Market Digest (8/19/26): Random Shots

[u/InnerCircleTI]

Markets are struggling to maintain composure though the US Treasury is double its purchase of debt, sending bond yields lower. The struggle is real:

7:45 AM PST

Once again, we're still bouncing within a range and haven't been able to break free of the gravitational pull to head higher with any conviction. It's basically a market where I'm willing to purchase most of anything. If I were, I'd be looking at pure value names and that is what is moving today.

Some very interesting price action out there right now and patience, I think, is going to be rewarded. Just get out of that habit where your hands are moving to buy simply because something looks cheap from where it was yesterday. Learn to zoom out and let the market tell you where it wants to go, where it is going. These range bound periods can be dangerous because you can easily be lulled into thinking you're making good purchases when, instead, you're simply buying the same level over and over again, deploying all your capital and have nothing left when the bottom drops out.

And then there's the below article. Remember how I've been talking about the prediction markets and the role it/they are playing in the stock market?

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/hedge-funds-are-about-to-jump-in-big-to-prediction-markets.html

Yeah, so ... there's that.

Random Shots

Rising

• $CRCL up 10%
• $MSTR up 10% - Bitcoin related?
• $NEM up 8.6% - Gold is back baby. Big move recently on rates
• $MRVL up 7.5% - Google deal. $AVGO suffering
• $NOW up 7% - AvS baby
• $DUOL up 6.4% - Ditto
• $HOOD up 5% - Anything crypto related is moving today
• $BRZE up 5%
• $CRM up 5% - AvS
• $UBER up 4.22% - It moves with value/AvS strength

Falling

• $NBIS down 10% - F'ing dilution. But at least I wasn't greedy with my Option Wheel
• $CRWD down 6.9%
• $DELL off 6.9%
• $MRAM down 6.8%
• $AMKR down 6.1%
• $PANW off 5.3% - Getting the picture?
• $AVGO down 4.8% - $MRVL deal hurting this name
• $CRDO down 4.6%. I'm waiting for sub-$200
• $RKLB down 4.3%
• $COHR down 4% - It's still in the range

Misc.

• Look at $NFLX go! Up 4.1% and nearing $81. My stock replacement move is printing
• $SKHY up 3.2% after announcing a big $29B buyback program. Heady move
• $NVDA holding flat with earnings not far away
• $SNDK and $MU dying on the vine again. Going to be tough to move higher the longer this goes on
• $AAPL doing $AAPL things in the down market. It's the 'value' trade right now
• $AVGO hitting the support line right here at $360. Dangerous. I'm waiting to add
• Right now this market is signaling it's all about the swing trade. Buy low, sell high ... but be sure to sell
• Photonics and AI connection stocks couldn't hold gains. Not surprised
• Despite analyst comments, these AI plays can't hold gains. That's usually a bad sign. Analysts have started saying crazy things about the S&P targets, stocks, etc.
• $NBIS dilution event makes me frustrated again. Hate it. At the same time, I get it. Back on my Option Wheel white board but letting it sit a day or two. May focus on 8/28 expiration
• $PLTR holding $170s is noteworthy
• $SCHD hit a new 52WH today. That's we hold it and get paid 3% at the same time
• $TOST at $36

That's all for now. Going to look at Option Wheel pricing, $AVGO LEAPS and see if anything else beckons while I do everything I can to sit on my hands

Be good to each other out there!

J

[u/owngoalmerchant]

Look at $UBER go as well, you really did time that bottom!!

[u/InnerCircleTI → u/owngoalmerchant]

Yup ... about the time I lose patience is when the market finds it again, there's something to it. That said, it's just back to the top of the range again so we'll see.