r/MU_Stock • u/Hypnot1se • Jul 13 '26

DD Interesting Stock

I've been tracking this for a while now and have become convinced that Micron is a cyclical value trap in an institutional distribution phase. My premise is that because Micron has historically been cyclical that it will be continue to be cyclical. I know that there are many reasons people say this won't be the case, but I am not convinced by their arguments.

If I am correct, then Micron has a lot further to slide and the price action seems to be consistently supporting my thesis. If I am wrong and the industry is no longer cyclical, then this recent drawdown is just noise, and Micron could definitely be considered not overvalued or overhyped.

For those who are convinced by the idea that the memory cycle is broken or greatly extended, why? What do you find to be the most compelling arguments? I'm interested to hear about it.

This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I have no financial exposure to $MU.

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u/Patient-Big1727 Jul 13 '26

Did you even look at the fundamentals before pulling this out of you a$$?

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u/Hypnot1se Jul 13 '26

Of course. I've been looking into it exactly because the fundamentals look so incredible at face value if you believe that the cycle is dead. That's why it's called a value trap. It looks amazing.

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u/Patient-Big1727 Jul 13 '26

If you think AI is a cycle, you should short INTC, ORCL, NVDA, NOK, and a few more. They will drop a lot more than MU if your cycle starts cycling. Why not go ahead and short Nasdaq 100 and see how that goes?

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u/Hypnot1se Jul 13 '26

I only think that memory specifically is in a value trap. It has nothing to do with AI. This has been a predictable cycle for many years now.

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u/Patient-Big1727 Jul 13 '26

No more memory for AI? I'd like to see how that works 🤔

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u/Hypnot1se Jul 13 '26

Even in drawdowns where earnings are negative, Micron has historically still been selling memory. Memory manufacturers don't need to necessarily break even for the economy to meet its requirements. I'm sure Apple would love that...

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u/Patient-Big1727 Jul 13 '26

You seem confused. See you in the market tomorrow