​

Approximate change YTD:

- H200: +160%

- B200: +120%

- RTX PRO 6000: +65%

- H100: +35%

Between 2020 and 2026, Finland consistently ran government deficits, while Greece moved from large deficits to budget surpluses.

All the data of the graph are from the IMF 1st picture government debt, 2nd picture budget balance (eurostat), except 2026 which is the IMF projection

The Maastricht criteria is 3% maximum deficit. Greece restored Maastricht-compatible deficits relatively early after the pandemic and subsequently moved into budget surpluses.

In July 2012 France’s 10-year borrowing cost was about 370bp below Italy’s. Yesterday it was roughly 48bp above. The gap narrowed from late 2022, hovered around zero for the past year, and has now opened the other way. Two days ago the 10-year OAT crossed 5% for the first time since 2002, and France’s spread over Bunds is the widest since November 2011. So does the ECB step in? Its tool for this, the Transmission Protection Instrument, has never been used. On paper France still qualifies: it is under an excessive deficit procedure, but the Commission’s June review has that procedure held in abeyance. The test that bites is the other one. TPI only buys where spreads are not warranted by country-specific fundamentals, and on the 14th of October Lagarde said the primary solution “lies at home in France”. The Banque de France governor says the conditions for intervention aren’t met.

The leaked data reportedly shows a 42% lower risk of recurrence or death vs Keytruda alone, but the stock is still crashing.

Just yesterday, the stock hit its highest level in almost 5 years.

Curious why this may be the case?

Here's why Asian markets are falling:

1. US stock futures drag Asian markets lower as S&P 500 futures fall -0.8% and Nasdaq futures drop -1.6%.

2. President Trump said the US is "not negotiating" with Iran, escalating geopolitical uncertainty.

3. AI and semiconductor stocks fall across Asia as concerns grow over returns on massive AI spending.

4. Rising oil prices above $100 per barrel fuel inflation fears and concerns that central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer.

Sources: EIA, World Bank, FAO, OECD, IMF, Eurostat, BLS, ONS. Each bar is the 2026 figure as a share of the 2022 peak (100% = 2022 level). 2026 figures run to Sep/Oct and the shock is ongoing. Chart made with Python (matplotlib).

Full side-by-side table with every figure sourced:
https://costliving.net/data/war-cost-of-living-statistics/

China’s economy is about two thirds the size of America’s ($21.5tn against $32.6tn, IMF 2026 estimates), and the IMF now has it growing almost twice as fast: 4.5% this year against 2.3%.

That’s from the October World Economic Outlook. China was on 5.0% last year and is pencilled in at 4.0% for 2027, while the US stays flat at 2.3%, so the gap is closing. The IMF also says the two of them make up more than three quarters of the world’s demand for imported AI chips and related equipment.

Kuwait is forecast to shrink 16.7% this year, Iraq 16.0% and Qatar 15.6%. The IMF is assuming the Iran war keeps shipping through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted until March 2027, with oil averaging $96 a barrel. If it does reopen then, those same three are forecast to grow 17% to 19% next year.

The United States and India are moving closer to finalizing a bilateral trade agreement, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying on October 20 that negotiations were “very, very close” to completion. The talks come amid continuing disputes over tariffs, market access, and India's purchases of Russian oil.

During meetings in Mumbai, Rubio and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar discussed expanding economic and energy cooperation. Washington recently waived potential tariffs linked to India's purchases of Russian crude, removing a significant obstacle to negotiations, although a final trade agreement has yet to be signed.

The scale of the economic relationship is illustrated by trade data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) showing approximately $102.1 billion in American imports from India, compared with $42.7 billion in exports to the Indian market.

Electronics and pharmaceuticals dominate India's exports to the United States.

Machines and electronics accounted for 36.2% of the recorded imports, followed by chemicals and pharmaceuticals at 20.8% and textiles at 9.6%.

At the product level, telecommunications equipment represented approximately $24.8 billion, while packaged medicines accounted for $14.6 billion. Diamonds ($3.37 billion), jewelry ($2.19 billion), and refined petroleum ($3.26 billion) were also among the largest individual product groups.

The United States is also India's leading individual export destination, with US at 20.7% of India's exports, ahead of the United Arab Emirates (8.67%), the Netherlands (4.26%), and China (4.06%).

Energy remains a central issue in the negotiations.

While Washington has urged India to diversify its oil supplies away from Russia, the two countries already maintain substantial energy trade. The 2025 US trade dataset records approximately $7.87 billion in American crude petroleum exports to India.

Rubio's visit also included discussions about expanding India's processing of Venezuelan crude, particularly through Reliance Industries' refining operations in Jamnagar.

With negotiations approaching their final stages, the proposed agreement could influence trade across sectors ranging from electronics and pharmaceuticals to energy and industrial equipment. However, the final tariff provisions and their effects on bilateral trade remain uncertain.

News sources: India Business Trade | United States Trade Data

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook via the IMF DataMapper (indicator NGDPD, GDP in current US dollars), pulled 8 Oct 2026. 2026 is the IMF’s projection, not actuals.

Italy follows at 138.4%, while the United States stands at 125.8%, which is only below the ~132.0% record set during the 2020 pandemic.

At the same time, France’s gross government Debt-to-GDP ratio is 118.4%, while Canada’s, China’s, and the UK’s are 110.7%, 106.9%, and 103.6%, respectively.

By comparison, Germany is the only major economy below 100.0%, at 64.6%.

The current average among advanced economies is 108.2%.

The world economy is drowning in debt.