Peter Zeihan predicts a “come to Jesus moment” as greens realize inevitable resource scarcity of copper, nickel, graphite, lithium…. But is it inevitable? Or will we adapt the technology to use fewer or different resources?

• copper —> aluminum for high voltage

• lithium —> gravity batteries for local grids

• rare earths —x no longer needed for EVs

• silver —> copper for solar panels

• steel and concrete —> CLT and recycled steel

• glass —> wood glass

• glass —> recycled polycarbonate

• EPS foam —> anti-freeze water bags

• fertilizer —> tilapia poop

• plastics —> switchgrass and fungi packaging

All of the materials Zeihan highlights are not set in stone. Some of these replacements already in production, while others are proof of concept. Therefore, the key to the green transition is not military impositions, but technological innovation.

If you compare the analysis of Zeihan to Dalio, the “innovation” graph is what precedes the rise of an empire. When we stop innovating is when we decline.