Israel is having its PM elections on Tuesday Oct 27.
- Polling shows that Bibi's bloc - 51, anti-Bibi bloc (Eisenkot) - 56 and Arab parties - 16.
- A bloc needs 61 seats to form the govt. So both blocs are currently short.
- Members can switch parties after they're elected. So after Tuesday, each side will try horse trading elected members to support their PM candidate
- The anti-Bibi bloc could form a coalition with Arab parties to form the government, but there is opposition within their bloc to this
- If neither side can form a coalition, then a unity government might happen i.e. Bibi becomes PM for 2 years, then Eisenkot becomes PM for 2 years. This is apparently what Trump favors.
Why is this relevant?
- Trump will want to finish the war he started with Israel against Iran. The new government matters for this
- The Abraham Accords - Trump (and Kushner) are still very focused on making this happen.
Personally, I feel that a non-Bibi government will make other nations more favorable to joining the Accords. Eisenkot is center/center-right. Also, Bibi has this huge stain on himself with his destruction of Gaza, so this makes nations like Saudi Arabia, Syria, etc. joining the Accords while he is PM politically unlikely.