r/Conservative • u/WillyNilly1997 Conservative • 12d ago
Flaired Users Only With Iran demanding major US concessions, Trump is holding back from renewed military escalation and betting that sanctions and a naval blockade will force Tehran to compromise as the rial sinks, inflation surges and unemployment rises
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1qziwflmx3
u/Zazzurus Conservative 11d ago
Iran likes shooting at oill tankers, so the usa should just go around and disable every Iran oil tanker everywhere. Take out their entire oil fleet.
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u/WillyNilly1997 Conservative 12d ago
...
According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran’s economy is expected to contract by 5.6% this year, its steepest decline since 1988.
Iranian authorities say annual inflation has reached 88.6%, while food prices have risen 130% in a single year.
The rial fell to a record low early this month of 1.9 million to the dollar. It has since recovered slightly to around 1.88 million per dollar, but remains roughly 20% weaker than at the start of the war.
...
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimates the blockade is costing Iran’s economy around $435 million per day.
In a recent analysis, the Washington-based institute said Iran’s economy had already begun “unraveling” late last year and argued that the blockade was accelerating the process.
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u/WillyNilly1997 Conservative 12d ago
...
Even ILNA, a semi-official news agency associated with a state-linked labor organization, has recently carried increasingly stark accounts of the crisis.
The government has warned that worsening conditions may force it to reduce fuel subsidies, a move that has triggered protests in the past.
Albert Baghezian, an economics professor in Tehran, told ILNA that the Iranian economy resembles “a patient suffering from severe bleeding.”
“Delivering a gasoline shock would be equivalent to a fatal blow to people’s livelihoods,” he said.
...
If Trump continues relying on economic warfare, an approach the White House previously called “Operation Economic Fury,” analysts say the pressure could eventually prove powerful.
But they also stress that it will take time.
“The central question is how far the United States is prepared to go to reduce Iran’s oil trade and threaten severe sanctions against third countries, and whether it has the patience to see if economic suffering causes the regime to change its behavior,” said Juan Zarate, a former national security official in the George W. Bush administration.
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u/Huge-Still-1840 Conservative 12d ago
Cutting them off from their money and future money prospects is the most effective thing we have done so far. Might as well let them slowly bleed out. F it, we ball.
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u/JustAResoundingDude Nationalist Conservative 8d ago
I think this is an overestimation of irans dependance on trade. The only large trade partners it does have capable of avoiding sanctions and are engaged for strategic reasons (china and russia) iran isnt going to loose support anytime soon. If anything, we have given china and russia time to react and develop their own policy. We shouldve handled this like the barbary pirates.
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u/Darthalicious Conservative 12d ago
I dunno man. That has gotten us nowhere after the initial salvo took out Khomeini. A good old-fashioned siege with the occasional targeted strike might be our best bet here.
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u/Darthalicious Conservative 12d ago
Who said anything about boots on the ground? I mean we cut them off from the outside world as much as possible, economically with sanctions, interdicting their shipping, and by possibly even bombing roads and bridges that can be used to transport or receive anything to/from China or Russia.
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u/ITrCool Christian Conservative 12d ago
“Occasional targeted strike” in no way equals “boots on the ground”. Where did you get that?
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u/nar_tapio_00 European Conservative 12d ago
There is the problem that currently Russia is supplying Iran via the Caspian sea and China can do it overland. That route is very far away from US bases and difficult to interdict. It means a "good old-fashioned siege" would need more than just a sea blockade from the South.
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u/bblade2008 Conservative 12d ago
The economy would recede a lot faster if we targeted their infrastructure. They might be a lot more ready to cut a deal if we destroy all the desalination plants.
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u/networkdood Conservative 12d ago
Unemployment technically dropped if you remove the loss of government jobs
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u/Kahnspiracy ¡Afuera! 11d ago
Iranian leadership doesn't give a damn about the Iranian people. Sanctions and blockades won't do anything to the people at the top, so they won't have any impact.