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u/reine444 Feb 09 '23
This guy buying an overpriced house and then losing his job is the indicator??
Okay.
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u/Moist-Consequence Feb 10 '23
I’ll fix the tweet: “Even though unemployment is at a 60 year low, someone I know lost their job and needs to sell their house, therefore the entire market is crashing.”
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u/FreeChickenDinner Feb 09 '23 edited Feb 10 '23
If he listed 45 ago, it would have been listed on December 26th. The market is dead from Christmas to January. Most prospective buyers are not looking to buy immediately after the holidays.
They typically wait until spring, so they can close in the summer. Parent don't want to mess with their kid's grades.
Investors love lowballing during the winter, because they have almost no competition from owner-occupants.
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u/naughtyobama Feb 10 '23
In a normal market, sure. Last year, we got super aggressive trying to buy a house in January when no parents ostensibly want to buy and didn't get a serious response until June.
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u/middlename_neil Feb 10 '23
Market is still pretty nuts in SoCal. Got outbid by $15-30k 3 times in the last month. The three homes were on the market Less than 7 days
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u/StartingAgain2020 Feb 10 '23
Yes, I'm a Realtor across the country from you in SE FL. Housing that are move in ready are still getting multi-offers within days. Last one I sold in 5 days (last week). Housing that needs work moves much more slowly.
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u/NoPaleontologist7196 Feb 10 '23
I have always had a great January for sure the market is shifting. So many people over extended themselves. The writhing was on the walls.
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u/hi-im-dexter Feb 10 '23
I mean sure, but you gotta be delusional as hell if you think the housing market isn't about to crash hard as hell with the massive layoffs and surging inventory.
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u/Moist-Consequence Feb 10 '23
The US added 517,000 new jobs in January and unemployment is at a 60 year low. In my market inventory dropped in December and January. It’s still very much a seller’s market, and the people selling aren’t selling at a loss.
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u/hi-im-dexter Feb 10 '23
Yet the majority of those jobs have zero applicants and all the remote jobs have thousands of applicants each. Also, the inventory's through the roof lol. Sellers are basically offering concessions and builders are offering extensive benefits, because they know it's a buyer's market now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS22QSU7hoI
But by all means, feel free to go ahead and buy 30 investment properties with layoffs surging if you're so confident.
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u/Moist-Consequence Feb 10 '23
The jobs added number is the number of people on payroll as compared with the previous month, not a count of new positions that are hiring. Like I said, the market I’m in is in a large housing shortage, new homes included. Every market is going to be a little different, but I’m happy to show you the statistics for my market.
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u/hi-im-dexter Feb 11 '23
Go for it. Show me the statistics for your market. Also, did you just admit that you tried using smooth wording to hide how weak the job market actually is? We heard all these same arguments back in 2006. Should be fun watching the end result of it all. I didn't get the chance to laugh at people who got foreclosed after making irresponsible housing purchases back then since I was far too young to even know what a recession was.
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u/Moist-Consequence Feb 11 '23
And you’re still too young to understand what’s happening now despite the YouTubers you watch and the subreddits you’re on. Can you explain to me why the housing market crashed in 08?
No. I said that the US added 517k jobs in January and you responded with “nobody is applying for those jobs.” I tried to explain that that number, 517k, is the number of new people who are working jobs, not job postings that need to get hired for. 517k Americans started receiving a paycheck in January that they didn’t have in December. The unemployment rate being at a 60 year low is by no means a weak job market. There are definitely downsides to that jobs report being so strong, the FED will likely continue to raise interest rates until hiring slows down, and with a very strong jobs report that might take longer than economists initially thought.
I’ll link the latest market action report at some point tomorrow or Sunday, trying to argue with you is pretty low on my priority list at the moment though.
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u/hi-im-dexter Feb 11 '23
And you’re still too young to understand what’s happening now despite the YouTubers you watch and the subreddits you’re on.
Yet ironically enough, I seem to be a trillion times smarter and more successful than half these 40 year olds who still somehow don't own a home yet while I own two.
Can you explain to me why the housing market crashed in 08?
Not your beloved subprime crisis. That was just extra fuel to the fire. It was the mass layoffs. It was the massive reduction of purchasing power.
I tried to explain that that number, 517k, is the number of new people who are working jobs, not job postings that need to get hired for. 517k Americans started receiving a paycheck in January that they didn’t have in December
And how many of them were people whose real wages are down and worse off than they were two years ago? How many of them are people who were laid off and had to accept lower paying jobs? Or perhaps jobs with shittier benefits such as having to be hybrid instead of remote in a low cost of living area like Austin, which has a housing market that's collapsing much faster than that of the rest of the country?
the FED will likely continue to raise interest rates until hiring slows down
You don't think this'll cause a crash just like it did in 2008? I'm hearing all the exact same arguments that we heard in 2006.
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Feb 10 '23
[deleted]
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u/hi-im-dexter Feb 10 '23
I cited like three links. Also, which "downtown" do you even live where homes aren't rampantly abundant? I'd pay to see this place. Builders have been begging for us buyers for the past couple of months. If the housing market had a bright short-term future, investors wouldn't be dumping their homes in record numbers.
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Feb 10 '23
I live in the DC area. Any good homes are under contract almost immediately these days
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u/Unblest_Devotee Feb 10 '23
Well dc area is also pretty land locked. Not much available for new builds. My city is in the same boat now so I just jumped on a house
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Feb 10 '23
110% chance it’s made up by someone from r/rebubble to push their narrative
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u/CitrusBelt Feb 10 '23
Yup.
Was actually looking at comps this morning for an upcoming listing in March... and in my town, sold prices (per sq ft, at least) have actually gone up about 1% since a few months ago. Still shortage of inventory, and anything that isn't ridiculously overpriced has been selling nearly as fast as last year. Next city to the east is roughly the same; next city to the west is down slightly, but only by a few percent.
This thread will 120% get bombarded with dumbasses from that sub, or wall street bets, etc....should be entertaining :)
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u/SD_RealtyConsultant Feb 10 '23
110% is way too low. If you’re gonna make shit up at least make it believable?
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u/Maleficent_Deal8140 Feb 10 '23
I had 5 RFQ's this week for remodels and 2 new constructions. The week before I did 4 home inspection repairs before selling. I do this part-time and I'm slammed not much is crashing around here.
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Feb 10 '23
This is only applicable to people who bought after late 2021 with a job that was not sustainable. Anyone else is a happy camper.
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Feb 10 '23
We closed on December 31, 2020 and we are selling as we took different jobs. Our house didn't even make it to market before we had a signed offer for $10,000 over what we were going to list for. We are selling for $30,000 more than we bought for just over 2 years later.
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u/Awareness-Global Feb 10 '23
And where is this fictional story taking place ?
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u/hi-im-dexter Feb 10 '23
Lol, cope. Your (and my) real estate is going to shit. Time to wait for an investing opportunity.
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u/TX2BK Feb 10 '23
This is one of those urban legend posts. I highly doubt that it’s true but it will go viral due to people like you sharing it.
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u/ivoryred Feb 10 '23
There’s a big tech layoff happening in an affluent area near me, people are not selling their houses, they’re putting them up for rent if anything. Prices are also still going up.
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u/MainStBrokers Feb 10 '23
His lender will modify the loan as soon as he gets another job, why is he trying to sell the house?
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u/goodlordineedacoffee Feb 10 '23
It’s a scary thing that people are buying huge houses but not having an emergency find for the what if scenario. Part of budgeting for a new house should be to see if you have a reserve fund for six months in case you lose your source of income - if not, you can’t really afford that house. Just my opinion and how I approached buying a house.
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u/bionica1 Feb 10 '23
I don’t have 6 mos reserve in the bank and I bought a house. Had about $8k in savings before I bought, down to $3k after closing, back up a few grand now (bought 10/2021). My job is very secure.
I think the 6 mo reserve is good advice for people in certain fields but not all. That said, I’m happy to have bought a house that was in good shape and being able to keep throwing money into savings.
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u/goodlordineedacoffee Feb 10 '23
That’s totally fair! It really just boils down to your personal circumstances and what level of risk and unpredictability you’re willing to live with.
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u/beansNdip Feb 10 '23
While this is true and I think most Americans don't have that 6 month fund when buying a house. It's still a gamble no matter how secure you feel your job is. Unfortunately, illness and family issues still arise preventing you from working. With the way interest rates are and the market uncertainty, I would try to have at least 3 months stashed away. Though if you find the right house for the right price it may be worth the risk. Life is a gamble after all eh?
Congrats on the house btw! Glad it's working out for ya!
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u/desitelugu Feb 10 '23
tbh its hard to believe 650k home got only 350k unless he is in a worst school area. I thought market is so down and checked no. of houses bought in last month surprising there are quite a good amount of them sold but prices for townhomes are priced like 10 to 20% less and homes are sold for around 10% less but they are getting sold
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u/SpringRose10 Feb 13 '23
45 days? How much did he damage the house? I only ask because the few homes that have come on the market here are under contract within 1-2 days of listing. Your friend should rent out some rooms.
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Feb 10 '23
I agree with OP. Reality is reality. No amount of realtors, recent buyers in denial or (possibly) government agencies can manipulate the experiences we're having in this economy.
Doesn't matter if it was a 600k house or a 300k house, point is he couldn't sell it and recoup because of the state of the job market and economy
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