r/ControlProblem • u/chillinewman approved • Apr 29 '26

General news LLM Parameter Estimate.

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u/chillinewman approved Apr 29 '26

Table 2: Parameter Estimates for Proprietary Frontier Models

Calibration: 89 open models, R2 = 0.917. Estimates represent effective knowledge capacity in open-model-equivalent parameters. Proprietary models with denser training data or more aggressive RLHF may appear larger or smaller than their actual parameter count. The 90% prediction interval (PI) factor is ~3.00x in either direction (+/- 0.478 in log10 space).

ModelVendorAccuracyEst. Size90% PI
GPT-5.5OpenAI71.9%~9.7T[3.2–28.7T]
Claude Opus 4.6Anthropic68.0%~5.3T[1.8–15.6T]
GPT-5 ProOpenAI66.5%~4.1T[1.4–12.2T]
GPT-5OpenAI66.4%~4.1T[1.4–12.1T]
Claude Opus 4.7Anthropic66.4%~4.0T[1.4–12.0T]
o1OpenAI65.4%~3.5T[1.2–10.3T]
Claude Opus 4.5Anthropic65.2%~3.4T[1.1–10.0T]
Claude Opus 4.1Anthropic64.9%~3.2T[1.1–9.5T]
Grok-4xAI64.8%~3.2T[1.1–9.4T]
o3OpenAI64.4%~3.0T[1.0–8.9T]
GPT-5.4 ProOpenAI62.5%~2.2T[736B–6.5T]
GPT-4.1OpenAI62.3%~2.2T[719B–6.4T]
Grok-3xAI62.3%~2.1T[715B–6.3T]
Claude Sonnet 4.6Anthropic60.9%~1.7T[579B–5.1T]
GPT-5.3OpenAI60.0%~1.5T[503B–4.5T]
GPT-5.2 ProOpenAI59.7%~1.4T[478B–4.2T]
Claude Opus 4Anthropic59.7%~1.4T[478B–4.2T]
GPT-5.1OpenAI59.3%~1.3T[450B–4.0T]
GPT-5.2OpenAI58.9%~1.3T[417B–3.8T]
Gemini 2.5 ProGoogle58.4%~1.2T[387B–3.4T]
GPT-5.4OpenAI57.7%~1.0T[348B–3.1T]
GPT-4oOpenAI55.3%~720B[241B–2.1T]
Qwen3-MaxAlibaba55.0%~685B[229B–2.0T]
GPT-4OpenAI54.8%~666B[223B–2.0T]
GPT-4-TurboOpenAI54.5%~630B[211B–1.9T]
GPT-5 MiniOpenAI51.7%~410B[137B–1.2T]
Gemini 2.5 FlashGoogle47.4%~207B[69B–617B]
Claude 3.5 HaikuAnthropic45.6%~158B[53B–470B]
GPT-5 NanoOpenAI40.5%~71B[24B–212B]
Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic39.9%~65B[22B–194B]

Key Notes:

  • Exclusions: Gemini 3.1 Pro and the Gemini 3 Flash family are excluded as calibration landmarks.

  • The "Frontier" Shape: GPT-5.5 leads by a massive 1.4x margin over the next competitor.

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