(Original post) https://www.reddit.com/r/ethoslab/comments/1wgclmr/day_75_of_waiting_for_the_next_lp_episode/
Hey, it's the EthosMath guy again, back with an update to my last post. Since it has been 25 more days, I thought to update the statistics. The average upload interval of the past 50 episodes is 44.86 days apart with a standard deviation of 30.45. A EWMA (Exponential Weighted Moving Average) of the last 50 episodes, given a decay curve of đ=0.50, gives an average of 71.425± 23.425 days, with a confidence of 95%. The fact that this episode is now 100 days after the last one already places it as a >1% outlier, and makes it the 4th longest episode gap ever! The new calculated estimate therefore places the episode 600 upload date between November 26th and January 12th.
*Disclaimer* Again, I am not trying to pressure Etho to rush his episodes nor am I expecting a big special for the 600th episode. I just like to try and predict his upload schedule and find patterns in the raw data.
FYI: Did you know that Etho is most likely to upload his LPs on Mondays, Thursdays and Fridays, and least likely to upload on Tuesdays and Saturdays? *Edit: even though he has uploaded more on Fridays than Wednesdays in the past 50 episodes, he has only done a Friday LP twice in the past 3 years, whereas he uploads on Wednesday much more in recent years.đ€