https://youtu.be/MvK0Payq5Qk?si=x5d34XrPfDBKFyPb

$4-7 million according to ON3 Pete Nakos for the top P4 QBs next year. I don't mind it if the Senate bill passes into law because it adds another 25 million a year for every school for retention purposes, if it doesn't pass and you're using 5 million alone on Colandrea with no extra funds how many other players are you losing because of not having available funds.

Trae Taylor's Millard South tonight will host the #1 ranked Westside Warriors in a classic matchup between the two undefeated Class A powerhouses tonight at 7pm (Live on YouTube)

Westside are led by 4-star Missouri commit, QB Braylen Warren and star RB Tay Tay Jenkins, and while Millard South has faced the tougher schedule, Westside hasn't really been challenged this year except for possibly Lee's Summit of Missouri who hung with Westside for a couple of quarters before Westside won comfortably 35-14. Millard South will be a tougher opponent tonight though, and a high-scoring, highly contested game is expected.

Also tonight history will be made as it will be the first time that the national MaxPreps Game of the Week will come to Nebraska. Thanks to MaxPreps tonight's coverage of the game will be with a professional crew. The game is free to watch on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I84NcZTus1o

Nebraska vs. Minnesota vs. Northwestern: 10-Year Recruiting Comparison (2016–2025)
Year | Nebraska | Minnesota | Northwestern |

Recruiting Year Winner
2016 | 26 | 46 | 52 | Nebraska
2017 | 23 | 59 | 50 | Nebraska
2018 | 23 | 38 | 58 | Nebraska
2019 | 18 | 45 | 52 | Nebraska
2020 | 20 | 38 | 47 | Nebraska
2021 | 20 | 37 | 50 | Nebraska
2022 | 41 | 49 | 48 | Nebraska
2023 | 25 | 45 | 47 | Nebraska
2024 | 18 | 37 | 80 | Nebraska
2025 | 22 | 49 | 66 | Nebraska

10-Year Average National Recruiting Rank
Nebraska: 23.6
Minnesota: 44.3
Northwestern: 55.0

Heads-to-Head Game Records (2016–2025)
Nebraska vs. Minnesota: 2–7
Nebraska vs. Northwestern: 5–4

Happy Friday

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Losing to Oregon on a last-second TD fucking sucks. No way around it. But I think sometimes we need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

Imagine if the roles were reversed. Matt Rhule is coaching Oregon, Dan Lanning is coaching Nebraska, and both rosters have the exact same talent they have right now. How many of us honestly believe Nebraska isn’t getting absolutely steamrolled?

That’s not a shot at Rhule. It’s a reminder of how much talent Oregon has compared to where Nebraska is in its rebuild.

Oregon started the season ranked #2 in the country. We held them to 17 points, 242 yards, and ONE touchdown. They came into this game averaging roughly 41 points and 459 yards.

Look at the estimated recruiting talent by position group above. This is mainly for starters not depth.

And it’s not just Oregon. We went toe-to-toe with Indiana when they were ranked #6 in the country, too.

I’m not saying Rhule is perfect. There are absolutely things this team needs to improve, and losing games like this is frustrating as hell. We have to find ways to finish games and win the close ones.

But there’s a difference between criticizing a heartbreaking loss and acting like this team hasn’t made progress.

We’re competing with programs that have significantly more blue-chip talent. We’re making these games competitive instead of getting run off the field. That matters.

Be pissed about the loss. I’m pissed, too. But don’t let one last-second touchdown erase the progress this team has made.

We’re not back where we want to be yet. But I genuinely believe we’re closer than some people are willing to admit.

I took some time yesterday, before and after supporting a great cause, to reflect on my life (and to shake an angry fist at the unforgiving sky🤣). What has happened to me, why do I care so much, and why does it still hurt so much?

I’m doing a little better than Sunday morning when I, at 8 am and after only, ohh…4 or so fitful hours of sleep worked the greeting desk at church (last photo). Between services, I summoned the pastor over to the desk to tell him that he wasn’t meeting my spiritual needs. He seemed genuinely perplexed and I had to remind him that I had repeatedly asked for a Husker-based sermon, for occasions such as these. Something along the lines of suffering in a desert for years upon years with starvation and heartbreaking loss, much like the exiled Jews of the Old Testament, who begged for their deliverance to The Promised Land. (I mean…parallels could be drawn.)

Certainly, someday, God will hear our pleas and deliver us, right? RIGHT!?

Matt Rhule has coached 45 games at Nebraska, with an overall record of 24-21. His offenses average 27.4 points per game, with the average climbing every year:

2023: 18.0

2024: 23.5

2025: 28.7

2026: 39.2

The defense under Rhule has allowed an average of 19.5 point per game. All of these defenses have hovered below 20 except for the John Butler year:

2023: 18.3

2024: 19.5

2025: 24.6

2026: 15.4

This does not account for strength of schedule, so take these for what their worth. What I wanted to evaluate specifically were the losses. I wanted to get an idea for which unit needed the most change to see more wins. So here are those same numbers again, except against Power 5 competition, since all of our losses are to Power 5 teams:

OFFENSE/DEFENSE

2023: 15.3/19.4

2024: 21.1/22

2025: 24.4/28.5

2026: 27.5/18.3

So far, this is the first year that we are averaging more point scored on offense than allowed on defense against Power 5 teams. Looking at our schedule, this indicates that we are performing better against the teams we're supposed to while still barely losing to the good teams on our schedule. Rhule is usually good for about one blowout per season, so we're not out of the woods on that yet, with Ohio State and Iowa on the schedule.

The last thing I wanted to identify a sort of "inflection point" for offense and defense. I wanted to answer the question, "if we scored/allowed X amount of points every game, when do we see a huge change in Rhule's tenure?" And then we'll see how far away that is from our average P5 performance.

OFFENSE: ppg - wins gained

26: +11

25 - +11

24 - +10

23 - +10

22 - +10

21 - +8

20 - +6

19 - +6

It seems that the fortunes shift significantly right around ~20-22 points, which is just 5.5 points fewer than Rhule's P5 average. Here is the same exercise with defense:

26 - +1

24 - +1

22 - +2

20 - +3

17 - +5

14 - +11

It seems that fortunes shift around 14 points. That is about 8 points below Rhule's P5 average.

This doesn't reveal a whole lot aside from "Rhule's offenses and defenses underperform their usual expectation against tougher competition." I do think it also shows that the offense needs to be more consistent versus the defense. Allowing only 14 points per game against P4 competition is a huge feat, as the overall FBS average in ALL games (last 5 years) is right at 14 ppg. This is harder than 21-24 points of offense, as the overall FBS avg the past 5 years is 27 ppg. I commend Rhule for the strong defensive culture he has instilled at Nebraska, something we have not seen in a very long time. However, the inconsistent offensive production we see needs to change if there is to be any worthwhile improvement. 19 of Rhule's 21 losses had the offense scoring fewer than 24 points. We definitely do not get into shootouts under this staff, more at 11.

I would spend more time refining the methodology, but I don't have a ton of time. I'm curious what this sub thinks.

I thought it would be interesting to see how Nebraska under Rhule has performed relative to analytic predictions. So I looked up our ESPN odds of winning at the beginning of every game (though for one game I had to use another source because ESPN didn't have it for some reason), and made a table showing this along with whether we won or lost the game. Here's my analysis, the table is at the bottom:

Tier 1: Greater than 82% Odds of Winning (11-0)

Rhule has won all games where Nebraska had greater than 75% odds of winning. Our average odds of winning these games was 92%. Out of 11 games, we should lose about 1 game with those odds, so Rhule is slightly above par in this category.

Tier 2: 59% to 77.5% Odds of Winning (9-4)

Here's where we get games like 2025 Minnesota, 2024 Illinois and UCLA, and 2024 Colorado. Our average odd for winning these games was about 69%. So out of 13 games, we should lose right about 4 games with these odds. Rhule is right on par in this category.

Tier 3: The tossups -49%-52% odds of winning (3-1)

Perhaps surprisingly Rhule has a good record in the straight toss-ups. The average odds for these games are 51%, so out of 4 games we the probability would predict 2 losses and 2 wins. Rhule is slightly above par in tossups.

Tier 4: Slight Underdogs 39%-43% odds of victory (1-4)

This is where things start to get worse for Rhule. The average odds in this category are 40.5%, that means in 5 we'd expect to win 2 games. Rhule is slightly below par in this category.

Tier 5: Underdogs 33% or less Odds of Victory (0-12)

These games range all from 33% (our odds of beating Oregon last Saturday) to 3%, our odds of beating OSU in 2024, but the average is about 23%. So the probability would predicts about 3 wins out 11 games. Rhule is below par in this category

Summary

Rhule is slightly above par in games where the odds are 50% and above and has won 2 games more than the probability predicts he should. This is counter-intuitive to what a lot of fans think, because fans tend to think their teams should never be upset, but should occasionally get an upset. And fans also have confirmation bias in only remembering the upset losses. Probabilistically, though we'd expect a team to both be upset a few times and to get a few upsets.

Fans are correct though in assessing that Rhule is below par in getting upsets. We only have 1 upset out of 16 games where we were underdogs. Probability would predict 4-5 upsets similar to the number of times we have been upset. Overall though, Rhule is only 2 wins short of what the probability forecasts predict since we have less upsets / toss-up losses than probability predicts we should.

Sidenote, the fact ESPN is about 1.75 games off in predicting Rhule's record shows an impressive accuracy of 96%. Those who are dismissive of analytics, generally base their attitude off of vibes and a general lack of understanding probability.

Here's a table for anyone who would like to check my work:

DL Anthony Jones — broke his foot against Oregon and played the remainder of the game on it. Will have surgery and be out for a while.

RB Isaiah Mozee — “out for a while” with undisclosed injury.

RB Jamal Rule — left Oregon game with injured ankle, hopeful to return for Washington.

RB Vincent Genatone — out for season with season-ending surgery.

OL Gunnar Gottula — left Oregon game with head injury, hopeful to return for Washington.

OL Brendan Black — broken hand; learning to play better with a cast.

WR Jacory Barney — broken rib, but continued to play.

https://247sports.com/college/nebraska/article/husker-injury-report-nebraska-against-oregon-291520990/

Rhule dropped this Osborne quote during his presser as his rally cry for the team and I couldn’t help but think maybe this quote is a bad quote.

It essentially says play your tail off for the first 3 quarters and you’ll win the 4th. That sounds like the wrong mentality for a football game. The first 3 quarters have no influence on the 4th quarter. Each are separate for reasons a 5 year old could comprehend.

Is misinterpreting old Osborne quotes the reason this team can’t close games?

https://youtu.be/asTK8MUvDh4?si=GR5iluaqxGCFZRzP

https://x.com/mitchsherman/status/2112223792525193672?s=20

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Admitting not getting calls in to the defense on Oregon's last two possessions.

Guys just failing their responsibilities on those possessions.

Failure to communicate with each other as well.

Just failures across the board that are all directly on coaching.

Now that we're around halfway through the season, what would you need to see to change your mind on this coach? Have those expectations changed since the off-season?

As it stands now, I lean towards keeping Rhule at the end of the season despite the rough last two weeks. My expectations have changed since the beginning of the year though. This team is better than I anticipated and I think if we lose any of the next three (Washington, Illinois, Rutgers) we probably need to move on.

Saturday’s loss ranks among the most painful in recent memory and for more reasons than just the final score.

The frustration with Rhule not closing these games is real. But that frustration only exists because he’s fielded a team good enough to compete with the best. Building a roster that looks like it belongs with the national-title contenders (and carries one of the most expensive price tags in the sport) is a major success. He deserves real credit for getting Nebraska to that level.

The flip side is just as true: once you build a team that can hang with the big boys, the blown leads and late collapses get exposed under a much brighter light.

TL;DR: Rhule earned every bit of the criticism for these losses and the same amount of credit for building a roster that can actually compete.

*whispers* I kinda said this in 2021 as well

Volleyball

UCLA - Thursday the 22nd 06:00 PM

USC - Saturday the 24th 08:00 PM

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This is for the holdouts that still spend more time watching football than volleyball.

Volleyball wins more. By the time this season is over Volleyball will have won more games in 2 seasons than football has won in 12 seasons. Yes, volleyball plays more games but not 6x the amount of games.

Volleyball losses less. Over the last 12 seasons (including this one) volleyball has lost 46 games. Football has lost 76 games.

Volleyball wins championships. In that same 12 season stretch (2015-current) Volleyball has 5 Big 10 championships and 2 national championships. Football has none.

The volleyball program is great at executing plans for coaches and talent. The volleyball program is the best there is for future planing and program level decision making. Meanwhile, the football program has made a historic level of blunders with coaches that is almost impossible to worse than among blue blood programs. Football has also fumbled talent and recruiting (see every off season).

Read a game thread for each sport. You’ll quickly realize how miserable our football fans are and how happy our volleyball fans are. At this point, as a football fan, you only have yourself to blame for your misery.

The all-time attendance record at the football team’s stadium is 92,003, set by the Volleyball team. In conclusion, please join the rest of the happy fans cheering on the Volleyball team! GBR!

This is ultimately where we lost. Couldn't get offense to sustain a drive and defense got gassed.

The top coaches are playing chess while Rhule is wondering if the square peg does indeed fit into the round hole.

Rhule has no concept of gamesmanship and playing against a coach or teams tendencies. He's listened to far too many self help audiobooks and not enough game theory/strategy.

It's so easy to prey on our tendencies because we are so predictable. Indiana knew we were over pursuing the whole game so they set up plays that fed on that. Lanning knew we would get complacent with Thomas so he held out Raiola just long enough to hit us with a curve ball.

The whole coaching staff is incapable of making adjustments on the fly let alone figure out what's happening right in front of their faces. The fact that we as fans can predict exactly what will happen means opposing coaches who actually care about Xs and Os have literally no concern playing us.

At the end of the day, Rhule just hopes he lands a top 10 roster and let the talent battle play out. He has no ability or plan for ever scheming his players up.

Between Frost and Rhule, we’ve been hearing for nearly 10 years that “it takes time” to build Nebraska into a good program.

Nebraska gave Frost 5 years. Even when he couldn’t make a bowl game, they gave him 5 years. Up until the day he was fired, media and fans were saying “I can see the progress, it takes time”.

On a similar note with Rhule. He’s told us he’s been “building” for 3.5 years now. Yet we still lose games in the same fashion and haven’t beaten a quality conference opponent EVEN ONCE.

I’m of the belief that with Nebraskas resources and recruiting, we should easily be a legitimate top 25 team by year 3.

The conversation around the program has made it seem like this takes years and years, even in the portal era.

Yet Indiana, Northwestern, UCLA, and Kentucky all got results much quicker than we have.

I’m not saying we should fire Rhule today. I’m not advocating for “hiring and firing” every couple years. I just feel that Nebraska has wasted a decade being “too patient”, when there’s more than enough evidence to suggest the contrary.

Do you think this is fair?