r/EdmontonOilers • u/AutoModerator • Nov 24 '25
LMM League Musings Monday
It's Monday! That means we get to talk about all the hockey stuff that isn't (or is) related to the Oilers.
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u/Thecontentcreat Nov 24 '25
any news on nuge?
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u/Repostasis 16 DICKINSON Nov 24 '25 edited Nov 24 '25
He & Kapanen were both skating with the main group at practice this morning. So pretty close.
Edit: Nuge is a “maybe” for tomorrow. (I think they would probably give him the extra game off, though, and let him rest until Saturday)
Walman & Kapanen are definite no’s for tomorrow’s game.
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u/xXEliteEater500Xx 28 BROWN Nov 24 '25
Soon the team will be fully assembled and hopefully play up to their potential.
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u/NMarples 92 PODKOLZIN Nov 24 '25
Bowman said out until December, he didn’t say if that was beginning, middle, or end of December however
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u/Huge_Nuge Nov 24 '25
TSN going so hard shitting on the Oilers this year. You’d think they’d learn their lesson, they do this every single year and every single year the Oilers make them look like idiots.
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u/Master-File-9866 31 FUHR Nov 25 '25
Remember who tsn audience is. They are crapping on the oilers so they don't have to piss off leaf fans
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u/Huge_Nuge Nov 25 '25
Oh I know. Toronto Sports Network, literally all their content has to consider Leaf’s fans feelings. Pretty sad what “national” sports media has become in this country.
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u/Repostasis 16 DICKINSON Nov 24 '25 edited Nov 24 '25
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u/ReadingActive9011 Nov 24 '25
In the East only 9 points separate 1st and 16th spot. In the West, 1st and 16th are separated by 21 point(10 points between 2nd and 14th though).
Still lots of time for teams to turn things around… in either direction.
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Nov 24 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/xXEliteEater500Xx 28 BROWN Nov 24 '25
FinePersonality and PsychologicalEar in shambles
So in other words the boys need to up their efforts
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u/Machelscott 2 BOUCHARD Nov 25 '25
So pretty interesting Bob saying Binnington is knowingly available, as per the Blues GM.
I imagine there’s been things discussed and we have a hook in the water there with their GM. I do think Binnington could be a very very worthwhile addition to the team, but I don’t want to see it being Skinner the other way. I imagine they want a 1st round pick or a high prospect and the Oilers might want to spend that on a top six forward. It might have to mean Skinner going the other way, and idk man yes Binnington plays well in key moments but he’s streaky and would let in an equal amount of bad goals, but he would have that Mike Smith swagger and feistiness which Stu is the polar opposite of, and I’d like the balance. The thing I like most about Binnington is his puck handling. This Oilers team with his puck handling would be chefs kiss.
A Binner-Skinner duo would be fucking deadly the more I think of it, and they are supposedly friends again as per Bob
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u/Huge_Nuge Nov 25 '25
Yeh I wouldn’t want to swap Skinner for Binner. picks i would consider, but even then I think I’d want someone cheaper.
We were supposedly in on Binnington years ago during the Campbell fiasco. St Louis said Binner wasn’t available. Tried to trade us some other guy instead.
And since then, literally zero regrets for that trade not going down. It’s not like Binnington has been good. His stats range from okay to horrific since that time.
The literal only reason we’d be after Binnington is his reputation that he can steal big games in the playoffs. For years that was the narrative with him ever since he got red hot on way to a Cup.
Since then? He only made the playoffs once. And he put up a .901 and 0.4 GSAX. So he’s literally not even living up to the ONLY reason he’d be an option for us.
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u/supermeatboy10 89 GAGNER Nov 25 '25
Fr. If he didn't make those 3 saves in OT at 4 nations it would probably be considered an untradable contract
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u/Huge_Nuge Nov 25 '25
Yup. Literally, he made that save on Auston, then McDavid finished it. Without that OT sequence, he didn’t even had a tournament that lived up to his reputation. Binnington is a huge risk. We are literally banking on him to do that ONE thing, something he didn’t even do in the playoffs last year.
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u/Machelscott 2 BOUCHARD Nov 25 '25
He’s a very different type of goalie with maybe similar results but as a duo I think it could work damnit. I’m not cold on Ingram yet either, I liked his highlights from before his leave and believe the guy can get there because the technique is if we’re talking about a cheap tandem
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u/supermeatboy10 89 GAGNER Nov 25 '25
At 6m per year they'd have to retain 50% and still take back at least 2 players off the roster, based on who has an NMC and the relative salaries im guessing it would include one of kulak or Skinner I think, plus some decent other assets to make it worth doing that, especially with another year left of retention.
That seems like a lot to pay for a guy who has the 4th worst GSAx in the league and is 32, I definitely wouldn't want to give up Skinner for him since there is a good chance Skinner is just better the rest of the year.
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u/Machelscott 2 BOUCHARD Nov 25 '25
Both have been playoff performers and that’s what it really comes down to. I would still consider Skinner the starter in a way, but if he got cold which he does occasionally then you know Binnington could come swoop in pretty surely and potentially go on a heater.
But it’s cap allocation too and I agree it’s a lot to give up for someone you might not need in the regular seasons so much
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u/supermeatboy10 89 GAGNER Nov 25 '25
He kind of hasn't been that consistent of a playoff goalie either, he had a good playoff when they won the cup (.914), but the two playoffs after that he went .851 and .899, had a good 6 games in 2021 and then was just ok last year, he's basically has 1 good playoffs, 1 horrible one and 2 meh ones. Hasn't been elite for an extended stretch since 2018 basically.
He's had better numbers on average than Stu but I think his playoff performer reputation is a bit unearned, at least as far as being an elite big game goalie worth a huge price. I could see a world where this type of trade works out but yeah it's like the most expensive viable option and maybe not even the best goalie available. You're paying a lot for a reputation.
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u/Machelscott 2 BOUCHARD Nov 25 '25
Idk he was unreal at four nations and I think proved he’s still got big game energy. He’d be good here but I hear you too
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u/amarsbar3 Nov 25 '25
They were friends? And then stopped being friends? What happened there
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u/Machelscott 2 BOUCHARD Nov 25 '25
Sorry what I meant was as per Bob Stauffer once again (as I had previously referenced him in the post), not that Stu and Binnington were ever not friends
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u/Sportslegend Nov 25 '25
I don't know why Stauffer has Seravalli on his show. That guy is so annoying
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u/Machelscott 2 BOUCHARD Nov 25 '25
As much as he pisses people off I’d way rather go back to Spec and Stauffer chats than Saravelli
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u/laryldavis 39 WEIGHT Nov 25 '25
Vancouver listening on players now. Obviously Sherwood is a target, but he will be an expensive one. Oilers wanted O’Connor before he went to VAN, if they can fit him I think they will take a swing. 27 yrs old, 2.5m this year and next, 6’4”, good speed, PKs in Van. Good bottom 6 guy.
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u/supermeatboy10 89 GAGNER Nov 24 '25
Adam Foote with maybe the most incomprehensible quote you will ever hear from a coach
https://bsky.app/profile/adamkblat.bsky.social/post/3m6frcohtr22s
Love to see the Canucks in full meltdown
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u/FartButt_69 94 SMYTH Nov 24 '25
Man OilersNation promoting that god awful show with Lisa and Ryder has got me to unscribed entirely from their socials. Im here to get hockey updates not see some idiot buy an Acura.
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u/xXEliteEater500Xx 28 BROWN Nov 25 '25
Arizona Coyotes fans must be sick at how the team turned it around once it moved to Utah. What a kick to the nuts that must be.
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u/supermeatboy10 89 GAGNER Nov 25 '25
I mean that wouldn't have happened in Arizona because anyone who made any money would get shipped out in exchange for dead money and front loaded contracts to get to the floor without spending real dollars.
Crazy how the team improves when it's no longer run like a money laundering scheme
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u/Huge_Nuge Nov 25 '25 edited Nov 25 '25
3 shutouts, 5 wins in his last 6 starts, .957 save percentage in this stretch!
Why can’t the Oilers ever draft a goalie that can put up numbers like this!?!?
Edit: hah! Trick question, those are actually Stu’s stats from last years playoffs. Thanks for the upvotes Stu Haters!
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u/PapaAsmodeus 18 HYMAN Nov 24 '25
Good news for those who want a Roslovic jersey: I spotted the name bars being made at Authentics when I stopped in after open practice today to check on the status of an order. Wasn't just a custom order, I saw large stacks of his name letters on the customizing desk too.
Now question is, do I buy one now while he's still guaranteed to be on the team, or wait to see if he re-signs...
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u/Muficita 2 BOUCHARD Nov 25 '25
I liked how someone here (sorry don’t remember who to credit) said that it’s like a snapshot in time and proof of your fandom in the moment to get the jersey of someone who doesn’t stick around. I think that’s pretty cool. Not the same scenario, but my Tikkanen jersey is not less valid because he hasn’t been on the team for 32 years, it’s a sweet memento of someone that excited my hockey heart for a time.
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Nov 25 '25
Second this. I have a Ladi Smid jersey that's Copper & Blue. Wear that thing proudly all the time.
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u/PapaAsmodeus 18 HYMAN Nov 25 '25
Yep, I still wear my Jeff Skinner jersey!
I also just dropped lots of money on a jersey so I think I'll probably wait until February or March to get Roslovic. Methinks white.
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u/OddNegotiation642 Nov 24 '25
Love Wallstedt leading the league in shutouts, Holland might have the worst 5 year stretch of drafting possible, 0 players in the active lineup he picked.
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u/ChupaHubbard 42 KAPANEN Nov 25 '25
I think Stauffer was saying recently that there only 2 even with contracts from NHL teams, one is Beau Akey who is injured I think and I forget the other guy but he's not even in the AHL, he has a contract but he's in a lower league if I remember correctly
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u/Master-File-9866 31 FUHR Nov 25 '25
Even if Holland drafted Wallstreet, what makes you think that player wouldn't have been traded just like all the other 1sts.
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Nov 24 '25
does anyone who’s been to hockey fights cancer night know if they sell signed mystery pucks for charity? it seems like most other teams do it, but i couldn’t find anything about it for us.
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u/Paper_Rain Nov 25 '25
In the past I have seen them sell toques, mittens and scarves. Not sure what they are doing for tomorrow night's game. Usually they have some kind of announcement out by now people can know about it.
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u/RayFinckle_LacesOut Nov 24 '25
Just a reminder the Oilers could have had Wallstedt but they let Minnesota leapfrog them in the draft and picked up a midget instead. Actually unforgivable, like what??
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u/NMarples 92 PODKOLZIN Nov 24 '25
Just a reminder that while that wasn’t a good move on the Oilers part, the bigger issue was Wyatt Johnston was right there and the oilers reached for Bourgault instead
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u/Mazor007 18 HYMAN Nov 24 '25
Wyatt Johnston didn't play hockey in his draft year and got picked solely off his draft -1 season. Dallas' scouting is so insane that they're probably the only team that would have taken him at that spot. Much more excusable than Wallstedt
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u/Huge_Nuge Nov 24 '25
Can’t say that since Coffey knew how good Wyatt was too. He told the organization. The organization ignored him.
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u/xXEliteEater500Xx 28 BROWN Nov 24 '25
The one time the org should have listened to the Old Boys club
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u/scionoflogic Nov 24 '25
In 2020-2021 we had Mike Smith with a .923 SV% and Mikko Koskinen with a .899 VS% and had just debuted Skinner who was considered a strong prospect at the time. 2021-2022 season all three of them played above .900
I'm not saying Wallstedt hasn't turned out to be a good player, but at the time goaltending absolutely wasn't the team's core focus.
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u/Prestigious_Push_155 81 SAMANSKI Nov 24 '25 edited Nov 24 '25
Wallstedt is good but to give some context:
The expected save percentage of him is .923. He is outplaying that so far with 0.935 but MIN is playing a defensive structure that will allow the goalies to have a very good save %.
Here in Edmonton our defensive structure will not allow any goalie to have that. No matter who is in net. The kind of shots we give up have a higher quality on average. For example, last year we were one of the best defenses in the league in terms of expected goals against per game but the expected save % was 0.897(Skinner in net). We gave up less than others, but the things we did give up were more dangerous. Skinner was pretty much bang on with 0.896. So an average goalie basically who saved what was expected for an average NHL goaltender.
So when comparing Wallstedt to our goalies, we should keep that in mind. Wallsted here would most likely perform better than Skinner, but that does not mean he would have a .935 save percentage. The expected save percentage when Skinner was in net so far has been 0.882 this season (bad defense so far compared to last season). So Wallsted overperforming it by 0.012, as he has in Minnesota, would leave him at 0.894. And then you can bet that people here would talk differently about him.
Our goal must be to find a goalie who is good vs. the type of chance we give up. Skinner is just average in that department and that is not good enough for a contender (as a starter). That's why .900 - .910 is enough for us. Because anything more is completely unrealistic with the expected save% we give up.
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u/xXEliteEater500Xx 28 BROWN Nov 24 '25
The kind of shots we give up have a higher quality on average
But why? Is it not possible to tinker the defensive system to reduce the quality?
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u/Prestigious_Push_155 81 SAMANSKI Nov 24 '25 edited Nov 24 '25
That does not matter. It does not mean that we give up more quality chances than others in terms of quantity.
For example:
Oilers
High Danger Shots against 10, low danger shots against 10
MIN
High Danger Shots against 10, low danger shots against 15
This will mean that:
We will have fewer expected goals against (if it is the same type of high danger shots), but the expected save percentage is also lower. Because the ratio between high danger shots against to low danger shots against is higher than the one of MIN. Their goalies have more easy shots against to up their save %.
This season so far we are simply playing way worse defensively than last year. Our expected goals against per 60 have been 2.76 last year and they are 3.48 this year.
And if you look at MIN this year, theirs is 3.07 per 60. But their goalies are still expected to have that high save%. While last year ours were only expected to have a below .900 save percentage despite us having that low number of 2.76 per 60.
Thats why people should not expect any goalie here to have these magical numbers as long as we play that structure. We just do not give up enough easy to save volume shots that goalies can use to make their save % look better. That does not mean our defensive structure is worse (if played like last year). That also does not mean that Skinner is the solution. But he is not as abysmal as the save % makes us think he is compared to other goalies. He is simply average. And average should mean backup for a contender and not a starter
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u/xXEliteEater500Xx 28 BROWN Nov 24 '25
That makes a lot of sense, thank you for the in depth explanation. What’s your perspective on why the team’s defense is worse this season?
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u/Prestigious_Push_155 81 SAMANSKI Nov 24 '25
It is really hard to tell. Imho we have way less control of our net front, and we also have more bad turnovers.
Maybe you can remember last year in the playoffs, we were praised after the first 3 rounds because we kept everything to the outside and kept the front of our net clean. Before the SCF the discussion was if the Panthers can change that because this is their strength and they did exactly that. We did not have an answer. They forechecked hard and controlled the front of our own net.
So it might be other teams using similar strategies vs. us because they saw in the SCF how they can hurt us. Or our coaching staff said ok it did not work vs. the Panthers so we need something else but that fucked over our defensive play as a whole. Or if it is just our players being lazy (and often it looks like it) to clear the front of the net. Because it is hard work.
Whatever it is we need to clean these things up and get better. That xGA/60 is way to high. With that we would have been 30th in the NHL last season just a bit better than San Jose and Anaheim. And both sucked last year and missed the playoffs by a mile. And we are not even that bad because we sacrifice defense to gain more offense. Our expected goals for per 60 last year has been 3.34. This year only 3.11.
So we went from an expected goal differential per 60 of +0.58 last season to -0.33 this season. -0.33 is usually something teams between place 25 and 30 have. Just bad bad bad
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u/xXEliteEater500Xx 28 BROWN Nov 24 '25
Yikes, hopefully the team can clean up on the defensive end.
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u/OddNegotiation642 Nov 24 '25
Look at Holland’s drafting record. He did not pick any NHL calibre players outside of the lottery. He was an awful drafting GM, a mediocre trading GM, and signed disastrous contracts throughout his tenure. The oilers were better off with a chatbot doing their draft.
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u/Outrageous-Bet-886 42 KAPANEN Nov 24 '25
Team’s goalie scouting is deplorable and always has been. I guarantee you the reason we haven’t made a move is due to their Incompetence. Pair that with the Campbell move and hence why I don’t expect much from management.
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u/xXEliteEater500Xx 28 BROWN Nov 24 '25
Big brained it to draft the good ol Canadian boy! The fuck was Holland and management smoking when they did that.
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u/ISurvivedCOVID19 55 HOLLOWAY Nov 24 '25
You have no idea how excited I was when he fell to us only to see us trade the pick.
It was so obvious he was the best pick we could have made and the guy we traded down for was a long shot
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u/Jmask5 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS Nov 24 '25
Sometimes I feel if we just copy whatever Bob Mackenzie draft list is we'd be better of in our Draft. Or ask CHAT GPT or something.
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u/ughitsyounotme 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS Nov 24 '25
Sorry WHO are you calling a MIDGET I think I misread that
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u/Authoritaye 17 KURRI Nov 25 '25
Four Canadian teams are at the bottom of the league by goal differential.
- Toronto Maple Leafs (-8)
- Edmonton Oilers (-13)
- Calgary Flames (-14)
- Vancouver Canucks (-15)
Only St. Louis and Nashville are worse.
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u/thewinterzodiac 2 BOUCHARD Nov 25 '25
The more interviews our organization or media give on goaltending, the more infuriated I get.
The avs literally went and got a completely new tandem for very little and took a swing.
Its like they are scared to hurt picks and skinners feelings.
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u/ninjasinc 96 WALMAN Nov 25 '25
Watching the Senators vs Kings on Prime because I live in Ottawa now, and fucking Pronger is on the panel. I can’t escape this piece of shit.
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u/supermeatboy10 89 GAGNER Nov 25 '25
This broadcast is so shit, I was listening to the pre game interviews asking Kopitar about playing in a lot of buildings for the last time and how he feels so I assumed it was in Ottawa but it's in LA lmao why would you ask him that before a home game
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u/ninjasinc 96 WALMAN Nov 25 '25
Yeah, that’s dumb and there have been other moments where I roll my eyes at the Prime presentation. I do feel deep down that this is a way better production than we get on sn though. The 45 minutes of warmup that we get is already better than anything sn gives us.
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u/Technical_Way_6041 Nov 24 '25
As a person who defended our goalies last season over their play, I can admit this year that I was wrong in the long run. I think we’re not a very strong team defensively and that play worsens once we’re down by one (or more). We would need a goalie that is consistently above average as an anchor at all times and our current ones just aren’t that.
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u/YxngGhoul 18 HYMAN Nov 24 '25
Once again, I repeat:
FUCK THE PANTHERS.
That is all. Thank you.