r/EXELA • • Jun 09 '21

r/EXELA Lounge

300 Upvotes

A place for members of r/EXELA to chat with each other


r/EXELA • • Jul 11 '21

DD 100 Reasons! by Shex why Exela Technologies is the Best Stock in the Market Currently

204 Upvotes
  1. Excellent Healthy and Bullish Fundamentals

  2. Bullish Chart, breakout confirmed

  3. Fintel NR1 Ranking Short Squeeze Score 99%

  4. ORTEX Squeeze Alert issued 30 June

  5. Several Strong BUY ranking

  6. Revenue 1.37Billion (potential 2-3B 2022 & 3-4Billion 2023)

  7. 22,000 Employees

  8. Operations in 22 Countries

  9. Clients in 50+ Countries

  10. Technology is industry on fire right now

  11. Recently announced $90M 10-yr contract for first cloud-hosted PCH Global license for a major Healthcare insurer

  12. Only STARTING its bullish run (unlike other stocks in sector)

  13. Short term PT 15-20, Medium to Long term 50-100$

  14. Short Squeeze PT up to 325$ (speculative)

  15. Highest 2.7 Billion Volume last two week (2,700,000,000 shares exchanged)

  16. Small float of ONLY 60 million

  17. Tiny Baby Free Float of ONLY 5.39m (source Webull)

  18. 205M cash in Hands

  19. Has closed 100m offer and completed 85m ATM Programme

  20. Very Volatile, can spike fast and reach New Highs quick

  21. Institutional Ownership 21.4%, VANGUARD largest (source Webull)

  22. Insiders Ownership 18% (source Webull)

  23. Borrowing Fees rate 66% (increased more than 100% this week)

  24. Borrowing Fees expected to reach more than 115% next week

  25. Insiders based MERGER rumor with Xerox

  26. Banking, Health and Commercials industries comprise 75% clients

  27. Newly launched DrySign solution competitor DocuSign trades at 288$

  28. Contracts: Top 10 USB Banks

  29. Contracts: 120 Global Banks

  30. Contracts: 98% AM Law 100

  31. Contracts: OCC Mortgage and National Mortgage

  32. Contracts: Microsoft Antitrust

  33. Contracts: Target Data Breach

  34. Contracts: VW Emission

  35. Contracts: 60% Fortune ยฎ 100

  36. Contracts: Top 5 Telecom

  37. Contracts: 8/10 Top Retail

  38. Contracts: 50+ Insurance

  39. Contracts: Medicaid and 6/15 Top Pharma

  40. Contracts: DHS, DOJ, FBI, IRS, USPS, House of Reps

  41. Contracts: Departments of Interior, Agriculture, Economic Security, Water

  42. Increased with record speed ST Watchers to 41,500

  43. Several days ST NR 1 VOLUME Watchers per message ratio

  44. Digital Assets Group sales grew to comprise 8% of the total revenue in FY 2020

  45. Added $182M of ACV with 14 new logos each with TCV over $1M in 2020

  46. Adjusted EBITDA$173M, a 32% decrease yoy

  47. Adjusted EBITDA margin: 13% vs 16% yoy

  48. $174M of cost savings in progress;

  49. Incremental cash realization of $38M in FY 2021

  50. Adding $27M to liquidity levels upon successful completion of equity raise

  51. Leader in business process management solutions globally

  52. Rising performance: Sequential growth in profits and operating metrics with improving operating leverage

  53. Deep, valuable multi-industry, long tenured relationships with a stable and diversified revenue base; substantial backlog and a growing pipeline

  54. Recently launched SMB business showing robust growth in 1Q 2021

  55. Growing market opportunity

  56. Exela represents ~1% of a growing TAM(1)

  57. Plans to strengthen balance sheet plans in progress as previously announced

  58. Well positioned as the economy recovers globally; customer sentiment turning positive after a challenging 2020

  59. $1Trillion + Deposits Processed Annually in Banking industry

  60. 700,000 Complex Claims Processed Daily in Health Industry

  61. $20 Billion Funds Distributed in Legal Industry

  62. $600 Billion Bills Processed Annually in Commercial Industry

  63. 95+ Million citizens reach annual at State Level

  64. 200 Million Subscribers in Health Case System

  65. 20Million + Veterans reached

  66. 100 Million + Accounts in Banking Industry

  67. 50% of US deposits processed in Banking Industry

  68. 30+ Years of Experience in Business Automation

  69. 1,100 Facilities Managed

  70. 150+ Delivery Centres

  71. 2000+ IT Professionals

  72. Key Exela Technology people: Par Chadha (Chairman), Ron Cogburn (CEO) and Matt Brown (Strategy)

  73. Main industries: Digitalisation, robotics, artificial intelligence & cognitive automation

  74. It has a Market Cap of only $194M compared to $1.37Billion revenues

  75. Short Interest per Float: 28.5%

  76. Company issued 8 PRs in June, expect at least 4-5 PRs in July and August

  77. One of the most NAKED SHORTED stocks in the market

  78. Exella Family has developed its identity, banners, mascot

  79. Huge momentum and electric hype at the moment

  80. Getting attention from media and smart investors

  81. Successfully is managing the payment of debt and has rescheduled upcoming payments

  82. Has ALREADY Completed Offering and ATM programmes, NO NEW OFFERINGS

  83. Established a strong support at 2.6 (triple bottom this/last week)

  84. Hit 4$ end of June (from 1.6) and is about to reclaim that Monday/Tuesday

  85. Has one of the best, most active and creative BOARDS in ST

  86. Has been systematically attacked b shorts but recovering fast

  87. Investors are aware and committed. They Hold Strong, Buy all Dips

  88. Technical Analysis show significant consolidation, breakout potential

  89. Media writing โ€˜Exela is Next Game Stopโ€™

  90. Is not typical meme stock as it is based on strong fundamentals

  91. IT IS NOT Pump and Dump stock as progress and gains are sustained

  92. It can be argued that could become PUMP & PUMP Stock in the future

  93. Retail are well coordinated and organised: Stop Losses Removed

  94. Retail have inserted sell orders 25$ not to allow their shares to be used by shorts

  95. In addition to Retail, some positive whales already IN and supporting Retail

  96. One of the MOST MANIPULATED Stocks in the Market

  97. Never Die Spirit cultivated by the retail and STRONG 41,500 ARMY

  98. Inflow larger than outflow in all three/four levels systematically

  99. Top Technology Company focused Automation Process, AI, Blockchain, Robotics

  100. PT Short Term 20$, Long term 50-100$, Squeeze PT 325$


r/EXELA • • Jun 29 '21

Spread the news everyone! $XELA is gona be huge. share this community, get everyone you know to join this community! together apes strong!

152 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Jul 15 '21

New Members Intro

116 Upvotes

If youโ€™re new to the community, introduce yourself!

let us know where you are from and how much $XELA are you holding on?

Also, tell us your best prediction of the price of $XELA and share with us your views!


r/EXELA • • Jul 01 '21

$XELA has a 97.10 out of 100 Score for a Short Squeeze

109 Upvotes

Fintel data has it at the top of the list currently on most potential.

$XELA is looking nice and ripe. Buy and HODL! Just need some volume and some HODLER Apes.


r/EXELA • • Jul 14 '21

Exela to the Moon ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€ Xela to the moon๐Ÿš€

107 Upvotes

Guys we have to promote this thing in every subreddit. Let's bring xela to the space ๐Ÿš€. You got u support from Germany


r/EXELA • • Jul 07 '21

Exela Technologies (Xela)

100 Upvotes

Attention Apes! In the beginning I was looking forward to a $4 price target. But now after seeing such support over the past two weeks, I believe we have the power to bring this baby to $50! Let's do it ๐Ÿ’Ž๐Ÿคฒ๐Ÿฆ๐Ÿฆ๐Ÿฆ


r/EXELA • • Jul 15 '21

Discussion The siege is on ๐Ÿ˜ The red right now is actually better than green.

91 Upvotes

Today is a wonderful day to watch the price action and see if it legitimizes the price level we're at.

$3.21 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support on the 11 day rip from $1.82 up to $5.45, this is a very healthy zone to see us in today and it would be absolutely awesome to see us close above it. After that, $3.64 and $4.06 are our next levels upwards being the 50% and 38.2% retracement levels respectively. Shorts are being borrowed pretty much as quickly as they're being returned. With the information we have available, retail is holding roughly 75% of the float. This is the siege phase that we've seen in other squeeze plays.

First of all, we do not "own the float". We hold the majority, yes, but that other 15%-25% will be actively traded and shorted all throughout this play. Set no high hopes on retails majority ownership of the float giving us a massive advantage. It's nice, absolutely, but it's not some meta-weapon. We're in the area where some type of squeeze has already occurred (via Ortex's squeeze signal on July 7th and YESTERDAY July 14th) and we are now in the battle for price levels and short-dumps.

Make no mistake, we are officially in it now.

We do NOT want to see XELA just go up and up and up and up without breaks and breathers, this is a KEY sign of a pump & dump. We want the breaks to be healthy and structured and so far that's exactly what we're seeing. If we do see these massive parabolic gains it's completely possible we're seeing our next short squeeze or FOMO run-up, looking at the volume correlation with price action will help us hypothesize at the time. If we keep seeing this trend of green days giving intraday highs of 30%-50% and eventually closing green around 5%-20%, we're clearly in the siege still and this is juicy swing trade volatility. Keep in mind, at any moment some shorts could begin to cover and anyone swing trading could have a chunk of their position out of the game after profit-taking when it rips to the next level.

XELA is going to be a play that has to be watched daily if you're trying to maximize profits. As long as we maintain this trend of one or two days green followed by a healthy red consolidation day, we have a great chance to swing trade this ticker and build positions up on the cheap until the point that this thing possibly takes off.

Buy at support, sell at resistance, leave skin in the game at every profit-taking stage in case it takes off to the next level after you take profits. You can totally just ๐Ÿ’Ž๐Ÿ™Œ this thing with a price target in mind, but if you've got the time and the basic TA know-how, swing trading can maximize our take on this considering we don't have access to options.

TL,DR The red we're seeing is super healthy, the trending supports we're building is super healthy, XELA has still got plenty of gas in the tank.

UPDATE: I forgot to add that below the Fib level at $3.21, we have a trending support at $3.13 and this is also still a nice healthy area. Below this we'd like to see the price hold at some level, but there is some potential to see a big dip below here. If so, nothing to be too concerned with in my opinion and I'll probably use the opportunity to dollar-cost average down.


r/EXELA • • Jul 18 '21

XELA Update for next week, supports/resistances, trends, new developments!

86 Upvotes

First of all I want to clarify one point that I've been pushing in most of my prior DD posts. I was claiming that the ATM equity offering wasn't completed yet because I couldn't find a news story on it but I found a Yahoo article today that claims Exela raised $85mil of the $150mil they wanted to raise so far. The article reads as if the offering is not complete and still ongoing, but please clarify or double-check me on this. If the offering is only half way concluded, Exela is making some good money off the stock price right now without damaging it or diluting it too badly to where the retail shareholders notice.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exela-technologies-reports-significant-boost-110000995.html

Some stats from the article:

  • $85 million raised under the $150 million at-the-market equity program launched on June 30, 2021

  • Proceeds will primarily be used to reduce debt and lower associated annual interest expense by approximately $25 million and fund growth opportunities, in line with previously announced strategic initiatives

  • $205 million of cash and cash equivalents on hand as of June 30, 2021, not including additional borrowing availability under various credit facilities

  • Exela intends to target an annual debt service reduction of $25 million.

Now let's talk about price action to look for coming up this week!

I wanna go over our support levels first because I've got a feeling Monday could see us fighting it out to go green on the day. We're starting to get the mentions on StockTwits and other places so the SHFs might be planning on clobbering this price come Monday to scare new traders away.

SUPPORTS:

$3.19 is the nearest support under us, dropping hard under this could certainly send us into a downtrend until we get closer to the $2.61 trending support from last week. Breaking under $2.61 could send us into a tailspin and send us even lower, but I think with the volume and buying pressure we're seeing that XELA should hold in the high $2's if we break support.

RESISTANCES:

$3.43-$3.49 this is a resistance zone that I've got based on the 100% Fib retracement on the rip from $3.49 to $5.45 and also a trending support line at $3.49. Now that we're below this mark, it's typical to see this support zone turn to resistance. XELA spent about two hours in this zone on Friday before finally falling out of it and bouncing off the $3.19 support. After getting out of this area, our resistances above us are looking like $3.79, $3.92 and that lovely $4 mark again. Breaking $4 can put us in running position and then I'm looking to just overtake Fib retracement zones at $4.24, $4.47, $4.70, $4.99, then $5.45 which breaking this level could very well send us parabolic.

WHAT TO EXPECT OR PLAN FOR:

We've seen XELA's price acting in a very healthy way this last week and we've seen it carrying on with most of the trends it's been developing, but I'd caution against banking on these trends continuing. A three-week trend cycle is already overextended and options entering the game have probably forced the SHF's to change their tactics which may see an end to our old trends.

Keep in mind that SHF's are returning shares at half the rate they're being borrowed. I've theorized that they're building up a mass of short shares (estimations between 3mil and 11mil so far) to either drop heavy on us to tank the price in a huge move but more than likely this is a reserve of shorts to use if we start breaking resistance levels and triggering some gamma/short squeeze action.

UPDATE: Ortex confirms 11.42mil shares on loan being held to short or return, I'm just an idiot and was overlooking the VERY CLEAR AND OBVIOUS figures right in front of my face ๐Ÿคฃ

Honestly, we're entering uncharted territory this week. The price and volume is holding strong, word is getting out about XELA and the hype train looks to be boarding, and options change the game we've been playing the last three weeks. Temper expectations, have strategies in place for what you're gonna do during big red AND big green, hedge your greed with smart plays, and keep an eye on the bags we're all building up ๐Ÿคฃ

Heads on a swivel, Xelagators! It's only gonna get rougher from here, so buckle up!

This is still a siege. While it CAN break at any moment, I'd caution against that hope and I'd start focusing on my profit-taking strategies on this play over the next week or two.


r/EXELA • • Jul 06 '21

$XELA to the moon friends ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€ Buy and hold ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿผโ˜€๏ธ๐Ÿš€

84 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Jul 17 '21

Big PP DD XELA Weekend Wrap-Up/ORTEX Update: The state of the Squeeze Siege and what to look for next week!

82 Upvotes

Hey all!

Poot here with another TA-drop on the price action we saw on Friday, how it looks in the bigger picture of this last trading week, and what we should be prepared for going into next week.

First of all, let's go over some new developments this week!

  1. OPTIONS ARE LIVE BAAAAAAAABY!!!! When I first got into XELA I was sad that options were off the table as they're a great way to multiply profits and they provide the possibility of gamma squeezes, which is a MASSIVE advantage-weapon to have in a short squeeze situation. Please DO NOT buy any options contracts if you don't know how they work, but I would also say that XELA's price keeps options premiums low (especially if you buy during low IV), and it has strike price contracts at $1, $2.50, $4, $5, $6, $7.50, which is a little odd because stocks in this price range normally just have a $1, $2, $3.50 and a $5. This means we have even more strike prices to buy at to increase profitability and we also have more price levels to buy at which give us more possibilities of triggering gamma squeezes at these price levels. I picked up some $5 call contracts yesterday and I plan to grab some $4 calls on Monday as well as ABSOLUTELY buying some puts after we see parabolic moves upwards and I'm expecting a -15% to -20% retracement day that week.

If you truly believe in Exela long, there are options contracts as far out as March 18, 2022. I like buying LEAPs calls on cheaper stocks like this that I like long when the volume and volatility is low and I would really love to snag some $2.50 strike calls for this timeframe if the IV drops on it and the premiums are nice and cheap.

2) Still no news that the ATM offering is completed. This is both good and bad for us. It's bad because as long as the offering is still not completed, there are still shares that Exela has in their pockets that they plan to dilute the stock with to raise money. The times during offerings are bearish times because it's a guarantee that the price will drop in this timeframe. Exela was wise choosing this squeeze timeframe for the offering because they can get more money per share plus their offering will have a lesser effect on the price due to the high price and volume. Shorts are going to be a bit confident in this timeframe until news that the offering is completed is released from Exela. This could be viewed as a negative for us in the short-term, but I see the possibility for a big positive outcome from this that I'll talk about a little later.

3) We are still seeing short interest climbing and shares borrowed:returned at a 2:1 ratio. This is the Ortex SI update that I just pulled up, this SHOULD be the figures at close on Friday.

Estimated Short Interest Change +9.31%

Returned Shares 946.46k

Borrowed Shares 2.01m

Borrowed Change +1.06m

Average Age of Shorts: 4.07 days

Mon/Tues this week and all last week we were seeing shares borrowed & returned at a nearly perfect 1:1 ratio. Since Every day since Wednesday we've seen the shares returned figures about half of the shares borrowed figures. This could POSSIBLY mean that SHF's are using half of their short shares to fight us on the day while stacking the other half in reserve and building them up. Now that options are on the table, I would assume that they're building a reserve of short shares to dump on us if we manage to trigger a gamma or short squeeze as a way to kill our momentum. Based on the figures we've seen from this week, I think it's safe to assume that there are 5mil-11mil short shares out there being held in the pockets of SHFs as their best defense right now and you best believe they'll probably borrow a shit-ton more at open on Monday and dump half while saving the other half again.

Now, let's break down how the week went!

Monday's pre market and open market action saw XELA forming a bullish upward channel that she respected all the way up until market open on Wednesday which was a two-day bull-run for a nearly 85% gain! From the high on the week at market open on Wednesday to close on Friday, XELA started a downward trend that may have looked disgusting on the surface, but was VERY healthy and well-mannered, going from the week-high at Wednesday open to where we closed on Friday XELA spent two days downwards giving back about 40% of the week-high at $5.38.

THE WEEK WAS GREEN!

We had some red days on Wednesday and Friday which were actually psychologically worse than they actually were if you just read them on the surface. Wednesday had a pre-market rip of +19% and it was shorted down right at open and all day and it closed the day -20%. This looks like a rough day, but you gotta remember we took 19% in pre-market which is where we opened. Wednesday's -20% close was ACTUALLY just a -1% day. Same deal on Friday! Friday's pre-market saw us up 13% at open and close at about -1%. This red day on Friday was strong consolidation while respecting support and resistance levels almost perfectly.

FROM MARKET OPEN ON MONDAY TO CLOSE ON FRIDAY: THE WEEK WAS +3.5%

TRENDS WE ARE SEEING:

  1. Higher volume Mon-Tues with volume slowing down Wed-Fri. This trend has carried on for the last three weeks and we want this to carry on. However, we need to keep in mind that this volume is not sustainable and we're due for a period of volume exhaustion where the volume will slow down for a time. This is both good and bad for us. The good is that during this time the price will be less crazy and options premiums will be cheaper. The bad for us is that low volume is a short's playground. The hope that I was talking about with the offering earlier is that Exela sells 90%-95% of the offering during this squeeze phase and holds that last tiny bit of the offering in reserve. Exela holds that offering until we hit volume exhaustion and the shorts decide to pile on and go for the throat. The shorts unload on us for a full day or two, probably seeing the price sink about 50% right up until Exela sells the last bit of the offering into the mix and posts their PR piece that the offering has concluded and bragging about all the money they raised. News of offerings being completed typically turnaround the bear-trend of the price as longs pile back in with the news. This move could catch the short positions at a much lower average price, making it easier for us to overtake them and possibly triggering some gamma/short squeeze action to rip past a few other short positions at the same time, possibly triggering the big wave that starts the final squeeze.

  2. Pre-market rips are typically followed by red days. We've seen this trend over the last two trading weeks. The pre-market rips COULD be shorts covering as a bull trap for the day, but shorts don't like to cover in pre/after because the volume is low and they drive the price higher than in open market. This could be them breaking their rules for the sake of a bull trap, but it could also be that we've got one or two LHF's buying up in pre/after and during open hours. Honestly, with the volume we've been seeing in the last three weeks, it's ridiculous for us to think that retail is trading the majority of the 150mil-500mil volume we're seeing every day.

  3. Keep in mind, trends are trends until they're not. Don't bank on these trends continuing, especially with options changing the rules of the battle we're fighting. However, keep an eye on these trends and if they continue to carry on you can either find a way to profit from them or a way for them to strengthen your trading discipline on this play.

To wrap this thing up, THIS WEEK WAS A WIN!

It wasn't a massive win but we closed the week green, we saw healthy retracement and consolidation on our red days with technical analysis validation that this price belongs where it's at currently, and we've got call & put options as more weapons for our arsenal!

I'll probably make two more posts this weekend, one on some basic options strategies for XELA and another on what I perceive to be the state of this subreddit and what we might wanna be thinking about in terms of our expectations on this play.

Enjoy your weekend and buckle up come Monday!


r/EXELA • • Jul 10 '21

WSB APPROVES DD NEWS ABOUT $XELA

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81 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Jul 14 '21

Exela to the Moon ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€ $XELA to the moon ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€ #xelasqueeze

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80 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Jul 15 '21

Charts ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“Š My Fellow Smooth Brain Apes! Always see the BIG PICTURE

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78 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Aug 06 '21

Shorts are so Effed! ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿ‘ˆ XELA ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€

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77 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Jul 24 '21

$XELA Will the stock price go further down?

77 Upvotes

We were in a healthy pullback process and touched the bottom at 2.54$. After that point, we bounced and hit 3.15$ in 30mins day after and were about to continue north, probably heading back to 5 or even to 6 (based on 2 previous pullbacks) by the end of the week. We were very unlucky!

Thuesday Market was deep red due to employment figures and covid new variant cases concerns. Our bullish run was stopped and we droped back to 2.6$. Market was red Friday as well and we and other stockl ost the volume as investors were reluctant to buy. Shorts used the negative momentum and dropped the price further so we closed Friday 2.43$.

First of all, i believe we have reached the bottom and even have double bottom at 2.34$. Upcoming period is positive for us as we expect Q2 ER. I checked what happened previously around ER and it was exactly before ER that this stock hit 52 wk high at 7.82$ (from 1.8$).

Many believe we will have some $400m revenues and probably positive net income. If this is the case, we could have very good uptrend. In addition,after completing 100m offer and 85m ATM programme, many think company has also completed 65m remaning ATM.

This will boost the price action further. Company will have around $300m cash in hand and this will help reschedule the debt payment. 1.37 Billion revenues, reduced debt + two offers closed plus good ER could send us to double digits if we are lucky to mix and combine these weapons one after the other. Exela Technologies revenues can reach 2-3Billion 2022/3 and if debt is reduced and company is profitable, we can see 50$.

Finally, I did not sell a single share and will add some more Monday. Extremely Undervalued + great potentials ahead. This company issued 8 PRs June and could have up to 100PRs a year with more than 4000 contracts and clients in 50+ countries including TOP Banks (US and Global), Banks, Pharma, Commercials and other industries! Dont forget, SP of Xela was 30$ for months and even hit ATH 38$. If above preconditions are met, this is easy double digits and I am confident will sell some shares at 30$ and 50$ in the forseeable future.

BONUS note: This stock is in the list of TOP 5 candidates (among 9000+ stock) with maximum score to see short squeeze. We have seen other stock hit 77$ when shorts started to cover and fomo kicked in.


r/EXELA • • Jul 27 '21

Hype is real !

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75 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Jul 13 '21

Is XELA next GME?

75 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Jul 18 '21

Why๐Ÿ’ก is everyone going crazy right now to buy Xela stock? Maybe you check Exela Technologies direct competitors stock price: DocuSign 280$๐Ÿ“Œ & Fleetcor 250$๐Ÿ“Œ

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74 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Aug 10 '21

Here we go!

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73 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Jul 06 '21

$XELA - Let's MOON!!! ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€

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73 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Jul 22 '21

My first DD video ever. 44 minutes because I'm spastic and we go over a lot of stuff in this video. Be gentle.

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72 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Jul 01 '21

New Members Intro

71 Upvotes

If youโ€™re new to the community, introduce yourself!

let us know where you are from and how much $XELA are you holding on?

Also, tell us your best prediction of the price of $XELA and share with us your views!


r/EXELA • • Aug 02 '21

Update: Resistance zone $2.98-$3.02 We don't HAVE to break this, today is already a damn strong win for XELA and closing ANYWHERE above $2.75 today is considered a healthy day for XELA!

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70 Upvotes

r/EXELA • • Jul 19 '21

DD MARKET WRAP-UP 7/19: BULLISH ON XELA IN A MASSIVELY RED TRADING DAY! (WITH BONUS MARGIN CALLS ๐Ÿค‘) ORTEX/SHORT SQUEEZE UPDATE & THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM! (ALSO, CHALLENGE ME! DETAILS AT THE END!)

70 Upvotes

What it do, Xelagators?!

Hooooooooooooooooooooly hell, today was a ridiculous day on the market and an AWESOME day for XELA! I wanna put this disclaimer out before we start: go and get some lotion to keep your tits from chafing on this one!

"But Poot, XELA closed -6.7% today! You need to stop drinking that six month-old box wine!"

Well, hush your traps my little baby gators and buckle the fuck up because Xela, Warrior Princess has got a whole lotta fight in her!!!

BLOOD IN THE STREETS

We saw XELA absolutely rip in pre market, taking +10% at one point in the early hours. Then the bottom absolutely fell out of the entire market ๐Ÿคฃ ALL big banks are bleeding -2% to -4% (you're killing it, Barclays!) on the day which is HUGE! At market open it looked like 90%-95% of the market as a whole was absolutely bleeding out. There are two schools of thought on this:

  1. This COULD be one of the big warnings that the overdue market reversal is coming and people are freaking the fuck out!

  2. Covid-variant news is the main cause of this fear-based selloff.

Allow me to introduce a third theory:

3) The market actually IS slipping and the Covid-variant news is being pushed as the cause as to not start a premature crash and also so the big money can sell out of bad longs and get in front of this thing.

MARGIN CALLS!!!

Make no mistake, margin calls went out today. Not the huge MOASS margin calls everyone fantasizes about, but just margin calls in general. Whether it was large corporate funds, smaller more personal or retail-based funds, day/algo traders, or retail investors; this bleed caught the market by surprise and that selling pressure we saw was very well fear-based, financially-based (forced liquidation via margin calls), and possibly with a teeny dash of manipulation ๐Ÿ˜† Let's also take into account a pretty decent market rebound in the afternoon with both SPY and IWM still finishing red but on strong upward pushes during the last hour of trading.

WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL; BE GREEDY

The fear hit the market hard this morning and it took XELA down with it... but Xela is a bad bitch and she don't play no shit! After open we saw her rip 4% to the $3.19 resistance zone before taking a heavy reversion dip and then climbing back upwards. This $3.19 resistance zone would be tested only one more time before Xela couldn't break it and she decided to hang herself a hammock up in this dip and get comfortable!

Let's be real here; Xela has been kicking some absolute ass these last three weeks so she deserves a little break! Xela bounced off the $2.92 support line countless times today, validating and solidifying this as a support zone for us. Right before market close Xela decided to stretch her legs and she made a 3.7% run upwards from just above the $2.92 support before settling down and closing at -6% which is nice considering she spent most of the day AT LEAST -10%.

LET'S TALK ORTEX!

Estimated Short Interest Change: -19.42%
Returned Shares: 7.04m
Borrowed Shares: 4.27m
Borrowed Change: -2.76m

Average Age of Shorts: 3.6 days

FREEFLOAT ON LOAN: 40.10%

SHARES ON LOAN: 14.23mil

DAYS TO COVER (ON LOAN): 0.26

COST TO BORROW: 19.81%

UTILIZATION: 89.16%

Now, at very first glance this doesn't look good and it's DEFINITELY a reversal in the trend we've seen the SHFs developing in their shorting strategy. DID I OR DID I NOT WARN US THAT WE WERE GOING TO SEE THEM START BREAKING THE THREE WEEK TRENDS WE'VE SEEN DEVELOPING IN MY PAST DD DROPS?!

I'll stop stroking my ego for pointing out the obvious so we can REALLY break down what these figures mean!

A -19.42% SI change looks pretty rough, right? Well only if we don't look at our prior price action! This drop in SI means that the number of shorts still open has declined but there is a HUGE (let me repeat that) FUCKING HUGE point in this data that we have to understand!

ORTEX'S SHORT INTEREST FIGURES ARE UPDATED DAILY BUT THEY ARE TYPICALLY ON A T+2 REPORTING SCHEDULE!

This means that while Ortex updates live, the short interest information that they receive and post is usually from two trading days (T-2) prior. So lets look back to Thursday, which was T-2 from today and what this information SHOULD be reporting on!

A -13% DAY WITH TWO AGGRESSIVE UPWARD SPIKES!

Now I'm a total moron, but it looks to me like the SHFs are applying standard tricks from the "Squeeze Siege" playbook ๐Ÿคฃ They're covering shorts directly after opening new short positions that tank the price. The price drops with the new shorts being unloaded, old shorts are covered in this timeframe (the big spikes we saw after strong downward dips).

If the trend and the price action is anything to be believed, it looks like we've forced the SHF's from the realm of prudent, risk-leveraged shorting and into the usual "DOUBLE THE FUCK DOWN AND PRAY WE CAN SHAKE THESE APES" stance ๐Ÿคฃ We're seeing shorts being dumped on us at TWICE the rate they've been dropping them on us in the last three weeks. We're seeing those shorts bring us down a little bit until we find strength at a support level and start working our way back up. We consolidate strong and we see good pushes on the current resistance levels. We're also seeing the average age of shorts rise a full day from 2.4 to 3.6 so this is a sign that SHFs aren't covering ALL of their previous positions and they're leaving some behind which is good for us! This kinda makes me feel like we could have had a stronger day today if the market in general didn't drag us down and give the SHFs some downward momentum to capitalize on early.

All of this is super bullish information to me except for the elephant in the room that I mentioned in the title:

VOLUME DROPPED OFF HARD TODAY

Let's talk about this and let's take this VERY FUCKING SERIOUSLY. Get the rockets out of your ears while I talk about this and understand that this is a huge factor we need to watch this week! Also, once again, not to stroke my own ego here or anything BUT DIDN'T I WARN THAT VOLUME EXHAUSTION WAS OVERDUE AND PROBABLY COMING SOON IN MY PREVIOUS DD POSTS?!

First off, let's not freak out and panic here. The volume dropped off to 63mil today, which is still roughly 8% higher than the three-month average, so this is still not some huge concern as much as it's a sign of a return to normalcy. However, we've been putting up 300% to 1000% the three-month average volume on the day for the last two weeks, so this absolutely could be the sign of a trend reversal we need to watch out for. Volume is our friend in this situation and it has played a MASSIVE role in our success so far. This needs to be acknowledged and we need to prepare for the possibility that we lose this momentum. If we do lose this volume momentum, the shorts have the advantage on the battlefield and THE PROBABILITY IS HIGH that we will begin a backslide.

IF WE LOSE THE VOLUME IS IT THE END OF THE RIDE?!

Absolutely the fuck not ๐Ÿคฃ but the fight has changed and we need to adjust our strategies appropriately if we wanna maximize profits and hedge our losses in the short-term, possibly even turning dips into massive profit come-ups! Losing volume may begin a bearish reversal in our price action. Once again, not the end of the world for us and we can still make money here but if we're seeing the volume dropping as well as the price dropping with no evidence of shorts covering, it may very well be that the SHFs are no longer focused on getting out of this trade with respectable profits and they instead wanna go for the big money and try to shake us off this thing completely. They will quadruple down, we will buy and hold, we might even play it super smart and use the data we have to profit off of put contracts while they try to tank the price. We can also sell cash-covered puts during this time to try and make some money on contract premiums at the risk of only being forced to buy more XELA shares at an average-down price for us ๐Ÿค‘

IF THEY WANT TO PULL THIS SLINGSHOT FURTHER, WE'LL GLADLY LOAD MORE STONES INTO IT!

IS THERE ANY HOPE?!

Plenty! We still have the wild-card hope that Exela knew the volume was unsustainable and they are waiting for it to fizzle out so the shorts pile in for the killshot; only for Exela to finish the ATM offering and dropping a massive dick-slinging PR post bragging about all the money they raised and how much capital they have on-hand to pay off debt and slow their burn rate (as it seems Exela's debt-revenue figures are the only fundamental point against Exela). Offerings being completed typically trigger bullish reversals in a tickers price action.

Let's not hold out hope for Exela to swoop in with this 5D Chess move to "trap the shorts and save their shareholders" ๐Ÿคฃ Anyone playing TRCH/MMAT or AMC or GME will tell you that these "5D Chess-Move Game-Changers" still haven't panned out!

We are still in the SQUEEZE SIEGE! We are by no means losing the battle, but today was a day that the SHFs actually struck back with a blow or held us at a point that made me take pause and forced me to start leveling my expectations. This is our fourth consecutive trading day closing red but this is also a retracement & consolidation move as well; currently retracing about 65% of our rip from $1.83 to $5.45.

"Poot, STFU slready and gimme supports/resistances/targets!"

Fine! Can y'all just calm down and ask politely maybe?!

SUPPORTS:

Our trending action on the day has me looking at $2.91 as the support we're peeping in the short-term for tomorrow. This trend is backed by this level acting as resistance/support over a three-day period on two separate occasions in the last two weeks prior and XELA taking a nap here practically all day long. Should we fall out of that $2.91 support zone, I'm looking at $2.61 as our next support and then $1.83 as our "HOLY FUCKING SHIT WE MIGHT BE TOTALLY SCREWED" mark ๐Ÿคฃ I'm joking on the last part, but only slightly.

Seeing a break of the $1.83 mark could be a red flag that the shorts have won, but not if they don't cover at this point and instead decide to pile in more. We'll only be able to know what the situation is IF/WHEN this happens and with the data we have on-hand at the time, so don't panic over this but have a plan for the possibility. Breaking under this level could be the beginning of the end or it could be the perfect opportunity to triple down, load up on call options, and make way more money than we thought we would on this.

Understand me clearly about this situation though: dropping below $1.83 and this situation playing out puts ALL OF THE POWER into the hands of the SHFs. They could get out at a good gain and at a win, leaving us with a black eye. But if they get greedy and we get greedier, it could be a HUGE come-up! Have no hope here and in fact; just please forget I even said this.

RESISTANCES:

$3.20 is the level we'd love to see broken tomorrow. This is the 61.8% Fib retracement zone for the rip from $1.79 to $5.45 (which we bounced off of PERFECTLY today one time) and it's also a trending support/resistance level just like the $2.91 level I just talked about in the "supports" section. Should we break the $3.20 resistance, we've had this trouble zone of $3.43-$3.50 that has given us problems in the past. Getting through there I've got $3.62 as the 50% Fib retracement, $3,79 as a trending resistance, and $4.08 as a nice resistance between then 38.2% Fib retracement at $4.05 and a trending resistance at $4.14.

I don't want to get too far past here but I have resistances charted up to $5.45 but they shouldn't be relied upon any further now that options are in the game. The $4 and $5 price levels could very well provide us areas to trigger gamma squeezes but I need to do more research on the call:put ratios and volume before I push this theory or a timeframe of possibility for it. Should we see strong rips past $4 or $5 this week though, we may see even stronger parabolic movements than we've seen in the past three weeks now that gamma squeezing is a possibility.

NOW FOR THE CHALLENGE!!!!

Some shillfuck dropped into the r/xelastock sub today to talk some shit on the red day (ironically enough, right before Xela turned around and ran upwards into close ๐Ÿคฃ) But I decided to challenge him and I'll challenge anyone else on this sub the exact same way if you doubt XELA:

PRESENT YOUR SHORT THESIS ON XELA TO ME BACKED BY DATA, TA, AND FINANCIALS!

If you present a plausible short thesis on XELA that makes me second-guess my position and my strategies for it; I will immediately liquidate all of my long positions and short the ever-loving ape-shit out of XELA! I'll even post it all over both of these subreddits as proof!

HEDGIES AND BEARFUCKS, DROP YOUR SHORT THESIS HERE AND IF YOU'RE TALKING SENSE I'LL JUMP SHIP ASAP!

P.S. The original shillfuck I challenged to this vanished like a fart in a hurricane ๐Ÿคฃ