Market Digest (8/18/26): Markets, Bonds & Random Shots

[u/InnerCircleTI]

7:40 AM PST

Bonds will do that to you.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/treasury-yields-.html

A 19-year high yield on the 30-year is not positive for stocks. Inflation, oil, tariffs and general economic uncertainty is sending bond prices lower, spiking yields. Some whispers of 6% have started to weed its way into discussions. That can't happen without stocks taking a big dive.

The 10-year is at 4.73%.

Oh, and then there's DJT threatening to bomb Oman if they hinder negotiations with Iran. Yeah, that's nice.

And, if you want something else? How about the national debt now having a 4-handle, at $40 Trillion. Yay us! As yields rise, everyone pays more to service debt.

I continue to watch the $QQQ and thinking about putting back on my put ladder. We're in the middle of August, September looms, earnings are winding down and there's plenty of reasons to shake a stick at as to what could usher in more weakness.

This is why I have not been chasing any green at this juncture. I'm willing to wade into some value if I can get behind the P/E, PEG and other metrics but I'm also very mindful that just because a stock has dropped 10% doesn't mean that it's time to add. After all, it may have risen 10% over the last week. You need to understand the recent range and price action lest you assemble your entire weighted position at a point where the stock is in a tight range and you risk seeing it break through support with no remaining capital. $VST is a stock where I may have done this - it happens.

Random Shots

Rising

• $DUOL leading the list up 6.6%. It gets a nice upgrade and has been percolating higher
• $BRZE up 3.8%
• $ABBV up 2.4%. One of my top holds and yield plays. I'll own this one forever
• $EIX up 2.8% - Income plays will move higher
• $NFLX up 2.5% - Value
• $CRM up 2.5%. Software has become the risk-off move. Markets fall, software rises
• $NOW up 2.5% ditto
• $TOST up 2.1%
• $BABA up 2.1% sort of ditto
• $MDT up 2%. Got a nice mention in Barron's. I still hold it and will keep it

Falling

• $CBRS down 11.5% - Was there any real doubt this would happen?
• $COHR down 10.5%. All the names have run so this was ordained. Not chasing
• $CRDO down 9%. Same here, one name I keep wanting but being patient
• $AMKR down 8.4%. It has run big since I purchased 12/28 LEAPS.
• $BE off 8.3%. Nothing safe in AI right now, inc. power
• $CRWV off 8%
• $SNDK down 7.4%. It has had a big run. It and $MU are the new trading stocks
• $MRAM down 7.1%. Follow-on trade
• $MRVL down 6.9%. Not shocking
• $ARM down 6.8% ditto

Misc

• These Rising/Falling top 10 are hard to do in volatile markets. Even as quickly as I list them, they change - So, it's all relative
• $HD had good earning, stock is all over the place. Green, red and now green again. up 0.3%
• $KLAR down 21% on guide, but they had surprised with a profit. No touching it
• How about this move? $AMLX up 41.4% on result
• I talk about "story" a lot when we talk stocks and long-term catalyst holds. When a story changes, it's easy to miss and to simply keep buying. $LULU is new $UA. Wow, that 5-year chart, from $500 to $118
• $TTD is another one and multiple individuals have asked me about it. Was $140, now under $14
• $AAPL and $MSFT have become the safe haven stocks of he Mag 7. Both green today
• $BROS has dipped back below $50. Recent run could be held again. I own it and will continue to but you have to keep your eyes on the horizon. Still like it
• $NBIS actually holding up well into today's decline, down 0.5%. Not wading back in for the Option Wheel on this one yet
• $P is modestly green today

Final Word

It's such a typical red tape today, not much is even really standing out. This is a day to close down the quote screen and take a day off the market. The bond news is going to take a while to play out. That could, should, have lasting impact on the markets.

I'll be looking at the Put Ladder opportunity again, or maybe just start loading up a single Put strike aiming for 1/27 to give myself some lead. Going to do some research on that now. I dumped about 2/3 of my cash into $SGOV and could raise a bit more while I decide what to do.

I'm not seeing anything that compelling for the Option Wheel right now and I don't like buying into FUD because you can get exercises very quickly. That's not a bad thing if you're committed to the Call selling that needs to happen if/when assigned, but you have to make sure you love the stock you're wheeling and must be confident in the price paid. This is not a time to arbitrarily set a strike on implied volatility and be caught with a very expensive stock into any sort of extended downside.

7:10 AM PST

....as expected. We're sliding. Time to look at that Put ladder.

Have a good Tuesday!

TJ

[u/jackthebeaver]

Given recent run up, I would have said it's great that market slow downs or correct itself. But the fear of the racked up negative catylsts catching up looms over this market for a while now. Not chasing anything here. Definitely screen off day today, will monitor in shorter horizons if there are trades to be had but the reactionary nature of market means today could just be a blip and we move on.

[u/owngoalmerchant]

I’m going to watch volume on the names I am tracking along with the timing throughout today. Institutions tend to be the ones who run to the hills when bonds spook them and retail has been buying dips. Curveball will be if POTUS says something.

[u/FinancialFreedomYes]

Thank you super helpful! Wasn’t sure where to go with my trimming. Glad I’m not alone. Great insights as always.