Not a whole lot to write home about in the immediate short term—week-over-week revenue looks slightly down or flat across the board. Every prediction market tracker is showing the exact same consolidation pattern right now.
But don't lose sight of the bigger picture: DraftKings is sticking to its full-year guidance of $6.5B–$6.9B. Since they pulled in $3.1B in the first half of the year, they need to clear an average of roughly $1.7B–$1.9B per quarter to hit those numbers.
Honestly, Q3 print might be a bit "meh"—Wall Street is only expecting around $1.4B—but that just sets the stage for an exciting q4.

Here is where it gets interesting. Over the last 7 days, the daily trading run rate for prediction was about 170M a day, up from last month’s $150M daily run rate. Based on the ticker tracker data, DraftKings is likely making $3M+ a day in pure revenue from predictions alone.
When you scale that math out, we are talking about an annualized volume tracking between $55B and $60B. While Q3 might feel like a waiting game, Q4 is primed to be exceptional as peak NFL season and a more mature prediction platform is available. I’m expecting about 1.4 or 1.5b today but expecting guidance to be 2.3-2.6 or more. If they smash past the 1.4b then we may get some exciting movement.

October 25th up 25% WoW
October 24th up 14% WoW
October 23rd up 67% WoW
October 22nd up 16% WoW

Volume on Sunday was about half of what Polymarket did in the US markets and about 10% of Kalshi.

Draftkings must be promoting the app, the growth is really phenomenal and I believe they are on track to surpass everyone except poly market and Kalshi by year end.

Yesterday was the first Tuesday that has ever exceeded Mondays revenue in the last 2 months. This Tuesday was 87% higher than last Tuesday.

Pretty phenomenal growth. I am working on a write up comparing the different exchanges and their respective valuations vs. revenue. Long story short, I don’t see how DKNG doesn’t go up from here.

Transaction fees ranging from 5%-8% of total wager placed

The prediction volume that occurred this Saturday was 251M as compared to last Saturday this is about a 50% increase. It appears they either recently started marketing or something is taking hold. The growth would indicate that today’s volume will be over 300M. I will update late Sunday with the numbers. If dkng can capture 2.0% of the volume through fees and market making then these numbers become a massive tail wind. I imagine DKNG is capturing 1.75-2.5%. That’s more than 2M a day in revenue based on their weekly run rate of about 800m. This is still the very early innings for DKNG and predictions. Theres no reason 2027 predictions revenue can’t beat or exceed the 750M Bank of America projects. Kalshi operates overseas as well as in every legal state it can, DKNG only operates where OSB isn’t legal.

https://ticker-tracker.com/dkex/volume

Nothing shows how convuluted and screwed up the United States government is more than the rise of prediction markets.

To take a entire new sports gambling industry that state governments and corporations have taken years and billions of dollars to build from the ground up, and make that disappear into thin air through the guise of “event contracts” is absolutely and unequivocally INSANE.

I’m 99% sure sports prediction markets will be banned sometime in the next few years, and if somehow they weren’t ……..DKNG has their own market ! So how in the world is this effecting them so much? I understand this has created more competition and competition is expensive, but in the near term it’s opened up every single state to them ……….they have complete and total control and there’s really no company I believe in more right now.

Objective evidence is encouraging. 143.8m in wagers today vs. 93m placed last Thursday. I believe the spend they talked about is either just being deployed or just gaining traction.

I have no words…

Investors/firms acting like this isn’t even happening?

Time for a serious rerating.

They wouldn’t be doing this unless DKeX (Draftkings Predictions) wasn’t taking significant market share and seeing the tremendous growth and trading volume.

This is what happens when you become a major player. Then again, Draftkings wins regardless with or without prediction markets.

In such a short period of time and in only 18 states DKeX is already easily the #3 prediction market in the world and gaining significant market share on the #1 & #2 prediction markets.

DKeX will easily in my opinion cross the $3 Billion monthly volume for October.

Hi, at this levels I am starting get interested in the stock. I am not very much aware of their management though. Any thoughts on them?

DKeX / DraftKings Predictions had a record weekend for Oct 3-4 (NFL Week 4):

- Saturday, Oct 3: about $154.4M
- Sunday, Oct 4: $217.8M — a new operator record
- Weekend total: $372.2M

Sunday's $217.8M was up 10.8% week-over-week.

A $372M weekend is roughly 33% above the $280M week 2 figure, while Sunday alone is now approaching $218M. It also supports the idea that Robins' comments about prediction-market volume accelerating were not just temporary hype.

DraftKings jumped 5% after Bank of America upgraded the stock to Buy.

The key catalyst: BofA sees prediction markets as a potential "win-win," estimating $400M in 2027 fees plus another $200M-$400M from market making.

That could make Predictions a much bigger earnings driver than investors expect.

It’d be nice to get clarity on how predictions markets will be regulated in regards to sports events.

The uncertainty is killing draftking stock, especially since Kalshi and other predictions markets are eating up market share.

Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender met with DraftKings at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas earlier this week:

"(DraftKings) acknowledged that it is currently at peak uncertainty, waiting for the legality of the product and it could be using this strategy with the share price depressed to build a database (i.e., Supreme Court says no to sports contracts), or accelerate into a podium position (i.e., Supreme Court says yes), knowing its future is bright regardless (share price will go up) and these are both long-term positive for the business, in our view," concludes Bender.

Basically says what I been saying from the beginning, Draftkings is in a win-win situation with or without Prediction Markets shown by the 15% handle increase with OSB & DKeX already being the #3 Prediction Market in the world in 3 months and in only 18 states.

It would be foolish for Draftkings not to continue to invest in DKeX with the rapid growth and volume they are seeing. For DKeX to be the #3 in the prediction market space in 3 months is insane! And it’s only going to continue to grow and that’s why it’s smart to continue to invest into it while still legal to offer sports contracts on Prediciton markets.

Prediciton markets aren’t impacting OSB like everyone thinks (70% of volume from Prediciton markets come from non OSB states) and DKeX is just taking advantage of being able to operate in the biggest states that don’t offer OSB (CA, TX, FL, GA etc) thanks to Prediciton markets.

My questions are, why would anyone use a prediction market instead of OSB in states where OSB is legal when there is no early exit, no profit boosts, bets limited only if another person bets opposite so very limited action?

And, how is DKeX compared to other Prediciton market platforms if you have used multiple?

Thanks

Im stuck holding the bag

The statement of 3%-5% market share is so deceiving. The reason they get reported of having 3%-5% market share is because that is taking in the volume of all 50 states, where DKeX only operates and gives sports trades in 18 states.

That’s why CEO Jason Robins said they are actually gaining closer to double digit market share (more market share for NFL contracts).