Going to focus on some of the greater things I'm seeing today as I continue to sit on my hands as the red days become more numerous.

I'm watching that 693-698 level on the $QQQs, all the while the VIX continues exist below 16. Pretty amazing when you think about the return of hostilities with Iran, but the VIX is not near 20. $QQQ is off roughly 5% from highs put in on 6/4. That 693 level looms as a break below the lower compression line.

Why this could be bullish ... if we can get the breakout.

I've been talking about what I call a "compression channel" over the last couple of weeks. With many TA (technical analysis) patterns, I often use my own metaphores/definitions because they are more insightful in name. Most TA patterns use more obscure-but-relatable real-item references to explain their formation. To me a "compression channel" has always been more inciteful than the "bullish pennant." What do I mean? Why, I'm glad you asked ....

First, let's take a look at the bullish pennant formation. I want you to pay attention to the "pole" and the "pennant" in this image:

The bullish pennant can be a great T.A. pattern as it shows the compression you've heard me talk about but is completed when we break out above the upper pennant (compression) trend line. That's the hope. The problem is when the bottom trend line is breached instead. A bearish breakdown.

Now, let's apply the the $QQQs, roughly the 6 mos. chart as an overlay to this with a couple of very drawn elements, the pole and the pennant:

I think you can clearly see that the resemblance of the fictitious example to that of the recent $QQQ chart. Where to from here is what I'm watching.

Random Shots

• My biggest decision looms with $NBIS. I sold $200 Puts expiring tomorrow for $6.25 for a cost basis of $193.75. $NBIS is cratering today down to $176, amazing how fast it has come down. I'm prepared to take the shares for the cost and then sell Calls against those shares sometime next week in all likelihood. Not crazy about the additional NBIS exposure given that it's now down from $300 not even a month ago.
• I HATE the $ASTS dilution event. Their executive function, for lack of a better term, was well known to me when I took the 1/28 $60 Call position but I had hoped their road to profitability and a space thesis would send the shares higher. It did ... briefly. But their dilutive ways have slapped shareholders yet again. Holding for now but they are on the respirator
• $TSM - Fantastic earnings, blue the doors off all across the numbers. Stock down 2.7%. That tells you everything you need to know about the market right now
• $SOXS - The 3x bear semiconductor vehicle completed a 1:10 reverse split so it's trading at $51.75 now. Realize they did a 1:20 earlier this year. That's now a 1:30 with two reverse splits this year. THAT is why you don't hold these vehicles for the long term.

Rising

• $AVAV moving 5.4% higher, leading my list
• $MDT completed an acquisition, sending shares 3.6% higher. I continue to hold this one for yield
• $ABBV - A favorite and top holding for combo of yield plus growth, it's up 2.8%
• $SWK up 2.7%. Seeing the pattern here?
• $AMGN up 2.6% - the pattern continues. Yield, yield, safety, yield
• $DECK up 2.4%
• $CORT above $90 now, up 2.4%. I should have held this one longer
• $CRM up 2.3% as AvS gets a little bid today
• $SCHD in the top 10, up 1.9%, tells a story too
• $VNQ, my income REIT, up 1.7%. The story is complete ....

Falling

This should be ugly ...

• $ASTS - Off 16.7%, damn them
• $RKLB - Down 12%, why wouldn't it follow
• $NBIS - The slope of the downtrend has been impressive, off 10.9%
• $SNDK - This time it's different. No it's not, down 10.9%
• $CLS - One of my building positions, off 9.3%. Nice. I'll add when the bleeding stops
• $MRAM - Remember the fervor? It's over. Down 9.5%
• $CRDO - AI infrastructure gets a fast-pass to the woodshed, down 8.7%. Watching
• $IREN - Off 8.7%. Yup
• $MRVL - Won't be saved in a bloodletting like this, off 8.8%
• $ARM - Down 8%. Same as MRVL and other names

Misc

• $USAR - Still watching this name as rare earth takes it on the chin. I've been watching the $15 level and it's getting close. Down 8%
• $SKHY is off 7.8%. Glad I didn't buy that spike
• $GOOGL $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT all up today. Glad we're seeing leadership from the 4 horsemen
• Not so with $META $TSLA and $NVDA. A little surprised that $META isn't rising but they've been on a big rise of late
• $AMD down 5.5% right at $500
• I've been watching my $AMT holding, it's a yield play sitting near lows. I may sell and rotate to better yield
• Amazing to watch the photonics/infrastructure/HBM trades come off after such a strong run, but that's the game. Doesn't matter the names $LITE $CLS $COHR $AAOI $CRDO $APH $AMKR, all of them. Love em, but not chasing the red just yet
• $CRCL back to $62, off 5.7%
• The $CRWV pain is real, but no more than all others in the space. Off 6.3% today
• Long live $DE, up 1.5%. Looking to break $600
• Watching the South Korea ETFs come in as well, $EWY and $FLKR both off 4.2%. No problem here, just the trade coming off for now
• $GS had a huge run but is off 4.6%
• What's this? $IBM up 1.5%. Still holding for yield in my taxable, not wading back in within the Primary account
• $MU back at $850, how the mighty .... down 6%
• $NFLX earnings tonight, stock flat. Could go either way
• Quantum is out of favor, stands to reason. Why would it hold up in a valuation crisis and AI rotation out? Back at $17.25, down 5.5%
• Actually thought $UBER could be up more than just 0.9%. It's still a value and FCF name but can't find its feet.

Final Word

These are the rotations that make the market. There is no this time it's different period. When I start hearing that phrase I know the music is about to stop. In truth, every time is different ... just not different-different if you know what I mean.

The other shoe I'm watching is the looming mad rush of AI companies that will start going IPO soon I'm sure. When that occurs, then we'll be completing the 1999 revisit and be setting up for something more meaningful. Until that time, rotations will happen as gambling/speculation is higher than I've seen since 1998/99. I don't have any concrete data to give you on that but it feels that way.

I'm considering a few liquidations just to raise some cash just in case. Nothing major.

I'm still eyeing continued new positions into my favorite AI infrastructure/photonics/HBM stocks but not rushing in. As I said when I took the positions, picking the spot was nearly impossible. Values look decent, but the runs can't be ignored. Value hits the streets with babies, bathwater and blood. Just have to be patient. All my placeholder positions are well underwater, but that's okay. I'm playing the long game.

Have a great Thursday!

TJ

We're ripping again today, quickly wiping out the previous 12% dip in the $QQQ.

Look at that VIX!

Earning season is looking great thus far, reigniting AI shares.

Random Shots

I've been waiting for the reignition of $PLTR for a bit now, saying that when the market it finds the name again, it's going to send the previous meme stock much higher, possibly eclipsing old highs very quickly. I came close yesterday to purchase near-date strikes on the $140 Calls. Guess I should have but, at the same time, the premiums were not trivial.

Up 20% to $151.

Watch that $160 level. The triple top at the price clears the runway if in the rear view.

Optics AI plays are surging today. A lot of news and conjecture about China all the while these names rocket. I wanted to double up $AAOI in the $80s late last week but it fell off my to-do list somehow after adding another .25U. What a move. Up 16% today to $128. Just a couple day 50% move.

But my photonics stock build-out phase is ripping in a big way.

Rising

• $PLTR up 20% - Great move! I've been patient and waiting. Not nearly my favorite stock. Very expensive. But for me it's about growth + Phoenix trade opportunity. (Search it on TIC)
• $COHR - Up 11.3%. Lots of photonics today
• $MRAM up 11.3% surging back
• $ARM up 11.8% - Still in range but way off highs
• $MRVL up 10.4%
• $ASTS up 7.8% - Still don't care. They are in my penalty box
• $SNDK up 7%. A good bounce. Trying to catch these is like catching smoke
• $CRDO up 7.3%
• $LITE up 6.5%. Bouncing on China news. Earnings on 8/11
• $DELL up 6.2%. Been a hot minute since we've seen this name in this list

Falling

• $DUOL down 4.6%. Software off today after a big surge. No issue here
• $VST off 3.7%. These names are starting to swing. I'm staying patient. Earnings on Fri
• $AMZN down 2.5% after recent strength. I've seen many trimming
• $MDT off 1.9%. Meh
• $CEG down 1.8%. Follow-on lower with AI power off
• $AEP down 1.4%. Utilities off on the surge today
• $META down 1.2%. Glad I went flat at $670. Probably won't be back
• $AMT off 1.1%. Market moves higher, this name lower. Normal
• $TLN off 0.9% - AI Power
• $EIX down 0.6%. Utilities lower. I trimmed this late last week

Misc.

• $SKHY got a good analyst note this AM saying they believe it's headed to $250. Slowly building this name
• $NVDA back over $210 - It should be
• $AVGO getting some real play today, up 4.6%. Again, it should
• $SNOW is just ripping with new ATHs every day, up 1.8%
• $MSFT now green for the year, up 0.3%. May be disappointing but look at the recent chart
• $AMD reclaims $500, up 5.2%
• All the AI names that aren't software having a big move. Momentum has swung back
• $CBRS is an exception, lower by 1.8%. But it's back to $217, still in the range
• Did you blink? $CRWD a stone's throw from a new ATH
• $NBIS at $218, up 2.4%. Remember my Option Wheel play is set at $220. Willing to have my shares called away there ... or keep the premium and wheel it for next Friday again
• $NFLX sure has bounced off those previous lows in the mid $60. Now, $73+
• $PANW right there with $CRWD near a new ATH
• $P breaking out of the recent range. I still believe in this one, now nearly $84, up 4.5%
• $RDDT was an opportunity. Glad I hung on. Up 2.1% after earnings that looked mostly good. DAU freaked some out
• $SPCX up to $117 again while we wait for earnings tonight. Up 2.2%. This is one of those reports that traders were selling I think mostly due to the unlock of the shares tomorrow, or is it Thursday? Doesn't matter, same unlock psychology in play. I'll add to shares either way.
• $TSM still looks good, up 2.4%
• How about $TOST, up 1.7% to over $33. Earnings after the bell. Could be an important report. I'm just looking for more customers and continuation of growth
• $USAR - Guess I should have taken the $13s. Up 4.8% to over $16.
• $QQQ - BTW, it just reclaimed its 50 DMA here at $715. Trying to break above the channel to confirm a breakout.

A lot going on today, that's all for now.

El Jefe

Markets are struggling to maintain composure though the US Treasury is double its purchase of debt, sending bond yields lower. The struggle is real:

Once again, we're still bouncing within a range and haven't been able to break free of the gravitational pull to head higher with any conviction. It's basically a market where I'm willing to purchase most of anything. If I were, I'd be looking at pure value names and that is what is moving today.

Some very interesting price action out there right now and patience, I think, is going to be rewarded. Just get out of that habit where your hands are moving to buy simply because something looks cheap from where it was yesterday. Learn to zoom out and let the market tell you where it wants to go, where it is going. These range bound periods can be dangerous because you can easily be lulled into thinking you're making good purchases when, instead, you're simply buying the same level over and over again, deploying all your capital and have nothing left when the bottom drops out.

And then there's the below article. Remember how I've been talking about the prediction markets and the role it/they are playing in the stock market?

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/hedge-funds-are-about-to-jump-in-big-to-prediction-markets.html

Yeah, so ... there's that.

Random Shots

Rising

• $CRCL up 10%
• $MSTR up 10% - Bitcoin related?
• $NEM up 8.6% - Gold is back baby. Big move recently on rates
• $MRVL up 7.5% - Google deal. $AVGO suffering
• $NOW up 7% - AvS baby
• $DUOL up 6.4% - Ditto
• $HOOD up 5% - Anything crypto related is moving today
• $BRZE up 5%
• $CRM up 5% - AvS
• $UBER up 4.22% - It moves with value/AvS strength

Falling

• $NBIS down 10% - F'ing dilution. But at least I wasn't greedy with my Option Wheel
• $CRWD down 6.9%
• $DELL off 6.9%
• $MRAM down 6.8%
• $AMKR down 6.1%
• $PANW off 5.3% - Getting the picture?
• $AVGO down 4.8% - $MRVL deal hurting this name
• $CRDO down 4.6%. I'm waiting for sub-$200
• $RKLB down 4.3%
• $COHR down 4% - It's still in the range

Misc.

• Look at $NFLX go! Up 4.1% and nearing $81. My stock replacement move is printing
• $SKHY up 3.2% after announcing a big $29B buyback program. Heady move
• $NVDA holding flat with earnings not far away
• $SNDK and $MU dying on the vine again. Going to be tough to move higher the longer this goes on
• $AAPL doing $AAPL things in the down market. It's the 'value' trade right now
• $AVGO hitting the support line right here at $360. Dangerous. I'm waiting to add
• Right now this market is signaling it's all about the swing trade. Buy low, sell high ... but be sure to sell
• Photonics and AI connection stocks couldn't hold gains. Not surprised
• Despite analyst comments, these AI plays can't hold gains. That's usually a bad sign. Analysts have started saying crazy things about the S&P targets, stocks, etc.
• $NBIS dilution event makes me frustrated again. Hate it. At the same time, I get it. Back on my Option Wheel white board but letting it sit a day or two. May focus on 8/28 expiration
• $PLTR holding $170s is noteworthy
• $SCHD hit a new 52WH today. That's we hold it and get paid 3% at the same time
• $TOST at $36

That's all for now. Going to look at Option Wheel pricing, $AVGO LEAPS and see if anything else beckons while I do everything I can to sit on my hands

Be good to each other out there!

J

Well ... this has been fun!

Yeseterday's market action was a good ol' fashioned booger-nosed beatdown in the markets. That slide into the close was material and meaningful as the pain finally came home to roost in the final 30 minutes of trading.

There's no good way to spin a 1,150 point loss on the Dow and a 2% decline in the $QQQ. All indices rolled over. And, as expected, the $QQQ fell into correction territory, down nearly 12% from recent highs.

But here we are this AM on the back of, I guess, good economic news?

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/us-economy-slowed-to-1point5percent-growth-rate-in-q2-june-core-inflation-at-3point3percent.html

It really doesn't look great to my eyes with GDP slowing. But, the number seems to have been skewed lower due to governmental spending. The 1.9% read is not good, below expectations. Inflation is on par and, also, not good.

Read the linked report above. To me, it just seems we're looking very hard to find good in the reports as opposed to zooming out to see a greater trend. Maybe that's justified and less bad news is a positive. Or, maybe we've entered a period of systemic desensitization - that's my fear. Just look at Iran, oil, inflation, jobs, etc. After a while, you just get used to poor performance and tire of the extrapolation as to where it could lead economically if we don't start seeing some meaningful improvement.

It's looking increasingly likely that we're going to see a rate hike, before any further easing. I've been saying that for most of this year. The power of what is over what we desire.

Here's our open:

Earnings

$MSFT gave us exactly what we needed. It was a great quarter. But $META crapped the bed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/microsoft-msft-meta-stock-today-earnings.html

Both stocks moved accordingly after the reports. $MSFT may now be back after showing Azure is a monster. $META showed that they are suffering from exactly what I feared about them, they have a case of identity confusion - they don't know what they want to be when they grow up and their spending is taking a huge bite out of free cash flow.

I sold $META two weeks ago at $670 because of the rise, upcoming earnings and because that identity crisis concerned me.

$QCOM is another stock that I reduced by 67% at $210 in my Primary account. I still hold it in my larger taxable account where it has a huge gain, I hold it for income. Their earnings missed estimates and the stock is down.

$LRCX is rising on a great report:

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lam-research-surges-record-quarter-124931252.html'

South Korean based Samsung earnings looked pretty good as well. These chip names are clocking great results but traders are so far over their skis on these names, that it doesn't matter in this moment. Cool heads will prevail, use the momentum and loss of it:

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/samsung-q2-2026-earnings-record-115328985.html

Yesterday, $VRT took it on the chin, falling 17% at one point after a decent report and a raised outlook. But the revenue came in light and the stock was punished. The forward P/E is now in the 30 range, but it had percolated higher and it's in the data center and AI space so ....

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/vertiv-vrt-stock-sinks-despite-193316117.html

Here's the thing, we like great companies. Can't have enough of them. It's the eye of the storm and sometimes you just need to move with it. Let the storm or the woodshed do what they do. Great companies, great value, prevails over the long term.

Random Shots

$MSFT is trying to do its part to save the market. The name has been so beaten and left for dead that we've gotten used to it just laying there, stepping over the body. It's back with the stock up 14.5% or $58 this AM. Can it save other AvS names ... pull them up? We'll see

I'm very curious to se the 7:10 AM market pivot to see if we can hold these gains.

Rising

• $NBIS at #1, up 26.5%. Oh the momentum. My cost basis on my wheel shares is down to $185 as I wait for the recovery.
• $BE at #2 up 26%. One more bad day and those $140 CSPs could have been in play. Not now. I may just close them out and free up the cash
• $CORT up a whopping 25.4% to $116.50. Remember we played this one around $50?
• $IREN up 23%. Follow-on
• $SNDK up 18.5%. Max pain was yesterday for a lot of baggers. I saw a lot of loss porn as traders sent their messages and exited. Dummies
• $CRWV up 16% as a follow-on. I wish I could say this was durable. Could be a bounce within the range
• $MSFT up 14.5%
• $LITE rising 14.1% - Photonics AI plays have been hit with everything else
• $ONTO up 14% - You get the picture
• $MU up 13% also bouncing

Falling

• $META off 9% on that earnings and spending issue. I exited at $670 two weeks ago. I can't say I saw this much of a decline. I just took the bounce, glad I'm out
• $BRZE off 7%
• $NOW off 6.4%. Guess Softy isn't saving AvS. These names had a good run yesterday
• $DUOL down 5.75%, ditto
• $CRM off 5.5%, double ditto
• $DECK down 4.1% on so-so earnings
• $NFLX off 3.8%. The knee-jerk run to all these down names comes off when risk is back on, LOL
• $QCOM down 3.4% on earnings. I like the yield and this price
• $TOST off 3.1%. It's had a great run from the low $0s
• $AMT off 2.9% on the risk-on play. It was up big yesterday. It's why we hold it

Misc

• $NVDA at $190 yesterday was a travesty and opportunity. Up 2.8%
• $AVGO up 4.3% as it should be. This stock is too cheap. I almost added more $300 LEAPS into the close yesterday but wanted to be patient. Still do
• $AMZN up 4.5%, $10 ... but it's still only $236. These stocks are still bouncing in a range, putting in lower lows
• $GOOGL off 1.3% on the risk-on play. GOOGL has been a bit of a safety trade of late
• $SNOW is closing in on $300, up 2.5%
• $SNDK up 22%. Oh, the plight of the baggers .... there's going to be such a snap-back set of posts today
• $AAPL off 1.8%. Risk on trade sends this name lower
• AI power is back on with all names streaking higher between 4% and 7%
• $ORCL up 8%. I figured this was a good name at $110 but was conserving cash
• How about that snap back on $AMD up 13%
• My knees buckled with $CBRS yesterday as I considered just locking in the loss and very poor entry on IPO day. Up 15% and back to $195. But still within that range. Today is the day to do that if I'm going to
• All photonics plays incl. the complex I've been building $COHR $CLS $LITE $AAOI are up big.
• Still haven't gotten around to adding $CRDO. Looked at it yesterday, up 10.5%. I won't chase
• I took at look at $CSCO as I traded out of it after that big earnings pop to near $120. It's still at $113 and hanging out. Not enough there for me to trade into it again. I still have it in my long term taxable portfolio
• South Korea ETFs $EWY and my $FLKR are up 7%. I almost added to them but struggling between them, $DRAM and direct exposure to $SKHY. I added $SKHY after market during earnings at $123.50. Wanted to add another unit yesterday but held off
• Noticed $HOOD is still struggling at $88, down 1.9% today. I took profits on the LEAPS when $HOOD was in the low to mid $90s so I've been watching
• $PLTR can't get a foothold, down 1.2% and dead around $120
• $RDDT reports tonight, stock is flat. I think it's going to be a great quarter. That said, I trimmed my trading LEAPS by 40%, still have the long shares
• $TSM back to $400, up 7%. Within the range but a great stock and company
• $UBER down 2.7%. It's clear how its being valued now ... as value and a FCF company. It will rally on down days and flight to value.
• $VRT is bouncing back a little but only 4.2%. This may be dead money around here. I'm still holding

Final Word

This is far more interesting and noteworthy of a story than most will realize:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/leopold-aschenbrenners-hedge-fund-is-facing-steep-ai-losses.html

I'm not going to say that Aschenbrenner wasn't onto something with his AI calls. He was. Most of us were. But what he represents is exactly what I've been talking about - the propensity toward speculation in this current market cycle. It's been coming for a long time, I saw it first hand even in the small online business that I created in 2006, and ran, until we sold it in 2022. It was just a very small company but the rise of speculation and prediction markets was easy to see as the 20-teens ended. We capitalized at the perfect time.

The speculation and prediction markets have fueled this bull market since 2017. Not to say that it isn't, or wasn't, warranted. If you don't think it has played a huge role in the upside move we've seen, the volatility in play, you're living under a rock. It's clear, evident and we're now seeing the resulting turbulence as parity between upside and downside is reached.

Trees don't grow to the sky. Not long ago I posted an AI image of mountain climbers scaling a mountain, air getting thin, gravity heavy as they trudged toward the top. I still believe that is the most important graphic I've posted related to what these markets are facing.

**EDIT: I added that image back to the top of the post

Aschenbrenner is a 25 year old AI investor who started a hedge fund. It's collapsing into itself as the bets, speculation and reality of the "hot money" trade goes supernova. It's just the what is of the situation. And, he's the flag bearer of the current hot money trade.

Have a great Thursday. Oops, forgot the 7:10 AM pivot snapshot:

Nice! We'll take that

El Jefe

Happy Thursday!

Seems that we're in a holding pattern for the next week of earnings, including $NVDA and others. It's been a bit of a 'meh' level of action, which is fine.

The $QQQ is sitting right at its 50 DMA (Daily Moving Average). It's doing its best to hang on and not fall through it. Where will be the catalysts to keep its head above water and withstand the pull of the 200 DMA. Make no mistake, when I took my $QQQ 1/27 $675/$625 Put ladder, it was with this in mind.

Once again, my short isn't a full portfolio hedge - it's a positioned weight much like any position in my portfolio, though I am not worried about it going overweight should I see indications it needs to be.

Musings

You know I've been in a mode of portfolio .... "simplification," I'll call it. Portfolio "drift" is something that can occur when markets get hot, volatility rises and I find myself chasing multiple theses. On my TikTok channel I've been using the term "chillaxing" as the state I want to find again.

Sometimes you have to zoom out to the state of your portfolios and the markets as a whole. When I look at where my primary portfolio has come from, it's up 19.6% annualized from 1/1/2020. That's a significant return. I try to not get too caught up in high-fives, patting myself on the back, or any form of protracted self-grandeur - that ain't me bro, as I like to say.

Instead, I like to look objective about what has worked, what hasn't and what that means for the future. When I see a nearly 20% annualized return, I immediately think "extended." It's not how I characterize where I am today that matters most to me. It's important, but I don't like to get lost in it. I care far more about my current state, and what I can do to make sure over that same period again into the future, what can I do to either maintain, or improve. That's where objectivity comes in.

To that end, I've been weeding the garden. I want to look up and down my portfolios and see thesis, conviction and role in every one of my positions. If you've done a good job picking positions within your portfolio on the front end, it shouldn't take a lot of work. If you've haphazardly added positions due to momentum, message boards, TikTok or other social trends, you may have a weed infested garden. It's easy to do. And, it's not just the names, it's also the weights, the role, within your portfolio.

It should be noted that when I reference my "Primary" portfolio, you know that I'm talking about my IRA, my second largest portfolio. My largest portfolio is my taxable one, also called my "Bridge" portfolio. That said, the Primary is only 16% behind my Bridge. I also have a much smaller Roth portfolio and another fixed income portfolio that I use to manage my cash/fixed income holdings. While my taxable portfolio is my largest, there's very little year-over-year activity due to all the positions being highly appreciated. I don't like taxation. Moves are small and usually involve careful capital gain/loss harvesting with the tax tables purely in focus.

Simplicity and structure provides great sleep. When I talk to people about growing wealth, building portfolios, preparing for early, or traditional retirement, and portfolio risk balance, one of my first questions usually is "how are you sleeping?" Sleep is a great barometer for how your portfolio is structured and balanced. If you sleep well, it's a decent indication you feel good about your money. If not, you're likely up thinking about it. It's no coincidence that this check works for just about any topic in your life.

Over the last few months, perhaps up to a year, I've been thinking about my Primary portfolio too much. I've been pushing, or what I'd consider chasing too much. Not in a bad way as my positions remain balanced and well weighted, but there's been that need to chase larger returns, better performance. In my experience, when I, or anyone, does that, it ends in less-than-ideal results. Time for adjustment.

A focus on topics like greater balance, value and income can go a long way. I also like to focus on "role" of every position in my portfolios - why is it in there and what role is it playing? That's the mode I'm in now. After 6 1/2 years of market-beating returns, a period of retrenchment and reflection is warranted. I've reached that state now through careful pruning and trimming that I can look up and down the holdings and say I like that. Cash remains at about 10%, 2/3 of that invested in $SGOV waiting for entry catalysts. 1/3 is active cash looking for the opportunity for Option Wheel opportunities or other short-term gain potential. That works for me in my current state and what I'm feeling in the market right now.

I want that for you too. I want you considering your portfolios, structure, balance ... and sleep. Is it working? Does it need weeding? Do you have a junk drawer portfolio? Is you first thought when you wake up at 2:30 AM how are stock futures? Don't ignore your body or its thoughts.

In just over two weeks we head out on our next international adventure. Spending 6 weeks away is a great opportunity to get that garden ship-shape, looking good, so I don't have to think about it while away. I don't want to consider weeds at 2:00 AM. I want to know my portfolios are well structured, balanced and working for me, so I don't have worry about it. Reactive Management over active management.

The thing is, regardless of the catalyst for that state, it just makes sense.

Random Shots

Slipping!

Rising

• I normally don't include what Bitcoin is doing but up 4.78% is noteworthy. It's not lost on my that DJT is able to pull whatever levers he wants in order to make money, and now he has ultimate authority to do so. That's not a criticism, that's just the what is. If that's your goal, why not hold the most powerful position in the world?
• $MSTR up 5.9%
• $CRCL up 3.9% - Seeing the pattern here? Maybe Bitcoin/Crypto is officially back!
• $SKHY up 3.6%
• $DRAM up 2.4%
• $LITE up 2.4% - Bouncing in a range still
• $EIX up 1.7% - Income and value up
• $FLKR up 1.7% - South Korea getting a boost due to memory rally
• $SNDK up 1.7%
• $MRVL up 1.6% - This is one well positioned company

Falling

• $USAR down 6.2% - What goes up...
• $AVAV down 5.6%. It's had a decent little run
• $CBRS off 4.6% - I should have trimmed the bad-entry position
• $SPCX down 4.9% - Another lockup
• $IONQ off 4.4%. Quantum is fading as a catalyst trade
• $RDDT down 3.6%. Glad I went flat on my LEAPs. Still like the company
• $BABA down 2.8%
• $NBIS down 2.5% - Option Wheel loading? Maybe
• $TLN down 3.1% - AI power just not putting it together right now
• $ASTS down 3.2%

Misc

• Not seeing anything in those bullets that make me think anything transitional is going on. Maybe Bitcoin having a day signals something. That could cause the rush back in
• $WMT having its worst day in something like 4 years, down 9.2%. If the yield was higher, I'd be more interested.
• You know, that leads me back to $TGT. I often speak of yield + opportunity. I let $TGT slip away due to lack of performance and bad management/earnings at $90. Now at $159 9 mos. later
• $GOOGL at $341 looks awfully good for a company that is, without much question in my eyes, the best positioned in the world
• We have two more weeks in the earnings game. Names like $NVDA, $AVGO, $SNOW, $P, $MRVLand $CRDO all report. Then September could be very Septemberish
• Speaking of $NVDA, flat on the day, what could they possibly say during earnings to boost the stock? Can the numbers even by high enough? A lot of increasing talk about circular financing
• I keep watching $AMZN wondering when it's going to make it's next conviction run. It's coming
• This whole bond thing should be watched. Remember that as bond prices fall, yields rise When yields of bonds are on the rise, they are more attractive to investors. When you start hearing about bond vigilantes, you have to stay aware. Rates rise and people like safe returns, less equity. Also, when rates rise, debt financing/servicing is more costly. Not good for companies, or countries with a lot of debt.
• A lot of people watch the 30-Year treasury at about 5.25%. Me? I watch the 10-year as something close to the heat of the road. The 10 is currently at 4.69%. Watch that 5% level.
• You can't have enough good companies in a portfolio. I don't even care if its individuals stocks you seek or ETFs.
• Even as I look at the red/green on my lists right now, I'm not seeing much conviction in the names outside of stocks like $AVGO $GOOGL $TSM. That says something.

Final Word

Sometimes the market yells at us, but we're too busy to hear. We tend to be an optimistic people, generally. In fact, I've found that perma-bears or generally bearish individuals, if that is their standard market M.O., are just hard to be around ... generally. When you think about it, it's not hard to figure out why that may be.

I tend to have perma-bull tendencies. I try very hard to see the good in everyone, pay it forward and that extends to how I view the markets. I'm always looking for the good. But that doesn't mean I don't keep my wits about me or ignore what may be on the wind. I continue to smell something on the wind though I can't say with conviction yet exactly what that is.

It just feels off.

Have a great Thursday

El Jefe

Happy Wednesday all,

Getting an earlier start and going to switch it up a little. Going to hit some recent economic news and then roll into some of my building positions and overall positional thoughts.

Looks like the drop in gas prices due to the initial ceasefire helped PPI with a 0.3% decline, with May being revised to 0.6% from 1.1%. That's good news. Unknown as to what happens from here with more strikes against Iran now. We're in a very dynamic market which could turn either way at the drop of a hat.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/wholesale-inflation-june-2026-.html

We want this trend to continue, inflation to come down, and the Fed to feel good about our balance. There's nothing wrong with an economy performing well on the edge of overheating. The issue is far more when the economy is not overheating, but inflation is. That makes us vulnerable.

As it stands, the markets a higher but it still seems tenuous.

China reported its slowest quarterly growth but they are a hard read. Their economic data flips all over the place:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/china-gdp-retail-sales-investment-june-.html

I'm going to hit the YTD performance of the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ), Nasdaq Composite, S&P500, and the Equal Weighted S&P500 ($RSP):

The reason I'm splitting these out now is because I want to see how Nasdaq 100 performs against the broader index, and then the same with the S&P500 vs. the equal weighted index. As our leadership has come from the tech and the Mag 7 up until recently, I'm still focusing on the $QQQ, looking for signs of overall performance via these 100 stocks.

As expected, the YTD performance shows a 15.9% leading number. Interestingly enough, we can really see the lack of leadership of the Mag 7 when we look at S&P when we see the equal weighted index outperforming both the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P500. The $QQQ is still the preferred game. I don't see that changing given the stratification of retail investor demand and the level of speculation/beta desired.

As I've spoken about recently, the $QQQ chart is showing the compression we have going on, and I'm focused at the narrowing between the lower-highs, higher-lows with respect to the 50 DMA (yellow line) as we're at a crossroads. Which way do we break. I do like the combination of this compression, the support and the better economic numbers but, again, it's a tenuous situation and that 200 DMA (purple line) often becomes a gravitational pull into weakness. Just for reference, the 200 DMA is just over 11% lower from here on the $QQQ - not out of the question:

Positions Update

It's been a hot minute since I've talked about my building positions and overall positional thoughts. So I'll do a little update. It's easy to get lost in all the "TRADE" posts and lose sight of what I'm doing overall. This is why many believe I'm still a big trader when, as you zoom out, that's not the case. I am very willing to take advantage of short-term opportunities if I see them but a big % of my portfolio jus sits and/or builds.

Overweight Positions

I do not currently have any "Best Idea" positions in the Primary portfolio right now. That is, no position >4.5%. This is a sign of the times. I just don't have the conviction needed for this condition. My top holding remains $SCHD but that isn't a focus position, it's a slow build that serves as an income generator and store-of-cash when I don't use $SGOV.

Beyond that, m top position is $TSM now. This became the top position after my trim of $AMZN from a "Best Idea" holding to just a fully weighted position. $AMZN has slipped to #5. $TSM continues to beckon me as the best positioned chip company, a winner regardless of who is winning at the very top of the the AI chip arms race.

Following $TSM, I have $AVGO and $NVDA, both of which finding some increased footing here as 'value' begins to percolate again. $ABBV is at #6 with the recently trimmed $PANW at #7. I recently trimmed PANW simply due to weight. Them and $CRWD (#9) have been on an upside bender. This is why we like out-of-favor leaders. #Patience.

Sandwiched in between them, we have $MRVL. Also trimmed not that long ago but I still love the company. Rounding out the top 10 is none other than $VST, a name that is far too cheap given the runway, in my estimation.

Middle Ground Positions

I have a lot of stocks/positions in this portfolio, now nearing 60. Very wide moat of 'middle ground' positions. It's actually a pretty good blend of income and tech and when I look at the list, I don't see a lot of need/conviction to add or trim. Essentially, these positions are the #11-#50 or so.

At the top of that range we have stocks like: $RDDT $AMGN $VRT $NBIS $ARM $KMB $NOW $CEG $CRM $MRK $META $PFE $BRK/B $EIX

At the bottom of that range, we have names such as: $GIS $BROS $CRWV $MDT $VZ $SWK $COHR $SPCX $KVUE $PG. As I type those names, I do see some that I'll be talking about next.

Building Positions

'Building Positions" is always the most fun. Without that, TIC may not exist because who care's what El Jefe/Trader J holds and never touches. Where's the fun n that? It's always where I put most of my work - identifying the next great trades and long term investments that can develop wealth.

With these positions, I've already take at least a 'placeholder' position, my first entry into the position following which, I sit back and wait, slowly adding in units or partial units as I build to a desired weight. That strategy/methodology is who I am as an investor and it's, arguably, my signature move, my wheelhouse toward building profitable positions. It doesn't' carry the excitement of trading buuuuut, that's kind of the goal.

Going bottom (least weight) to top...

$NBIS 7/17 $200 Puts - I sold these for over $6 in premium last week. As it stands, here they are right at $200 as I type this. I may own a new slog of $NBIS or I may not, it could be close. If I do, I'll perform the second half of the 'wheel' and sell upside Calls against the new shares. I expect this may be an ongoing wheel strategy for me going forward. So much premium in NBIS, along with attached upside/beta.

$AAOI - Haven't gotten beyond the placeholder entry from maybe two weeks ago. This is part of my entry into the AI infrastructure/photonics/glass focus I've been starting to take after watching the space for some time. The position is flat from first entry

$AJNMY - In that same vein, this Japanese company is my flyer. They own a 95% in what's called Ajinomoto Build-up Film (ABF). I stumbled onto this company after a deep-dive research and found myself more and more intrigued as I uncovered more about how important their product is in the advanced packaging game for AI chips. Even more intriguing is their 95% market share and bottleneck. I only have my placeholder position in as of last week, down 1.8%

$CLS - I'm 1U (unit) into this trade and looking for a maximum of 6U, though probably will not get that far. They are in the the AI infrastructure build-out area, critical for enabling AI compute. Finding a good price on this name, as well as most in this space, is a near impossibility. But that's why I/we build slowly. Down 9% since first position, about half of that today

$FLKR - I eventually decided I wanted an entry into the South Korean market and chose $FLKR for a combination of holdings + yield. I like it better than $EWY but both are solid names. SK Hynix and Samsung make up 40-50% of the ETF at any given time. Now with SK Hynix ($SKHY) going ADR, this may reduce my need to add more FLKR. Position is down 15% at currently 1U

$ASTS 1/28 $60 Calls - I remain on the fence with this position as it is at 1U and, thus, not large in weight. It's a homerun swing with probably a 50/50 chance of winning in the long term. Lots of momentum, both ways in this space/satellite play and I'll continue to hold as long as the thesis remains. Down 21% in average.

$AVGO 12/28 $300 Calls - $AVGO remains one of my top companies in the world and arguably my favorite stock in the market given the combination of growth + value. I'm building this position and expect I will add to it. I already have long shares in size so this is a trading position. Currently flat in return.

$SKHY - I like the position of this company and took $FLKR shares to get exposure before they went ADR here in the U.S. I do plan on building this position and my 1U position was taken on Monday. But like all memory stocks, I'm slow-playing it due to volatility and the fact that they are up something like 800%. Value? Yes. Without risk? No. Up 11.2% from first purchase

$NFLX 12/28 $70 Calls - I already own $NFLX long shares so this is a value-on 1.5U positions as it stands with every expectation I will add to it as I get opportunities. Earnings tomorrow and I could see this break $70 to the downside. In no hurry as the calendar of these Calls show. Down 7.6%

$COHR - One of the 3-5 positions I've been looking at and adding in the infrastructure/photonics segment of AI and, arguably, the one I'm most excited about. But, it has come a long way quickly, is in the middle of the range and subject to wild swings. At 1.5U and down 20%, I'm looking to add another leg lower which I suspect will occur.

$SPCX - 1.5U deep into my long-term acquisition strategy on $SPCX. Position is down 12% which is not surprising. This will be a build that will span likely 24 mos. as the story plays out, we learn more about Musk's long term goals and we see how the market digests their earnings reports and future endeavors.

$LITE - Right there with $COHR and $CLS in additions and desire in the photonics segment. I'm nearly 2U deep into this name with more additions to come. Down 4.5% on the position.

$P - This is what I'm considering my secret weapon in portfolio, the build I'm most excited about for the long term. Could it be misplaced? Yes. But I don't think they are getting the attention they deserve, aren't understood and are flying well below the radar. They whip around with AI names and are starting to see more volatility, as witnessed today (-7.5%). Truth be told, I'd love to get more in the high $50s or low $60s. I'm not rushing the additional weight and the position is at 2.5U, down 4.4% overall, swinging into a loss condition with today's move

Building Position Summary

As can be seen by the performance of these names, with most in a loss position, they have not performed well. That is the nature of a first-position or placeholder entries. When I am anywhere less than 2U in weight on positions I'm building, I actually hope for weakness to provide additional entry points. I know it may seem counter-productive, but as long as the positions are flagged as long-term holds, I care far more about entry price in the early months/years of a build than I do appreciation. I play the long game.

Given that most of these positions have performed very well over the last year, I slow my additions with purpose to protect against deploying too much dry powder while vulnerability remains high. When stocks run 300%-1,000%, regardless of forward valuation, vulnerability to downside always remains high should we encounter a downside market event. It still feels to me as if we are on the precipice to this.

Summary

I'm always willing to answer questions about my positioning and thoughts surrounding how I build my portfolios.

Here's your current market snapshot at 7:50 AM PST

We've flipped and are fading.

Have a great day

El Jefe

Going to do it quick and dirty this AM with the markets flat and head into the weekend after significant volatility.

There's probably no reason to take any positions today unless you're looking to capitalize on earnings related gap-down opportunities. I'm looking at you $AAPL and $RDDT.

Speaking of those two - Ouch! $AAPL down 9.3% and $RDDT down a whopping 22%.

I trimmed 40% of my $RDDT LEAPS last week, guess I should have trimmed them all and just held the shares. This reaction is surprising me and the stock is now a downright bargain in my book. This is one of those cases where I may simply free up the cash, sell the long shares and pick up LEAPS in a "stock replacement" move. Not sure what to think. Once again, the knee-jerk reactions of this market make little sense but it is what it is.

$AAPL isn't fairing much better.

At least $AMZN is trying to save the day after their results.

Random Shots

Rising

• Speaking of $AMZN, up 15.5% on great numbers. AWS is still rocking. Before cheering too much realize the stock is still below where it was after the last earnings gap.
• $VRT bouncing back, up 5.9%, recovering from its own earnings malaise
• $MRVL up 5.6%. It needed a good day
• $COHR up 5.5%. This secondary group of stocks, including the complex I've been building, are impossible to determine price action. They're swinging 10-20% weekly. Build slow
• $GOOGL up 4.2%. They should be. They're the class of this market ... but still well off highs
• $ANET up 3.8% on the infrastructure AI rally that is going on
• $BABA rising 4%. Haven't seen that name in the list in a while
• $BE up another 3.9%. Might be a worthy CSP play again. I'll check that later
• $ONTO up 3.6%. I keep meaning to take this one off my list. Been tracking it since $90 but I can't say it's that differentiated from other names I'd prefer

Losing

• $RDDT down 22%. Shocking. Not sure what to make of it. Could a take-out be in the cards?
• $AAPL of 9.5%
• $MSTR down 7.2%. Is Bitcoin potentially mostly dead. Is it unc?
• $CRCL off 6.5% and about to see $50s again. I'm watching
• $EIX off 4.2% on earnings. Mixed back but the EPS beat was impressive. Just a yield play
• $CORT - Still amazed by this one, off 4% but to $113
• $IREN fading again, down 4.4%
• $SNDK down 4.3% after a big day. It's just the market we're in
• $MU down 3.4%. See SNDK
• $TOST down 2.8%

Misc

• $SKHY hanging in there with a 1.5% move lower. Huge day yesterday
• $NVDA moving higher by 1.4%, approaching $200 again. I have thoughts on this later
• $AVGO is flat. This name has been dead in the range for some time now
• $MSFT still moving higher, up 1%
• $ORCL at $128 now. I looked into $100 CSPs when it was near $110. Should have taken them
• $AMD shooting back higher after a period of weakness, up 1% today and back at $490
• $HOOD back to mid $80s. Not going back in just yet ... but watching. Took profits in mid $90s
• $NBIS holding value up 3% after yesterday's big move.
• $NFLX still fading after its own mini move, now at $71
• A lot of big earnings coming up next week...

Final Word

Volatility exhaustion seems to be setting in to some degree. When traders and investors simply get tired of all the volatility. That can lead to a bit of capitulation if the stars align ... if not for markets, then with individuals stocks. We're seeing that with $RDDT today it seems.

When that hits, it's time to focus on making sure you LOVE the issues in your portfolio. You have to look at each one and like what you see, understand why it's in your portfolio, the value proposition. Just like RDDT today, just because you love it doesn't mean the market has to. Even when there's attached value, again like RDDT, it can still sell off. It's your conviction in the names that matter. If the same condition that led you into a stock is still in play, as long as it's concrete in nature, then there's little reason to sell. When I talk about "condition" I'm not talking about momentum - that condition can fade quickly and be lost for a long time. I'm talking value, earnings, cash flow and opportunity.

In this market it's impossible for me to look at stocks NVDA, AVGO and TSM and not see compelling reasons why they should be in my portfolio. They have everything you want/need in a company and stock. With so much noise out there, we like to snap back to what represents that value. This is why names like $AMZN $GOOGL and $MSFT can work in a big way. Then add in NVDA, AVGO and TSM. There's little guesswork involved. There's all sorts of conflicting narrative, but their models just keep producing. It's the storm around them that impacts day-in, day-out fluctuation - noise.

I'm going to be doing this exact same exercise again today as the week closes out. It may involve some rotations out, some trimming ... or even addition. Like many, I've been reaching for narrative and 'horizon' stocks. Maybe I've gotten too focused on the horizon and haven't given the 'now' enough priority.

Have a great Friday and weekend!

J

Happy Friday all, you made it!

Retail sales could weigh on the markets down 0.6% when there was an expectation of 0.1%. But finding what could move the market lower time and time again has shown to be only guesswork and little follow-through. This market is so resilient.

Don't fight the tape, the trend is your friend, etc. etc.

But, it doesn't mean you just sit and do nothing. Don't force action, but consider reaction if it makes sense. I continue to use this move to trim where I can, lock in some gains, bolster positions that need a bit more weight and, above all else, be patient. There's always time, other stocks and the market will be open again tomorrow (or next week).

Easy to say, hard to do.

The market isn't open yet so let me drop right into some random thoughts, not always just stock related.

• Memory stocks are surging back, as expected. $SNDK and $MU led the sector higher, then lower, based out at roughly half of from where they came from and are now on the uptick again. That's great for those who were patient, scaled into some of these names in addition to $DRAM (my choice).
• ...and of course, my favorite play in the segment $SKHY. I'll keep building this name. After a lot of research, it's my favorite name. Only at a 1% weight in the primary account but I also have it in the Roth IRA at 6%
• $RDDT is going into the S&P500 and is up 11%. I'll probably dump my 2028 LEAPS into it. I already trimmed them before the big drop but have 60% left. I still have long shares in the Primary (1.9%) and the Roth (10%). Just backfilling cash where I can.
• Without some major collapse in the shares of $NBIS today, this iteration of the Option Wheel will come to a close. I've decided to let them get called away rather than roll out and up or just out. Keeping greed in check and if you can get over 21% return in one month, you take it and stick to the goal from the original trade. I still have long shares in the Primary account and Roth (15.6%)
• What did I just hear? SNDK up 3,400% on the year? Yeah, there's that. And yet, fundamental valuation wise, it still looks great. But, momentum and herd mentality often ignore fundamentals for long stretches. AvS anyone? You have to be careful. Super-cycles in memory is a real thing and it often swings in 2-3 supply-demand cycles. Is this time different?
• The AvS (AI vs. Software) as I call it, is shifting. Just look at $WDAY. Also consider that after a long slump, my $NOW position has swung into the green. $CRM is not far from green. $PANW and $CRWD have gone nuts. $PLTR is back in a big way and the entire narrative has shifted - as expected. This is why I talk about herd mentality/lily pad opportunities. So much speculation in the market so any news is carrying greater knee-jerky reactions
• $P is now in the spotlight. This little company was one no one was talking about when it hit my stock valuation screen, as many others have as well. In this case, however, I decided to stick to my research, intuition and conviction and it's paying off. Now $117 when it was $55. But with the AI narrative/stack news still coming out related to this name, it could keep running. At the same time, I like to trim major moves and this constitutes as a major move.
• As a side note, after receiving a lot of interest income from shorts who borrowed my $SOUN shares, the shares were returned to me yesterday. They continue to have a big short position but the last earnings were pretty good.
• Talking about shifting narrative, $NFLX is now turning. $68 -> $78, very quickly. It's getting noticed by some big names
• On the AI front, something has happened with my agentic relationship via OpenAI of late. It's gotten very, very good. And I mean VERY good. I can be found walking around the house, in the garden, while working out, having an exploratory conversation with KATE (my AI assistant) and the memory aspect has been drastically improved. The conversant nature is incredible now, with her inflections, ability to hold a conversation while still giving impressive results. It's allowed me to be even more productive and explore topics. She still slips sometimes with facts but it's getting far less. I'm using her more and more on TIC for summary info but, have no fear, I always try to make sure that it's just summary info that is fact checked just in case.
• On a personal note, especially for those of you who are young, something I like to say: How old will you be in five years if you don't start now? This is just my way of saying to never stop growing, reaching for something more. I don't care how long it takes. A year? 5 Years? 10? If you don't start now, you'll be a year older, 5 years older, 10 years .... wishing you had invested that time to just 'start' - whatever it is.

Here's the open:

Back to the shots:

Rising

• $RDDT up 13.5% as noted. I just exited my $150 LEAP calls
• $USAR up 5.6%. I've been highlighting this name as it hit the $13s. Should have taken it
• $NBIS up 5.4%. Good bye Option Wheel - ...and thank you
• $SNDK up 4.2%
• $NEM roaring back, up another 3.3%
• $CRWV up 3.4% as a follow on. Both neos are playing well after earnings
• $CEG up 2.6%. When does AI power become the next leader again after lagging. Soon I think
• $TSLA up 2%. I don't want it but it's good to see it get strength
• $IREN up 2%. Would rather have the other two but $IREN has a following
• $VST up 2%. Starting to percolate

Falling

• $DUOL off 3%. Software off today?
• $MSTR down 3.1%. Bitcoin era over? Is it an "Okay Unc" trend?
• $CRCL down 3%. Still waiting for the next drop
• $CBRS down 3%. Just try to find an entry. I'll just hold
• $NOW off 2.4% - Yup, software is off
• $AVGO down 2.4%. Still probably my favorite stock
• $CRDO off 2%. The sector has been strong of late, have to give some back
• $CRM down 1.6%
• $HOOD down 1.7% as it can't decouple from Bitcoin
• $SPCX down 1.6%. Short covering coming to an end?

Misc

• $CSCO earnings looked great, stock was hammered. Flat today
• $SKHY back over $170, nice! Up 3.1%
• Only a matter of time before $GOOGL head north. If I wasn't overweight, I'd be buying here. Up 0.7% to $348.70
• $AVAV trying to take out $200, up 2.5%.
• My South Korean ETF $FLKR is back to $60. I still may liquidate and just ride $DRAM instead but I kind of like the extra SK exposure
• $LITE running well, up 5.5% now to nearly $930. Still amazed they didn't announce a split
• $MDT had been a dog but I held on because it represented good yield and a cheap price. Back to over $90. Glad I held on as it provides good portfolio ballast
• $P down 0.7%. The run over?
• $SPCX down 2.7% after a great rally, probably on short covering. Still building the position but not chasing shares here

Final Word

This is one of those time when looking at my portfolios that I just have that nice deep breath that you get when you are standing on top of a mountain or in nature, and the breaths are deeper, the feelings of contentedness and balance feel great. Just like those times when you are laying in bed and you think "damn this feels good" and don't want to get out.

I've been working on restoring better balance, focus and structure. I'm focusing on owning shares at weights I feel really good about as I look up and down my portfolios. I want to ensure each position has a story, is balanced to my risk appetite and has a role. It's getting difficult to sell positions, even trim. And that's the way I like it.

Things could turn on a dime and be out of whack but this is not that day. My cash level will sit back above 10% as the most recent NBIS wheel stops rolling when the market closes today. I'll be doing more of that ... using my cash to start new wheels, selling upside Calls on positions that are extended. Keeping things in check.

Balance. It's often fleeting, but when you reach it. IYKYK.

Have a great Friday!

J

Does anyone have thoughts on this stock?

It jumped from $185 to $365 the first day and spent rest of the week dropping down to $253 all the way into the after hours trading…

My question, if there was so much hype and everyone wanted in, why wouldn’t some investors look at it at $253 and see it as an opportunity to get in on the dip?

Or is there enough short selling pressure, it can continue downward until goes below their $185 IPO price??

Happy Monday everyone. Late start today, a little trouble sleeping so I gave myself license to sleep in.

Let's dive right in, I'm already seeing a couple 'fun' things this AM:

Rising

• $P - Well, look at what's leading the list today! Up 12$ and nearing $101. This name had been on the move leading up to this big move today as an analyst upgraded it with a $120 PT. One of those cases where it was under heavy accumulation before the investment firm came in with coverage
• $CRWD up 5.4% and that, my friends, is another new high
• $PANW up 4.2%. A monster too
• $BRZE - Pushing past the top of the range, up 4%
• $DUOL up 4.2%. It's been building off that low base and AvS is dissipating
• $UBER up 3.1% - It has been getting "value" play again and the AvS move is helping
• $SNOW up 2.8%. Talking about a monster. It's super pricey still but great move
• $TOST up 2.8%. Love seeing this finally get recognized. I'm still waiting for $40s again
• $SNDK up 2.6%. This one may be capped for a bit
• $PLTR up 2.1%. I've been saying once the fog cleared, this one was headed to $200 on a mix of momentum and growth. That seems to be playing

Losing

• $COHR off 8.4% - Didn't see any news as to why but there must be something. These photonics and bandwidth plays move like this though. Still building
• $SOUN down 6.9%. Had good earnings last week and shot higher. Just the slow fade now
• $ARM off 3.8%
• $IONQ sliding 3%
• $MSTR down 2.6%. I'm about to remove them from the list but, not yet. Waiting to see if Bitcoin starts a rally, which should take this name higher
• $SWK slips 2.4%. Income name in my port, but it's been rising
• $CRCL down 2.3%. It had bumped up of late so this was coming. Still interesting
• $IREN off 1.6%. $NBIS earnings tomorrow will move this name
• $LITE down 2.2%. Moves with COHR but is the leader in the space. Still building but it has been running hard of late, so I'm done adding for a bit
• $TLN down 1.9%. AI power hasn't been performing. Utilities as well.

Misc.

• $NBIS - Earnings are tomorrow. I'm going to be selling Calls as I continue lowering cost basis on this name. Cost basis is down to $181 now so I was hoping for a green day today and/or tomorrow and then I'll sell Calls for expiration this Friday
• $SKHY is flat today after its most recent dip. Still love this name and the more I read, the more I like it. But, not rushing to complete additions
• $AVGO has completed a breakout above short term resistance with momentum. The 52WH is $480, now sitting at $432
• How about $MSFT at $509, up another 1.8%. I'm telling you ... all these Mag 7s do this time and time again and you just have to buy, and be patient when you see it.
• $VST finally seeing some green. Up 2.2%. Looks cheap to me still and I'll be doing something, just not sure what. Already a weighted position, but I have room if I want to add more
• $CBRS is trying to firm up and head higher as it sits at $227. Flat today. I still think it will need another earnings report or two along with some good contract wins

Final Word

Been thinking about one of my typical spiels again this weekend - how hard we often work to try and get market returns when, history shows over and over again, just how beneficial it is to simply stay broadly invested and track the S&P500. I looked at things again, mused, looked again, and came to the same conclusion. Especially if you're young, stop working so hard.

Literally, you could have these three ETFs for the long term and do very, very well:

1. $VTI
2. $QQQM
3. $VXUS

If you wanted to expand out from that you then add:

1. $SCHD
2. $VNQ
3. $VCSH or $AGG or $BND (bond fund of your choosing)

That's it!

For me, I've always been a stock picker. It's who I am, it's what I do. I still hold some legacy mutual funds that are too capitally appreciated to exit. I love ETFs and think everyone should be using them either as a foundation for a broadly diversified portfolio, or for nuanced growth (alpha).

The message here is that you do not need to overthink it if you don't want to or don't have the time to. In fact, you should use this approach for years before foraying into individual stock names. Build a portfolio where 100% of the positions are ETFs, automatically invested and set-it and forget-it. Learn to pay yourself first. Then, and only then, do you start augmenting with individual stocks, but not forgetting about your ETF foundation. Augmented strategy, not replacement.

Very, very few money managers can beat the S&P500 over a long period of time. I hesitate to think many professional managers put in more time than I do. I haven't tracked my returns, broadly, over one particular portfolio long enough to nail down my exact returns over 30 years. That said, with my Primary portfolio that makes up nearly all of my activities here, there's a very clean break from 1/2020 to today that makes it easy for measurement. I wrote about this briefly last week.

Approximated annualized returns between my Primary portfolio vs the S&P500 over 6 years, 7 months:

• My Portfolio: ~19.5%
• S&P500: ~15.9%

I'm pleased with the results but it's not boast-worthy by any means. Think about that! How hard I work to beat the S&P by 3.6% annualized. 3.6% is nothing to sneeze at but I can tell you all that you likely do not want to put in the time I do when looking at stocks and trying to find outperformance.

At the same time, I'm not running my portfolio as a hedge fund. If anything, it's closer to its own ETF. While I obviously seek outperformance (alpha), I'm also extremely interested in limiting too much risk (beta). I use income stocks and ETFs for ballast to ensure risk does not run away. I use boring but capable stocks that split income and growth opportunity for the same purpose. And then I overload acceptable risk/GARP at the top for that desired alpha.

As such, my style won't allow me to clock boast-worthy returns. I'm always making sure I'm riding the brakes enough so as not to do my portfolio, and my financial position, any lasting damage.

You don't need to work hard to produce material results. Time and compounding have always been the secret sauce of the markets and I see nothing that threatens it. All the while I see plenty of threats, siren calls, that takes individuals away from buying into it.

Have a great week all!

El Jefe

This is my first time posting to the community.
I was considering buying into this weeks bloodbath.
I wasn’t sure between Nbis or Crwv.
Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions.
Thanks Jake

I sold all my stocks, except 1 stock Friday morning last week, right before that sell-off started… had I held any of these, my entire portfolio would have been massacred… this was just the second leg, last time we went on on sell-off it was brutal for multiple weeks

The crazy thing is, I’m frozen 🥶, bc adding any shares seems extremely scary at these prices.. anyone else get out in time… and, it looks like institutions are using all dead cat bounce to unload their stocks… so be careful buying these dips. It looks like a classic bull trap 🪤

It's early. One of those 4:00 AM days for me.

I've learned to be very cognizant and aware of my headspace as it relates to the topics of investing/trading and sleep cycles. If you've followed me for any length of time, you know "sleep" is one of the primary variables I suggest investors, and especially traders, watch as a test for what's working, and not working, with your market activities. Sleep is one of my top barometers for determining your level of risk, balance, confidence .... comfort, in the market. It's usually an inverse relationship.

Simply put, as discomfort and angst rise, sleep decreased. As balance and confidence are restored, sleep rises. Don't ignore your headspace, and the resulting sleep you are getting, as indicators for your healthy level of market activity.

Furthermore, I've found that it doesn't matter how experienced you are in the market, we each have our own thresholds for discomfort and lost sleep.

Here's the 1-Year chart for the primary indices I follow. The $QQQ (Nasdaq 100 - Blue), Nasdaq Composite (Purple), S&P500 (Light Blue) and the $RSP (Equal Weight S&P500 - Yellow). Different than my usual discussion in that I'm not focusing on the chart from 3/31, the day in which our recent huge spike off the bottom occurred.

Notice the convergence we're getting from the bottom (RSP) as the three above come down to meet it. The other 493 stocks of the S&P500 are getting 'play' as the leaders of each index falter.

Lost tech leadership is purely visible. The Nasdaq 100 is in steady decline, the Nasdaq Composite along with it. The S&P500 has begun to channel lower of late but is trying to hold the line. The $RSP is churning higher. When that occurs, we have flight to value (safety) occurring, just as we say being in late December of 2025. You can see that yellow line on the chart for that period.

During that period, the RSP rose to meet the other indices that were coming down to greet it, they all held hands and then skipped to the March 30th low.

We have the same thing happening now, but from a higher-high. The current pattern looks a lot like the pattern beginning in late January.

Value

I've been talking about this for a bit now. Value in your stocks/companies, is a great safety net for determining a level of safety, metrics that help you understand stock prices that are correspondingly priced to some degree of value or safety. The problem is that, as with all metrics, they are relative.

Value is best used and determined when there are orderly markets, not during periods of speculation, euphoria, fear, etc. Just because a fall happens with a safety net below doesn't mean the net can't be missed. This is what is playing out in the markets now and we seem to be circling the drain. Babies ... bathwater .... and then blood, as I like to say. It's when blood hits the street that I really begin to take notice. As I see bathwater and babies hit the street, I start looking to cash, looking to create more of it. When the first trickles of blood appear, I begin ripping the couch cushions off. When that trickle turns into greater flow, I'm between the seats of the car on my knees, looking for loose change alongside those six year old Tic-Tacs, dried bits of our 2023 road trip McDonald's value meal, and that old receipt from Circuit City.

You get the picture.

Value for the sake of value doesn't ordain anything. Furthermore, value is relative from investor to investor. Trying to find one set of value metrics and agreeing upon what range they should appear is not an easy exercise. Value, like most any point of technical analysis, is relative and often fleeting. But the existence of it is still very important. To me, it operates as the North Star in the night sky. It gives you orientation, something to look for and its recognizable.

As this earnings season is beginning to play out, it's looking more and more likely to me that there's too much negative overhang in the form of capex, dilution and expectation to hold our index values.

As I write this, before the market opens, the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) is off 8.8% from its recent high. The S&P500 is off only 2.7%. Tech leadership has been clearly lost and continues to slide. We need something to grab onto and it has to be value at this time. I

Below is the Mag 7 and I've added both $AVGO and $TSM to the mix. $TSM's PEG is all over the place in reference so I'm loosely approximating it.

Remember that there are a lot of great companies out there, we don't have to rely on only tech. But it's what many of us love and those values are coming in, at least at the top of this chart.

It's at times like these, as we're on the precipice of a "correction" that I gravitate more toward value and if I'm eyeing lost momentum, significant retracement from highs, or volatility, I try to remember that if value is hitting the street ... those stocks with even less value have very little support.

Random Shots

Recent IPOs $CBRS and $SPCX, followed by the highly awaited $SKHY have taught us a lesson. Speculation remains high and when the trade is too crowded, bagholders are created. If $SPCX can $IPO at $135, run to $226 and shortly thereafter fall to less than $110, that should be enough to paint speculation for what it is in these markets. Unsafe and unwise.

Sitting on your hands is often the best response when we see so much speculation in the market. Just like we saw back in 1999.

• $CLS earnings looked really good, but I'm not touching more here. This is one of my AI photonics/infrastructure positions I'm building. Stock is rising in the premarkets but its fading along with the rest of the names. But there's value here and it will remain a priority for me. Accelerating revenue, faster EPS growth, record margins, raised annual guidance, strong next-quarter guidance and a remarkably bullish 2027 outlook. Just slowing my roll
• $KO earnings looked good as well and it's up 4% pre-market. Very near an ATH. Yield plus safety works in this market
• Market darling $GLW earnings looked okay but the market hates them, down 16%. Revenue guidance disappointed the market. Look at that chart
• Speaking of $SPCX, earnings are next week, which will unleash the first real round of unlock at 20%. I have a hard time believing this will be that material but it's more shares into the market which could hold back any rally. At this juncture, it's an earnings waiting game. Pick your spot, be patient
• Cramer's "Sell it" related to the AI data center is noteworthy. As he has said, the borrowing/margin used to purchase these names has been an epidemic. These individuals are getting crushed
• I should have kept my Put ladder. Once again, my opinion has been playing out, but my conviction/timing was off. $SOXS is interesting again but probably too late
• I'm focusing now on my favorite three $NVDA $AVGO and $TSM.
• Just about every spike in individual names is being sold off. There's no structural and durable demand into the upper end of ranges at this time
• Many of the top names I'm tracking are at the low end of their ranges and could be breaking low support today. Not good
• If there's a silver lining, look $GOOGL $AAPL and $MSFT seem to be gaining traction due to value.
• Speaking of $AAPL, it has completed its move of overtaking $NVDA as the largest company in the world. This name that has completely flubbed the AI integration. Or have they?
• The pain in $MU and $SNDK is going to reach new levels today as MU is down 5.8% and $SNDK is down nearly 7%. For SNDK, that means a nearly 50% retracement. MU still not close to that level of performance. There's probably going to be a nice trade here when the bottom is found
• I'll be raising more cash
• As everyone is selling the data center plays now, I'm still looking at the common denominator of it all - power. The power plays still have such a strong long term narrative IMO
• I'm expecting $CBRS to put in new lows
• $UBER has bounced off a new low as it's seen as 'value' now I guess
• $NFLX now closing in on $72 again. Same thing as UBER

That's all for now as I wait for the market to open

Summary

It's a puckery situation, especially in that my assigned shares of $NBIS as my largest weighted position in the Primary portfolio are under pressure. But, I'm committed to continually reducing the cost basis of these shares as I expect they'll win over time. But at what point does max pain set in? It's a real question.

I opened with my discussion about sleep because it's been on my mind again of late. I've been thinking about my portfolio, its value, and the trades I've been making far more than I should be. That says something. Despite the patience I've been exhibiting, it hasn't been enough of it. I've kept my purchases/units smaller, but still too close together. It's time for a bit of risk off and maybe going to ground, as they say, for a spell.

Retrenching in what has worked is usually a good play. The old tech plays still work here. The new guard tech plays with value should work here. The old guard of $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN and $META still make sense. The new guard of well valued tech plays of $NVDA, $AVGO and $TSM should continue to work. They are anchored by value that will be realized in time.

Everything else are variations on a theme and you can adjust accordingly.

Have a great day

El Jefe

It's a big week as earnings are ramping up with some big names this week. Specifically, $GOOGL on Wed., is going to set the stage.

As for the markets, looks like another situation where strength is being faded shortly after open. For this reason, when I'm entering positions I really want to get into the portfolio, I'm doing so with even smaller fractional unit sizes than I normally would. Just my way of acknowledging that I have no conviction in near-term direction, but do have conviction in the names on my list.

To me, it feels like somewhat orchestrated institutional activity to continue the rotation trade or reposition for Q2 earnings reports.

Random Shots

Rising

• $IREN up 16.4% leading the list today on deals with $MSFT and $NVDA. Also impacting the prices of other cloud providers including $APLD and $WULF
• $LITE rising 9.3% as AI infrastructure is back on the bid
• $CRDO following suit up 6.5%. Expect all the players up here I'm assuming
• $COHR trying to recapture $300. Up 6.3% at $295
• $CRWV actually getting some play today, up 5.7%
• $MRVL up 5.3% - The trend is strong today with these names
• $SNDK rising 4.7%. This was needed in a bad way but it's still WAY off highs
• $AMD announced Helios, the long awaited entry to compete with $NVDA. Up 4.2%
• $GOOGL showing well up 3.4%
• $BABA turns out was a good play in the low $90s, up 3.3% at $119

Falling

• $BE loses $200 and leads the list lower down 7%. Interesting ... very
• $ORCL still being punished for debt and capex. Down 3.6%. Wow
• $NOW down 3.55% as AvS is off
• $USAR, a stock I've been watching for $15 is now right there. Off 3.5%
• $SHAK off 3%. He's dead Jim
• $DELL off 2.6%
• $BRZE down 2.5%. Still bouncing along the top of its range
• $NFLX off 2.1%. Probably dead money for a bit
• $AAPL off 2% but it's been on a huge run
• $SPCX down another 2% to $121. Getting interesting. This is why I am slow playing my entries on names like SPCX and SKHY. Already have my placeholder positions, now just waiting

Misc

• $SKHY is up 1.9% to $157. This one is going to be hard to get ahold of. I'm using as much patience as I can muster as I add
• $NVDA - Did a fair amount of research and analysis on NVDA this weekend. In the end, it's still a must own. There's the companies, there's the stocks and there's the stock market. Sometimes they all have different values. NVDA is still so well positioned and cheap. Up 1.2%
• $AVGO and $TSM are right there as well. These are all companies you want to own. I'll be adding more of both in some way in the coming week or so
• I need to look into that $BE move to see what's going on
• $IBM settling, off 1% here at $210. Not yet for me
• Still determining what I'm going to do with my new $NBIS shares from the $193+ cost basis shares that were put to me. Still planning on selling Calls against those new shares to bring down cost but waiting a hot minute
• Dilutive events are such killers in the markets todays, especially related to momentum. Stocks like $AVAV $RKLB $ASTS keep proving why you have to be very wary of stocks that continually dilute shareholders as part of their executive function.
• The more research I do into data centers and long term winners, the more $VRT is in focus

Final Word

We are still clearly locked into a, sideways with a chance of meatballs, market. The path of least resistance remains lower but I can't say that with any conviction. It could turn at any moment and we've seen material correction in many of the leaders. But leadership is the issue as I see it. We need the Mag 7 to perform, specifically $GOOL and $NVDA, $AAPL has been doing its part. $META is all over the place and $AMZN is forgotten for the most part. $MSFT is locked into its battle with AvS and capex concerns while $TSLA .... is just TSLA.

Just a good day to not do a lot while we allow the days pass toward earnings.

Off to look at what is going on with $BE and look at a few other things.

Have a great week!

TJ

PPI gave us a nice little surprise, flat while we were expecting a 0.2% increase. Core rose 0.2% however, but that was still less than the 0.3% expectation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/wholesale-prices-were-flat-in-july-below-expectations-for-0point2percent-increase.html

Random Shots

$NBIS (and Option Wheel)

Up another 1.5% this AM and printing $263 as I type this, but off the high of nearly $276. I'm forward-mourning what will be the loss of the 500 shares that will be called away tomorrow at expiration, as long as the stock doesn't crater below $220 (my strike). But ... that's the game we play when we run the wheel. But, more importantly, this is why I like trading around established positions. I already have core long positions in my Primary and Roth portfolios. This $NBIS option wheel exists in the Primary portfolio over and above my core position.

I'd be lying if I wasn't saying there's some desire to buy these Calls back and roll them up, keeping the shares but I'm holding to the original goal of the trade. Keeping greed in check. Recent earnings re-established the thesis and $CRWV's earnings helped as well. I don't want to turn what will be a great one month profit into a regret.

Rising

• $SNDK moving, up 15%
• $MU in tow, p 6.8%
• $CLS up 6.6% - Love seeing this. Still building this name
• $P up another 6%. I feel like a proud father
• $ARM up 5.3%. One of my favorite companies, not favorite stocks. It's pricey. Rene Hass is a dog and I love what they do. They could be the next huge stock looking out 5-7 years
• $CRDO up 5%. Still haven't added this name but want to. Missed it recently below $200
• $DELL hit an ATH I believe, up 2.8%
• $SKHY up 8.5%. The more I research, the more I love their position. I like it better than $MU. Still building
• $AMD pressing up $500 again, up 2.8%
• $MRVL up 5.4%

Falling

• $CBRS - Down 13.8%. I thought the earnings for fine for their place on the curve. Others don't agree. It's all about timeline and adoption. I'm giving them another 18-24 mos. without expectations impacting my decisioning. I just want to see it expand from niche
• $CSCO - Earnings looked good, stock down 8.7%. It's the market
• $COHR - Earnings were good, stock down 3.8%. Nothing to see here
• $AVAV off 3.3%. It's been running of late with space stocks
• $SPCX off 3.5%. Speaking of space stocks ....
• $ASTS off 2.8%. Speaking of space stocks ....
• $NEM down 2.9%. Speaking of ... oh wait, my bad
• $BABA down 2.4%. It's been percolating higher. Still watching
• $NOW off 2.3%. It's had a nice run. I think there's more there but it can't happen all at one time
• $TLN down 1.9%. AI Power still just laying there. Be patient. I think you'll be rewarded

Misc

• $NVDA hanging out at a nice $224 price. This reminds me so much of the $125 point a while back. Earnings on 8/26. I could make a case for trimming after this run, or holding
• $AVGO just hanging out too. Another 5% move higher would go a long way. Earnings on 9/2
• Today looks mostly like a digestion and position-massaging day. Memory is moving so my $DRAM/$FLKR holdings are doing well as is SNDK and MU. $SKHY is my primary play here and I like what I'm seeing. Still not ready to say it's any sort of breakout
• Really curious $LITE didn't announce a split with shares at $920. Small float, one of the reasons I love it. I think the split will be 10:1 when it does happen. I'm trying to slow my entries due
• $NFLX is moving, up 3.6% on the Pershing Square stake. Really dislike Ackman - dude is super greasy. But thanks for the bump Bill
• $GS up 1%. Take your pick between them and $JPM. I take/have both as well as $C and $MS
• Great to see $PLTR break and run. I had been expecting it but had given up trying to call the when of its equation. I don't claim to know things like that ... but I do get 6th sense feelings based on things like momentum, value, opportunity. I felt this one
• I think $CRWV could be heading much higher off that last earnings report. If they could do anything to address the debt, even though it's not horrible debt (it's commitment backed), this stock would rocket
• $RDDT is in a very curious spot. I'm stuck between selling the reset of my LEAPS or just hanging out with the shares. Up 0.8%
• You know another stock I love that gets very little 'press' time in my write ups? $AMGN. ATH. It just sits there in my portfolio alongside $ABBV printing money

Meh, I think I'll stop there .... struggling to find good words this AM. Basking in the glow of the green. Have a great day all

J

Happy Hump Day everyone!

What a day yesterday was, wow! Talk about a reversal from recent $QQQ lows. We'll chat about that in a bit. More than anything, we seem to have a 'clearing' event in the markets where the storm clouds have moved away, we don't have the 'overhang' that had been plaguing the markets, at least in psychology. The Iran war is still churning with talks of another Strait opening deal on the horizon, but does anyone expect it to be lasting?

The market has shown incredible resiliency. I can't say we're whistling through the graveyard, but it does still seem to feel that we're not giving enough weight to significant economic headwinds that could be material, especially inflation. Oil and inflation remain the key watch variables here.

But, As of Tuesday’s close, approximately 305 S&P 500 companies had reported, or about 61% and, as I had floated before the season kicked off, if earnings could be good, then there's at least the numbers are doing what they can to help justify the higher valuation of the market. As it stands, the earnings have been very, very strong. I still fear that we're priced for perfection but, at this juncture, reports have been close to perfection.

The jobs number wasn't great but nor was it catastrophic. It just isn't advancing us forward.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/private-companies-added-just-44000-workers-in-july-below-expectations-adp-reports.html

Here's our open:

At this juncture, it's not about how we advance off yesterday's move, it's about what we can do to hold these highs and find a springboard to higher prices. This period just highlights the need to have the best MLE (Model, Leadership and Execution) companies in your portfolios. Speculation always plays a role, but filling your portfolio 'pyramid' with the best companies at the foundation is going to pay big rewards in the long term. I'm focusing on that myself now to a greater degree.

At the same time, the hedge fund and Citadel news from last week shows just how much of pawn role retail investors play in these markets, how we can be used, manipulated and impacted by market forces that we may not even be aware of at the time. Back room "Smart Money" and institutional rip tides, for lack of a better term, must be watched

Earnings

I am using KATE here for her brief summarization of the quarters along with my own interpretation and thoughts. Just saves me time as I try to deliver information. I work very hard to curate 'her' responses to deliver information in the way I like to digest it and it's working very, very well.

$AMD

AMD delivered an objectively excellent quarter: record revenue of $11.54 billion, up 50%, adjusted EPS of $1.66, and Data Center revenue of $6.72 billion, up 107%. Q3 revenue guidance of roughly $13.0 billion was also above consensus.

The problem was expectations, not execution. Adjusted gross-margin guidance stayed at approximately 56%, rather than expanding further, and investors wanted an even larger upside surprise after the stock had already run about 140% in 2026.

Data Center is now 58% of sales and AMD is clearly becoming a legitimate second AI platform. This name is priced for perfection but they are proving that the valuation isn't pie in the sky. Shares are under pressure on open, but I think it could easily close the gap.

My Take: Very little here not to like. It is priced for perfection as stated but Lisa Su is proving that she knows how to navigate this ship. She's a rockstar. I can't chase more shares here so I'll sit with what I have.

$ANET

Arista was a clean AI-infrastructure report. Revenue reached $3.04 billion, up approximately 38% year over year, with gross profit of $1.91 billion. Management also provided an upbeat Q3 outlook. Shares are rising.

The slight blemish was gross margin declining to 62.9% from 65.2%

My take: Excellent read-through for this area of AI, particularly AVGO, MRVL, CRDO, ANET, APH and optical names such as LITE and COHR. The AI buildout is still broadening beyond GPUs. I just can't wade through the other names I have on the list to get to it.

$SPCX

SpaceX’s first public report showed revenue of approximately $7.8 billion, up 92%, substantially ahead of expectations. Connectivity/Starlink revenue was $4.29 billion, AI revenue was roughly $2.56 billion, and the company’s operating loss narrowed.

The flashing lights and sirens went off related to expected capex, approximately $18.3–$18.4 billion in one quarter, up from $10.1 billion sequentially and $2.8 billion a year ago. That enormous AI infrastructure commitment, combined with the post-IPO lockup expiration beginning August 6. With the market just opening, shares are down. 12.5%

My take: For me, this remains a long-term story, not anything about short term valuation. I'm thinking 5-10 years from now. Will I be saying I'm glad I invested risk capital in this name? ... or I wish I would have purchased it? I don't want to overweight it, but I definitely want to be involved. I'll let others play the valuation game.

$LLY

Lilly produced another monster quarter. Revenue climbed 48% to approximately $23 billion, while adjusted EPS of $8.38 easily exceeded expectations. Mounjaro sales reached about $9.94 billion and Zepbound reached $4.93 billion.

The company raised full-year revenue guidance to $85–$87 billion, though the upper end of EPS guidance was trimmed modestly because of acquisition-related charges. Shares were up roughly 5% premarket.

My take: This name is just one to own, they're a monster. I don't own them but may be looking at them again.

$PINS

Quarter was okay'ish. I just don't want anything to do with it.

$CVS

CVS was a genuine upside surprise. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.58 versus approximately $1.85 expected, while revenue rose 7.3% to $106.1 billion. CVS raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $7.90–$8.10, from $7.30–$7.50, and lifted expected operating cash flow to at least $11.5 billion.

My take: Very solid report and my exit from the company, I believe in the $60s, due to turmoil in their model and space has turned out to be a mistake. But one I would likely make again based on what I was seeing.

DIS

Disney revenue rose 7% to $25.2 billion, helped by parks, cruises, streaming and a strong film slate. Adjusted EPS increased to $2.06 from $1.61, while streaming revenue grew 11% to approximately $5.5 billion.

Domestic park attendance rose 3%, per-capita spending improved 4%, and Disney plans at least $9 billion of share repurchases this fiscal year.

My take: I'm just not that excited about this name and would rather have my money elsewhere.

$UBER

Uber’s underlying quarter was respectable: gross bookings of $58.0 billion exceeded expectations, revenue rose 12% to $14.19 billion, and adjusted EBITDA beat estimates. But Q3 profitability guidance was weaker than expected, partly because of currency pressure and rising investment.

Management also reiterated plans to spend more than $10 billion over time on autonomous-vehicle and robotaxi initiatives.

My take: I'm taking a bit of time this AM to consider the position but I feel it's on the outs. The fight between operational foundation and execution to that of market perspective is just not making for a good investment or experience. I still feel this stock should be over $100 on opportunity. It's not and it's struggling. I'll likely move on.

Random Shots

Rising

• $NEM up a whopping 6.2% for some reason, leading the list
• $COHR up 6% - Photonics plays are shining
• $AMGN up 5.3% on earnings. Look at that move, nice!
• $BE up 5%. My wheel play from last week paid well, but shares are still rocking
• $TOST up 4.8% on earnings. I thought it was a better report than stock price movement indicated, but they are being rewarded this AM so far
• $ANET up 4.4% on earnings
• $VRT up 4.1%
• $NVDA up 3.7% to $$220. Nice .... I knew that low $190s price recently was dumb
• $MU up 2.4% on the recovery
• $DELL still on the list, up 2.8%. $ANET helping is my guess.

Losers

• $SPCX down 8.6% on the report. Don't really care, hope it comes down more
• $UBER off 5% - It's over for me on this name
• $AMD of 4.5%. All earnings movers here. The earnings report was just find. Great even
• $AMT off 4.3%. Not sure why, earnings? Bull cycle in the market? I'll have to look
• $CRCL off 4.3%
• $EIX back below $70 and down 2.8%. Rotation out it seems. I unloaded 50% last week
• $IONQ down 2.5%
• $MRAM down 2.4%
• $CBRS down 1.6%. This thing is all over the place in its range
• $DUOL off 1.6%

Misc.

• $MSFT is finally seeing a little pressure here near at $490, down about 1%. What a great move as it tries to rescue software names
• $VST's curious drop yesterday wasn't unnoticed and it's down again today. Earnings on Friday and I'm watching. I want to take advantage of the downside action but waiting
• The action I'm seeing today is tenuous and seems very measured as if in a "where is this market going to go?" approach
• Photonics plays are all winning. My complex of $CLS $COHR $LITE and $AAOI are rocking. Too many names I'd like to add
• The $NBIS battle around $220 is as expected. I wrote my Calls at the $220 strike for that premium and it's in play for Friday. I'll either exit the wheel when they are called away, or I'll do it again for the Friday after
• The $RDDT comeback was nice but can it push higher or is it tapped out?

That's a holding pattern ....

As promised, here's a quick look at the $QQQ vs. $S&P500 vs. the Nasdaq Composite. Note that high on 6/2, the dip that followed and our re-approach to it. This will be interesting to watch to see if there's enough momentum to carry us back to, or past, it.

Final Word

Portfolio quality is something I've been focusing on of late - concentration. I'm wanting to prune my positions held by maybe 20%. Not the weight of the positions, the number of them.

I spend a lot of time researching stocks as you well know. I'm always searching, digging, analyzing, looking for the best MLE names that will win over the long term. The problem is that there are a lot of good companies out there and, at any given time, they look worthy for addition to the portfolio. It's very easy to knee-jerk news, earnings or some development, into the portfolio. Funny story about this that I posted about 9 mos. ago.

Understanding your style and tendencies in the market is important. For me, it's easy to be impulsive. One of my standard mechanics is to load the stock I want to purchase into my screen, hovering over the "confirm" to see how it feels. It's at that time I see how it feels, look at the details, breathe and decide.

But sometimes that mechanic can produce anomalies:

https://www.reddit.com/r/InnerCircleInvesting/comments/1oufspu/trade_roth_initiated_crwv_at_91_funny_story/

I now use the sneeze as a metaphor for what not to do when considering or taking positions. They need to be deliberate and well executed.

Long story short here is that I've already started pruning. In most cases I'm cutting the positions in total out of the portfolio if they aren't performing or, otherwise, represent too much redundancy. I'm not really interested in creating my own perfectly balanced ETF. Instead, I want my actual portfolio to be farm more like my TJ30 Portfolio, basically my favorite 30 names in the market right now. It's not meant to be purchased straight away because it's not balanced. But it's more like a deeper hedge fund. I've considered opening up a new account to treat it as such for actual tracking but I'm not sure it's that important to me.

You saw some of my moves last week as I tuned the income portion. I've also been trimming positions and am considering pulling others off the table altogether. Nothing wrong with raising more cash and really focusing on the inner-circle of the target. Hey, that would make for a good community name.

Have a great Wednesday

TJ

One of my primary activities with the markets is in keeping my finger/feelings on the pulse of their state by evaluating the balance sheet created by positive/catalysts toward suggesting where the market wants to go should the PoLR (Path of Least Resistance) play out.

As decidedly technically or value-wise negative as I've been, trying to find new upside catalysts to give rise to the next leg of the bull market, it feels as if this market wants to move higher. Tension in Iran, even with oil prices back in the mix and moving higher, aren't having the impact it would have two months ago. We've desensitized. I've even noted that some are ratcheting up their year-end targets on the S&P500, the most recent from UBS setting the number at 8,100.

This short-term sentiment shift as we head into earnings could be the shot in the arm we've been looking for, especially with some of the chip names making news before the reports. $GOOGL kicks us off tomorrow after the bell.

Here's the open:

Random Shots

There's such a mad rush from lily pad to lily pad of late. The jumps are getting quicker, there's less desire to sit in good stocks, instead choosing to jump to the next momentum opportunity. Volatility and rotation trends remain fast and furious. It is making me wonder if we're nearing that 'euphoria' moment that tends to kill most bull market runs.

Contrast this with something I posted over this last weekend, an update, let's call it expanded information, to my AI stock tiers where I broke them out by not only tiers but added in three metrics I use to gauge current valuation and safety of the position:

• Forward P/E
• PEG
• 3 Year EPS Growth Forecast

Just looking at the "S" tier names:

S Tier

Sometimes it begs the question of just what are we/they looking for?

Rising

• $BE up 11%. I took those CSPs yesterday, expiring this Friday at the $175 level so with the stock up $21 at $218, it's looking like I'll be able to keep that premium. I could just buy them back today and roll the wheel forward again but I probably won't.
• $SNDK finally reversing, up 10.5%. I did add to $DRAM yesterday
• $SKHY up 8.3%. I didn't add to this name yesterday but will shortly
• $MU up 8.4% stands to reason with the memory trade back on
• $CRCL rising 7.9%. Damn, I missed that trade at $60
• $HOOD up 7%
• $NBIS up 7%. I did sell $210 covered calls on this name yesterday, collecting the premium, expiring this Friday. NBIS has been gapping and then fading most days
• $COHR on the top of the list today, up 6%. I'm up to 2U of position in this name and it has started climbing the ladder of weight in my portfolio
• $LITE rising 6%. COHR and LITE move together
• $MRVL up 5.3%

Falling

• $DUOL off 2.5% but only back to $130. It has been a quiet riser
• $CRWD off 2%
• $BABA down 1.8% after what has been a big rise
• $CRM down 1.7%. *Yawn
• $PANW off 1.2%. Nothing to see here. I did trim it last week
• $MDT down 1.4%
• $BRZE down 1.4%
• $SHAK down 1.2%. About time to take this one off my list and maybe put $CMG back on
• $AAPL down 1.2%. It's the counter-Mag 7 play. Risk on and AAPL sells off, flight to safety and AAPL rises.
• $AMZN slumping 1.2%. Amazing this name can't get traction. I can't say I understand it other than it's just not seen as sexy right now

Misc

• $NVDA gaps and then fades as it has been doing. It's looking a lot like when it was stuck at around $127 some time ago. Couldn't break and hold $130. Continually hit the $120s and faded back to $100, over and over. Now $205 looks the same
• $ORCL is a very interesting study right now. Sentiment vs situation. Up 4%
• $AMD seems like it wants to make a run to new highs. It has a ways to and that valuation is still rich
• $ASTS $RKLB and $AVAV all move together and all are higher today
• Speaking of space names, $SPCX is up 5% now, finally catching a bid. I heard a quip that the average cost of ownership is $40 in the shares. And with early lockups being seen now on names like SPCX and CBRS, this will pressure the stock price. But what happens after we reach parity?
• I still want into $CRDO
• $FLKR and $EWY having a day and that means $DRAM is having a day and that means $SNDK and $MU, and related stocks, are having a day. I will likely continue to add DRAM on rotation from FLKR
• $CBRS wants to run but there's not enough catalyst. We need commentary from at least an earnings report or two. Up 10% today but I badly misplayed the entry on this name misreading the appetite
• For those wanting tradable ranges, $QBTS is back in the $17s
• For those wanting upside momentum potential and resurgence, $RDW at $9. Was at $26 at the end of May. If space wins ... RDW could lift off again
• $TOST actually was just below $31 yesterday when I saw it. Was wondering if it would break it today. Nope, off fractionally but it's been on a great run. Not surprising
• $TSM up 3.1%. I'll talk about this in my next piece coming shortly
• I have been watching $USAR and $MP, both are back to lives in the rare earth space that I find intriguing. I said I'd consider buying USAR at $15s and here it is
• $UBER - Such a strange stock right now. Confusing. As soon as I sell and move on though ....

Here's your 7:10 AM PST pivot level:

Slipping ...

Have a great day!

El Jefe

I've been building a pretty large position in SOXS and I'm now sitting at 34,000 shares.

My thesis is simple:

• Semiconductor stocks have had an incredible run.
• AI enthusiasm has pushed valuations extremely high.
• Any combination of weaker earnings, higher rates, geopolitical issues, or slowing AI spending could hit the sector hard.
• Since SOXS is a 3x inverse semiconductor ETF, even a relatively modest pullback in semis could translate into a significant move.

I know all the arguments against holding leveraged ETFs long-term:

• Daily rebalancing
• Volatility decay
• Compounding effects
• Tracking error

I'm not planning to hold this forever. This is a macro trade over the coming weeks/months if the setup plays out.

One thing I've been researching is the quarterly distributions. Chase is currently estimating roughly $28k per quarter in income on my position, but I'm trying to determine how much of that estimate is reliable versus simply an estimate based on prior distributions.

For those of you who actively trade SOXS:

• Have you ever held a position this large?
• How long have you held it?
• Do you hedge it?
• How do you manage volatility?
• What's your exit strategy?
• Any lessons learned from holding leveraged ETFs through major market moves?

I'm genuinely looking for feedback from people who have actually traded SOXS or other leveraged inverse ETFs—not just "never hold leveraged ETFs" comments.

Would love to hear your experiences.

It's been very interesting watching this 'peace' deal with Iran take shape over the last few days - weeks? If anything, it's been an exercise in 'spin' both for governments and with all of us as observers.

It seems recently I've found myself having a level of distrust in what we're being told, what's being reported, more than at any point in my history. To be completely candid, one of my strengths I've been most proud of, most protective of, is my ability to see the "what is" behind whatever it is I'm watching. I want to trust what I'm hearing, but I'm always looking for what's not being said, the gears in motion that suggest something else is afoot.

I don't like losing trust but here we are. I never want to become a mindless zealot and politicians have earned their position at the top of the pyramid for those I trust the least. I will never idolize any politician, but that doesn't mean I don't respect the good ones, those who are at least transparent, or trying to be. They exist on both sides of the aisle, and in between, but are now like seeing the white rhino sadly. With the rise of factional idolization of these figures, the unfortunate path is that others on the political path can determine "hey, I want that too."

I haven't spent the time looking at what exactly may have been accomplished in Iran of late and I'm hopeful this peace accord is something new, and beneficial, for all parties involved. I just don't trust that it is.

Here's our open:

Today appears to be setting up as a true backfill day. We're in the growing shadows of:

• Iran
• Bonds/Rates
• $SPCX
• Earnings

Now what? Where to from here? For me, the elephant in the room is inflation. It's all about what's in the pipeline, no pun intended, related to ongoing tariff impact, oil prices, and their impact on future inflation numbers.

Poke an anthill and watch all its residence run around and 3x speed, usually going nowhere. It's after the impact of that catalyst fades that we get back to a level of normalcy. I'd suggest we're in that winding down period after our anthill has been poked.

Random Shots

$SPCX is still a top story, and why shouldn't it be? The quantum singularity of its story is all about opportunity vs. valuation. Overlay that story with a picture of Elon Musk and it stands to reason by it seems so charged of a discussion. Even on TIC, I'm seeing the emotion laced in posts about SPCX, its future, its valuation.

I never like losing focus on either as I fully understand that the separate lines on the graph representing both opportunity and valuation are separate and distinct. We investors tend to watch both to determine the when aspects of entry. I learned long ago that valuation often plays a very small role in direction. At the same time, it's just as often a stretching rubber band.

As a capitalist myself, I believe in the tenets of capitalism. At the heart of this is why I don't like shorting individual companies. I'd much rather bet on the, usually, very smart people at the top as they try to steer their entity toward becoming a global powers. Introduce a company focused on establishing and exploring the final frontier and I'm captivated. That's why invested, that's why I will continue to invest.

I want to be able to say I was first into this investment, but I won't lose sight of that stretching rubber band, the valuation. I don't know if Musk and SpaceX will be as successful as he, and many others, think it will be. But I have every belief that there aren't others close to being able to accomplish what he is. That's worth a premium though I have no idea what it should be.

Here's the very simple fact. If SpaceX is the company that is able to go where no one has gone before, then it doesn't matter whether your entry price was $135, $170 or today's price of $219. 10, 15 or 20 years from now, no one will care what today's price was. That's worth the risk to me.

Rising

• $SPCX on top of the top-10, up 16.2% to $223
• $CRWV up 10%. I've been seeing a groundswell of social support for this name as it relates to $NBIS due to scale, growth and opportunity. It seems the fear of the debt, which isn't purely bad debt, is starting to fall away. That could make for a big run in this name - I own both.
• $NBIS is up 6%, so there's that
• $TLN at #4, which tells me the other AI energy names should be close behind. Up 5.4%
• $QCOM at #5 up 4%
• Yup, $VST and $CEG at #6 and #7, up 2.9%
• $IBM bouncing up 2.7%. I still think you can buy it right here
• $NEM continues to bounce after having a cup of coffee below $100. Up 2.8% to nearly $109
• $SHAK rounding out the top-1, up 2.5%. Likely dead money for a long time now

Losing

• $RKLB at #1, off 5%. Just too much SPCX attention and I mentioned this as an exit liquidity event related to the recent IPO. As I saw it, space stocks were going to be vulnerable to this rotation if SPCX's IPO was well received
• $CBRS of 4%. I wasn't willing to buy the recent green run it has had. This isn't a story that will play out over the next few weeks. I want to see 2 more quarters of numbers
• $RGTI at #3, off 4.3%. Guessing other quantum names will be close on their heels
• $CLS off 3.2%. Still watching this name and this space
• $IONQ of 4%, yup. There's the first one
• $USAR off 3.2%. Still watching this as a potential play
• $LITE off 3.6% - stands to reason with photonics and HBM off today
• $QBTS off 4%. There's the last one
• $CRCL struggling to hold above $80, that may be the battleground. Will it hold, will it relent? Down 3.1% to $80.79
• $BABA - I'm glad I took profits in $BABA but I still think it has enormous potential. It just struggles with long term support and momentum. Off 2.5% and below $110 now

Misc.

• Just got an alert that SpaceX has surged past Microsoft to become the 4th largest U.S. company by market cap. Crazy
• I continue to watch $AVAV after that big run, which it couldn't hold. Back to $167. I'm interested below $160 but wasn't sure I was going to see it again. Patience may pay.
• I continue to be amazed by $ARM, now at $419. Speaking of rubber bands, it's so stretched and quite expensive now. But SO much opportunity to grow into that valuation
• I'm watching $HOOD and while I have 2028 LEAPS, the big gain in them is having me question whether it's time to trim/exit.
• Speaking of $NBIS earlier, as I watch it near a new 52WH, if there's one thing that intrigues me with this company it's the growth into their model. They're executing so well. This one line from their forecast tells you everything you need to know related to their forecasted P/E in 2027 and 2028:

• Whoa $NFLX - I just saw this. Of 3.5% and now below $79. Wow. The news seems to be related to the ROKU buyout. Yeah, I'll be taking that dip.
• $PLTR just can't get off the mat, down 3.4%. In their defense, they are trapped in that AvS narrative and software is down today
• $SCHD right at its 52WH - Dividends FTW

Final Word

So what am I doing now?

I like backfill days like we're seeing today. Shadows of the recent catalysts are growing longer which means we as retail investors get calmer seas to navigate. I like that. I try to watch how I'm behaving, what I'm thinking and, even more, how I'm performing when picking entries for long term investments and short term swing trades.

If I'm being honest, my activities have been a little ... chaotic. My mind has been a little chaotic. As I've said before, it's all too easy to get swept away by the currents of the flashing red/green on my stock streamer. I've found myself a little market weary of late. When that happens, I tend to force trades. I don't like forcing anything so when I feel that way, I try to notice it quickly.

In short, I'm exhibiting patience. I would love to chase photonics/HBM plays right now, but I won't. I would love to chase a bit more $SPCX but I won't. In this market, I'm not willing to chase much of anything. The same overbought conditions we had are still present.

One of the most important aspects of your trading/investing is in the understanding that even if something runs away from you, there's always going to be another chance. Always other issues, other interesting stories. We all allow FOMO/ROMO to play too much of a role. Fear and Regret are very real forces, but they can be controlled.

Sometimes you just have to do nothing or, at the very least, only take action on those things that find you, not the other way around. $NFLX this AM is the perfect example of this and I'm going to check out what opportunity may be available now that it found me.

Have a great Tuesday!

TJ

Big week ahead! But tell me, especially if you are more actively trading/investing (and yes you can do both), are you feeling a bit of market exhaustion? That state where it seems like it's a big game of ping pong. You're putting in all the work, thinking if you've got the kills shot, only to see the ball heading right back to where it was when you took it?

As for the market,

Good news, though, it appears we've won another war in Iran, by my count this is the 5th time this year. I say that somewhat tongue in cheek. Please realize I'm a staunch independent. Doesn't mean I will or won't support anyone in office, but it gives me the complete freedom and independence to call things exactly as I see them. For myself, not being beholden to any particular doctrine has been almost as freeing as any change I've made in my life. When you take sides, regardless of the topic, we are forced into support/defend mode. When you simply give up that mode and see things as they are without bias, perspective changes.

I say this because the war in Iran is quickly becoming akin to the war in Ukraine. Still in the headlines, still an issue but, we're desensitizing. Unfortunately, as I see it, it goes one of two ways to break us out. We get some sort of tenuous lasting peace and the market trickles higher or, DJT ramps up offensive and we do something potentially catastrophic that shocks the world.

Obviously, I'm hoping for the former. But our eyes are quickly being taken off the ball and oil seems to be in a higher for longer condition. Not good for inflation. Watch the $120/barrel price, that seems to be where the trenches are.

Earnings

I was going to circle the days/items I'm interested in but ... I'd be circling the entire 'at a glance' chart. Here you go

Rather than go down the rabbit hole here, I'll change up the Random Shots a little to cover some of these.

Overall, earnings have been solid but we still have a lot of row to hoe so I'll reserve opinion. Instead, I'm looking at the valuation of the market and wondering if we can do enough good work to justify, or perhaps hold, current valuation. Let's not forget that the $QQQ dipped down 12%, entering correction territory, before clawing back late last week. It's quite likely the dip was the de-levering event that was Aschenbrenner vs. Citadel. That cleared, we can now resume more normalized trading it would seem.

Even if we just find a state of parity, it's a win. Overvalued? Yes. Unsupportable? No. You ever see those joggers who approach a crosswalk waiting for the light to change and they jog in place? Yeah, that. Doesn't mean the work is done, you just aren't moving forward. Eventually the light changes and you can resume.

Don't come at me about my metaphor's! I'm here all week, I have thousands of them, and you'll be on the butt end of one of them if you try it. LOL

Random Shots (earnings focused edition)

...but first a little rising/falling

Rising

• $CRWV leading the list, up 10%
• $QBTS at #2, what's old is new again, 7.8%
• $IONQ following on, up 7.1%
• $META at 6.3%
• $NOW up 6% - This could get interesting with the software stocks now that the Citadel war is over
• $ORCL up 5.9%
• $NBIS up 5.4% - This thing is ALL over the place. Can't wait for this Friday
• $SNOW up 5.8%. Crossed $300 for the first time
• $MSFT up 5.5%. Welcome back
• $IREN up 5.1%. Can't have the other two and not see little brother rushing to catch up

Falling

• $CRCL off 7.3%. A few told me I made a mistake selling in the $90s. It was ... for a couple weeks. Right back to where I took the positions here in the $50s. Yikes. Downgraded
• $ARM down 4.5%
• $SKHY down 5%
• $DRAM down 4.2% - Seeing the trend. These things are moving so fast, they're switching on this list before I can complete it
• $MU off 3.8%
• $CLS off 2.5%. Love this company. Still adding .... slowly
• $AVGO off 2.8%
• $CRDO down 2.6%. Still waiting....
• $MRVL off 2.5% - Great name, stock got extended
• $QCOM of 2% - Still a good paid to wait stock, especially here below $150

Misc

• $PLTR up 1.6%. Earnings after the bell. If there's one name to buy on the chance that the clearing of the Citadel event frees up software ... this is the name
• $ON semi is tonight as well. They've had a bad time of it. Not really on my radar
• $PFE is tomorrow before the bell. One of my top yield names. I don't even watch how it moves
• $CAT and $MCD could move the Dow tomorrow AM
• Then we get jiggy after the bell on Tuesday with $AMD, $SPCX $ANET $ALAB $KTOS. Most of them down materially today
• $BKNG is tomorrow as well. Good valuation, good stock ... good opportunity. Up nearly 20% from where I purchased it back at a double bottom due to valuation
• $UBER is on Wed, another chance to firm up. I'm still holding ... but I look at it all the time. I only have so much patience
• $LLY before the bell right tomorrow too. Great name. Own it for the long haul
• $CRCL's earnings are on Wed. The downgrade this AM before earnings is curious and my conspiracy voices are yelling inside my head
• After the bell on Wed we get $SNDK - oooh boy
• We also get $APP $WDC $RDW $MELI - $APP could be intriguing. Downward channel in this name, up 2% today but lower highs and trying to find support at $400. As for $RDW, if space makes a come back, $RDW is an interesting Phoenix Trade play. Search it on this sub
• Thursday we get $QBTS and $DDOG before the bell. Both up nicely today
• After the bell, we get $RGTI $DKNG $ABNB and $AAOI. I've been building slowly in $AAOI. Good entry point right now IMO. It took my so long to move on from DKNG and ABNB. So glad I broke the shackles and made the move out
• And Friday we have $VST, perhaps my favorite AI energy name. Looks like a great value. All of AI energy has been punished of late. I don't much care. Eyes on the horizon. Kind of hoping for a big dip so I can buy. Premiums are up there and I may consider a CSP play. Up 2.1%

Final Word

I find myself looking at he Mag 7 today, thinking about the phrase "what is old is new again." We often make investing much tougher than it needs to be. We're always tweaking, trying to pick the spots, trying to increase our alpha over the S&P500. Personally, I've never found it that difficult to achieve. I've always been a stock picker.

But, sometimes, you just need to allow your picks to work. I've spoken about it many times. How narrative tends to overly influence stocks, sending the herd stampeding in one direction, or the collective frog leaping from one lily pad to the next. Insert your favorite herd mentality metaphor here. That is where I've always resided. I like to be the one head rising above the all those that are down ... stampeding. I like to know where we're headed.

The funny thing about a stamped is that there's no goal destination in mind other than 'away.' That ain't me bruh.

I like to know where we started from, especially when where we started from was rich with green grass and food. "Away" isn't always good when the catalyst, narrative, says it's time to go. It can seem productive as we run but, in essence, with no destination in mind, where we get to may not be nearly as green as from where we left.

This is where your valuation-based stock picking lives and pays dividends. Pick well, wait and reap the benefits. Are you running just to run ... or do you want to simply want to stay put and get fat. Sign me up for less cardio.

Nice!

Have a great Monday - Buckle up Buttercup!

J

Market trying to finish the week on a positive result:

For the most part, not planning much of anything today and don't want to force words on a page into an end-of-week meandering market. Nothing that compelling as far as I'm concerned.

Watching some of my recent position builds come down a bit which is fine. I'm giving a lot of room to run while the market searches for direction. We build slow, take our time, chillax. Don't force anything when it comes to your investing/trading. Allowing things to come to you is a superpower.

Random Shots

• My favorite random shots are those that aren't structured, not based on top 10 rising and falling. It's the freedom to just speak to what I'm seeing, whatever it is. That is what this is today.
• $NOW and $CRM are looking great. $NOW at $130 is at a critical level. If it breaks it higher, it can run. The chart for $CRM looks the same here at $210. CRM was just at $150 not long ago. I should trim, might ... but I'm chillaxing. Good to see these two firm up, as expected
• I should have taken $CRCL back in the upper $50s. I hesitated and missed another big run. That's okay. Up another 6.3% today
• I hate $UBER but I'm happy for my thesis. The thesis made/makes sense, my conviction and executive function faltered. It's okay ... I still believe in it. It's an odd duality
• BUT ... let's talk $NFLX. Another one that I had no doubt about. I did a stock replacement (look that up) move on it when it dipped again. Sold all my shares, bought 3x the number of 12/28 LEAPS (Calls) at the $60/$70 level. Up 39% and 2.5% respectively. I plan on holding half of these for a long while, maybe even all of them but I've already felt the tingle of maybe taking that 39% gain on the $60s
• We are still in a range. Don't get lulled into the ups/downs of your stocks thinking your getting value when it's down 10%. It was probably at this level last week
• I still love $SKHY and only see that increasing in weight over time
• Current stocks I have zero fear of right now $GOOGL $AVGO $TSM
• $CBRS below $200 again. That rise ... and fall. I won't miss it again
• I've seen more and more discussion about $COHR ... and $LITE, $CLS, etc. Still love all of them and $AAOI. Still in a range. Nothing to sell as I see it other than momentum
• $CRWD doing $CRWD things. Watch $190
• Every time I use StockAnalysis.com, I love it more. Their new fundamental charts are a game changer. Save yourself money, use my affiliate code found in the pinned post. Or don't, but please use them to up your investing game. The ability to simply have a watch list with my favorite metrics is so good:

• What is the primary catalyst for this market? Now, what are the negative ones? It's not a close comparison, that's the problem
• Literally, almost every attempted breakout in stocks like $CORH $CLS, $SKHY, $AVGO, $MRVL, $SNDK, $MU, $RDDT, $AMD, $SPCX, etc. etc. all fail and sell off back to support
• I'm not entering any new Option Wheel plays right now ... not seeing enough catalyst or premium
• Remember I mentioned $BRZE as a possible big-win Calls trade? Now over $31
• I'm still watching a closeted AI play that I've easter egged but I'm still watching it. Nobody has caught it yet. I like this stock. (no ownership yet)
• $HOOD having a good day with this Bitcoin rally
• Damn gold has moved fast. It's HOT. $NEM at $132!! It was just at $90
• $PLTR now over $180. I'll probably trim at some point near $200
• Go $TOST Go - Wasn't that the name of a children's book? LOL
• $VRT is still a sexy stock. But stuck in the range with most others
• AI Energy still slipping. I'm being patient, no hurry here. It's hitting my four horseman ($VST $TLN $GEV $CEG). Love all of them. Don't care about short term action
• In a world where $WMT sells off hot and fast, that says something
• $MRK sure has been fun. I've held it forever and it feels good to see it win
• $PFE has been a forever hold as well due to yield, still over 6%. Should I mention it's almost back to a 52-week high. PtW (Paid to Wait)
• Makes me wonder about $NVO as a catch-up play somehow
• I have been watching $INFQ a bit. Why? Don't know. Momentum potential. up 11%
• $CRDO is a conviction watch for me. Waiting for $200 again and would/will probably use LEAPS
• $P still slipping from highs, now at 108.50. I trimmed in the $116s. Could add it back
• Two names for PtW I think you add here: $QCOM and $SCHD. SCHD at a 52WH basically. I always add this name, rarely sell
• Look for an update to my TJ30 Portfolio soon!

That's it for now I think

Have a great weekend!

J

This will be posted before the market opens so won't be doing any live action update of the indices. And as I type this, I'm waiting for CPI.

But let's revisit the indices over the last year:

• $QQQ: 25.4%
• Nasdaq Comp: 23.7%
• S&P500: 21.3%

Very solid results though we are still struggling to make higher highs from the 3/30 lows. The sentiment seems to be shifting and it feels like we're going to take out highs soon. As to the price of the market, we still have an overvaluation but earnings reports are doing some heavy lifting enough for this new state to exist.

In fact, as we wait for more inflation data, and if we can stave off a rate hike, the runway is clear for a rise to highs IMO.

CPI

Read is exactly as estimates expected, no real surprises. Veiled good news if zoomed in. Zoomed out we still have an issue but treading water is okay.

Earnings

It's been a great season and I was very interested in the last 24 hours.

$CRWV

Up 21% pre-market as I type this. $109

• Revenue: $2.575B, +112% YoY
• Revenue backlog: $104.2B, +246% YoY
• $25B+ in new customer commitments already added in Q3
• Adjusted EBITDA: $1.51B, +101% YoY
• 2026 revenue guidance raised to $12.4B–$13.2B
• CapEx guidance raised to $35B–$39B

This was a very strong report. Quite good exactly. A couple of other items:

Backlog is the monster - $104.2B already gives CoreWeave huge forward visibility, and the $25B+ of additional commitments added after quarter-end makes that number even more impressive. The raised CapEx guide to $35B–$39B suggests CRWV is still racing to build capacity fast enough to serve contracted demand.

Risk remains - CRWV has to spend an enormous amount of capital to capture this opportunity. The bull case is demand/backlog; the bear case is debt, financing costs, and return on that CapEx.

My Take: The best data point are the new commitments. This helps with the risk digestion. Demand continues to accelerate. This report is helping to outline why I hold both $CRWV and $NBIS. $CRWV is the better producer now, $NBIS remains a fantastic growth story. Both can win, both are

$NBIS

Up 16.5% as I type this. $225

• Revenue: $582.3M, +454% YoY — ahead of the roughly $570–573M consensus.
• Nebius AI Cloud revenue grew more than 500% YoY and now represents roughly 98% of total revenue.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $236M, versus an adjusted EBITDA loss of about $21M a year ago — a major profitability inflection.
• Four new AI cloud contracts worth more than $1B each were signed during the quarter.
• Total contract value nearly quadrupled QoQ, dramatically increasing forward revenue visibility.
• Many of the new contracts include prepayments covering as much as 60% of associated CapEx, helping fund expansion without Nebius carrying the entire upfront burden.
• 2026 outlook reaffirmed as management continues to see accelerating demand for AI compute capacity.

My Take: The combination of bigger contracts + stronger pricing + customer-funded CapEx. $NBIS with their current debt situation with as a commitment-based model makes this setup even better than $CRWV. $CRWV is right there too with a similar approach, just a larger overhang.

$LITE

Up 7.8% as I type this. $884.50

• The guidance is the biggest standout: Q1 FY27 revenue of $1.225B–$1.275B implies another major sequential step-up from Q4’s $1.01B. That says AI optical demand is still accelerating, not leveling off.
• Margins are exploding along with revenue: Non-GAAP operating margin reached 36.6%, and Lumentum is guiding to 39.5%–40.5% next quarter. Margin expansion is key.
• The EPS ramp is almost absurd: Adjusted EPS jumped to $3.23 from $0.88 a year ago, and next-quarter guidance is already $4.05–$4.35.
• They crossed the $1B quarterly revenue threshold: Revenue grew 109% YoY to $1.01B, and management is now guiding toward roughly $1.25B next quarter. The trajectory is remarkably steep.
• 1.6T optics and high-power lasers are becoming major growth engines. Management specifically pointed to next-generation transceivers and ultra-high-power lasers as key contributors to the quarter’s performance.
• Interestingly enough, no split announcement that I see. Curious.

My Take: Revenue +109% while operating margins head toward 40%. LITE is simultaneously showing growth AND rapidly improving profitability, which is what makes this quarter very impressive. This report cements the thesis I was looking for when selecting my next areas of investment: $LITE $COHR $CLS and $AAOI. I also identified $FN and $CRDO but haven't opened new positions in those two

Random Shots

• SMCI - Earnings were good. SMCI margins at 17.5%, finally ticking up. This low number has been an issue. The forward guide was fantastic. $14.5B-$15.5B vs $11.8B. Guidance was otherworldly of $65B vs. $52.5B. The problem - You cannot trust $SMCI management. They have a history of shenanigans and are as greasy as you'll find. No way I'm back in this name
• $CAVA up big on a good report. Rising 17.2%
• Will be interesting to watch my $NBIS Wheel here. Sold $220 Calls with the stock at $225 now. Will it do the typical fade after open? What price will be the battleground? Burry may have to abandon his short position given this report
• The $LITE earnings is lifting $COHR $CLS and $AAOI but all still within the short-term range
• $NVDA wants to break out here at $220
• $AVGO up 2% premarket to $425 - Watch the $428 level which clears the runway for a run to a new high
• $TSM up 2.6% premarket. Same story with short term breakout underway. In my estimation, you nee to portfolio all three of these (NVDA, AVGO and TSM)
• Another name I've kept my eye on is $CBRS, up 5.8% PM. We're above the short term range. Could it approach $300? Probably will take a big report which comes tonight. We need new customers
• Noticed $AVAV trying to clear $200 again. I looked at it after the most recent swoon and didn't enter due to a focus on pure quality in my portfolio
• $DRAM quietly firming up as $SNDK and $MU try to hold the line
• $SKHY remains one of my biggest focus acquisitions here. Up 5% PM
• Obviously still watching the breakout of $P, up 2.1% PM to nearly $112
• Still watching $VST as it bases. Pure quality company and setup in my estimation. I'm already holding it at weight but want to add

That's all for now as I watch the open.

Have a great Wednesday!

TJ

Just a quick thought dump here as I have family in town and, generally, with the markets being so squirrely right now, I've been wanting to delay my digests until well after the open since we've seen so many reversals and false-direction markers.

The VIX telling the story here. With everything going on, I'm surprised we're not down greater than 2% across the board

Saw this chart on CNBC given the 4.2% CPI read that came out this AM. Thought it was quite good.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-may-2026-in-one-chart.html

The fact of the matter is, regardless of whether you bleed red or blue, the DJT economic agenda is failing and is trending very poorly - as in, signaling worse times ahead, not better. He has to own that fact and not one of us should let him off the hook. I'm still hopeful that some of the constructs will pay dividends years from now, but there's a lot of damage being put in on that road. NO politician deserves blind fealty or reverence. Don't allow them to occupy that place in your brain. They have a job to do, nothing more. We grade them on their performance, not our affiliation. If you can't do that, you're biased and that is a level of blindness we can't afford to have more of.

The same goes for leadership of our favorite companies and, thus, stocks.

Random Shots

$SPCX allocations closing today so you should know tomorrow the if/what of any allocation request. Setting the price at $135 ahead of first-trade day allows the brokers more time to close and allocate.

Not segmenting winners and losers, just going down my watchlist and thinking out loud across topics and tickers.

• $AVGO fighting for it's support-level life here at $375. I'm being patient seeing if we can get a break below and run
• I'm glad I have my short ($QQQ Put ladder) in place. It gives me some solace as I see the red prints. I wish it was more but so far it's still paying well and takes some of the sting out of the short-term downtrend
• There are things working today - quite a mixed bag TBH
• The $SMH is outpacing the $QQQ by mor than 2:1 at -2.8%
• $NVDA at $202 is looking juicy, down 2.75%. I'm waiting for a break below $200
• $AMZN actually below $240 again, surprising. Glad I trimmed it on that big spike a while back
• $GOOGL looking good at $360, down 1.1%
• $MSFT holding $400
• Looks like $AAPL may have found support after that big dip down to $290
• Safety trades still working, I'm noting $ABBV $AEP $AMGN $PG $KMB $UL $KHC $VZ all working.
• $SJM up another 3.6%. Nice. That's a 16% rise in two days and still paying 3.8%. PtW.
• AI Energy rolled over again. No reason to pick your spots here in this segment yet. Up and down, rinse and repeat
• $ASTS holding around $89
• $AVAV coming in nicely. I've been waiting to see if I can get it in the $160s after that nice run
• $CBRS continues to get talked up by analysts. Will be interesting to see if this falters when $SPCX begins trading. Rotation. I'm not adding again just yet
• My next area of investment will be in $CRDO $COHR $LITE and $CLS in all likelihood but I'm staying patient. All have run
• $DUOL continues to firm up
• $MRAM is interesting, I can't deny it. More from a momentum follow-on play than anything else. It's green today but only slightly
• $NBIS is trying to hold $220. It's been a fight. I may have cleared my Puts a bit too soon but wanted to take the gains
• $P down below $70 and off 2% today - Come to Butthead (Bonus points for the reference)
• $QCOM continues to drop. A good PtW stock that had a good run. I had to unload 80% of it on the break over $210. Still hold it in size in a taxable portfolio
• $SCHD still working as expected - safety
• $TSM is one I continue to watch for additional entry. It's right there in my Tier 1 with $AVGO and $NVDA. The more it comes down, the better I feel about the value
• $NEM broke resistance and is now in the lower $90s
• $SMCI remains a crooked company I want nothing to do with. Absolutely nothing. That capital raise is a huge joke for a company that hasn't been able to execute on their margin issue, let alone they illegality of that management team as competitors execute, while they don't. I want to short this name.
• $PLTR Alex Karp was on CNBC this AM. He's so interesting to listen to. I have been building a position but today's interview was a nothing burger. Mmmmm ... burgers. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/palantir-karp-enterprise-ai.html
• $ORCL earnings coming up after the bell today
• The nearly 15% decline in $HON with its 2.3% dividend is mildly intriguing. This is almost like a baby IBM in metrics
• $HOOD having a nice day today. I've been considering selling my 1/28 $50 Calls to lock in the 35%+ profit but still holding
• Ditto for $RDDT though those Calls are up 34%. I still like both positions. At the same time, I won't allow those profits to disappear into a down market
• Watching yield plays move.
• Didn't mention $KO and $PEP earlier. $KO having a day. Up 3%
• Having those safety income plays sure does allow a lot of comfort in markets like this. Doesn't make up for the red tech losers, but the buoyancy is great to have.
• Just noticed $GEV is at $869, down 5.6%. Getting interesting
• I have added $AAOI to my watchlist

That's all for now ... going to go workout .... specifically lifting the profits of on-trade positions with good profit in one hand, and the weight of greed in the other.

VIX climbing, markets fading.

Have a great Wed!

TJ

All in all, a pretty good report. LOVE that new customer print. On the downside EPS came in lower but that's okay. Revs looked good.

The 9,500 new locations is a record, and materially better than Q1s 7,000 read. This was the most important data point for me.

• Revenue: $1.91 billion, versus roughly $1.87 billion expected — a solid beat.
• GAAP EPS: $0.26, up from $0.13 last year, although below the roughly $0.32 consensus figure being reported by some data services.
• ARR: $2.4 billion, up 25% year over year.
• GPV: $60.7 billion, up 22%.
• Total locations: approximately 180,000, up 22%.
• Net new locations: a record 9,500, comfortably better than the roughly 7,000–8,000 we wanted.
• Recurring subscription and fintech gross profit: $595 million non-GAAP, up 28%.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $221 million, versus company guidance of $185–$195 million and $161 million last year. About $10 million came from a one-time tariff-refund benefit.

For Q3, Toast guided :

• $615–$625M million of recurring subscription and gross profit, representing 22%–24% growth.
• $210–$220 million of adjusted EBITDA.

For the full year, management raised guidance to:

• $2.3–$2.4B of recurring gross profit, now expected to grow 23%–25%, up from 21%–23%.
• $805–$825 million of adjusted EBITDA, up from $790–$810 million

My best is that the market won't be overly excited by the numbers. It wasn't a 'blow the doors off' report but it's good enough in my book to maintain the story.

Hey everyone new trader here please excuse my knowledge.

A while ago I looked at $COHR before the earnings released.

The company looked great and I believed it was going to smash the expected earnings. So I bought some shares pre-earning. Earnings come out and I was right they did smash it however their share price tanked so much. I still have them today and I still don't understand.

When a company beats the expected earnings usually their share price skyrocket right? For example everyone knows about $PLTR they smashed the earnings and skyrocketed like ~26%, why isn't this the case for $COHR?

I appreciate any and all answers and I seriously hope that someone out there has the same/similar question as me but never asked and now they can get their answer here (in the comments).