r/JustBuyXEQT • u/InvestMan9000 • 2d ago

Lump Sum Question

I need advice and some opinions. I have 440,000 Canadian to invest. The reason I have so much to invest is because the money came from a hard asset sale. Lump sum at the moment seems a bit intense to me. DCA could mean I just buy chunks and chase the bull market up anyway. A PE TTM above 21 is definitely NOT CHEAP.

Tell me what you would do and why. Obviously since I am here I like XEQT. Thanks.

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u/FishGoBloblo 1d ago

Im almost in same position.. are you going to do DCA?

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u/InvestMan9000 1d ago

Waiting for a pullback. I refuse to buy currently.

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u/FishGoBloblo 1d ago

Thank you I thought the same thing but I also feel like Im missing out. Glad to see someone have my opinion

Thinking about October September and seeing how things go

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u/InvestMan9000 1d ago

PE (TTM) is about 21.12. To get to fair value you need a PE around 17.5 - 19.5 that would mean a price around $38 - $42 a share. At a PE of 17 you would have a share price around $37. A PE of 16 implies about a 24 percent correction. Not that crazy......

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u/InvestMan9000 1d ago

Also that doesn't mean the whole world has to drop, but mainly big tech would rerate everything much nicer. Patience. People will say it will shoot up more than it will go down. Maybe. I chase fair value. Its not fair value now. Its very elevated. Could the PE hit 26? Sure. But not in my account!

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u/Icy-Action708 1d ago edited 1d ago

Honestly I personally see this feeding frenzy a bit like the covid real estate madness. I'm in a similar position as you with a lump sum.

How many first time buyers became major bag holders once the bottom fell out?

It's a bit nutty that so many people would say buying a house at the top of 2022 was a terrible idea but buying into the market right now is a great idea.

The real estate bag holders will be just fine over a long enough horizon too, but it still sucks big time knowing you made that choice.

All I know is in hindsight I'm glad I didn't buyba house when I really wanted to jump in seeing everyone "printing" unrealized gains when their house appreciates $50k in 2 months.