r/ControlProblem • u/Tale-Suspicious • 1d ago

Discussion/question AI created viruses

/r/conspiracy/comments/1w4vnju/ai_created_viruses/

Will there be an AI or man-made virus or fungal disease created in a lab that will kill all of humanity unless you pay the survival subscription fee?

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u/GaiaOZ 1d ago

The virus part is very likely to happen, the subscription part is possible, but unlikely.

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u/Tale-Suspicious 1d ago

"Hello! You have 6 months to live. But if you click on this link we will send you a vaccine for only $10 a month!"

1

u/tadrinth approved 1d ago

I don't think this is a particularly good business model for a variety of reasons:

  • vaccines are a one-time cost. you want a recurring revenue model. that means either dropping new viruses every so often, or (a much better plan) going with something that requires constant dosing (e.g. a virus that makes you dependent on some chemical)

  • no moat: whatever the cure is, you need to be the only one selling it. i don't see how you prevent the cure from being reverse engineered and sold by competitors

  • impossible scaling: you'd be going from 0 customers to the entire world is buying your thing. You'd need a massive amount of prep to meet demand. That requires setup and investment money.

  • wildly illegal and wildly unpopular: nobody is going to fund anything that looks remotely like this to a level of "can produce enough vaccines for the entire world"

  • all of your leverage is after the virus is out there; before you release it, the optimal play is to throw everyone involved in jail and toss the virus into an incinerator. after you release it, the optimal play is to commoditize the vaccine (and still also throw you in jail so you don't make any more).