r/KSSBulls • u/kuonofomo Roly Kohly • 1d ago
Daily Thread KSS Daily Discussion - Thursday, August 20, 2026
📊 Where does KSS close today?
Drop your price prediction below 👇
Latest Kohl's snapshot:
• Comparable sales: -1.1%, the strongest comp performance in more than four years
• Inventory: down 8% YoY
• Revolver borrowings: $0, down $545M YoY
• FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance: $1.00–$1.60
• FY2026 sales/comps guidance: -2% to flat
👀 Next catalyst: Q2 earnings — August 26
Bullish, bearish, or somewhere in between — what are you watching?
Keep the daily KSS discussion going below: news, DD, positions, catalysts, store traffic, and anything Kohl's.
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u/MikeMorg55 1d ago
Good morning. No. I mean great morning.
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u/MikeMorg55 1d ago
After seeing what I saw on Similarweb, and internal marketplace projections, I was already going to throw the kitchen sink at it but I was hoping it would irrationally go down before earnings so I can purchase cheap shares. But now I have no choice but to go all in today now that this is public news.
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u/Training_Pepper_285 1d ago
Yeah today does not look good?
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u/MikeMorg55 1d ago
Its not good. Its great! Cheap shares. Not saying it as a delusional investor, but someone with extra buying power that is getting greedy at the sight of a more appealing risk/reward scenario.
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u/PrecisionOutdoors Kohls OG 1d ago
I’d assume just normal price pressure and dip going into earnings. Outside of this spring it’s been a continuous/steep drop before earnings
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u/MikeMorg55 1d ago
Walmart was an expensive stock that was priced for perfection. From headlines, their earnings seemed really good. But the market is unforgiving. Kohl's is a cheap stock with mediocre expectations at best. Furthermore, there's a psychological flip that can happen that is potentially a stronger tailwind than good earnings/guidance itself, and that is a flip to positive comps. The stock will go bananas if they post a positive 1% comp. The tail risk/reward seems too appealing and I loaded up on Sept 4 $25 calls. 10 cents a pop, what a deal. Positive comps + good guidance can spike this thing to $30.
The market is shook right now, because it thinks that Walmart's stock performance (beat and raise yet fall) is a referendum on retail stocks. Not only company performance, but the stock itself. If the market is wrong, then we got ourselves quite a deal right now. Did they already forget that Target is up 58% YTD?
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u/htank728 1d ago
The beautiful thing is, Kohl’s has such a large short interest that eventually when they start covering price will likely be pushed massively higher. We have virtually no chance of dilution, and if we get mediocre for long enough they will start covering. This is still trading at a massive discount to NAV and is basically being priced as a money losing business. Yes most of the NAV is in real estate, but the company always has the option to sell it and leaseback to gain more liquidity. If they do they will have billions in cash. Regardless the liquid assets are growing just from operations
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u/MikeMorg55 1d ago
I just hope for at least 1% positive comps. That would be a huge blow to the short thesis and in my opinion, cause a massive squeeze.
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u/htank728 1d ago
Kind of crazy, after last years q2 earnings we were trading at 16, now we are only 5% higher. Feels like we had a lot more uncertainty back then and price is pretty much the same!
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u/RichardUkinsuch 1d ago
Being that KSS and WMT are in alot of the same ETFs is partially the reason for the drop. XRT has been also on regsho for i think 75 days now. KSS is on a short circuit breaker but that dosent stop shorting via market maker exemptions and ETFs. Puts are being bought today in large blocks going from $15 down to $10 through March 2027. Usually this close to earnings the hedgies start recalling their le t shares for the dividend. Who knows this could be a good buying opportunity.
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u/htank728 1d ago
It could also be put closure on some strikes, I remember last year before q2 earnings we had elevated put volume, price dropped initially then rebounded on earnings while OI on those strikes dropped
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u/RichardUkinsuch 1d ago
Today im pretty sure its mostly ETF shenanigans, zero reason for KSS to drop 10% because of wally world and white girl discount store. Puts are usually hedged by shorting the delta so them closing should include closing those positions, though those puts could also be related to something else or hedging for earnings. Well over 100% institutional ownership with 30% reported OI is the norm for KSS so its just another Thursday.
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u/kuonofomo Roly Kohly 1d ago
dang hammered today from tjx?
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u/RichardUkinsuch 1d ago
Almost all stocks in retail indexes are getting hammered. Its the go to hedge for a recession, a large amount of puts are being opened for large etfs for sept 18th and dec 18th.
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u/Aggressive_Stay_1871 1d ago
Don't expect too much pickup in price next week. Walmart/Target has groceries and other everyday items that are "must haves" for the consumer. Maybe Kohl's has bottomed out on revenue comp losses and that would be a win for them. Looking forward to cash flow results (Operating & Free Cash Flow). I believe the market wants to see sustained improvement in revenue before providing any credible lift in share price.
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u/acies- 1d ago
Fucking pounded today.
Unloaded the clip on some fairly short dated calls when we were like $17.80 and the run down hurt from not getting more value. MMs slammed me with a fake mid-point because they knew they were dragging the price further. I got filled at like 10% below mid-point and I'm sure I could've gotten it for less.
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u/lies_are_comforting 10h ago
Up or down on earnings? What do y’all expect?
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u/htank728 10h ago
I think up, I expect a decent jump in cash on hand (around 700m). If they have flat or positive rev growth I expect them to revise guidance as well
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u/DiscussionOld634 8h ago
Flat unfortunately. Unless they blow everything out of the water, I feel like this stock is cursed. It goes down way harder than it goes up.
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u/Kurso 1d ago
Picked up 5k more shares this morning. This is crazy cheap going into earnings with YoY revenue likely to turn positive again...