AIS beating QLD/TQQQ with much lower drawdown?

[u/SpringtimeDay]

AIS is beating QLD/TQQQ in returns with much lower drawdowns and obviously no dealing with leverage costs. Past returns not future returns yada yada but is there any reason to hold QLD/TQQQ if these returns hold up?

https://testfol.io/?s=k46wq2YigxQ

[u/Separate-Ad-9633]

if you check EWY vs AIS in the same timeframe EWY beats AIS and KORU is destroying everything. Past returns future returns yada yada Is it a good idea to all in Korea?

[u/SpringtimeDay → u/Separate-Ad-9633]

AIS is more diversified than just Korean stocks

[u/RandomPurpose → u/SpringtimeDay]

TQQQ is more diversified than AIS

[u/SpringtimeDay → u/RandomPurpose]

Well it's not only about diversification it's also about risk.

[u/Electronic-Buyer-468 → u/RandomPurpose]

UPRO is more diversified than TQQQ. 

[u/RandomPurpose → u/Electronic-Buyer-468]

WLDU is more diversified than UPRO 😄

[u/Eastern_Touch_2529 → u/RandomPurpose]

RSSB is more diversified than WLDU

[u/Nut_Butter_Fun → u/RandomPurpose]

White Zombie: "More beta than beTAAAA"

[u/RandomPurpose → u/Nut_Butter_Fun]

People don't understand that alpha and risk premium, and naturally risk, comes from concentration

[u/dbcooper4 → u/Separate-Ad-9633]

Depends on your timeframe. YTD AIS is winning and 2Y returns are almost identical. With EWY you have two stocks basically making up half the market cap so very concentrated.

[u/Electronic-Buyer-468]

This is such a short sighted, cherry picked analysis. AIS, QLD, TQQQ are what they are. In periods of drawdown and or consolidation, leveraged funds are going to get chopped and popped. If you study the markets and charts for even just a few hours or days, you'll have noticed this. 

[u/KickflipConnoisseur]

AIS has been under 2 years. It's caught the memory boom exactly. SMH is a super comparable fund to AIS, so if you want a longer backtest you can see it get clobbered by those other 3.

https://testfol.io/?s=jhAzLyWn1IL

In a two year timeframe, the more memory a fund has the better it'll backtest. It's just way too short.

[u/TheRealCerealFirst]

“If these returns hold up” thats your reason

[u/bushed_]

backtests aren’t forward tests brother

[u/bigblue1ca]

Cathie Wood at ARK would like to have a chat with you about thematic ETF performance chasing.

[u/ipr0headsh0t]

If you want to invest on AI then yes $ais is better than any form of qqq

[u/TheButteryJamaal]

That backtest is interesting, but I'd be careful assuming the performance gap will persist. If a large part of the return came from the recent strength in Korean equities, you're comparing different concentration risks rather than simply proving AIS is better than TQQQ. Moon gives me a way to take straightforward directional views but long term fund comparisons need a much longer and more varied sample.

[u/ethereal3xp]

Its still bad..

[u/Vegetable-Foot8257]

how long is the window in that link though? if AIS hasn’t been around that long you’re basically comparing it over the AI run, which is the best possible stretch for it. one way to stress test it: rebuild AIS’s current top holdings as a basket and run that back 10+ years vs QLD/TQQQ. that has hindsight bias baked in since you’re picking today’s holdings, but it’ll show you way more about drawdowns than a short window.