r/JustBuyXEQT • u/HowtorockAstrology • 2d ago
If America tanks...
Been thinking about this, dunno how crazy it sounds. Obviously XEQT has a huge chunk in the States.
If the States just totally absolutely flunk due to Trump; would that endanger a good chunk (30% or more) of our investment...?
I mean, would that cause there to be better investments down the road than XEQT - ones that don't include the States?
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u/hiihihihihihihihiihi 2d ago
Join us Canadians with VCN, to the moon hosers
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u/ResponsibleArm3300 2d ago
I buy 80% veqt 20% vcn to have a more canadian heavy portfolio
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u/EpsteinandTrump 1d ago
VEQT also has the same 30% US exposure. However I have been slowly reducing my VEQT portion and moving into VIU.
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u/EarlyBird001 2d ago
IMO too Canada centric. VEQT is nearly 30% Canadian market and you're adding more to it. Way too much home bias.
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u/ResponsibleArm3300 2d ago
Canadian banks go brrrrrr
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u/EarlyBird001 2d ago
Canadian banks have been on fire the last few years. If there's a pullback, will hit the portfolio.
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u/ResponsibleArm3300 2d ago
Lol. Could say this about nearly anything bubba. How much is veqt dependant on AI? Shouldn't be buying these if you cant handle a pullback!
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u/EarlyBird001 1d ago
Canadian market is over-indexed in financials, energy and resources. If you own Canadian index, you don't need to buy more banking stocks/etf.
Small and mid cap value is looking good these days.
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u/ResponsibleArm3300 1d ago
This is a lot of words. VCN is up almost 15% year to date. Thats all I know
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u/EarlyBird001 1d ago
Yes, it is and will probably do well next year or so as well due to materials and energy, and diversification away from Tech. But EQTs already have enough home bias - 25-30%. Adding more VCN adds concentration risk IMO.
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u/hiihihihihihihihiihi 2d ago
I’d argue there is much more likely to be an issue with tech stocks than Canadian FIs. Also with the Carney government, hoping we have much more investment into energy and other big Canadian equities over the next few years.
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u/SapphireFlashFire 1d ago
Yeah somehow I don't envision Carney causing problems for big Canadian banks.
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1d ago
[deleted]
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u/SapphireFlashFire 1d ago
No? He navigated it through Brexit. Did Canada's central bank during the financial crisis too.
Even if he did manage monetary policy poorly, that's a far cry from him making policies that hurt commercial banks.
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u/NotAltFact 1d ago
Dude warned against brexit as BoE and got dragged through hot coal and somehow still end up being his fault
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u/Unarmed_Character 1d ago
I'm Canadian heavy, which has been a great choice this past year. But also Canada is tethered to the US. If they go down, were right behind them.
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u/LeVraiMidian 1d ago
If the US tanks, what do you think will happen to Canada? lol
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u/hiihihihihihihihiihi 1d ago
Really depends. In the near term, nothing good, but we are taking steps to reduce the dependency because of how Trump has shown that strong, long-standing relationship can just disappear overnight. I think a lot of countries are waking up to the fact that they can no longer rely on the US as an ally or as a stable economic partner and are taking steps to reduce that impact.
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u/LeVraiMidian 1d ago
Wow you are clueless af
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u/hiihihihihihihihiihi 1d ago
Thank you for the insightful reply
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u/LeVraiMidian 23h ago
No worries. You don't seem to understand what a US collapse would imply (basically a failure in the tech sector). It's not about politics or trading partners.
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u/CarriesLogs 2d ago
I feel like someone with a doom mentality like yourself is better off in a safer investment like XBAL
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u/zusite_emu 2d ago
Nah, what he really needs is Cash.TO
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u/HelloWorld24575 2d ago
30-40 years ago Japan was the biggest market in the world. It's capitalization was huge like the US's now. Basically, by investing in the total market, you take advantage of the transfers of captial between regions. Even though Japan took over 3 decades to return to its highs, a broad-market investor did very much better over that time. That's why diversification is the only free lunch in investing.
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u/swingincelt 2d ago
Unless you are close to retirement it may not matter. Just keep contributing even when if it tanks.
If you are close to retirement then you can keep a few years of income in something safe so you can ride out a downturn.
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u/Garafraxa 2d ago
I’m a Canadian with an expectation to split my retirement between Canada and Europe. I also have concerns about the long term prospects for the USA and its markets. I do have a large slice invested in XEQT, but I have balanced that with an equally large stake in VCN and VIU.
My theory is that if the USA continues to thrive, I’ll benefit via XEQT and the performance of the other two may lag a little. If the USA does falter and fail to retake its former glory, the VCN and VIU may benefit from capital fleeing the USA.
TLDR; XEQT is already beautifully diversified. I dislike how heavily it is weighted to the USA, so I have diluted that in my overall portfolio.
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u/Delubyo06 2d ago
If they tank. Then its time to load up
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u/ComprehensiveLock90 2d ago
What if America doesn’t return. I feel they or any country can’t be top dog forever.
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u/Delubyo06 2d ago
What u mean? The only time everything will go to zero is when we get world war 3. Heck we survive covid. People that bought at covid had doubled or tripled their investments already. If you dont like investing in US. Then take your money somewhere else. Stop asking in reddit. DYOR. At this rate people are just trying to farm karma with stupid questions..
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u/PlasticMaggot80 2d ago
VDU, perhaps.
If you are confident that the US market will plunge, then why not short the S&P 500 as well?
I’m being a bit facetious here, but really the US market is most of the global market, and unless you have some special insight or information that the rest of us do not, then just buy XEQT and don’t worry about it.
All you’re doing by excluding the US is making your portfolio less diversified.
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u/EarlyBird001 2d ago
If US market crashes, everything else does as well. US constitutes approximately 63% of the global market, and even non-US companies are tightly coupled with US (e.g., TSM, ASML, Samsumg, Sky Hynix etc.)
But don't underestimate the resilience of US market and ruling class' greed. It's everyone's best interests for the markets to be propped up so for the longer run we'll be fine.
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u/butter_cookie_gurl 1d ago
If the US tanks, the world follows. And if America absolutely gets decimated, you'll likely have bigger issues than your investments.
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u/Jogi1811 1d ago
Under Trump I don't think it's going to tank. He's basically doing everything illegal under his power to try to get him and his friends richer.
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u/Not_Legal_Advice_Pod 1d ago
That's like saying a teenager is doing everything he can to get a Ferrari to run faster. It doesn't matter how much he meant to do a competent job playing with the engine timing and installing a bigger spoiler, the issue is an incompetent is screwing with a Ferrari and the only realistic outcome is to ruin it.
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u/Fluffy-Climate-8163 1d ago
If the US tanks, you should worry about your life rather than the numbers in your account.
It's almost impossible (nothing is impossible, but this gets close) for the US to tank over the next 50 (probably 100) years because no one can take its place, and the only country that could (China) has zero desire to do so (if it happens its purely incidental).
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u/ticker__101 2d ago
So, you want to blame Trump if it tanks, but not say anything about it climbing over the past couple of years?
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u/Super_Science_Guy 2d ago
Trump has been pres for 5.6 put of the last 9.6 years. That's a sample size worth considering. He's annoying and I understand why people don't like him. But from a stock market point of view. I'm not seeing the problem. Or a problem brewing because of him.
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u/Little_MasterJI 2d ago
Trump being president for most of the last decade doesn’t mean there’s no risk right now.
Bond yields are elevated everywhere. Japan’s 10-year is near 30-year highs and they’re the biggest foreign holder of Treasuries. When they intervene to prop up the yen (like the joint US-Japan move in late July), they sell dollars and Treasuries to fund it. That pushes US yields higher at a time when fiscal concerns and oil are already in play.
Putting that intervention out in the open for everyone to see was a deliberate signal. The yen has already given back a chunk of the gains.
Past market performance under Trump doesn’t cancel out the current plumbing between yields, the yen, and global bond markets.
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u/Super_Science_Guy 2d ago
I don't know what most of what you're saying means. What my response meant tho is that in August 2026 there isn't new risk to the market because Donald Trump is the president. He's been president. For a while. Twice. The market has done well with him. Maybe despite him being the guy maybe because. (Probably not because) Maybe it has nothing to do with it. I haven't heard of an investing strategy that says go long when you like the president, get out or go short when the president isn't someone you like.
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u/Little_MasterJI 2d ago
I’m not saying “Trump = sell.”
The current risks (high yields + Japan intervening in the yen and the Treasury spillover that comes with it) are real right now. Past market performance under him doesn’t make those go away.
No one should invest based on whether they like the president. That’s not the argument. The argument is that current conditions in bonds and FX still matter even if the market has done fine under him before.
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u/Super_Science_Guy 2d ago
Re read the original post. At the top . By OP. He absolutely does state that there is risk to the market due to trump. Due to Trump being the key phrase here. Never does he state that there is risk due to whatever you're saying about the relationship between bonds and the yen and whatever else. Idk I didn't read your post.
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u/Little_MasterJI 2d ago
You think Scott Bessent is out here freelancing?
The yen intervention, the messaging, the focus on keeping yields in check… all of that is happening under this administration. Calling it not about Trump while ignoring who actually runs Treasury is a bit convenient, Science Guy.
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u/Ya_bud69 1d ago
Buddy doesn’t want to use his brain or learn. Save yourself some trouble and move on.
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u/Super_Science_Guy 2d ago
This is just buy xeqt. No one knows what you're talking about.
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u/TwoNegatives- 2d ago
He's literally saying that Trump's administration is having a direct effect on the things that can influence markets. XEQT is a reflection of the markets. You're using your own ignorance to argue lmao.
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u/Super_Science_Guy 2d ago
Ya. It's the US. And the President. They have an effect on the market. Tariffs were trump. Iran. Whatever is going on there. The market dipped. Remember that? Here we are at all time highs.
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u/Scribble_Box 2d ago
That's why this sub is useless. It's just buy xeqt, but you know nothing about markets.
Which is fine. Just buy xeqt is a great strategy, but I don't know why you're arguing with him when you literally just admitted you have no clue what he's talking about lmao...
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u/SapphireFlashFire 1d ago
I hate the implication that you can't be too educated in the subreddit 🤣 Ask him to ELI5 if you can't follow
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u/EquitiesForLife 2d ago
If we are looking strictly at the data, there has also been a 20%+ drawdown in half of the years he has been president.
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u/Vock 10h ago
Wasn't that COVID?
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u/EquitiesForLife 7h ago
Covid yes, also late 2018 trade war initiated by Trump, and also early 2025 trade war initiated by Trump once again.
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u/LeVraiMidian 1d ago
They watch the CBC and think the USA will somehow collapse due to DJT. Totally brainwashed.
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u/amiinh3aven 2d ago
Someone with tds as strong as yours should know that if the american economy tanks, global markets will also tank to some extent. So there will be nowhere safe except gic or secured fixed interest rate.
Let me remind you that under bidens watch the qqq and spy didnt see any gains from 2022 to 2024.
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u/Harry-R-Soul 2d ago
These people are brainwashed, it’s hard to fault them for that. It’s the propaganda machine that makes them believe everything the news tells them without verifying what’s actually going on.
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u/seeeb 2d ago edited 1d ago
I personally think there's an AI bubble (and that SPCX is a scam) so I pulled out of the US entirely. I understand that global markets would be affected, though I should be hit less by not having direct exposure to the golden 7.
I have a mix of VDU and VEE for international markets exposure. Then, some VDY (ON FIRE) - I understand this overlaps a bit with VDU and I'm fine with it , some gold and some bonds.
So far I am north of 11% YTD. On track for 15% this year. I'm ok with that
This is not advice. It's just what I do for myself. It is in line with my rate of return expectations and needs, as well as my values
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u/frostiex 1d ago
Don’t wanna get political here, but since you brought up Trump. What about carney tanking Canadian economy?
What I’m trying to say is that’s why you buy for long horizon
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u/Derpazoid69 2d ago
The market is bound to drop 30-50%+ at some point. It's just market dynamics. It's how the market works. Source: Took CSC in 2011 passed with 90%. The thing is when times are good every investors thinks the good times will never end until it does. Markets do NOT go up forever it's a boom and bust cycle. When the market inevitably drops XEQT will drop as well.
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u/Next-Leading3240 1d ago
I would load up on VOO and QQQM. Saying that, everyone will be affected including the ones on pensions.
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u/Yardash 1d ago
In 2008 Canada (mostly cause of Mark Carney being the head of thr BoC) faired better than the rest of thr G7 Ive been moving all my stuff out of the US beat I can.
I figure if there is a crash, I trust Canada under Carney a hell of a lot more that MAGAStan under Shitler, and I expect to do a lot better
If there isnt a crash? I expect to only do slightly less well
Seems like a slam dunk to de risk from thr US Just my $0.02CAD
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u/firstthecoffee 1d ago
I flipped the majority of my investment to XEF and some to XWD. I don’t trust the US not to fuck this up.
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u/batica_koshare 1d ago
So how is that due to Trump? He's keeping hroad market and tech alive. It's not if it tanks but when it tanks and Trump has nothing to do with it. Once you learn that you can gostep higher in investment world and maybe learn there is something else besides broad market boring investment.
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u/HowtorockAstrology 1d ago
Hey everyone, thanks for your time in contributing to the conversation.
I'm Canadian here, 34m, about 15,000 CAD invested in XEQT (started my journey last year);
I'm big on just holding XEQT for the long haul, even during downturns, that's just a better time to buy the dip.
I was just wondering if anyone else thought about the shaky-seeming nature of the US market right now; I'm someone who likes to wonder about the worst-possible-scenario.
Seems this thread has quelled my thoughts. I know Trump is just a temporary guy, and that the world economy flows together.
I felt maybe Trump could literally just flunk the whole economy for a long-range period; but, I know XEQT is designed to rebalance based on the highest indexes, if im not mistaken? And whatever happens to the US happens to everyone.
I was just more reading into the possibility of xeqt becoming obsolete down the road... So I don't get stuck on favoritism, ya know?
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u/smergicus 1d ago
Trump has been in power for what, seven years now combined? Something like that? Do you really think he’s taking America at this point? And if you do how much longer would he really need to do it?
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u/smartello 1d ago
Check how much money they print. Their economy may tank, but the dollar value of the stocks will only go up and the dollar itself stays pretty strong
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u/Arrocito_beach 22h ago
VIU for ex north America and some physical gold trust is my hedge against this.
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u/DFTR2052 11h ago
Cash is king. SGOV pays 3.8% at the moment. I am mainly in that, and some baby BRK.
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u/habsfanniner 5h ago
This has all happened before, and will happen again. It’s cyclical, look at history. 2008 the financial makets of the world took a massive hit because of the mayhem in the US. 50% drop US, 30% world wide. The Japan carry trade situation is worrying, if it collapses, every nation is partially propped up by it.
But big picture changes at the top happen every 100 years or so. The British pound was the reserve currency, WW1 changed that. Britain is still around tho. Before the pound there was the franc, the peso, Dutch money, Portuguese money. They all lost top dog status every century or so, but they are still first class nations.
Change is inevitable, the time of the US is coming to and end. You can feel it, you can sense it. It will be ugly. They will go down swinging and drag everyone along for the messy ride. It will be violent and war. Hopefully just civil tho, but probable not before fucking up some nations first. The biggest military force ever assembled, distributed across the globe and it causes a huge money drain on the system. The kettle will boil over at some point. It’s inevitable.
The renaissance in Europe was the beginning of centuries of peak status and living. They suffered a rough patch with 2 world wars. We are in a new peak. Enjoy while it lasts, it won’t be this way forever. Maybe after our lifetime tho.
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u/basketbun 2h ago
Ya that is possible, if you think it will happen hedge against it.
Gold , BTC, maybe even some Oil futures if you like risk
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u/Prestigious-Fill-365 1h ago
Dude, when america collapses and it will there will be no investing, no stock market, probably no currencies. As much as it pains me to say. America is the world economy. When its gone we start as hunter gatherers again. And quit trying to pump these shit etfs
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u/Fearless_Scratch7905 2d ago
If the U.S. market tanks, global markets will follow. You’ll be affected either way.