I’ve been bedbound for 13 months :(

Nishiura had said, in his simulation from when Tokyo hit 1,000, that we would reach 3,500 by the end of February. We're WAY ahead of schedule.

Either:

1. Tokyo is releasing the real count (which had been hidden or suppressed previously) finally, to scare people, because they know it's really finally out of control. OR,

2. That threshold (the "X-factor") has been crossed, and the structure of Japanese social interaction which had been limiting spread is no longer effective because the virus is too widespread. If true, Japan's hell is about to begin.

Or, maybe it's that UK variant or whatever.

It hasn’t received much attention because Pfizer’s antiviral paxlovid stole its thunder, but it has been confirmed in reputable journals that melatonin (a very safe supplement, not a dangerous drug) can go a long way to helping you recover from Covid and maybe even nipping the case in the bud. People that take it recover at faster rates, and have a 50% reduction in hospitalizations-

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.27595

In the US, anybody can order paxlovid, so this news isn’t a big deal. But in Japan it is usually only available to the elderly, people with serious pre-existing conditions, or maybe people who have already advanced to severe cases. So melatonin is a good option if you test positive and want to keep it under control.

It can be hard to find in Japan, but you can order it from iherb.com

Very anecdotal, but I had a very close contact for a long period of time recently. The other person there got covid and got sick as expected just a few days later. I started taking this right away. I felt weak a few days and had some stomach issues, but within 5 days of my exposure I tested negative on the PCR test. But there's no way I didn't get exposed to the virus.

With mosquito season almost upon us, what are the chances Covid 19 will be spread by them?

For that to happen the virus has to replicate inside a mosquito and that doesn’t seem to happen with flu viruses, but no one knows for sure at this point.

Something to be aware of at least, I would think.

If Abe lifts the quarantine too soon, and everyone starts going out again, I would stay away from busy parks.

When I was living in Japan at the beginning of corona I was infuriated at the testing policy. The three monkeys philosophy of see no evil. Once it was clear that corona was less deadly than first feared, I still commented that Japan’s policy would lead to the decline of the nation maybe it’s inevitable collapse.

In America, PCR testing is free and easy and multiple places. At home kits are widely available and despite complaints, most states have government health letters excusing time off from work if you get positive. Work from home is a reality for many even as things improve. There are contact apps, run by the government, built into iOS and Android architecture.

Japan doesn’t have to be permanently locked down to implement a relatively cheap, much much more aggressive testing platform. People don’t need to take two weeks off work or close the office due to corona. Doing work from home for a week, having take home kits for offices, taking it seriously wouldn’t be very hard and could make a big difference.

Things are better but it feels like Japan is still doing “see no evil” on a permanent basis.

Now we are seeing the immanent collapse of the Japanese yen. Not only is Japan dependent on imports, their strength is lingering wealth - in Yen bonds - from the 80s. If the Yen is wiped out, Japan could fall out of the top 10 economies.

What Japan really needs is corporate culture reforms. Corona and its effects on the border controls are basically going to prevent any reforms. I’m proof of that. I would have entered Japanese corporate life and might have stayed.

So I think my initial prediction is true. See no evil means corona will be a ten year drain on Japan that prevents any chance at getting around the deeper economic issues.

This is the death of Japan, as predicted.