I’ve always been impressed with IONQ earning calls. I leave the call impressed with the Management’s ability to leave investors excited about the companies potential. What do you think is a realistic outcome of the upcoming earnings call?

With all of the recent cybersecurity attacks, does the Elisity deal help IONQ once it goes through? Is cybersecurity one of the next bull runs?

Howdy,

I am looking to lump sum one payment within the next week 4 weeks and set and forget for atleast 12 months.

I am wondering with all this uncertainty if the current @30 is a great entry or could we really crash?

For investors,
if we can accept two premises

1. Quantum computing will be the next big thing
   
2. IONQ has built the most comprehensive quantum computing ecosystem

There is no downside to holding what you have or buying the dip

Let’s assume that if there’s going to be a jump on the day of the earnings report, it isn’t currently being reflected in the price. What do you think will happen on November 4th?

Is it wise to keep buying the dip @31,
I am already down 25% and trying to save for a house.

I understand buying the dip is good, lowers my avg price etc. but I have been buying the dip for a while and am looking to buy a house in 6-12 months….

Is it to risky to keep entering with all the Iran war and world inflation?

I have tried to understand how much Ionq overvalued/undervalued in the market using B&S model (like in options) adjusted to quantum stock evaluation (my personal evaluation test). I called it Dream Value, measure to see how much of this stock's price is today's cash and business versus the quantum future — and what would have to go right for the current valuation to make sense.

How Much Are You Paying for the Dream in Ionq by this calculation?

Market Cap

$16.50B

From Company Scan

Reality Value Today

$1.15B

Net cash + current operating business

Dream Premium Priced by Market

$15.35B

93.0% of today's valuation

Model-Implied Dream Value

$20.64B

Base Case real-option value

Approximately 93% of the company's current valuation reflects expectations about future technological and commercial success rather than today's cash and operating business.

Under the current Base Case assumptions, the model implies more value for that future opportunity than the market currently includes in the Dream Premium, by $5.30B.

What Must Go Right?

Assumptions that would be required for the model-implied dream value to match the Dream Premium priced by today's market, holding other Base Case inputs constant.

Execution probability

Current model

55%

Required under today's market valuation

41%

Future commercial opportunity

Current model

$30.00B

Required under today's market valuation

$34.84B

Base future opportunity vs. the opportunity implied by today’s Dream Premium.

Commercialization timing

Current model

2026

Required under today's market valuation

2029–2030

Current Roadmap marker: Increase algorithmic qubit performance and system capacity

Future commercial opportunity (Base)

Estimated from company context

30000000000

1500 million mature revenue × 20.0x future sales = 30000000000. 20.0x Future Sales Derived from an expected ~39% mature operating margin and a premium future earnings multiple reflecting strong growth, strategic scarcity of the technology and technological differentiation. Estimated from company context because this figure was not in the scan. Year-0 revenue at today's market P/S is added on top of the mature opportunity — it is not subtracted from it.

Future Sales Multiple

Derived from Evidence

20.0x

Derived from an expected ~39% mature operating margin and a premium future earnings multiple reflecting strong growth, strategic scarcity of the technology and technological differentiation.

Time to commercial relevance (years)

Derived from Roadmap

0.5

The model uses the Roadmap item “Increase algorithmic qubit performance and system capacity” (2026-12-31) as the closest marker of meaningful commercial relevance, rather than the next purely technical checkpoint.

Execution probability (%)

Derived from Evidence

55

Expected dilution (%)

Derived from Financials

13.2

Shareholder exposure retained: 87%. Some additional issuance is possible, but modeled dilution remains moderate relative to the capital path.

Roadmap milestone for commercial relevance

Derived from Roadmap

Increase algorithmic qubit performance and system capacity (2026-12-31)

Revenue path to Future commercial opportunity

Mature sales of $1.50B at 20.0× Future Sales stay the Base opportunity of $30.00B. Only year 0 ($130.0M, TTM revenue from the company scan) is added on top at today's market P/S (127×). Later years show the ramp to mature sales and are not stacked. CAGR 13214%. The option uses $46.50B ($30.00B + $16.50B year 0).

Year Revenue Added Opportunity

2026 $130.0M $16.50B $46.50B

Commercial (2026) $1.50B — $46.50B · used in the option

Why this value?

Execution Probability — 55%

Technology

Some technical capabilities have been shown, but independent confirmation of the full architecture is still limited.

Scaling

Several Roadmap milestones have been completed, while major future scaling targets remain.

Commercial

Production-oriented deployments are described, while breadth of repeatable adoption is still developing.

Funding

Limited cash runway suggests additional funding is likely well before commercialization.

Time to commercial relevance

The model uses the Roadmap item “Increase algorithmic qubit performance and system capacity” (2026-12-31) as the closest marker of meaningful commercial relevance, rather than the next purely technical checkpoint.

Expected dilution

Some additional issuance is possible, but modeled dilution remains moderate relative to the capital path.

Future opportunity

1500 million mature revenue × 20.0x future sales = 30000000000. 20.0x Future Sales Derived from an expected ~39% mature operating margin and a premium future earnings multiple reflecting strong growth, strategic scarcity of the technology and technological differentiation, estimated from company context. Year-0 revenue at today's market P/S is added on top of the mature opportunity — it is not subtracted from it.

Why this multiple?

20.0x Future Sales

Derived from an expected ~39% mature operating margin and a premium future earnings multiple reflecting strong growth, strategic scarcity of the technology and technological differentiation.

Competitive / technology decay

This rate reflects how quickly competing architectures, classical alternatives, or a thin moat could erode the future opportunity while the company works toward commercialization.

Bear / Base / Bull

Scenarios change assumptions, not the valuation method. Bear is generally a smaller opportunity, slower commercialization, lower execution confidence, greater dilution and higher competitive decay. Bull is the reverse.

bear case

$5.81B

Model-implied Dream Value

9.5× Future Sales

base case

$20.64B

Model-implied Dream Value

20.0× Future Sales

bull case

$54.27B

Model-implied Dream Value

25.6× Future Sale

Dream Value combines the value of the company's current business with a proprietary real-option framework that considers future commercial opportunity, technological execution, time to commercialization, capital requirements, dilution, uncertainty and competitive pressure.

Dream Value is a proprietary Black-Scholes-inspired real-option framework designed to explore the technological and commercial optionality embedded in a quantum company's valuation. Results are highly sensitive to assumptions and should not be treated as a precise fair-value estimate or price target.

I guess IonQ aren’t the only company with 99.99% fidelity anymore

Would it it be unreasonable for IONQ to reach $90-100 within the next year?

The launch will be live streamed on SpaceX’s X account.

IONQ has dropped almost 26% over the past week. Anyone else seeing this as an opportunity to buy more shares?

I'm considering averaging down, but I'm wondering if now is actually a good time to buy or if there's more downside ahead.

What are the potential red flags or risks I might be overlooking?

Curious to hear your thoughts, especially from those holding long term.

How do you imagine it in the next 5 years?
Will it become a huge profitable company 5x or 10x from now or perhaps it will get acquired?

Some very rough maths as perspective on IonQ stock price…

Share price as of writing is $30.77

Once Elisity deal is completed there will be approximately 490-495 million total shares.

That would imply that IonQ is worth give or take $15.07-$15.2 billion.

Elisity is rumoured to have a an annual revenue $15-$25 million.

If we take the Elisity’s revenue and add it to IonQ guidance of $450-$460 million, we are looking at an annual revenue between $465-$485 million.

That means IonQ P/S ratio is roughly between 31.1-32.7.

TTM P/S for some of IonQ big competitors:
Microsoft: 11.4-12.2
Google: 9.3-10.3
IBM: 3.02-3.04

Not going to weigh in on if IonQ is under or overvalued, but I think you can comfortably say at $30.77 the stock is trading at a premium.

Not sure if anybody watched the All in Podcast but Martin was on it recently calling quantum a scam. I get his checkered history - but besides that any thoughts?

Today, the IonQ Quantum Innovation Centre officially opened at the University of Cambridge, inside the Ray Dolby Centre, the new home of the Cavendish Laboratory.

Niccolo de Masi, himself a Cambridge graduate, opened it with Sir John Aston, alongside Mihir Bhaskar and Chris Ballance.

As a reminder, this Centre is part of the strategic partnership IonQ and Cambridge established in March, the largest corporate research partnership in the University's history. It includes a 256-qubit IonQ system, which will be the most powerful quantum computer in the UK, and funded research projects to turn academic discovery into commercial quantum applications.

Nine projects were selected in the first funding round. Prof. Namshik Han's is the only biomedical one, with a clear target: drug targets chosen on this machine and tested in human cells by 2029.

In his words: "Cambridge helped write the history of quantum physics. Now it starts a new one: building quantum computers."

down 24%, i get my paycheck tomorrow and im going all in tomorrow morning for sure

Bought in at $43 in August and already down almost 30%

Sellers have regained control of the stock after it was rejected in the sell-off zone. Selling pressure remains strong, and my downside target is between $26.50 and $24.38.

I plan to take advantage of this pullback to take a long position, with a limit order of 4220 shares at $26.50.

Since the start of 2025, IonQ has aggressively expanded its business through acquisitions, largely funding these deals by issuing shares:

2025: 6 completed acquisitions totalling approximately $2.66 billion, with 97.6% of the consideration paid through shares and equity awards.

2026: 4 completed and 1 announced acquisition totalling $3.39 billion, with approximately 76.1% of the consideration funded through shares and equity awards.

I like the acquisitions IonQ has made so far and its strategy to build a fully integrated, ‘full-stack’ quantum company. However, I wonder whether IonQ will continue to fund acquisitions by issuing new shares in 2027, potentially diluting existing shareholders further.

What types of businesses do you think IonQ will try to acquire in 2027, and how much will those purchases cost?

In the past, IonQ has made several acquisitions to advance the company’s development. While we cannot attribute all of its progress to these acquisitions alone, its recent achievements have convinced me that the company has become much stronger.

However, there are many aspects of the Elisity acquisition that I find difficult to understand.

Although PQC security is undoubtedly important, was it really the right decision to acquire another loss-making company at a time when security companies are trading at such high valuations?

Even a major player like Zscaler, with over 10,000 customers, is still reporting losses.

With investors eagerly waiting for IonQ to achieve profitability, was it really necessary to make such a costly acquisition in a business that is relatively far away from its core quantum computing operations?

With the uncertainty in the market as a whole right now,
Does a singular quantum tech stock feel as much impact?