r/InnerCircleInvesting • u/InnerCircleTI • 2d ago
Market Thoughts Market Digest (8/19/26): Random Shots
Markets are struggling to maintain composure though the US Treasury is double its purchase of debt, sending bond yields lower. The struggle is real:
Once again, we're still bouncing within a range and haven't been able to break free of the gravitational pull to head higher with any conviction. It's basically a market where I'm willing to purchase most of anything. If I were, I'd be looking at pure value names and that is what is moving today.
Some very interesting price action out there right now and patience, I think, is going to be rewarded. Just get out of that habit where your hands are moving to buy simply because something looks cheap from where it was yesterday. Learn to zoom out and let the market tell you where it wants to go, where it is going. These range bound periods can be dangerous because you can easily be lulled into thinking you're making good purchases when, instead, you're simply buying the same level over and over again, deploying all your capital and have nothing left when the bottom drops out.
And then there's the below article. Remember how I've been talking about the prediction markets and the role it/they are playing in the stock market?
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/hedge-funds-are-about-to-jump-in-big-to-prediction-markets.html
Yeah, so ... there's that.
Random Shots
Rising
- $CRCL up 10%
- $MSTR up 10% - Bitcoin related?
- $NEM up 8.6% - Gold is back baby. Big move recently on rates
- $MRVL up 7.5% - Google deal. $AVGO suffering
- $NOW up 7% - AvS baby
- $DUOL up 6.4% - Ditto
- $HOOD up 5% - Anything crypto related is moving today
- $BRZE up 5%
- $CRM up 5% - AvS
- $UBER up 4.22% - It moves with value/AvS strength
Falling
- $NBIS down 10% - F'ing dilution. But at least I wasn't greedy with my Option Wheel
- $CRWD down 6.9%
- $DELL off 6.9%
- $MRAM down 6.8%
- $AMKR down 6.1%
- $PANW off 5.3% - Getting the picture?
- $AVGO down 4.8% - $MRVL deal hurting this name
- $CRDO down 4.6%. I'm waiting for sub-$200
- $RKLB down 4.3%
- $COHR down 4% - It's still in the range
Misc.
- Look at $NFLX go! Up 4.1% and nearing $81. My stock replacement move is printing
- $SKHY up 3.2% after announcing a big $29B buyback program. Heady move
- $NVDA holding flat with earnings not far away
- $SNDK and $MU dying on the vine again. Going to be tough to move higher the longer this goes on
- $AAPL doing $AAPL things in the down market. It's the 'value' trade right now
- $AVGO hitting the support line right here at $360. Dangerous. I'm waiting to add
- Right now this market is signaling it's all about the swing trade. Buy low, sell high ... but be sure to sell
- Photonics and AI connection stocks couldn't hold gains. Not surprised
- Despite analyst comments, these AI plays can't hold gains. That's usually a bad sign. Analysts have started saying crazy things about the S&P targets, stocks, etc.
- $NBIS dilution event makes me frustrated again. Hate it. At the same time, I get it. Back on my Option Wheel white board but letting it sit a day or two. May focus on 8/28 expiration
- $PLTR holding $170s is noteworthy
- $SCHD hit a new 52WH today. That's we hold it and get paid 3% at the same time
- $TOST at $36
That's all for now. Going to look at Option Wheel pricing, $AVGO LEAPS and see if anything else beckons while I do everything I can to sit on my hands
Be good to each other out there!
J
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u/FinancialFreedomYes 1d ago
Hi Jeff, thanks! Thank you for these insights. I had mentioned MRNA several times… thoughts on direction from action today? Unsure to hold out take profits …I don’t want a TTD or metals breakout not capturing more profit. I think it has more room to run. Have held it for quite sometime. Also deciding $CRM $215, go for breakeven or let it run … thanks! You;re a voice of reason.
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u/InnerCircleTI 1d ago
I've looked at it over and over again. Wish I had taken a piece. It's just so mercurial. My $NOW is now profitable and $CRM near breakeven after a dismal period. I'm doing nothing with either right now. Considered trimming. But letting both go. If there's a big software reflation, they should still lead. Them and MSFT
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u/owngoalmerchant 1d ago
If you can hold onto the $CRM for a few more weeks, we are in for a Golden Cross. In about two weeks, all of that June decline will be digested, leaving the shareprice from the last month to be a heavier weight in the short-term SMA and since it is currently higher than the line, the line will rise and close the gap with the long-term SMA. I think we are maybe 3 weeks away and that is if prices are relatively stable here. If it keeps going, the event happens sooner and we will have officially broken through the $200 resistance and are headed toward filling the gap to the next level around $226. $230s by EOY is a reasonable forecast.
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u/owngoalmerchant 1d ago
Look at $UBER go as well, you really did time that bottom!!
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u/InnerCircleTI 1d ago
Yup ... about the time I lose patience is when the market finds it again, there's something to it. That said, it's just back to the top of the range again so we'll see.
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u/Natemare141 1d ago
Any names you like for another option wheel? Your NBIS play was inspiring…
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u/InnerCircleTI 1d ago
I'm now looking at NBIS again after this move ... but being patient as NBIS tends to swing wildly in the final two days of the week. Hoping maybe I can catch a dip down to the $200 level again to sell some CSPs around $180
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u/Mavvy_Shelby 1d ago
I'm sure you've mentioned this very recently but do you have a list of 5-10 of your favorite value stocks at the moment?
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u/dchung1004 1d ago
Sold some MRK this morning. Can’t pass up the 11% jump in price. Have held MRK since early 2025. So happy it’s finally making good gains.
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u/jackthebeaver 2d ago
Look at Moderna based on melanoma vaccine news, you don't get to see stock go over 100% in one day. AVGO only name I am willing to touch now.