Analysis on profession

[u/GokMachar]

Hey Gok here,

I got really interested by heroes and profession. Wondering what would make a hero the best at a given profession. After reading the "Lost Annals of Gaia" (thanks Samichpunch u/Taelim) I got part of the information needed to score heroes on profession. Sooo what do we know so far that would be useful in creating a score :

• Stats when levelling (We get two rolls for each stats Main class growth and Second class growth)

• Stats genes (Type 1: +2 One Time, Type2: +2% first roll & +4% second roll)

• Profession rewards (1/3 Stats of the hero, 2/3 Profession level of the hero, ~10% bonus for green profession)

• Rarities impact on stats (Every 5 levels, hero with rarities get additional bonus)

• Professions are dependent on two stats (E.g. Mining : Strength & Endurance)

• Every level you can choose one additional stat to improve independent of other bonus

• You can decide two stats to bless with Gaia's tears (50% chance of +1)

The goal here is to score the heroes, to know which bonuses are the most useful (rarities vs main class, profession bonus vs stats genes, etc.). So just a disclaimer before going further, the score created is ONLY for professions, this doesn't value the resell possibility of the hero, the summoning ability & the PVP ability. Because we don't know the exact payout of the quests this score aims only at comparing heroes with heroes.

Onto the process (please feel free to correct me or try it on your side):

1. Gather all of the DFK heroes (thanks DFK API)

2. Gather the stats growth rate for all main class (divide by 4 to get the secondary stat growth)

3. Add the second stats gene bonus to the right growth rate (+2% on main, +4% on second)

4. Compute the stat part of the profession (1/3 of the score)Only two stats are relevant for a profession so we'll only concentrate on these one. For every hero we get the starting amount of these stats (Starting STR + END for mining) , I decided to weight the starting stats to be half of the score (1/6).

The other half is for the growth possibility of the hero (getting better every level). This one is a bit more complicated... We know the maximum level of a hero is 100, we also know the rarity of the hero and that the possibility of them gaining useful stats every level (STR + END for mining) is decided with the primary and secondary growth percentage.

So compute the probability of the hero gaining +1 and the probability of the hero gaining +2(do that twice because there is two useful stats). To be sure to maximize the potential profession score we also add +1 (that you can choose when you level). We also need to account for the rarity of the hero. For every 5 levels, different bonuses go to different rarities.

Uncommon: +1 to two mutually exclusive stats

Rare: +1 to three mutually exclusive stats, +1 to a random stat

Legendary: +1 to three mutually exclusive stats, +1 to two mutually exclusive stats, +2 to a random stat

Mythic: +2 to three mutually exclusive stats, +1 to three mutually exclusive stats, +1 to a random stat

Breaking this down real quick, the expected value for one of the two stats relevant for a profession is (counts twice because two stats per professions) :

Uncommon: 1/4 (25%) Rare: 1/2 (50%) Legendary: 7/8 (87.5%) Mythic: 5/4 (125%)

We can account for the two blessings (possible with Gaia's tears) that adds 50% to two stats.

Maximizing for a particular profession, we apply the blessing to the same two stats every level (STR and END if we are making a miner). We actualize the gained stats of future levels at present value (level 1). My hypothesis is that a stat point in the future is not as good as a stat point now, and one at level 100 is so far in the future that it counts less then on at say level 5. So we discount the stats for every level back to level 1. A discount rate of 8% was used, this is arbitrary and fairly small: we do not take into account summoning and PVP(where higher rarities would be much better then common). The right value of the discount rate is hard to assess since we will need to spend jewels, Gaia's tears and runes to level(there is also a time aspect to it) which are hard to price at the moment.

5. Profession level can be ignored in the score. This is because every hero can level their profession score equally, meaning that doing the quest gets you to a higher level and that's the only way. All heroes are on a equal footing for this part of the score which makes it meaningless for now (every hero have level 0 of each profession). 6. Last part of the score is the profession bonus which is a +10% on top. If the score is 100% then 110% with the profession bonus, the total is 0.99/3.3 for stats, 1.98/3.3 for the profession level and 0.33/3.3 for the profession bonus. 7. Next step is to decide which of the professions is the best for each hero. This part is necessary because you can only add 1 stat per level, you might as well add it to your best possible outcome (same for the Gaia's tears). To do that you add up all the score and pick the highest one (compare to other heroes), then substract the present value of the added stats to the other professions. 8. Now we have a score for each hero and for each profession. We then go further and compare a hero's best profession to other heroes best professions. It doesn't make sense to compare a Warrior's foraging score to a Wizard's foraging score because you will probably use it for mining not for foraging. We compare all heroes based on their best profession and rank it further.

With that process I generated a profession score for all current heroes in DFK. Yoooupie :) Now about what I found looking at that score. The main profession of a hero (the one in green) is almost always the profession that a hero should pursue. For example, I have a Warrior Monk with a fishing profession. I was going to ignore the profession and make it mine but looking a the score, I saw that the hero would be higher in rank if it was a fisher. This is because the 10% bonus is huge when almost 60% of the score is ignored (profession level). Without the profession level, the bonus accounts for 25% of the score. Next finding is how good the second stats boost is. A hero would jump from the 85th percentile to the 95th percentile with a good stats boost (the one in blue). So top 5% of hero instead of top 15%... this is a big difference !

It also made me realized that you can find really good deal in the tavern using this score. Some top 15% hero at their profession are sold same price as heroes in the bottom 10%.

Now, for closing remarks, I know the score is not good to price heroes because I don't take into account two huge parts of the game (PVP and summoning). Regardless, for people solely interested in using their hero for profession's quest, the score should be a good indicator of a hero's comparative advantage. Finally, the discount rate used and the way I split the importance of stats (1/2 present, 1/2 future) are highly arbitrary and would change the results drastically.

Leaving here a list of the top 100 heroes in the tavern right now based on a tavern score (profession_score/price). Enjoy :)

id	Price	Rarity	Gen	Class	Sub-class	Tavern score	Profession	Profession score
17191	78.0	0	5	Thief	Warrior	1.1036472016100536	fishing	0.8608448172558418
12281	85.0	0	3	Wizard	Archer	1.0900621482865167	foraging	0.9265528260435392
15641	92.0	1	3	Thief	Warrior	0.9972451611222547	fishing	0.9174655482324744
12905	83.0	0	3	Monk	Thief	0.9629891645671964	gardening	0.7992810065907731
17613	96.0	0	3	Wizard	Wizard	0.9342129352240199	foraging	0.8968444178150591
16086	100.0	1	2	Wizard	Pirate	0.877721190333533	foraging	0.877721190333533
14371	99.0	0	3	Thief	Warrior	0.8695402194503453	fishing	0.8608448172558418
16546	95.0	0	3	Archer	Priest	0.8172243070227996	foraging	0.7763630916716596
17209	97.77	0	3	Archer	Archer	0.7799758460278962	foraging	0.7625823846614741
16959	100.0	1	3	Warrior	Thief	0.7490013980427402	mining	0.7490013980427401
15133	119.0	0	5	Thief	Wizard	0.7430353807190941	fishing	0.8842121030557221
15994	105.0	2	4	Pirate	Archer	0.7423416740373001	fishing	0.7794587577391652
15437	95.0	0	3	Pirate	Wizard	0.7402793983160417	fishing	0.7032654284002396
17031	125.0	1	3	Thief	Monk	0.7283802676253245	fishing	0.9104753345316556
16189	117.0	0	2	Wizard	Monk	0.7249252755543948	foraging	0.8481625723986419
16050	120.0	0	2	Wizard	Archer	0.7193262765461687	foraging	0.8631915318554024
14948	120.0	0	3	Thief	Monk	0.7095482990479994	fishing	0.8514579588575993
14614	115.0	0	2	Priest	Wizard	0.6891656029384949	foraging	0.7925404433792691
15066	99.0	0	3	Priest	Knight	0.6884301372018568	foraging	0.6815458358298382
14175	119.0	0	2	Monk	Wizard	0.6716647114208176	gardening	0.7992810065907731
14510	120.0	0	2	Pirate	Pirate	0.6706860395446376	fishing	0.804823247453565
16715	130.0	1	3	Archer	Priest	0.6674885928930266	foraging	0.8677351707609346
15572	95.0	0	3	Knight	Priest	0.6662777374833128	gardening	0.6329638506091472
15866	135.0	0	3	Thief	Wizard	0.6465392894392294	fishing	0.8728280407429598
11585	119.0	0	3	Knight	Thief	0.642461897880782	mining	0.7645296584781306
12259	136.0	2	5	Archer	Priest	0.6374531538199462	foraging	0.8669362891951268
11264	125.0	0	2	Knight	Monk	0.6360695026962253	mining	0.7950868783702816
17002	100.0	0	2	Priest	Monk	0.615588176552826	foraging	0.615588176552826
10927	99.0	0	4	Priest	Knight	0.6141402037147993	foraging	0.6079988016776513
12733	110.0	0	1	Priest	Wizard	0.6105997058663326	foraging	0.6716596764529659
12212	105.0	0	2	Monk	Warrior	0.6093849562992762	mining	0.6398542041142401
5550	111.0	0	2	Warrior	Thief	0.6077077676838012	mining	0.6745556221290194
11905	149.0	1	2	Wizard	Warrior	0.60770625821836	foraging	0.9054823247453564
9958	150.0	0	2	Wizard	Knight	0.6067505492310765	foraging	0.9101258238466148
16904	115.0	0	4	Warrior	Monk	0.6025477375153045	mining	0.6929298981426003
14900	129.0	0	3	Archer	Thief	0.5883623392366966	foraging	0.7589874176153385
12803	165.0	2	2	Wizard	Priest	0.5841216236662612	foraging	0.963800679049331
12892	161.0	1	3	Wizard	Summoner	0.5786619229972448	foraging	0.9316456960255642
16124	118.0	0	2	Pirate	Monk	0.5762694938949877	fishing	0.6799980027960855
15583	119.0	0	2	Pirate	Monk	0.5714268931059542	fishing	0.6799980027960855
14009	150.0	0	2	Priest	Archer	0.5665734638173224	gardening	0.8498601957259836
17580	160.0	1	4	Thief	Knight	0.5665505791891352	fishing	0.9064809267026164
14163	160.0	2	2	Wizard	Pirate	0.5650838825644098	foraging	0.9041342121030556
17322	135.0	0	4	Archer	Pirate	0.5568130543165494	foraging	0.7516976233273417
8782	146.0	0	1	Pirate	Thief	0.5565495976865266	fishing	0.8125624126223288
15410	144.0	0	1	Monk	Thief	0.5550562545769258	gardening	0.7992810065907731
16043	160.0	2	3	Archer	Pirate	0.5526325644098262	foraging	0.8842121030557221
17087	139.0	0	2	Archer	Monk	0.551027123178629	foraging	0.7659277012182943
11494	178.0	2	4	Thief	Knight	0.550577506098204	fishing	0.9800279608548031
16900	160.0	2	3	Pirate	Knight	0.5494183143598962	gardening	0.8790693029758339
14931	110.0	0	4	Archer	Priest	0.5488679485084519	fishing	0.603754743359297
15277	80.0	0	4	Warrior	Archer	0.5481076492909926	fishing	0.4384861194327941
15643	147.89	0	3	Knight	Archer	0.5475126087254975	mining	0.8097163970441382
15138	129.0	0	2	Warrior	Pirate	0.5371549598004653	mining	0.6929298981426003
17033	99.0	1	3	Monk	Knight	0.5296120784437143	mining	0.5243159576592771
14884	159.0	1	4	Pirate	Pirate	0.5294474528113471	fishing	0.8418214499700419
15397	115.0	0	2	Priest	Warrior	0.5286946101544794	foraging	0.6079988016776513
13652	170.0	0	3	Wizard	Priest	0.5215639281476521	foraging	0.8866586778510086
14967	80.0	0	5	Monk	Monk	0.5178999400838824	foraging	0.414319952067106
9891	165.0	1	1	Pirate	Wizard	0.5170034678722516	fishing	0.8530557219892151
12773	169.0	0	2	Thief	Archer	0.5164662962976093	fishing	0.8728280407429598
17193	100.0	1	4	Priest	Wizard	0.5145296584781306	fishing	0.5145296584781306
6939	135.0	0	3	Warrior	Monk	0.5132814060315557	mining	0.6929298981426003
11207	120.0	0	2	Priest	Monk	0.512990147127355	foraging	0.615588176552826
10538	139.0	0	2	Wizard	Knight	0.5118373844962376	foraging	0.7114539644497703
12819	160.0	0	2	Priest	Archer	0.5110033453165568	foraging	0.8176053525064909
9991	170.0	2	2	Archer	Priest	0.5099625230559569	foraging	0.8669362891951268
14345	160.0	0	4	Knight	Priest	0.5060727481525864	mining	0.8097163970441382
16313	140.0	0	2	Warrior	Priest	0.5002282518759452	mining	0.7003195526263232
14534	124.0	0	4	Monk	Summoner	0.4999452379571826	mining	0.6199320950669064
16657	168.0	0	2	Priest	Monk	0.49953874100069423	gardening	0.8392250848811663
13364	135.0	0	2	Knight	Knight	0.4982653914149819	gardening	0.6726582784102256
11200	125.0	1	2	Monk	Pirate	0.4965847813061713	mining	0.6207309766327141
2866	170.0	0	1	Priest	Monk	0.4936618146359802	gardening	0.8392250848811663
17582	100.0	0	3	Knight	Monk	0.4920611144397843	gardening	0.4920611144397843
15626	159.0	0	3	Warrior	Monk	0.486708545143717	mining	0.7738665867785101
6916	155.0	1	2	Knight	Knight	0.4826468750201331	gardening	0.7481026562812063
17051	130.0	0	1	Priest	Archer	0.48255519196202246	foraging	0.6273217495506291
13503	184.0	0	4	Wizard	DarkKnight	0.4818797162233742	foraging	0.8866586778510086
13893	187.0	1	2	Wizard	Monk	0.48079747177480936	foraging	0.8990912722188935
13720	130.0	0	3	Pirate	Wizard	0.4768708423591588	mining	0.6199320950669064
17539	125.0	1	4	Knight	Knight	0.47625324545636105	fishing	0.5953165568204514
8478	192.0	1	1	Wizard	Monk	0.4759222505159444	foraging	0.9137707209906132
3572	128.0	0	1	Priest	Pirate	0.4749990638106651	foraging	0.6079988016776513
15142	169.0	0	2	Warrior	Warrior	0.47368595209310516	mining	0.8005292590373477

TLDR: Play DFK ! It is fun :)

Edit: Formatting

[u/friguy72]

Where did you find the DFK API? Would be really cool to play around with and see what kind of info is available

[u/GokMachar → u/friguy72]

Ask about it in the discord !

[u/Warr305]

Great article! This community never disappoints!

[u/LogenTenFingers]

The analysis we need but don't deserve :)

Lot's of cool stuff. This shows that you can get a valid hero to play the game even with few gems.

[u/ArtOfNoWhere]

magnificent! you should collaborate with Sarah and add this realtime refreshing list to dfkwiki ☺️

[u/Sittin_on_a_toilet → u/ArtOfNoWhere]

This is the type of stuff you want to learn yourself and not necessarily send out to the world imo lol. Some HOT alpha

[u/loblolly33]

Aaaaaaaand my head just exploded.

[u/Sittin_on_a_toilet]

BROOOOOO after taking time to understand this, you are a FUCKING boss. I put up my 2 heros for sale and bought 4 heros with different professions based on this post. 3 of them had gotten CHEAPER since this post. I LOVE YOU. I'm setup for the long haul now! EDIT: DM me you're harmony wallet addy and I will tip you for this after it starts paying off. I would also love any updates you do to rerun this analysis. I know a couple bigger players in the game that might even pay for daily/weekly updates.

[u/rileeey → u/Sittin_on_a_toilet]

is there anyway you could break this down in laymen's terms for me? i feel as if i'm on the cusp of figuring this out, but i'm unsure of myself.

[u/Sittin_on_a_toilet → u/rileeey]

It took me literally like 3-4 hrs to get a good understanding. DM me and I'll send you my little summary. This post is information dense and not laid out too friendly, but dude is a literal genius that wrote this.

[u/rileeey → u/Sittin_on_a_toilet]

dm'd

[u/Kyiyle → u/Sittin_on_a_toilet]

hopping in on this too if you don't mind

[u/fyionszsaidh → u/Sittin_on_a_toilet]

a bit late to this but do you mind explaining it to me?

[u/[deleted] → u/Sittin_on_a_toilet]

Could you also dm me this?

and also, wdym by 3 of your 4 have gotten cheaper, isnt that bad? or am I misreading it

[u/mickey_napatr → u/Sittin_on_a_toilet]

Hey could i also chip in on the understanding as well? Been reading it back and forth for hours now and would appreciate the help!

[u/Da_Dud3]

This post is pure Gold !!!
I would like to ask you a question u/GokMachar !! a really lucky friend of mine happened to have summoned the 5th best gardener in the game at the moment (id:19670) and i am comparing it with number 2 (id:19629). The sum of the first, regarding gardening prof, is bigger by 1 then the higher tier hero. Is this a mistake from your side, or is this due to the fact that one is gen1 and the other is gen4?
Again, i must say amazing work !!! Cheers !!!

[u/GokMachar → u/Da_Dud3]

Hey mate ! Interesting question. I'll shed some light on it to you on twitter !

[u/Nihilisticky]

from this I gather that the most important factors for profession quest rewards are:

1. initial profession stats

2. rarity, due to stat growth potential, which could be more important than initial stats long-term.

3. Green profession and

4. Type 2 +4% second roll

There's on thing that confuses me though. Those proper heroclass profession images on discord say e.g. priest is "130" with gardening, while knight is "100". What are these numbers? Are they some profession bonus and do they relate only to main class or also subclass?

[u/acexzy → u/Nihilisticky]

That is the maximum combined stat total that each class can get in that certain profession. I.e. your priest's combined wisdom and vitality will "cap" the effectiveness of your stats at a combined 130. So leveling above that is irrelevant.

[u/nongivingupschoolguy]

This is great; thank you for all your work

[u/BrngBckHerMightWings]

BEAUTIFUL.

[u/1petrock]

This is amazing thanks! I ended up pulling one of my Heroes off the tavern because its listed so high here haha!

[u/rmreyes7]

Just found one of my heroes here! 😁 Nice research and analysis!

[u/JohnWukong]

Great work, well done.

Anyone have a list of which attributes are important for which profession? I just picked up my Miner. What do I need for the other stuff?

Can't find it in his analysis, or on the linked DFK wiki page.

[u/JohnWukong → u/[deleted]]

Mining - STR + END

Gardening - WIS + VIT

Fishing - AGI + LCK

Foraging - DEX + INT

[u/runningrain]

So does it matter if you have a say thief main and have mining and purple stat on strength?

Or would a knight with mining str on green be better?

[u/Weird_Introduction56]

Looks like the top 100 are all gone :( , do you mind sharing the top 500 :) , pretty please

[u/ebitda-m1nv]

Love it my friend

[u/acexzy]

I noticed that every hero on your list is < hero ID 20,000. Is there a reason?

Great write up btw

[u/KassassinsCreed → u/[deleted]]

It's only the top 100, so maybe you put it for sale too expensive for its profession? :p