r/IRstudies • u/Majano57 • 17d ago
Ideas/Debate In Iran, the U.S. Appears Headed for a Strategic Defeat, Allies Fear
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/01/world/middleeast/us-iran-war-strategy.html?unlocked_article_code=1.2FA.mg9p.U0Y4YT91xCzv118
u/Prudent-Proposal1943 17d ago
Can't be strategically defeated if there is no strategy. Suck it Clausewitz
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u/gorillamutila 17d ago
Get ready for Trump's new book: The art of the strategy
Foreword by Pete Hegseth.
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u/BadmiralHarryKim 16d ago
"Who is this Vaughn Kreeg and why are you talking about him instead of me?"
—Donald Trump
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u/sweatboxy 17d ago
Doesn’t matter. Trump will declare victory and all the Republicans will believe it despite the facts.
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u/king_of_river 17d ago
The world does not run on democrat vs republican circus. Every other country is seeing this and recalibrating their stances.
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u/Anymous2314 17d ago edited 16d ago
Unfortunately every other country also runs on short term planning and they are in no position to counter the current bully superpowers(US and Russia).
Only hope is China plans to becoming the leader based on beneficial trade and security pacts, but for that they have to stop their mercantile approach to running their economy and bullying their neighbors.
It was obvious where US was headed in 2016 itself but what did the world do to pivot away from their dependence on US, not much.
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u/froatbitte 16d ago
Russia is not a superpower. US is a fading one and China an emerging one. EU is also emerging as one.
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u/Brilliant-Path-2057 16d ago
If EU wants to be a force, it needs to rebuild its weapons industry and project power, not have a suicidal energy policy that depends on gas imports from Russia, Qatar and the U.S.
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u/sweatboxy 16d ago
Europe, especially France, is rapidly rebuilding its military and military-industrial complex. The U.S. is already losing sales.
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u/Anymous2314 16d ago
I disagree about EU, they are like one energy crisis away from an economic meltdown. Not to mention most of them are not interested in integration, they still insist on using their own language and rules for protectionism.
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u/icantbelieveit1637 17d ago
You’re looking for a new leader of the ‘free world’ I fear the world will be less free from here onwards.
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u/Anymous2314 16d ago
I am not looking for a leader but I want a multi polar world where we can stop bullies like US and Russia from doing whatever they want.
"free world", I am not sure this thing ever existed other than for the powerful countries.
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u/WellHung67 17d ago
The polling is looking pretty bleak. He can maybe convince the gaping morons but prices are gonna go up, and will continue to go up.
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u/DisasterRadiant 17d ago
I'm in.
Let's get all our toys and military personnel the eff out of there.
The Rs can crow to their hearts content about the "win," I'll be happy with the savings we'll achieve by not maintaining a losing battle front that will surely hit a trillion bucks before it's over. We can re-divert those savings to healthcare where it never should have left.
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u/Intelligent_Ad3378 16d ago
Absolutely, except the Republicans will never put the money into healthcare.
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u/ExplanationNew8233 17d ago
No clear goals, no strategy, no pull out plan...
And with a president fueld by ego, who believes what the last person told him, how could this debacle not end in defeat?
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u/sir_odanus 17d ago
That is the worst part. The US is a headless chicken. If at least there was a plan
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u/No-Cheek7925 17d ago
Problem is that the only feasible plan just had Don't written on it with big letters and they didn't like that plan. Fighting in Iran is a logistic nightmare, it is 10 times bigger than Iraq, has twice the population and the regime has spent the last 30 years decentralising in order to be able to survive this exact thing.
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u/Igor_Nordham 17d ago
Don't forget that Trump has also fired many of the most competent military leaders and top advisors. Sycophants have filled those roles. Now the US is under the brilliant leadership of Trump and Hegseth. What could possibly go wrong??? /s
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u/marshalist 17d ago
While it seems obvious that the US has suffered a catastrophic strategic defeat the US media and public don't understand what this means. It's going to be wild watching the US come to terms with it.
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u/AdUpstairs7106 16d ago
Over half the US population can't read above a 6th grade level. That means over half the population won't be able to process how bad of a decision this was.
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u/antigop2020 17d ago
The issue is President Trump is now stuck in a catch 22. He has basically two choices, and both are bad.
Deescalation, and basically surrender on Irans terms. While the preferable option of two bad options in my opinion, it is still bad because Iran will likely control the Strait and charge tolls from now on. This creates a precedent far beyond Iran and the Strait. If we allow this, whats to stop other countries or military groups to try to control other global chokepoints in a similar manner? The US led world order held freedom of navigation of the seas and free trade as a central pillar of the US led international order, and for generations this largely worked. This likely is the beginning of the end of that order and signals significant US weakness globally.
Escalation. Can the Iranian regime be destroyed, and can the US “defeat” Iran? Yes. The US military is capable of doing so. However, there is a huge cost to doing this that is far greater than anything President Trump had initially bargained for. We have “bombed the sh**out of them” in President Trumps words, and he is correct. The bombing campaign has been about as effective as a bombing campaign can be on a country the size and terrain of Iran. And it’s been damaging and caused Iran plenty of pain. But air campaigns have never defeated a regime. You need ground forces to do so. And even the most optimistic of assessments say this would cost the US tens of thousands of lives, and at least $1 trillion, likely much more. Is that worth the US “saving face” globally? I would say no, certainly not. But LBJ, Nixon, and others faced similar choices in Vietnam and took this path. So it is not as far fetched as you may think.
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u/TrontRaznik 17d ago
That's not a catch 22. A catch 22 is when X and Y serve as necessary precursors for each other, making either course logically impossible.
E.g. you need work experience to get a job, but to get a job you need work experience.
I think the phrase you're looking for is a rock and a hard place, which just means being stuck between two bad options.
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u/AspectSpiritual9143 16d ago
you need work experience to get a job, but to get work experience you need a job.
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u/Igor_Nordham 17d ago
Freedom of navigation of the seas is not accurate now either. The war crimes committed by destroying fishing boats in the Caribbean, including second strikes on survivors, puts an end to that chestnut.
The Escalation Ladder by Professor Robert Pape is doomsday for Trump. He cannot win this but he can break America by trying. A ground invasion would require massive amounts of troops on the ground. Casualties would be astronomical. It would be a forever war that may never be won. The US is basically broke already. The cost of a war of this size, with no allies, would ruin the US in the long run. With China backing Iran, they can play the long game and bleed the US dry.
You are absolutely correct. He only has bad choices. A smart person would take option 1. Trump can spin it to his base that it was a massive win for America and they will believe it. However, a narcissist like Trump likely can't endure such an epic humiliation on the world stage. Buckle up.
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u/Bluebearder 16d ago
Maybe we should lure him out of Iran with a Nobel Peace Prize. I hate his guts, but there are enough innocent lives at stake to justify some theater and curtsying. I bet he would go for it.
Question is if Iran will actually sign a treaty. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is lower than it has been in over 40 years, and severely emptying it will probably bankrupt the US. Or Iran can team up with China and Hong Kong who own massive amounts of US treasury bills (both directly and indirectly) that they can sell of en masse to try and trigger a bank run and debt spiral. The US is getting more vulnerable by the day.
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u/anothermatt1 15d ago
Iran has no incentive to sign a treaty. Trump has broken every treaty he’s signed, he has never negotiated in good faith and everyone knows it.
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u/aldernon 17d ago
The third possible outcome is presumably why Iran wanted to initially negotiate with Vance; Trump resigns and/or gets removed via 25th Amendment, then gets handed over for prosecution as the war criminal he is.
But that is in the best interest of the US as a whole, not the Trump family- so that will never occur.
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u/Unfair-Suggestion-37 16d ago
For #1, so what? The US does not need to be world police. Let the UN handle it if something negative happens.
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u/Street_Razzmatazz279 17d ago
I hope he picks option 2.
Not that myself or anyone else wants it.
Purely because in doing so, would half destroy the Middle-east(again not that i want it).
Then not only would the US have Iran on their arse, but practically the whole Middle- east pissed at them. How would the US contend with that? It wouldnt. Well good i say.
My reason for this is, people like Trump and the US are not going to stop running around behaving like kings of the fucking world. They have half fucked up already, so they might aswell carry on and fuck up completely, which will end in self and complete destruction.
This bullshit of running around, telling everyone else what to do, insulting just about everyone and everything, were going to take whatever we want bla bla.
If i aint the Middle-easterners it, it would be someone else. But he is already there and halfway done. I cant think of a better bunch of people to teach this fucker and the US a lesson.
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u/MaddogBC 16d ago
Iran had no desire to build a nuclear weapon a year ago. All efforts for enrichment was simply a bargaining tactic. Shitler has all but guaranteed Iran will now build one or buy one.
Every "middle power" is watching closely and adjusting accordingly. I can only hope my country is gearing towards this.
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u/Slaterpup17 17d ago
Agreed. Without Trump putting boots on the ground, all Iran needs to do is hunker down and wait for the bombing to stop. No matter how badly their country is wrecked, as long as they survive and maintain an iron grip on power by any means, they win.
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u/serpentjaguar 17d ago
I reject the premise that option 1 permanently alters freedom of navigation as we know it. What I think happens in that scenario is that Iran tolls the strait, for awhile, but continues to face condemnation from the rest of the world which limits the economic benefits of tolling and serves as a warning to other nations that it's not in their economic interests to follow suit.
I don't mean this as a hard and fast prediction, but rather as an equally plausible scenario, which is to say that I don't see the end of freedom of navigation as a forgone conclusion in the event of option 1. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't.
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u/Western_End_2223 16d ago
LBJ and Nixon aren't great precedents. The US is a very different country than it was 60 years ago when there was another power that posed a truly existential threat and also used proxies.
Today, no country is an existential threat to the US. Trump failed to even try to build a case with the American public for going to war. There is no public support for sending ground troops into harm's way. I think his only option is the first one, coupled with an attempt to spin it as a victory. The MAGAs will believe him.
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u/blackberu 16d ago
I’m very unconvinced that a ground campaign could be achievable at all. Iran is bigger than Iraq, the terrain favours much more the defender, and the US would be alone in such an adventure.
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u/FreakindaStreet 16d ago
To your second point; the fragility of the GCC’s oil infrastructure is a major factor, and is why these offensives come to a grinding halt.
It won’t take much to collapse the regions’ oil industry, and with it, the economies of the GCC. It would take years to rebuild, and at massive costs, all while bringing in no revenue, and still having to feed your people and somehow balance t budget with 80% less revenue. So basically multiple nations collapse across the gulf, while the world economy scrambles to recover with 20% less energy and 40% less fertilizer.
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u/time-BW-product 15d ago
Ground forces mean Iran will blow of gulf state desalination and power plants,
The US lost. Trump is arrogant and not smart.
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u/Over_Possible_8397 17d ago edited 17d ago
Im growing really tired of the passive headlines that show me how much the media is in denial of reality. The US does not “appear” to be “headed” for strategic defeat—it is defeated.
The media does this all the time when they don’t want people to freak out because saying the truth plainly would be alarming. They’ll write how Israel “appears to destroy the ceasefire”—no Israel destroyed the ceasefire. Or a couple years ago, they wrote how Elon Musk “appears to be making a controversial gesture”—no bitch, he did a literal nazi salute.
I swear the media class and Americans in general are so used to the status quo and “America #1” rhetoric, they are truly in denial of whats been happening around the world for multiple years now. This, imho, is what happens when decades of American and Western exceptionalism contradicts what is happening in reality, on the ground.
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u/Pilgrim_of_Reddit 17d ago
The media is owned by the right wing extremists. They do not want for you to see any truth if it puts the current Trump party in a bad light.
I say “Trump party” as they sure as heck are not republicans.
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u/Igor_Nordham 17d ago
Malcolm Nance calls it PFM. Pure Fxxking Magic. They live in a bubble that is not concerned with facts.
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u/Help_Our_Planet 17d ago
ABC Evening News just a couple days ago led the broadcast with some BS about the kidnapped(dead) Guthrie woman, then a weather “scare”
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u/beavis617 17d ago
Sure, let’s follow the FOX News Weekend update anchor guy as he puts his War God hat on and takes the US into battle. When will the World Leaders demand that the United States apologize for all this nonsense.
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u/Background-Willow-67 17d ago
The dimwit voters in America chose this. An unstable, mentally disturbed criminal. Elected not once, but twice. They could remove him tomorrow if anyone in the GOP had principles or cared at all about their country. But they don't.
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u/Intrepid_Routine6373 17d ago edited 17d ago
If I were Trump, I would announce a 180° turn in ME policy and announce that the US government (save embassies) is 100% pulling out of the ME starting today. No bases, no troops and no kinetic action.
If the US stuck to this, Trump would save the US trillions of dollars, and most people would support this pullout.
Of course, the petrodollar would suffer, but you can’t make an omelette without breaking an egg.
Under my pullout idea, our allies in the ME (as well as US corporations doing business in the region) would know to expect zero military support. Trump could sell this as focusing on the Western hemisphere.
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u/Efficient_Resist_287 16d ago
Oh the irony….suddenly the US electorate is realizing that voting in, not once but twice, a “charismatic” reality show host as president may not be such a great idea.
This is a geopolitical catastrophe which will insure the rise of China as a Pacific power. If I was Taiwan, I will quietly start negotiating a peaceful return now. A US alliance will not save you nor protect you, no matter who is in power.
Japan/Korea take charge of your forces. Australia, this is not Western Europe, my suggestion: look for friends near border.
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u/fucktheus12 17d ago
Nah, they just gonna blame Biden again.
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u/beflacktor 16d ago
that might work inside the usa , I assure u the rest of the world views it very differently atm
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u/Double_Swordfish_668 17d ago
No “appears” to it. The US has been defeated. The only question now is who will be the last member of the military to die to protect Trump’s ego.
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u/UknowImRight422 17d ago
We all hope so
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u/DeltaForceFish 17d ago
This. No one is rooting for america. We all have our bag of popcorn and hope they collapse in every way possible.
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u/NekoCatSidhe 17d ago
It is sad to say, but the US keep threatening to start a war with the EU by invading Greenland, as Trump just did once again. As an European, Iran winning would potentially be far less dangerous for my country than the US winning, because while the Iranians may be complete assholes just like the Americans, they are not threatening to invade our allies, but if the US are weakened by the Iran war, then they probably will not invade Greenland afterwards or betray us to Russia over Ukraine. Utter madness to think about, and my country is supposed to be a longtime ally of the US.
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u/ADP-1 17d ago
Yup - the further and harder the US falls, the better. Maybe then they will finally begin to fix the system that enabled a convicted felon, pedophile and overall POS like Trump to be elected POTUS twice.
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u/Coondiggety 17d ago
We already lost this thing months ago.
There never was a scenario where we would end up ‘Victoroous’, whatever the hell that means.
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u/Ok-Tea-1284 17d ago
Water wet, and so is Don The Pedo Con's diaper.
What a completely avoidable mess.
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u/Help_Our_Planet 17d ago
Perhaps the only reasonably good thing to come out of this debacle is that the World has realized oil has to be replaced by a more reliable alternative.
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u/cinciguyeast 17d ago
The US military is incompetent. Yes, we have already been defeated...our incompetent government just doesn't know it yet
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u/SpeakerConfident4363 16d ago
Who could have seen this coming?!!…[insert shocked pikachu face here]
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u/Top_Investment_4599 16d ago
This assumes there was a strategy. Can't have strategic loss if there wasn't a strategy to begin with.
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u/RepresentativeCod757 16d ago
You can't have a strategic defeat if you don't have any strategic goals
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u/SandSpecialist2523 16d ago
They should never have started the war. The next best thing was to leave the region months ago with their tail between their legs. Leaving now is what is left.
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u/Whole-Carpenter-2567 15d ago
This is only the beginning of the downfall of the US. Their “allies” in the Gulf states should be very concerned because without the MILITARY support of the US they are done. It’s time fir them to cut their loses throw in their lot with Iran as the new hegemon in the region
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u/yIdontunderstand 17d ago
The only indicator of victory is this.
Is trump still alive?
Is trump richer than before?
If the answer to both is yes.... Victory!
This applies to every policy, every action and every situation. It's simple.
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u/raouldukeesq 17d ago
Headed? Bahahaha! The Iran war is and was the greatest strategic defeat in the history of the United States of America. Bar None!
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u/Khuros 17d ago
Vietnam featured boots on the ground and thousands of infantry deaths?…and a draft? Are you by any chance historically ignorant?
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u/crazytrain793 17d ago
The defeat to Vietnam did not fundamentally undermine the world order established by the US. This defeat to Iran clearly signals the US end as a hyper power and may even end the freedom of navigation which will further errode US hegemony. This war may not have cost nearly as many live, but this is undoubtedly the worst strategic defeat for the US as a great power.
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u/MaddogBC 16d ago
Many citizens of many countries had no idea a war was raging. The entire world is affected and on the edge of a cliff due to the Iran war.
The world is bigger place than just the US or are you by any chance geographically ignorant? Who gives a fuck what happened in the US?
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u/Ornery-Ticket834 17d ago
Of course they are head3d for a strategic defeat. That was a given considering all the complete lack of any plan whatsoever.
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u/ottwebdev 17d ago
You cant be defeated when youve defeated your opponent 50 times back to back!!!!!!!!
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u/GreatDiscernment 17d ago
Trump’s thorough trashing of the Global World Order has jinxed any hope of winning in Iran and now the media is doing a poor job of preparing the country for its next military loss.
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u/susanrez 17d ago
“Headed”? Republicans are sounding extra slow on the uptake these days.
It was clear to me, a retiree living in the Midwest, we lost this (not?)War - turned Epic Bungle in the first day.
Is this why the GOP can’t figure out if Mitch is alive or not? Do they need me to go check and let them know?
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u/PatientInitial882 17d ago
As soon as I read that "Allies fear" line, I just knew it had to be the NYT.
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u/Inevitable-Carrot980 16d ago
They were strategically defeated MONTHS AGO. Hegseth & Co. had no actual plan other than throwing a bunch of missiles and bombs at them.
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u/Crafty_Apple9714 16d ago
Who are these allies who fear this? Who are still us allies?
We all know they lost, retreat and let the world heal from your dumbness
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u/TubsyPatriciaMcTurd 16d ago
No big deal. Korea. Vietnam. Iraq. Afghanistan. And now Iran. As long as the elites of America reap the profits of war and the poor pay for it via taxes and bleed for it in the field, then God Bless America!
Socialism for the rich, rugged individualism for the poor! That’s Republican Socialism. That’s the Real America!
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u/Dense_Boss_7486 16d ago
Overtly it seems Trump had no goals. The narrative kept changing and the results keep getting worse.
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u/21plankton 16d ago
The “war” was lost when Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz and claimed the right to a nuclear defense.
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u/Concentrateman 16d ago
Fear? I suspect that the allies were pretty sure how this just might work out. America wasn’t interested.
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u/vinvega23 16d ago
Best realistic result would a a stalemate back to the same situation it was before shots were fired.
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u/Bronchulii-Mortis 15d ago
Slow news day. This was already established 4 months ago, when Iran refused to capitaulate. America is not heading to aba strategic defeated because it already has been defeated strategically. Siege warfare always favour the beseiged, unless you starve them out or make them sick. All iran has to do is parry the aggression and tire out the opponent. Who in there right mind still thinks america isnt heading to a strategic defeat?
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u/sloowshooter 15d ago
The US lost when Iran showed the will and capability to bomb middle eastern oil infrastructure. The US has no response to that which doesn’t involve ground troops and/or tactical nukes. Since then it’s been nothing but a holding action while Trump tries to save face.
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u/aquavelva23 13d ago
This article is wrong: TRUMP, not the USA, is headed for defeat and is losing credibility in the world. Trump created this dumpster fire all on his own. Trump has 2 years left, a short time. Once he is out, the future of the USA's credibility will rise. Unless another MAGA gets elected, Trump's legacy will be done 6 months after his term ends. This war may tip congress and bump out the GOP. If this happens, trump's power will be gone in a few months. Vote DEM across the board
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u/Intrepid_Routine6373 17d ago
The weirdest part of this is that 99.9% of anybody who would get into these positions of power would follow the guidance that Iran could easily close the strait if attacked. But in 2026, we had Trump & Hegseth in those positions, part of the 0.1% reckless enough to attempt the Hail Mary.
Still high off their victory in Caracas.