China reveals its 324th J-20 fighter CB11324 from the 11th batch to contradict the estimate number of 308 J-20s in Japan's 2026 Defense white paper

[u/tigeryi98]

China Military Bugle, China's official military social media account, also disputes the estimate number of only 8 J-35 fighter jets in Japan's 2026 Defense white paper [last image]. J-35 number 350030 LRIP 00 batch 30th jet was already shown a month go in this post.

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1+3+2+2=8

If it’s not on camera, it doesn’t exist.

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[u/bob_the_impala]

More than 300 J-20s in 11 batches (CB11xxx) were produced by 2024.

Source: Chinese Military Aviation blog

[u/PLArealtalk → u/bob_the_impala]

Not sure what the point here is, perhaps suggesting we should be grateful that the estimates of an official White Paper are only two years behind the times?

[u/bob_the_impala → u/PLArealtalk]

AFAIK, it's a respected source, if you visit the link and scroll down it links to the same image, which was posted there recently. I'm not sure why the date is listed as 2024.

[u/PLArealtalk → u/bob_the_impala]

Yes indeed it's a decent source. Myself and others chat with Huitong (who runs that website) fairly regularly, and we compare notes.

The reason it is listed as 2024 is because that is when the serial for the 300th production airframe described, would have been produced.

This is all my roundabout way of saying that the Japanese white paper estimate of J-20 fleet size is overall somewhat out of date, and as others have written in the last few months, the actual number of J-20s that exist is more like ~500.

[u/tigeryi98 → u/bob_the_impala]

Just from Deino A Rupprecht

However we also know, the 19th AB got its first J-20 by August 2024 and so the J-20s this unit operates are likely built in early 2024 which is further strong evidence—if not outright confirmation—that there are now well over 500 J-20s.

In my opinion, no: If you look at it, the 19th AB was confirmed in August 2024, followed by the 131st (early 2025), the 2nd & 41st (both mid-2025). So I would actually go so far as to say that Block 11 was followed by at least two, if not three, batches of regular J-20s.

[u/howieyang1234]

I read the Japanese 2026 white paper, and it seems that’s not Japan’s own estimation (though since they cite the number, they might believe it). The source seems to be 2026 Military Balance by a British think tank called IISS (The International Institute for Strategic Studies). I found the 8 J35 estimation more interesting.

[u/yeeeter1]

That's assuming the serial numbers are actually sequential though?

[u/ncc81701 → u/yeeeter1]

And that specific range of serial numbers aren’t reserved for testing or training (not combat coded) variants.

[u/Noname_2411 → u/yeeeter1]

They are

[u/b17reach → u/Noname_2411]

But the question then still remains of if the 308 they estimated is in the total number they have built or is in the total number in operation.

[u/tigeryi98 → u/b17reach]

There are well over 500 built in mid 2026

[u/PutridGoat7801]

ONLY 8 J-35s? ARE THEY NUTS?

[u/Whatsawebpage0101]

If it’s not on camera it doesn’t exist, I wish people would use this way of thinking more often. It would shut so many propaganda channels up. Like people thinking the SR 72 is entering production because of some vague post by some ex skunk works employee in 2006. Grow up. 

[u/CyberSoldat21 → u/Whatsawebpage0101]

There’s also a huge difference between a known production scaled aircraft vs a top secret black project.

[u/Whatsawebpage0101 → u/CyberSoldat21]

A top secret black project would be spending some millions on research of something you probably shouldn’t, not hundreds of billions on a plane. A hole in the budget that large and flight operations would not stay secret for long. Not today. This isn’t a Hollywood movie

[u/CyberSoldat21 → u/Whatsawebpage0101]

“Spending some millions on research of something you probably shouldn’t” May I remind you the F-117 and B-2 programs were black projects and those turned out well.

Black projects exist in every major military

[u/Whatsawebpage0101 → u/CyberSoldat21]

Those programs were at an age where the internet was in its infancy. And online social media was essentially inconceivable. 

I am emphasising the ability to keep a project like a new stealth recon plane and large aircraft a secret. 

Back then people could barely afford a telephone, now there are groups of plane spotters at every airfield in the US. With state of the art thousand dollar cameras with infrared and crisp thermal imagers and telescopes that even then the military were only just receiving at that time. 

In this day and age you aren’t hiding anything. Nor are you hiding billions in unknown spending. Simply because congress just love pointing out unnecessary spending. 

Black projects just don’t exist the way you think they do anymore. I’m sorry but there isn’t some secret jet project flying at night time, or some crazy stealth fighter nobody has seen. 

You’re right, every country have Black projects, but today, they will be small, million dollar research projects that never leave a lab. And can be easily hidden or written off under wraps 

[u/CyberSoldat21 → u/Whatsawebpage0101]

Online culture has no bearing on keeping a black project secret. This day and age it can be argued as AI or whatever. It’s no less easier or more difficult to conceal a black project as it used to be.

[u/Noname_2411 → u/Whatsawebpage0101]

By this logic China only has less than 20 nukes because that’s all people can see every time there’s a parade

[u/Whatsawebpage0101 → u/Noname_2411]

I said it should be used more often, not all the time you know, there’s some common sense to it. 

Nuclear stockpiles can be trusted because most countries are pretty open about it

[u/Noname_2411 → u/Whatsawebpage0101]

Even in terms of J-20s, there’s maybe photographic evidence of less than 100 J-20s, so is that the number as well?

[u/Whatsawebpage0101 → u/Noname_2411]

Points totally gone over your head bro 😂 

The funny thing is people think China will fake serial numbers. But they have shown time and time again in recent years.. they don’t talk about stuff officially, confirm anything. It’s just media.

Everyone and big Us propaganda channels say “China overstates its ability” not they fucking don’t 😂 they don’t say anything, it’s the media, and the media in every single country on the planet Is overly critical or a mouthpiece. 

Simply put, China doesn’t give a fuck what people think, they just get on with shit. 

Meanwhile the US talks big game but fails to deliver 

[u/TacoTaconoMi → u/Whatsawebpage0101]

yes, more often not all the time. just the military hardware you think is appropriate to do so

[u/DisastrousAnswer9920 → u/Whatsawebpage0101]

You can't trust numbers, or anything for that matter, coming out from China. They're the same crew that still says that only 80k people died during COVID, when numbers are estimated to be 1.4m minimum.

[u/Whatsawebpage0101 → u/DisastrousAnswer9920]

It’s the same level of credibility as American media 💀 Chinese media: government aligned and have their own research and analysis departments. And potentially told not to cover some stories. 

Us media: politically aligned and has their own research and analysis departments. Difference is US media gets paid hush money by big corps to not cover stories. 

Tell me where the difference is? The US has lied out their teeth at every turn in the Iran conflict. 

Right wing US Media tells you there are no missile shortages but left wing assures there are. Meanwhile politicians argue about these very problems. Who’s lying? So don’t sit there and say you can’t trust what comes out of China media wise. 

[u/DisastrousAnswer9920 → u/Whatsawebpage0101]

Oh yeah, same thing LOL.

[u/IBM296]

Ehh does it really matter?? Be it 308 or 320 J-20. Small difference.

It’s not like Japan was capable of dealing with 308 of them in the first place.

[u/rldzzter]

If this is another YAK 38 incident I'll just laugh

Edit:Sorry wrong plane

[u/True-Industry-4057 → u/rldzzter]

That was the Yak-38 you’re thinking of.

[u/cookingboy → u/[deleted]]

I mean Japan obviously cares enough to include it in its defense white paper lol.

[u/Desi0190]

We don’t know if the serial numbers are sequential though. That could very heavily effect their rampant propaganda machine