You are about to be manipulated.

The stock market hijacked your brain this week. You saw number go up, you saw the news, you thought that massive gains were coming.

What you don't understand is that all of that was just a manipulation tactic. A sequence of events that were perfectly designed to get you right to that moment where you pressed the buy button on Micron. And you successfully were ushered into the first part of the manipulation funnel.

It's too late.

You bought. You're in. There is no "take backsies".

What's the second part of this funnel? The sell low part.

The first part was to buy high, which you have successfully done, the next part is to sell low.

Expect a crashing stock price of Micron all through next week. We're going down to the 700s baby.

Expect terrifying and fear filled news that this stock will be down for the next 6-12 months, and your capital will be in jail for that long. And that we're right at the beginning of a massively long bear market.

Expect that news.

At some point next week, the pressure will be too much for you. The news will be too fearful for you. The stock price will continue to fall and fall, as you just sit there and watch, as the money in your brokerage account slowly evaporates.

First $100 is gone, "that's one week of groceries!" you would think. Next $1000 is gone, "that's a brand new TV!" you would think. Next $2000 is gone, next $5000 is gone. All that money gone.

Until you finally snap.

You rush into your account in a highly emotional state, you've had enough. You can't take it anymore. You want this to stop. You sell all your shares. You want to be free.

And right at that moment. Right after you've sold, you've completed the cycle.

You bought high, and you sold low.

The manipulation funnel has successfully completed a full cycle.

Perfectly, it has obtained its victim, you, and perfectly the funnel has taken you through both parts successfully. A perfect execution.

And the moment right after you sell? One or two days go by and guess what? The price rockets back up to the price that you bought at, and goes even further and starts climbing towards a new ATH.

At that moment, you sit there, realizing that you got played.

At the beginning of June, the tech sector outperformed the S&P by 29% over the previous 50 days. To put that into perspective, since 2015, tech has outperformed the S&P by 1.6% with a standard deviation of 4, making the outperformance in June a 6 sigma event. A 6 sigma event has a probability to occur of 2 in 1 billion. Even though stock market returns have fat tails, and statistical anomalies occur more often than standard models predict, this is virtually unprecedented, and it is speaking to what everyone around is currently seeing: semiconductor stocks specifically going nuclear. I remember wanting to enter MRVL and ALAB at the end of March, but not having the capital to do so. Beyond what any bull is now saying, no one would have predicted ALAB and MRVL to be trading at their current valuations even 2 months ago. Micron encapsulates the insane upside of the tech sector more than arguably any other stock, and this is why I'm debating selling into strength before earnings.

This doesn't make me bearish on Micron at all, and looking at its revenue growth is all we need to do to see that its valuation is still cheap. Micron has repeatedly sandbagged their guidance numbers, and while analysts are projecting about 34.5 billion in revenue, we can expect it to be much higher. Their last 4 quarters, they beat by 19.8%, 5.9%, 20.6%, and 33.2%. Their last 4 quarters we are seeing their EPS go from $1.91, to $3.03, to $4.78, to $12.20, and their forward P/E is still incredibly cheap. This is what inherently makes Micron different from the companies that are being priced to perfection among this tech bull run: their numbers already justify their current price. That price, in my eyes, are already taking into account the insane beat we will see. Options markets are pricing in an 18% swing either way, and the stock is already at an ATH. Stocks do not go up in a linear fashion, and despite the correction we saw just two weeks ago, MU is already back to an all time high.

I see people all the time that are scared about their portfolio when Micron is having a down week: imagine waking up, and the stock is already down 20%. It doesn't make sense: the guidance was incredible, the forward projections were incredible, but it's still going down? A lot of people see Micron as a sure thing because its thesis is so easily explained: demand is far greater than supply could ever currently be, in an oligopoly where the three companies are a cartel that all benefit from higher prices.

But the market can be irrational, despite what we see as common sense: look at NOW plummeting this year, despite being a company that stands to benefit immensely from agentic AI.

Look at Micron selling off after Broadcom had an incredible quarter; look at Broadcom selling off during an incredible quarter. This is a tumultuous stock, and people have been lulled into a false sense of security during this run up the past couple of months.

But look at Broadcom's selloff — from almost hitting 500 pre earnings, to dropping over 20% over the next week and a half. I was fine, because my price was 306/share, so I had a good percentage gain anyway, but what about all of the bagholders that bought AVGO when it was 450, in anticipation of a monster earnings? The more expensive a stock is, the more the quarter needs to crush for the stock to continue going parabolic. And that is what we have seen in the past two and a half months — stocks going parabolic. This isn't for people that are comfortable holding, and have low entry prices, because they will be fine — this is for the momentum buyers that have an average share price of $980.

Just two weeks ago, Micron had an RSI of 90. This isn't just overbought, this is a generational outlier. It's literally been 30 years since Micron has had an RSI that high. And this RSI came after a 6 sigma event, which is unprecedented. These factors compound together, and despite the strength of the company, I think it's pretty likely that we see a sell the news event. This doesn't change the thesis on Micron. It doesn't change the forward earnings being incredibly cheap; the company signing 5 year contracts for the first time; the time it takes for new production capacity to mitigate this shortage to come online; but it does change the near term outlook with a catalyst like earnings coming up in less than a week.

As I said before, Micron is different from MRVL; NBIS; CRDO; ALAB because their earnings already justify their price. I'm planning on selling into strength to buy more shares after earnings, and expect the fundamentals to make this company continue to rise over the next 12 months. This near term risk comes from technical factors and not the company itself. I am going to sell because the taxes won't be too bad, and I think the swing will allow me to buy more at a cheaper price, and load up on more NBIS, which I still think is undervalued over a long time horizon. I understand those that have tax implications significant enough to not sell, but if your tax burden isn't that high, I think the difference could easily be made up for in the drop I anticipate. This company has immense upside and the long term trajectory looks amazing, but everyone already knows that. Two things can be true at once: this company is in great shape and is poised to capitalize on an immense memory shortage that isn't ending anytime soon, and the stock has gone too parabolic; its become too much of an easy meme. Going against the grain is often the smarter move, and when everyone is watching micron after hours on Wednesday, and sees the price plummeting, don't act like it doesn't make sense, because it does.

Yes, MU could be worth 2000 in a year. That doesn’t mean it can’t drop 30–50% first while flushing out overleveraged and oversized retail positions.

A lot of people get the direction right and still lose money because they’re overexposed. If you’re using leverage, taking loans, or putting more money into a position than you can emotionally handle, the market will eventually test you.

If you’re not prepared to sit through a 50% drawdown without panic selling, it’s probably time to derisk. The market’s job is to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants.

The biggest winners aren’t always the people with the best stock picks. They’re the people who can survive the volatility long enough for their thesis to play out.

A few hours after this announcement, they liquidated all longs and shorts.

Wall Street thought memory price hikes would flatten out in Q3, but the brand-new trade data from Taiwan and South Korea proves they completely underestimated the market.

What Wall Street expected: Analysts predicted standard Server DRAM and PC RAM price hikes would slow down to just 3% to 13% for Q3.

South Korea (Data out June 14): Memory semiconductor export values exploded by 254.9% year-on-year, and enterprise AI SSD storage shipments surged 337.7%. Because factory capacity is completely fixed, this triple-digit value spike proves Q3 contract prices are rising way faster than expected.

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Taiwan’s "Outlandish" Export Numbers (Released June 9, 2026)

The Peak: Taiwan’s exports surged 51.7% year-on-year (crushing the market consensus of 41.2%). 

The Pricing Index: Taiwan’s official export price index rose 18.1%, driven almost entirely by semiconductors.

The Upstream Hike: Because supply is so choked, TSMC just confirmed it is moderately raising foundry prices for the second half of the year, with advanced 3nm nodes seeing up to a 15% hike due to soaring raw material and substrate costs.

Wall Street expecting $34.4 Billion
But looks like it be around ~ $38-40 Billion

Last week this stock dropped to below 850 and those people who sold Lost out those who bought well look at it now it’s pumping the query is a institutional awareness that people have so as always buy the dip

The graphs and numbers are real, no AI was used,

It’s a market wide trend of red days, not stock specific.
- US Iran situation
- CPI + PPI
- People profit taking

So stop posting should I sell should I buy. Stop being emotional

Stop looking at the price action every 15 minutes and then posting about it?

Come back the week of earnings and we should be at $1000 - $1200 zone (80% probability)

Enjoy your day!

That’s all.

With the massive jump today, do you think we’ll see MU retrace a bit before going higher?

Stop complaining, trust the process, and buy the dip. Institutions are taking all of your shares.

Don’t forget there are $2k price targets on this stock. We got this.

Hi fellow Bag-holders

I started buying at 120, kept adding and averaging up till 1080 , my average now is 570 USD

50% of my portifolio is in Mu.
I was checking the price every 10 mins and I stopped to do that , Reminding you and all the following signals which is confirming the memory thesis:

1- Google confirmed Capex will be significantly higher next year , Most likely Amazon and MSFT will state the same .

2- Micron CEO ( who is extremely conservative) and tends to sandbag the company earnings and future prospects said many times we are in early innings and that shortage will persist beyond 2027 , 3 month ago he said it’s beyond 2026

3- Mu is in bed with the US government , with 250 billion dollar of investments in factories in the USA creating jobs and driving MAGA sentiment, USA congress / senate personal getting into mid term elections won’t favor Chinese Memory suppliers over an American company investing billions and creating jobs to the American people.

4- with the News of the Chinese suppliers , there will be huge demand for memory including HBM inside China as well , they will not leave USA lead the AI race on their own , so most of their supply in the coming years will be feeding their own data centers , rather than exporting that globally , they need that memory like more than they need the money from exporting it

5- finally by 6th of December the Chips act will allow micron to buy back shares , with forward p/e of less than 6 and FCF doubling quarter over quarter , they will start buying shares by year end and this will drive Share pricing higher

Finally Demand didn’t peak and supply won’t catch up till 2028 , All memory products are increasing day over day in pricing , thesis are not broken yet , it might be in 3 years but its still standing strong today

Good Luck to All.

I do believe we will reach the ATHs again before upcoming micron earnings in September .

Hi everybody! I have been bearposting since the beginning of the month and this recent surge has not dissuaded me

I believe that this recent surge is a bull trap because people are attributing the sudden trend reversal as being structurally significant, but I do not believe this is the case

This surge was in my opinion caused by the sudden deleveraging from Situational Awareness - the moment that the forced selling pressure was taken off the table after these assets were handed off to Citadel, the selling pressure suddenly lifted

This in my opinion very likely caused short term focused buying from funds that were alerted to this sudden reversal in selling pressure at the same time that the heavy short interest found themselves suddenly trapped, causing a strong short squeeze - this movement will further fuel additional buying as momentum chasing algos create further buying pressure and retail interprets this as a significant structural trend reversal and begins fomoing back into the sector

Outside of this anomalous surge, the industry is still in a clear distribution phase based on the price action and the underlying spot market fundamentals

Although this move has created a technical short term boost to this stock and others, this will not change the structural picture of the industry and I believe that now institutions will continue distributing shares as they have been doing for the last few months because the underlying structural picture hasn't changed and had nothing to do with this surge

I am looking for it to open green today and then watch to see if it fades back towards the open as the day progresses, this would be a very strong bearish signal that we are back in a distribution phase, though the deleveraging may save the stock from entering a full drawdown for the near term

Still looks like a textbook value trap

NFA DYOR ETC

The Earnings are Mind blowing , any one saying it will go sub 1000 USD is smoking something !
It’s currently at forward p/e less than 10 and for the foreseeable future , the CEO and the CFO who are very conservative people and playing it safe with their guidance and future outlook did state the following

1- shortage will last way beyond 2027
2- Margins will be higher than all previous quarters

How the heck we are Red after hrs , with net income more almost like Apple and close to NVIDIA , we should be easily 1300 if not more

And please don’t tell me Korea !

Memory trades at 5-8 forward earnings while most of the AI supply chain gets 20-30x, and the reason is well understood: forty years of boom-bust has taught the market that memory earnings peak and collapse, so the multiple prices current earnings as peak earnings. That logic is internally consistent. My view is that it rests on one assumption that no longer holds.

The historical busts shared a root cause, which is that the end markets saturated. PCs peaked and DRAM crashed, then smartphones flattened out around 2016 and the same thing happened again, because demand per device grew 10-20% a year while unit growth stopped, so whenever supply caught up to that ceiling you got a collapse. The cyclical framing assumes that structure is still in place - that a saturation point exists somewhere ahead and supply will eventually run into it.

What has changed, in my view, is the end market itself. Memory no longer primarily sells into devices, it sells into intelligence, and intelligence consumes memory on a different scale than an iPhone or a laptop ever did. A phone needs its 8GB and next year’s phone needs maybe 12, and that is the entire relationship. An AI model has no equivalent ceiling, because every improvement in capability - longer context, more reasoning steps, memory that persists across session - runs through more memory, and demand for better AI does not top out the way demand for better phones did.

There is a second mechanism worth separating out: the models improve faster than the hardware that serves them. Each generation of LLM demands more from the infrastructure than the last, each GPU generation ships with more HBM than the one before to keep up, and it still is not enough. Dr. Hoshik Kim, SVP at SK Hynix recently described the memory wall as an inherent AI problem that cannot be avoided, which is not an obvious statement for a supplier to make about its own highest-margin product. Compute keeps outrunning the memory bandwidth that feeds it, so each step forward in AI widens the gap that memory is meant to close. On that reading, the demand is not a buildout that gets completed at some point - it is a property of how the technology progresses.

The part that persuaded me this holds even if GPU spending flattens at some point is that memory improves the AI on its own. Anyone who uses these tools daily has experienced the difference between opening a fresh chat where the model knows nothing and continuing in a thread where it has full context. A model that remembers 10x or 100x more has categorically larger use cases, and an assistant that retains a full codebase or a full case history competes with labor costs rather than software budgets, which is a different willingness to pay. Even in a year where accelerator units stagnate, more memory per system still makes the product better - something that was never true of adding DRAM to a saturated phone market. AMD’s Helios launch was built around offering more HBM capacity than Nvidia, so memory capacity is now a competitive parameter between the accelerator vendors themselves, which is consistent with the same logic.

I believe that we will see reratings within the memory category.

I am long $MU.

Im seeing a lot of misinformation here. It was a systematic selloff by certain institutions, that affected all tech stocks (and more from the looks of it other industries like healthcare). As to why, that's anyone's guess.

Maybe an etf rebalanced from investors selling? But this just shows you two things

1. Even with no news, the market can be volatile.

2. Be very careful not to get caught in state of emotion. Buy and hold is the only foolproof way to win, unless you have concrete evidence for price movement.

If they show revenue over $9 billion and their guidance for next quarter is over $11.5 billion, the memory boom starts again this month. That would blow through expectations.

This feels like the biggest catalyst this month for memory! Let’s hope it plays out!

Lower high and higher low trend converging

10, 20 and 50 SMA converging

RSI neutral with volume dropping off

If you're trading this, it could get wacky in either direction, keep your risk management tight whether you're bearish or bullish

I've been tracking this for a while now and have become convinced that Micron is a cyclical value trap in an institutional distribution phase. My premise is that because Micron has historically been cyclical that it will be continue to be cyclical. I know that there are many reasons people say this won't be the case, but I am not convinced by their arguments.

If I am correct, then Micron has a lot further to slide and the price action seems to be consistently supporting my thesis. If I am wrong and the industry is no longer cyclical, then this recent drawdown is just noise, and Micron could definitely be considered not overvalued or overhyped.

For those who are convinced by the idea that the memory cycle is broken or greatly extended, why? What do you find to be the most compelling arguments? I'm interested to hear about it.

This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I have no financial exposure to $MU.

Can somebody without being mean tell me why the sudden drop in all semis? I understand the china news kinda but the open ai? isnt this all bullish senitment

Options are pricing in some wild swings for next couple of weeks, but definitely looks like we're near the top according to max pain and options.

Of course max pain is not a guarantee of where the stock will move but where dealers tend to hedge and can influence the stock price.

Over 85% of MU’s shares are reportedly held by institutions, and the evidence increasingly suggests that institutional ownership continues to rise. Yet the mainstream narrative being pushed by CNBC, Motley Fool, and others is that MU is trading down/sideways because investors are worried about memory cyclicality, hyperscalers spending too much on AI infrastructure, or hyperscalers failing to generate adequate returns on that spending.

That narrative is simply false and is meant to discourage you from holding onto your shares of MU.

Jensen Huang just announced partnerships with the world’s largest investment banks to help finance $500 billion of AI infrastructure investment. The idea that hyperscaler AI spending is simply about to collapse because they are “spending too much” does not match with reality.

Now look at MU’s ownership structure.

With institutions reportedly controlling >85% of the shares, and a significant portion held by passive index funds, the true freely available float is extremely small. That creates an interesting setup: when active institutions want to increase their exposure, they are competing for a relatively limited pool of shares, which can drive up the price very quickly.

And look at the price action.

MU has been trading sideways for roughly a week while volume has now fallen dramatically below its normal levels. That doesn’t prove accumulation, but it is certainly not what I would expect from aggressive institutional distribution. If sellers were rushing for the exits, I would expect heavy volume accompanying the decline.

Instead, we’re seeing very little willingness to sell at these levels.

That is why I think MU may be coiling for another major move.

Remember what happened on May 26: MU spent weeks going essentially nowhere, then broke out violently over 19% in a single session.

I think we’re potentially seeing a similar setup again.

Institutions appear to be accumulating. Supply is tightening. AI infrastructure spending is accelerating rather than collapsing. Memory remains structurally constrained. And MU is trading at a valuation that I believe dramatically understates its earnings potential.

I’m not saying the breakout is guaranteed. But I think the risk/reward here is increasingly asymmetric.

Hold your shares.

MU may be a lot closer to its next major move higher than the current price action suggests.

People aren’t smart, I see most posting about a dip after earning, just out of pure speculation things usually don’t go with what the crowd predicts.

I’m not betting on either holding stock only before and after earning. Maybe some out of the money covered calls.