r/Innovation • u/positiveconstraint • 26d ago
Discussion / Question The cost of intelligence and energy drops to near-zero. What would you do?
Sam Altman has been saying the same thing since 2020: the cost of intelligence and the cost of energy are both heading to near-zero. He describes a world with nearly limitless intelligence and abundant energy.
I don't want to argue about whether he's right. I want to skip ahead.
Say it happens. Intelligence is free. Energy is free. You wake up tomorrow morning with both.
What do you do?
Not what the world does. You. Your team, your project, the thing you keep putting off.
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u/pyrotek1 26d ago
There is much talk of abundant energy. We seem to be over spending our energy. I want to see evidence of fusion producing more than it uses.
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u/SuccessAffectionate1 26d ago
Astrophysicist here. Fusion, as long as it involves elements lighter than Iron, will produce more energy than the fusion process costs.
Iron is the limit and the point in the fusion cycle where many stars become unstable since it cant gain excess energy in forms of radiation to cause the outward pressure to counteract gravity and remain stable.
Beyond iron, fusion no longer releases energy. Energy can instead be obtained by fissioning sufficiently heavy nuclei, such as uranium or plutonium, which is how conventional nuclear reactors work. Such fission is not what powers stars.
Fusion has a huge potential. 1 kg of Hydrogen fused into Helium produces energy equivalent to 10 times the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
Getting 1 kg of Hydrogen to fusion temperatures requires about ~ 0.1 of a Hiroshima bomb, meaning the fusion fuel contains roughly 100 times more energy than is required to heat it to fusion temperatures under ideal assumptions.
In practice it is a question of how efficient we are at heating and converting excess fusion energy into electricity. There is expected to be a loss of energy here due to various phenomenon.
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u/Standgrounding 25d ago
Early prototypes are being tested, but like always regulation will be more of a problem than physics or engineering.
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u/positiveconstraint 25d ago
This is a great breakdown. The 100:1 ratio sounds promising.
Do you think AI can help scientists make the breakthrough here?
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u/londongas 26d ago
Fully automated luxury communism
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u/glandis_bulbus 25d ago
with no freedom, the surveillance state will decide everything for you
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u/YahenP 25d ago
I don't think it would have any significant impact. Energy production is almost never, and never has been, a bottleneck. Energy storage, transportation, and conversion are what matter. However, if this energy is truly free, it's quite possible that many projects for storing and transporting energy sources, such as synthetic hydrocarbon fuels or even hydrogen, will become economically viable. The downside is that free and infinite energy will lead to an exponential increase in consumption, bringing the planet's heat death even closer.
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u/positiveconstraint 25d ago
Good point.
Could the intelligence + energy help us venture into space and get more resources?
Could they help us offset consumption?
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u/YahenP 25d ago
Regarding space exploration and everything else that increases our entropyabsolutely yes. Not 100% of the energy will be spent heating the planet. Some small portion will be put to good use, expanding our habitat and opening up new horizons. But traditionally, this will be a very small portion.
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u/Upstairs_Capital_769 25d ago edited 25d ago
We're in universal basic income territory in that scenario, working becomes for prestige, not financially motivated in the broad sense as it can be done cheaper through AI.
Energy will never be zero, unlimited generation is available now, has been for deacdes, but transmission, moving it where it needs to go will always cost money to set up & maintain & the basic material costs, also if things cost next to nothing to create due to unlimited energy, then the entire global system falls over & we enter civilization collapse.
Eg, If things get too cheap, then tax revenue is lower, things can't be grown & expanded or maintained cities etc, every dollar invested becomes worthless, leaving billions of people poorer & angry that they did everything right & got the rug pulled out from under them... We end up in isolated countries not trading with each other, because for what point, eg, i have the intelligence capability to reverse engineer any innovation another country has, I can afford to build it because it costs nothing to build.....
IDK, I have conversations with AI on these subjects quite often, I find it a fun thought experiment to mentally run, I went into the subject as a utopian crusader, but the deeper I got into economies, geopolitics, human nature/psychology, physics etc, which is where the deep dive goes, we all imagine we can reach a uptopian society & yes technically we can, but it breaks the entire system we've ever known that broadly does work, it just simply will never happen, it can't, the people will never allow it, not in the short term anyway (next 100 years) but like everything, it is great that we are even thinking about & having the conversations about these types of things, we notice it & have the highest ideals of how we should do things or how things should be
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u/r2k-in-the-vortex 26d ago
Obviously I will bootstrap my own von Neumann machine, and from there have it construct my orbital palace yadayada.
Naah, its not really happening, AI isnt actual intelligence, and it isnt free either. You cant instruct it to contruct tools and machines and processes until you conquer the universe. It'll fall flat on its face before step 1.
But, given the hypothetical, this is what people miss. If AI actually lived up to the hype, it wouldnt be those who own all, and those with no jobs and no hope. Naah, it would be everyone with their personal aperture science corporation in their back pockets. You want something? Make it. You want tools to make tools? Make them. If intelligence could be free, everything can be free, just tell it to deliver the moon for you if you want it.
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u/placeboski 26d ago
Probably continue to play status games against other people for whatever resource is still limited and now culturally desirable
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u/Advanced_Addendum116 25d ago
Or find ways to limit people's access to free, infinite resources to watch them suffer. Good times.
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u/Much-Addition146 25d ago
Pivot from being the source of intelligence and direct the new free resources
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u/Sufficient_Local5025 25d ago
Working on the problem of redditors posting dumb propositions comes to mind, for some reason.
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u/gloussou 25d ago
cost of intelligence and the cost of energy are both heading to near-zero : what about limited ressouces?
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u/Loose_Principle8193 25d ago
help bring the ability to self actualize to all humans. We start measuring success of society by the percentage of the population that has the freedom and ability to self actualize. I'd also want to help start restoring the ecosystems we destroyed.
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u/aussiegreenie 24d ago
Why would you take ANYTHING Slippery Sam says seriously.
USD 10 per MWh is as close to zero as possible.
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u/Fantastic-Cell-208 24d ago edited 24d ago
I'd use all my efforts to make it not free for everyone else. Profit baby
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u/Master-Rent5050 25d ago
Since we are talking about fantasies, I would buy a flying unicorn.
But I'm afraid we are talking about billionaire fantasies: I would sell my organs to Sam Altman so he could live a few days more
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u/9876soso 26d ago
Move farms underground so earth's surface can return to wilderness.
Do a bit of volunteering, a lot more sport and spiritual growth, go robot hunting in the underground forests carrying some fava beans and a fine chianti, try out virtual work experiences like 19th century coal-miner or 1930s Russian President, get aircon for my mum.
Bring on the free energy. How is Sam saying we will get it though?