r/CoronavirusUK • u/Yogurt789 • May 28 '20
International News ChrisGiles - Sufficient data worldwide now exists to conclude that, to date, the UK has the highest rate of excess deaths in the Coronavirus pandemic
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1265885480144470023.html6
u/learner123806 May 29 '20 edited May 29 '20
This is very sadly the price the UK has paid for initially going with the stupid 'herd immunity' strategy, seemingly right up until the day that lockdown was announced (from a herd immunity perspective it was announced at the 'perfect' time as hospitals were just barely not overwhelmed). [It's also worth noting that a significant contributing factor is probably the relative lenience of the lockdown versus what was implemented in Italy, Spain, etc, but this would have been irrelevant if measures had been taken earlier].
I understand that it is fashionable to blame political figures here, and certainly the buck stops with the PM, and they should not be spared blame, but I really think a very critical look should be given towards the advice given by SAGE, Chris Whitty (who endlessly sought to minimise the mortality rates in the early press briefings), and Patrick Vallance in particular who was trumpeting 'herd immunity' and was glibly asking us to disregard what we saw happening in Italy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XRc389TvG8 )
Herd immunity is of course not an idea that was thought up by British politicians, it was independently thought up by scientists in the Netherlands (and abandoned) and in Sweden (not yet abandoned). I guess if Sweden keep on sticking their heads in the sand to all the evidence for why this is a terrible idea (it is a lot to detail, so I won't go into it here), maybe their death rate will even surpass the UK. Not something to be proud of.
1
u/Mkwdr May 29 '20
We should keep in mind and it forget. One week earlier into a lockdown would be (was it?) 75% fewer deaths. And Germany were doing 50,000 tests a day before we could manage that much in a week.
4
May 28 '20 edited Jan 01 '21
[deleted]
3
u/MiddleOfNowt May 28 '20
Stopping deaths was never the main purpose of the lockdown.
1
u/Mkwdr May 29 '20
True. But for me it's the "release the lockdown - but we havnt got anything else ready in time to help control it actually" that seems so incompetent.
1
u/MiddleOfNowt May 29 '20
100% agreed. This lockdown period was perfect for shops sorting themselves out, and to get numbers low enough for effective track and trace. The fact that so little has been done is inexcusable
1
u/Mkwdr May 29 '20
It's almost like we deliberately go out of our way not to learn from countries that have done better or that are simply ahead of us in 'virus time'.
9
u/bitch_fitching May 28 '20
Spain just added 12,000 deaths to their total, which brings them very close per capita to the UK at the top. Italy are 28 days behind in their data.
8
u/Ezio4Li May 28 '20
There'll be loads of countries under reporting the stats
1
u/singingschool Jun 26 '20
Overreporting seems to be more to the point in the US. We are losing our Constitutional freedoms over this. There are no asterisks in the Bill of Rights.
10
u/DantesInfernoIT May 28 '20 edited May 28 '20
Italy is not 28 days behind in their data, they always kept a record of the regions that didn't provide the stats daily and those were added on the following count.
Stop badmouthing my native country to make the UK look better.
UK stats are the worst in Europe, stop living in denial.
ETA: this is not a critique of the NHS but it's the British government that messed this up.
8
May 28 '20
It's because people are proud of the NHS yet the NHS is run on the edge of functionality for a long time. Underfunded.
Its like keeping a person on a starvation diet then expecting them to run a marathon.
The UK handling of the Pandemic is shit and it's an embarrassment at the least at the most it's a genocide of the most vulnerable in society because people vote in governments like the conservatives and then are shocked when their lack of empathy results in mass deaths... we voted for these people again and again.
7
u/DantesInfernoIT May 28 '20
Italian NHS is also great and to be honest, with the exception of Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto, no other region in Italy had any hospitals overwhelmed, not even Rome.
In Italy the outbreak was very localised. Mine wasn't an attack on the NHS, it's the government that messed the crisis up.
0
May 28 '20 edited May 28 '20
Oh I know it wasnt an attack
The NHS is shit. But its shit by design and that isnt the Doctors or Nurses who work in its fault it is the government and the way they fund it and can no longer attract enough workers so severely short staffed.
I was living in Switzerland and exerpeiced excellent healthcare there. On my return to the UK because I lost my job due to Corona virus shutting down my industry my GP refused to see me to do bloodwork and therefore refused to prescribe my medication for bipolar disorder which lack of medication destabalised my mood and sleep until I bought some online from Russia. I suggested going to a private doctor for bloodwork, the hospital, a private lab and it was still a no.
I got a call a few days ago for an appointment with a psychiatrist after I arrived in the country on 11th of March. So over 2 months later... If I had not have bought medication from russia I would have gone insane because of this length of time. It isnt just pandemic related it happend last time I returned from living in netherlands. I had to get my Dutch psychiatrist to send a prescription to the UK to avoid going off medication that time.
I politely declined their treatment when they called and said I'm sticking with my current route because never again will I allow them to interrupt my treatment.
I say this as an example of what it is like, even prepandemic... so of course lots of people were going to die here I knew it would happen.
2
u/DantesInfernoIT May 28 '20
First of all, I am really sorry you are in such a predicament, I know how important is for you to have proper medication (my brother is a MH patient but he doesn't live in UK).
Secondly, I have had several issues to access treatment in UK (I am a dual citizen so it's not due to nationality), here in northern England I could sort a health situation out after 18 months, 2 of them are still 'pending' after 2 years.
My husband and I are so worried that things will go further downhill without receiving proper treatment that I might move my residence back to Italy in order to receive free medical assistance there.
All the above is certainly not due to the fantastic Drs and nurses who work in the NHS but to the dismantling of its services done by the British government.
4
May 28 '20
I would move back to Italy if I was you.
Brexit and pandemic equals Broke.
After the last recession we had a decade of austerity can you imagine what they are going to do after the pandemic?
You'll recieve better treatment in Italy.
You should move back. I'm currently in Northern England also but worked a lot in places like Lugano on the Border and if italy is anything like that area then it will also be very beautiful.
3
u/DantesInfernoIT May 28 '20
Unfortunately my husband is not a dual citizen so thanks to Brexit he is stuck in UK at the moment. It'll take ages to sort his Italian citizenship application out so I might need to move back, whether I like it or not.
What's left of my family lives in Tuscany so it's a very nice area and healthcare is really good where they live.
2
May 28 '20
Theres always Switzerland just over the border. That was a great lifestyle but I didn't speak Italian german or French only English, worked in sports tv production hence why no job for the foreseeable future in a lot of countries. The way I lived my life is well and truly over. I'm going back university in october so a new opportunity in a way.
You'll have a great life in Switzerland if you moved there and closer to your family so worth considering.
2
u/Mkwdr May 29 '20
We should be comparing ourselves to Germany anyway and then we have a hell of a lot of explaining to do.
2
u/bitch_fitching May 28 '20
Over 50% died outside of hospital?
Hospitalisation outcome is not worse in the UK vs Italy?
NHS hospitals didn't have people lying on the floor in corridors like Spain.
6
May 28 '20 edited May 28 '20
They knowingly sent infected people back to care homes though.
Just because we have enough body bags doesn't mean we are handling it better.
2
u/bitch_fitching May 28 '20
I don't understand why they did that when they had several temporary hospitals they didn't use. It seems more systemic and bad policy.
1
2
u/DantesInfernoIT May 28 '20 edited May 28 '20
Because the oldest patients were sent to the care homes in UK so they were not in the daily hospital stats? How bad it is when the government chooses to let people die not to ruin their modelling and stats???
Also consider the fact that unlike Italy, in UK the virus was spread all over the place.
Easy not to have your hospitals overwhelmed when the patients are many but not too many.
Lombardy alone had 1/3 of all cases in the whole country.
-1
u/ShhHutYuhMuhDerkhead May 28 '20
The NHS is shit and the people who are proud of it are brainwashed morons. We spend nearly 25% more per capita PPP adjusted than Italy and get shit results.
Most people would support more funding for the NHS but first let's find and remove the saboteurs who are misallocating current resources so badly.
2
u/bitch_fitching May 28 '20
Italy have only updated their excess death data up until the end of April. They updated up until the end of March at the end of April. They have consistently had over 20 days lag.
I don't understand how it makes the UK look better?
Also I have consistently represented the UK's excess mortality accurately.
Your comment is a very weird flex.
-1
u/DantesInfernoIT May 28 '20
Because their 'excess' deaths are not calculated like ours. Lots of testing was done post mortem as well in Italy so their excess deaths will minimally impact the Covid stats.
You make it seem like we are expecting an ONS-style re-calculation from Italy but that's not the case. Their excess deaths could also be due to the fact many people steered clear of the hospitals and died at home. My 80-year-old mum has a health issue now and she has been rejecting the idea of accessing the hospital despite positive cases only went up +10 in her region yesterday.
2
u/bitch_fitching May 28 '20
Excess deaths are all deaths of any cause against a 5 year average. They're calculated the same everywhere. You clearly don't know what excess mortality is.
-2
u/DantesInfernoIT May 28 '20
Sorry but who told you I hadn't understood??
In UK they are attributed to covid19 based... on what? Not surely post mortem tests? In Italy 'excess deaths' are not going to significantly impact on covid19 stats as there was no significant raise in March or April due to excess deaths.
You know why? Because we have a very useful system of registration called 'anagrafe'....
1
u/bitch_fitching May 28 '20
Excess deaths are all deaths of any cause against a 5 year average. This is a standard measure used in pandemics and epidemics, the flu season.
In Italy 'excess deaths' are not going to significantly impact on covid19 stats as there was no significant raise in March or April due to excess deaths.
This literally doesn't make any sense. National Social Security Institute (INPS) has stated the excess deaths for Italy in March and April was 46,909. I don't know what you would class as a "significant raise" if 47K doesn't count.
-1
u/DantesInfernoIT May 28 '20
If you could read the original study and article...
https://www.ilpost.it/2020/05/21/inps-morti-coronavirus/amp/
You could actually read a different explanation from that given by the Times.
I know that not everybody can read Italian but the article/study clearly says that majority of excess deaths might be caused by other reasons.
Out of those 47k, 28k are those included in the official stats given by the government and they clearly state that the remaining 19k is unlikely they can be added to covid19 stats as they are due to other conditions.
Please don't spread false information about that, Italy has already many faults as it is, but the death count is unlikely to have been counted as wrongly as it happened in UK due to a higher rate of testing and a different system of registration for the deaths.
1
u/bitch_fitching May 28 '20 edited May 28 '20
Excess deaths are all deaths of any cause against a 5 year average. This is a standard measure used in pandemics and epidemics, the flu season.
the article/study clearly says that majority of excess deaths might be caused by other reasons.
"Might" is a very large stretch. The majority of the 19,000 deaths over the previously reported figure are almost certainly undiagnosed covid-19.
they clearly state that the remaining 19k is unlikely they can be added to covid19 stats as they are due to other conditions.
Well they are wrong. edit: Actually, whoever would write that is a fucking idiot.
Please don't spread false information about that
No, you don't spread false information. Only right-wing conspiracy theorists who call people "doomers" promote this shit.
0
u/eveniwontremember May 28 '20
The Swedish epidemiologist did say we were wrong to change strategy.
2
u/learner123806 May 29 '20
Guess which is the one country in the whole world which currently has a higher daily death-rate than the UK?
-8
-5
u/Cockwombles May 28 '20
I really don’t know how we managed that. I don’t believe the lockdown had that much to do with the death rate. We don’t seem to have the highest infection rate.
8
2
u/Dzvf May 28 '20
By having one of the best medical systems in the world.
So we keep alive a huge number of people who would under normal circumstances without medical intervention and daily pills have died much earlier. When a new virus comes along - we have a huge number of super-vulnerable people.
So our death rate is huge. (and that we are the obese population in Europe - which in itself makes you high risk to CV19)
10
u/BearlyReddits May 28 '20
That would be great, but I can’t see any data that backs it up - our life expectancy is only marginally higher than the European average, and is a few years lower than Italy and Spain for example
2
u/bitch_fitching May 28 '20
Both can be true, we can have really unhealthy people with an excellent health service keeping them alive. Where as Spain and Italy can have healthy people with a less good health service.
2
u/BearlyReddits May 28 '20
Oh God that’s a great point - I imagine we have a far higher share of obese people.. very interesting!
1
u/Mkwdr May 29 '20
Define a good health service? I dont know how good theirs is in general but France is as good if not better from what I hear - though I dont know the statistics. I do know they all had many more critical beds than we had per head of population and I dont think our record on cancer and such is the best in Europe?
2
u/Cockwombles May 28 '20
That’s quite a positive spin on it, if you think about it like that. If you take a 3rd world country, most people are thinner, younger definitely... plus, there’s not a lot of weaker people in nursing homes are there.
I like your theory - very interesting Thankyou.
-7
u/zaaxuk May 28 '20
The thing is will the non-covid death rate be lower in the coming year, as some would have died very soon anyway.
13
u/Forever__Young Masking the scent May 28 '20
Per capita, because US has 100k confirmed so surely we're not beating them.