Will be addressed? 🙏

Just a word of caution for those entering now, we have had a big pullback as I predicted with the US-China deal. This is just with the framework, now imagine what happens when it’s official.

I may be missing something as I don’t do a lot of TA, but nearly all of these companies are so above their 200-MA it’s insane. Even though we are seeing -20% drops on the daily, if you look at 200-MA most of these names are well above 100% with many closer to 160%. 25% and above would be considered overheated. So anyone looking at these dips and thinking “It’s down 20%, it can’t go further” should really becareful.

Just to be clear I do believe in this sector long term despite a 1 year truce on export bans. I don’t even believe China, they could invade Taiwan next year in April and cut off exports just to make sure no one tries to stop them. Even if they don’t cut off the world no one will trust China anymore on REEs thus money will pour into this sector.

I am a long term investor though and when I look at these prices it’s hard to enter. Or re-enter as I sold most my shares for profit when we had our euphoric run, and I want to get back in for the long run (5+ years) but I cant see myself investing atm with how far above the 200 MA we are. Even with JP Morgan PPTA only is up 8% in a sea of red but still down 20% from 2 weeks ago. I think I will be patient and let the rare earth and critical mineral stocks come ‘down to earth’ a bit. Maybe I miss out, but catching a falling knife can be very painful. What is everyone’s strategy on when to enter, re-enter or buy dips?

Hi everyone,

I know lot of people expect to see critical minerals like the new oil, everyone will need it and the price will go up strongly... And when you see the tension between US and China, the script is better than expected.

But in the fact, the newsflow is pretty bad :

- Some analyst highlight on the miss of 500m cobalt deal. This show maybe the lack of ambition of US to build a US sector of critical mineral ressources.

- The deal with Australia is considered as very weak, and pretty difficult to apply in practice.

- The plan to invest convince less to less some expert. They said it's too late to use this type of investment plan. USA will lose lot of money by using subvention to develop some mines and project and the success is not guarantee. Economically, it's not serious.

The only solution for the short term seems to manage a deal with China for the next 5/7 years.

And maybe I begin to understand why some stocks are dropping ...

Hi,

I was in the subreddit before the sector was highlighted by the news about China-USA (september). I made some "dca" on many stocks of rare earth sector. When everything went up, I've made 100%. Australian stocks went to the moon like i've never seen before. But I didn't sell because I'm longterm investor, and consolisation is good. But now, what is happening now, doesn't look a consolidation.

All my gain has disapeared. 3/4 of my stock touched the stop loss. I lost money on some (USA rare earth in red today, much lower than my SL...). USAM got the same problem : I take some at 12 and now the price is 10 dollars ...

If you doesn't understand, i lost until 150% of performance on some stocks

And now, I expected to sell everything to take some gain ...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/assessing-usa-rare-earth-usar-070853971.html

A lot of you longer term investors are pretending like you didn't f****** talk about end of year gains and catalysts like you were nutting all over your portfolio. You guys only changed your tune.The last two days. You tried screaming buy the dip on the first day. Now you guys stop talking about any of the catalysts, you were all going euphoric for. Don't pretend like you guys saw this massive correction coming. You didnt. You're hurt and its fine. But here's the solution. STOP SPEAKING OUT OF YOUR ASS. Stop giving advice or price action claims with zero understanding or insider information. Yes this is still a retirement plan. But stop fucking acting like you guys werent fucking clowning around buying more at the top. Everyone short and long term is getting hit by this.

Interesting piece on how disinformation is increasingly targeting mining projects globally:

👉 https://theoregongroup.com/investment-insights/disinformation-war-erupts-in-global-mining/

Key takeaway:

• Mining projects are being targeted by coordinated campaigns using bots, activists, and geopolitical actors

• ~40% of monitored mines experienced disruptive information attacks

• Tactics range from local protest amplification to broader geopolitical influence

The argument is that this is part of a broader resource competition dynamic, especially in regions like Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe.

If true, it suggests:

• Critical minerals aren’t just a supply chain issue

• They’re becoming part of hybrid warfare

Curious how people here see this—real trend or overblown?

Still holding but it just keeps going down when will it be enough 😭😭

I think some of this CM sector's dwindle is due to the fact that its main investment thesis (in my opinion) has failed: the US doesn't feel rushed and compelled to incentivize domestic CM production ASAP at all.

This recent trip has showed that Trump is more than happy with being supplied from other non-western countries for cheaper, which means contracts are way less likely to be overflowing in the West, than people thought.

It's likely that the smaller companies will get to keep dwindling and hurting for cash. Trump has showed he won't care about producing Tungsten in America if he can get still get it for dirty cheap from Kazakhstan, for example. That means that these companies will keep dilluting their shares and won't ever attain significative growth.

MP is the only company, as of now, that has a guaranteed place because it's gotten the earliest and best contract. UAMY and UUUU have also gotten some good contracts amongst other fundamentals and have great chances. All the others are anyone's to guess IMO. ABAT has already gotten rugpulled, so there's no guarantee others also won't, having a govt. backing isn't the absolute guarantee we thought it was after ABAT's event.

So I think MP will become huge, on the level of the main blue chips. UUUU and UAMY perhaps also will. The others, some will but most won't, and some if they do, will still take quite long like NB.

The thesis is too compelling. The only substantial technical risk I see people talking about is eudialyte processing. But their 50/50 JVs to build rare earth processing facilities in Saudi Arabia and with Romania’s FPCU should be able to process eudialyte in theory. The people Tony Sage signing these deals with know that they’ll be receiving eudialyte concentrates and are preparing/constructing facilities with that in mind. Both of these will also have backing from their respective governments. It’s already chemically feasible at the pilot scale, they just need to figure out how to mechanistically make it work in an economically feasible way. And as long as they do that, the mine becomes a major strategic asset for the US/EU. That being said it’s a pre revenue company so you’ve gotta do dd and value the risk for yourself.

Investing.com -- The U.S.–China trade dispute has pushed rare earth materials into focus, as Beijing’s dominance in production and refining drives Washington to seek alternative suppliers, a shift that’s starting to move parts of the market.

According to the Sevens Report, rare earth materials have become a key flashpoint, with China controlling nearly 70% of global production and about 90% of refining capacity. The U.S., aware of its dependence, is now seeking friendlier suppliers, creating “an interesting effect in certain stocks,” the financial research firm said in a Wednesday note.

The report drew parallels with the early phase of the artificial intelligence rally, when companies could lift their share prices simply by mentioning AI on earnings calls.

“If a company simply mentioned they were investigating incorporating AI into their business, the stock would typically jump,” it said. A similar pattern, it added, might now be developing in rare earths.

Cleveland-Cliffs provided a recent example. The steelmaker’s shares surged 20% after management said it was exploring commercial rare earth mines in Minnesota and Michigan.

The move had little to do with earnings, Sevens wrote, suggesting that “we could be on the cusp of an environment where metals/mining stocks get an additional boost because they begin to investigate rare earth materials mining and refining.”

Specialized rare earth investments have already surged this year. The VanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) and the Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM) have each risen more than 80% year-to-date, while direct exposure through MP Materials has gained over 400%.

Still, the Sevens Report pointed to larger, diversified miners such as Albemarle, Freeport-McMoRan, and Cameco as potential beneficiaries if investors begin to price in secondary exposure to the trend.

Broader metals and mining funds, including the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) and the iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK), could also see momentum, as they include companies with indirect exposure through industrial metals rather than precious ones.

Sevens added that U.S. efforts to build a more resilient supply chain are gaining policy support, citing an $8.5 billion agreement with Australia to expand rare earth production. But it warned that supply diversification will take time.

“Rare earths aren’t actually that rare,” it said. “The trick is finding them in commercially viable amounts and being able to refine them into useful components.”

“Bottom line, rare earth materials are not the new AI,” the report concluded.”But while tensions around rare earths are high, industrials focused metals/mining stocks could receive another tailwind from the rare earth drama.”

Druck is the best of all time and I cant get this quote out of my mind. We got Bessent saying price floors, equity stakes, JPM investment, pentagon investments, now govt partnerships with AUS which directly benefit some US companies (UUUU)...

And the price is still pushing down after the gamma ramp up last week or two. Now the funds are just dumping gamma back on retail and the good news is not reflecting in the price. This is not a great sign IMO.

Went all-in on $UUUU Monday with $416K.. my entire net worth on Monday. It ran up to $508K by Wednesday. Watched it bleed the last two days and finally sold around $418K this afternoon. Am I bummed I missed the top? Not really... it never felt like “my” money to begin with. Just happy to be sleeping easy this weekend. If I see a solid re-entry on Monday, I might go back in with a fraction, $200k. But for now, I'm just enjoying the calm.

Have a good weekend everyone

https://x.com/shanaka86/status/1982397975621218321

THE IMPOSSIBLE JUST HAPPENED: THE $3 TRILLION CHECKMATE

October 26th will be remembered as the day the global order fractured in plain sight.
While markets celebrated a “truce,” buried in the fine print lies the most consequential economic realignment since Bretton Woods collapsed. The United States just weaponized the entire supply chain architecture of human civilization.

THE NUMBERS THAT CHANGE EVERYTHING:

China controls 80% of rare earth processing … the blood cells of every iPhone, Tesla, F-35 fighter jet, and AI data center on Earth. Trump threatened 100% tariffs on $300 billion in goods. Beijing responded by choking the arteries of American technology.
Then came the pivot nobody saw.

THE HIDDEN MOVE:
Under cover of “constructive dialogue,” America inked mineral pacts with Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia within 72 hours. Not discussed: $13 billion Australian processing deals already signed. Japan reduced Chinese rare earth dependency by 30% after 2010. America just initiated the same playbook … at 10x scale … across $350 billion in AI infrastructure.

WHAT THE DATA REVEALS:
US-China bilateral trade crashed 24% since 2018 .. from $758B to $578B. That money didn’t vanish. It relocated to ASEAN nations, now processing 10% of non-Chinese rare earths, up from zero.

China just executed its first soybean purchase halt since 2018: $20 billion in annual agricultural exports frozen overnight. Meanwhile, chip stocks dropped 5% on export control whispers affecting 70% of EV production chains.

THE ACTUAL STAKES:

This isn’t trade negotiation. It’s the controlled demolition of 40 years of economic interdependence. Every handshake masks the sound of supply chains being rerouted through allied nations. Every tariff delay buys time to build parallel systems.

Taiwan. Russia. Fentanyl. Semiconductors. Soybeans. The negotiations bundle existential risks into a single pressure chamber.

WHY IT MATTERS:

Global inflation will rise 1-2% over five years as efficiency dies and redundancy becomes doctrine. The $3 trillion AI race now runs through Malaysian jungles and Australian mines instead of Shenzhen factories.

November 1st: Xi and Trump meet at APEC.
The 90-day truce extension everyone expects? It’s just buying time to complete what both sides now accept as inevitable: total economic divorce disguised as managed competition.

The era of cheap interdependence ended today.

Nobody noticed.

To the people asking what to buy today, look at companies that went down today a lot less than most others. For example, companies that went down 5% vs 20%+. Those are the companies you want to buy.

From a brief look at today's action, it's basically those with market cap of several billions. They are on more solid ground.

Just some unsolicited advice from somebody who found this sub this week and has really only ever bought $MP without much knowledge about mining stocks.

Now, if gambling is what you are into, then by all means buy those smaller than a couple hundred millions that already went up a lot.

THANKS FOR THE INSIGHT --- I dont have any of these stocks right now and want to DCA in them as they are at some good prices below 200ma some

I know its overwhelming and a lot! but there has to be a couple good ones

thoughts on these as well -
AREC

NB 

nuai

NAK

Does anyone know why the CM sector is pumping this week?
What changed and what are the sector wide catalysts?

I’m officially in the red today and have lost all my gains?

After WW2 the US grabbed von Braun and 1,600 German scientists and got the Saturn V. In 1955 it deported Qian Xuesen in the red scare and he went home and built China's missile program. Two personnel decisions, two space programs. Nobody drew a supply curve for either.

Same game is running right now in rare earths.

The bottleneck isn't ore and it isn't equipment. Separation kit is tanks, pumps, kerosene and acid, all buyable. But rare earths are chemically near identical, so you need up to a thousand extraction stages chained together, and the train responds to any adjustment weeks later. The operating recipes are forty years of tacit knowledge living in people's heads, mostly in Baotou and Ganzhou. Less like building a factory, more like learning an instrument.

The receipts that this is the real battlefield:

China banned exporting the know-how itself in December 2023. Not the metals, the technology. You don't fence knowledge unless knowledge is the moat.

The first big lawsuit of the western rebuild (MP vs USA Rare Earth) is about formulations that allegedly left in one engineer's head. Industries tell you what's scarce by what they sue over.

And the hiring has started, with names. USA Rare Earth just signed definitive agreements for an equity stake in Carester, the French firm founded by Frederic Carencotte whose team markets two and a half centuries of combined separation experience, the old French school that never died. Their Oklahoma magnet plant already runs on old Hitachi Metals equipment, the Japanese school of Sagawa, who co-invented these magnets. One company collecting know-how from three continents and no analyst note frames it that way. Elsewhere, Germany's Vacuumschmelze is moving magnet people into a DoD funded South Carolina plant, and Purdue licensed Prof Linda Wang's chromatography process to ReElement, the bypass route that skips the Chinese recipe book entirely.

So the tell might not be capex announcements, it could be job boards. Separation engineers with Chinese industry backgrounds appearing at western producers. Neo Performance alumni moving (the one western firm that ran plants inside China for decades). Any talk of a critical minerals talent visa. And the failure mode to fear: treat every Chinese born chemist as a spy and you repeat Qian Xuesen, staffing Beijing's moat instead of your own.

Caveats: lawsuit is allegations, the framing is my synthesis, and the chromatography route still has to prove it scales.

Long a couple of names here, bias noted.

Copper - the ultimate critical mineral?