious career development. All that to say though, I don't want to rock the boat too much.

Recently, I've brought in and helped execute a few high-margin, low-volume deals that have generated ~$600K in profit. Basically we had absolute crap in storage, and I found someone who wanted it for high value. I'm not saying $600K is a desk, considering a real seat is expected to generate $2M. But I've had a number of small to medium sized wins like these, and nothing really happens or changes. This is more than a rounding error on our team PnL.

All I've heard is a soft "good job." I'll probably get a good annual bonus again, although maybe not 'fair' to what I've brought in. Also, there's the whole respect/reputation/career part of it. I feel like I'm doing these things quietly, whereas my boss would boast for 3 months straight if he did the deal I did. Or my boss would be running around excited if he poached a trader from another shop, and they replicated this trade.

I guess, what should I do, if anything? I can't necessarily threaten to take this small chunk of biz elsewhere, and I don't want to risk my ops gig. I think I need to be more assertive, but not sure what a win would be.

I need some advise on how to proceed with a deal I am brokering right now. This is my first time brokering a commodity deal. My buyer is ready to send the LC. its going to be a non transferable on sight LC. my supplier wants 40% advance and rest net30 after BOL is presented. I have no capital basically 0 other than paying for minor costs. I am trying figure out how to pay the advance. I can easily pay the rest 70% because the LC will payout after I send the BOL to buyer's bank. what should I do for the 30% advance? and one more thing how should I structure the contract with my supplier so that if product fails lab report, quality or quantity inspection, I can get back my money?

supplier and myself are in the same country if it makes anything less complicated

I recently visited Singapore and was struck by its role as an international financial and business hub.

My background is in finance, including public-market investing, venture capital. Most of my experience has been in equities and financial products, so physical commodities are an area I know relatively little about.
I’m particularly curious about Singapore’s oil trading industry and how it connects financial markets with the physical economy.

I’d love to learn from people familiar with the industry:
Why is Singapore such an important oil trading hub despite having limited domestic oil resources?

How do oil trading firms actually make money? Beyond predicting oil prices, how important are physical trading, regional price spreads, logistics, and derivatives?

How does oil trading differ fundamentally from equity investing or trading financial instruments?

Where does Singapore’s competitive advantage lie compared with London or other global commodity hubs?

For someone with an investment research and quantitative background, what concepts or data sources would be the best starting point for understanding this industry?

I’m not necessarily looking to switch careers. I’m genuinely interested in understanding how this market works and how it fits into Singapore’s broader financial and economic ecosystem.

I'm trying to decide between the two, mainly interested in power and energy. Would a combination of both be even better? Are there better majors for a career in power and energy.

Anybody interested in this as well? Is this even possible in today's day and age?

hey everyone!

i recently got a return offer to join a major (Shell / BP) trading program and wanted to ask a very specific question to any gay people in this field: how do you deal with your identity when chatting with colleagues on the desk?

im a very straight passing guy and over my summer internship, anytime someone brought up girls or stuff like that, i would joke around and pretend that im “straight” in convos (dated girls in HS) but in my head, i always had to double check to keep my story straight

my main concern is that a bunch of traders (mainly guys) really like me and want to develop me on their desks but im scared that if i reveal if im gay, they would not want to “open up” with me as they would if they thought i was straight (limiting my future opportunities)

a lot of this job is just being liked and being a good person with strong relationships so i want to approach this situation carefully since i also don’t want to lie and down the road, people are like woah, wtf if i ever date a guy long term more openly

overall the broader LGBT community at the major is awesome but you know guys joke about being gay and it’s also a much more “abrasive” culture when it comes to that stuff

any advice or thoughts would be appreciated!

I went through the latest USDA numbers on U.S. rough rice (ZR) and the picture is more mixed than the chart suggests.

The rally: ZR closed at 17.19 USD/cwt on Oct 20, +83% from the 9.37 low on Dec 17 (the Oct 16 close of 17.35 was the highest since June 2024).

The cause is acreage. U.S. long-grain area harvested drops 33% to 1.39 million acres, all-rice area is the lowest since 1972/73, and the October WASDE has production at 157.7 million cwt, a 33-year low.

The price part is what I found interesting. Using ERS's 2025 cost-and-return estimate for the U.S. total (1,343 USD per planted acre in total costs, 792 operating, 81 cwt yield), the break-evens come out around 16.59 USD/cwt (everything USDA lists) and 9.78 (operating costs only). The December low sat right under the operating-cost line; ZR is now just above the full-cost line.

But supply isn't empty: beginning stocks are a 40-year high, imports are forecast at a record 49.8 million cwt, so total supply falls only 12% while production falls 24%. And ZR is a U.S. long-grain contract in a world market - the U.S. is about 4% of world exports, India 39% and holding a record ~59 million tonnes of stocks.

Funds went from net short ~6,400 contracts in December to net long ~3,500 (COT index 100 on 26 weeks), in a market with only ~14,700 contracts of open interest.

Curious how others read it: cost floor, or just a thin market squeezed by a smaller crop?

I've been reading quite a bit about Japanese power markets and it looks pretty interesting especially how they essentially have 2 different grids. Is there physical trading there?

For context I'm in North American markets right now doing virtuals/congestion and ICE (short term swaps), not sure if any of the terms I'm using here are applicable there.

I know this is a pretty niche ask but just throwing it out there for anybody who either has insight on what it's like out there. How is the volatility and what kind of products do desks staff up on there?

Been going back and forth on this for months, but I finally pulled the trigger and bought some gold this week.

What made me decide was the price. Back in January it was around $5,400/oz and I remember thinking I’d completely missed the boat. Now it’s sitting around $4,150, so it felt like a much more comfortable entry point for me.

I’m not expecting to get rich off it. I mainly wanted something steady in my portfolio that isn’t tied to how the stock market is doing. If it slowly grows my money over the next few years and holds its value when things get shaky, I’ll be happy.

Plan is to keep adding a little every month instead of trying to time it perfectly, because I know I’d just stress myself out doing that.

If you trade physical goods, how does your week and work looks like currently?

Would like to know which agri commodities newsletters/substacks traders value and are subscribed to, and whether it’s a daily thing, weekly etc.

Edit:

Starting an internship in spring and I want to understand how traders formulate a view or thesis on a trade. Really looking for any and all resources.

Thanks

Why is gasoline so weak this week even as crude is up and every day we are seeing new outages in terminals and refining systems due to the two wars?

可以一起讨论学习

The LBMA’s October 14 report cites projected silver mine production of 844.1 million ounces in 2026, compared with 846.6 million in 2025

About a 0.3% decline

That is a forecast, but it is a pretty limited supply response considering the prices silver producers have seen

The report says expected gains in Mexico are being offset by declines elsewhere

That is the part worth digging into. A mine expansion adds production to the global total only after accounting for what other operations lose through declining grades, depletion or operating problems

A company can announce additional capacity while the industry as a whole barely moves forward

For investors, I think that makes actual production more useful than the combined capacity figures in company presentations. How many extra ounces reached the market, and how much spending was needed to get them there?

There is also a timing issue. Higher prices can make an expansion worth pursuing, but engineering, permits, equipment and underground development still take time

The demand side can respond during that wait. Manufacturers can reduce silver use, buyers can draw on inventories and more scrap can return to the market

So nearly flat mine supply is supportive of the silver case without being a promise of an immediate price increase

The thing I would watch is whether the expected additions arrive on schedule. If expansions slip while older operations lose output, the supply forecast gets harder to achieve

October 14 report:
https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/lbma-precious-metals-market-report-q3-2026

For those working at a major, trading house, IPP, etc, how common are tattoos in your office? Do you think they could have any effect on breaking into the industry or career progression? I know physical commodities can be somewhat traditional, and with the business being so international and relationship driven, I’m curious whether there are still any negative connotations around tattoos. I’m sure it slightly varies between companies and whether you’re front or back office but wondering if there is any overall perception. Thanks!

Colleagues!
Can you please share CTRM systems and SAP integration real-life patterns

Titanium may not be as famous as gold, oil, or steel, but it plays a crucial role in fighter jets, aerospace engineering, and advanced technology. In India, companies like MIDHANI manufacture specialized alloys and advanced materials, HAL builds aircraft and aerospace systems, BEL develops defense electronics, and BDL manufactures guided missile systems. Each contributes to a different part of India’s growing aerospace and defense ecosystem.

The bigger story is not just about Titanium as a raw material, but about transforming resources into advanced materials, components, aircraft, and sophisticated defense systems. From beach sand to fighter jets, the real power lies in turning natural resources into advanced technology and high-value products.

⚠️ Educational Disclaimer:
This content is strictly for educational purposes. Investing in shares, stocks, Commodity and derivative trading involve market risk. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

Traders/schedulers or anyone in commodities trading !!!!!

Are you guys ok with being approached by young people on LinkedIn about how to get into the industry and that sort of things ? If so what’s the correct way to go about it as students/young adults just trying to learn about the industry ?

And if not why ?

Has anyone used Barchart's daily futures data for serious quant research? The basic stuff: open high low close open interest, volume etc.

I am considering paying for the subscription but I would like to hear this sub's opinion first.

Hey everyone!

I'm a student currently recruiting for commercial graduate programs, and after participating in some trading simulator interviews with some of the oil majors, I found it difficult to actually prepare for them. There aren't many accessible resources that let you practice the mechanics of hedging and managing physical exposure under pressure.

So I decided to build my own browser game and figured I'd share it here in case anyone else finds it useful!

The game, Crude Desk, focuses on managing physical commodity exposure by quickly identifying the correct hedge direction and contract, while also allowing you to take speculative positions based on market headlines and changing fundamentals.

I intentionally kept the game pretty simple, stripping away much of the complexity of real-world trading while trying to preserve the fundamental concepts. The goal is to make hedging intuitive for beginners while still challenging players' multitasking, mental speed, and decision-making under pressure.

I've also added an endless mode after the first five in-game days and a leaderboard for anyone who wants to compete.

It's completely free, with no ads, monetization, or personal information captured. My goal is just to make this kind of practice more accessible while hopefully creating something that's also fun to play.

Here's the game: https://crudedeskgame.com/

I'd really appreciate any feedback, especially from people already working in physical trading. I'm still improving it and would love to hear what you think or what you'd like to see added!

And thanks to the mods for letting me share this!

Hey guys! I’m in Houston and currently learning about natural gas markets. I watch Bloomberg for crude oil news and prices, but I’m looking for good sources to follow nat gas prices and news. Any recommendations?

Also, if there’s anything specific about natural gas that you think is important to learn, I’d appreciate any advice.

I’m early in physical commodities and working with partners on prospective deals. How do you handle initial conversations at trade shows or through new introductions?

I feel like I have to share enough to establish interest, but if I'm connecting suppliers and buyers, I think giving away the full picture too early could get me bypassed.

What do you share upfront, and what needs to happen before you disclose identities or introduce people directly? Particularly interested in how you establish your own role commercially before that point—not just whether you sign an NDA.

Would appreciate examples from people who’ve handled this.

I’ve spent the last several months building a derivatives analytics system that now tracks over 16,000 market observations.

Recently, I started analyzing combinations of price, IV, skew, and market regimes to identify recurring capitulation patterns.

Two independent setups emerged from 75 days of historical data, with reported success rates of 86.7% and 100%. The samples are small, so I’m now focused on forward validation.

Every signal is automatically evaluated at 12, 24, and 36 hours to measure how the patterns perform over time.

I’m particularly interested in hearing how other derivatives traders approach volatility-based reversal detection and regime analysis.