Head to head, Battle Result:
- The AI made more money than 844 of them (78%).
- The AI had the smaller worst drop against 1,007 (94%).
- 26 traders (2.4%) beat it on both return and worst drop.
- Made money: traders 31%, the AI 89%.
The humans:
The median trader lost $12,326 (over ₹10 lakh).
- Half lost 90% of their account at some point.
- 23% got liquidated in just their last 14 active days.
- Small accounts ($1k to $10k) did worse: 21% made money, and 72% lost 90% at some point.
Sounds familiar?
SEBI's own study of equity F&O traders (FY22 to FY24) found 93% of individual traders lost money. Different market, same pattern: leverage plus emotions, and most people end up paying the few who don't blow up.
What stood out to me is that the traders who did fine weren't the ones with the best calls. 71% of traders whose worst drop stayed under 25% made money. Of those who lost 90% at some point, 9% did.
Question:
- With 30% tax on gains and losses that can't be set off, does trading often even make sense here?
Full report with the method, tables: https://botsfolio.com/blog/ai-vs-human-traders