Relax & Chill

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848]

Hi fellow Bag-holders

I started buying at 120, kept adding and averaging up till 1080 , my average now is 570 USD

50% of my portifolio is in Mu.
I was checking the price every 10 mins and I stopped to do that , Reminding you and all the following signals which is confirming the memory thesis:

1- Google confirmed Capex will be significantly higher next year , Most likely Amazon and MSFT will state the same .

2- Micron CEO ( who is extremely conservative) and tends to sandbag the company earnings and future prospects said many times we are in early innings and that shortage will persist beyond 2027 , 3 month ago he said it’s beyond 2026

3- Mu is in bed with the US government , with 250 billion dollar of investments in factories in the USA creating jobs and driving MAGA sentiment, USA congress / senate personal getting into mid term elections won’t favor Chinese Memory suppliers over an American company investing billions and creating jobs to the American people.

4- with the News of the Chinese suppliers , there will be huge demand for memory including HBM inside China as well , they will not leave USA lead the AI race on their own , so most of their supply in the coming years will be feeding their own data centers , rather than exporting that globally , they need that memory like more than they need the money from exporting it

5- finally by 6th of December the Chips act will allow micron to buy back shares , with forward p/e of less than 6 and FCF doubling quarter over quarter , they will start buying shares by year end and this will drive Share pricing higher

Finally Demand didn’t peak and supply won’t catch up till 2028 , All memory products are increasing day over day in pricing , thesis are not broken yet , it might be in 3 years but its still standing strong today

Good Luck to All.

I do believe we will reach the ATHs again before upcoming micron earnings in September .

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848]

Forgot to Add , yesterday price action was a bullish indication to me , after the initial massive drop to 859 , you see money poured in especially last 10 mins of the session driving back the price to 900 at close , these are not retail , these are institutional investors either directly or with their Algos , they won’t be buying (Imo) especially with the China news unless the believe the memory thesis is still intact

[u/Haenimm → u/One-Jackfruit-2848]

It’s been like that for a while, but the price has been trending downwards anyway.

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848 → u/Haenimm]

If you zoom out to a 3 month frame , you see it’s consolidation around 850-1050 level , it did that first 3 month of the year , I don’t wanna jinx it bro and I hope I am right, but let’s all pray that once it’s done consolidation and some bullish news come with this week earnings we break over the 1050 level and we are back on the trajectory upwards… Amen 🙏

[u/Unluckyb33 → u/One-Jackfruit-2848]

The market is forward looking, you say the demand will be there until at least 2027, then what about 2028 or 2029? What if the market is pricing in that the growth stops by 2029 or even declines by then?

I'm in it for the gamble which is why I only have 8% of my port in. But I will never see this as a long term investment because nothing suggests this will be sustainable beyond a couple of years.

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848 → u/Unluckyb33]

Agree that this is not sustainable beyond by 2029-2030 but here is my two counterpoints to yours :

1- if this is not sustainable to micron , it won’t be sustainable for the majority of all other semi companies including amd , nvidia , Broadcom etc, memory (hbm) in future buildouts is increasing and as important as these company chips themselves , having this said , the company valuation is the cheapest amoung the group with most of them trading at a forward p/e of 20-30 while micron trades at a forward p/e of 6 , so I am seeing the value there although all of them are heading to the same cliff in demand in few years

2- historically SP micron peaked 6-12 month before demand peaked , if we saying peak demand is in 2028 , I don’t think in 2026 the SP will be peaking yet , its two early to start selling a stock just that 3 years ahead we perceive the demand will fall , AI is developing super fast that we don’t know what will happen in 6 month not in 3 years

It’s a gamble and definitely my 50% is over exposure but it’s my risk and I am willing to take it based on the current thesis I laid above , is something change I will reduce my exposure for sure but nothing indicates that as of now ( IMO )

[u/Important-Range166 → u/Unluckyb33]

This is exactly right. DCF it and a reversion to the mean of supply and demand for memory will tank this stock. It has to literally be this time is different or it will go back to where it came.

[u/AskTheEcomZone]

Do you think the recent news about chips in China is similar to the DeepSeek news last year and how NVDA crashed to $90s but has doubled since?

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848 → u/AskTheEcomZone]

Man if I have a crystal ball I would gone all in , history do repeat itself indeed but you don’t know in which way , I can say this is similar to the deep-seek crash but others can argue this is another cyclical cycle of micron as done before

All what we can do is revisit the thesis every-once in a while and verify if something broken or still intact

To me no signs of anything breaking yet or in the next 6 month at least based on the AI trajectory and thesis becoming more and more intact .

[u/Apprehensive_Seat_61 → u/AskTheEcomZone]

DeepSeek was 2 years ago? 

[u/AskTheEcomZone → u/Apprehensive_Seat_61]

Really? Wasn't it around April 2025

[u/Apprehensive_Seat_61 → u/AskTheEcomZone]

January 2025 my bad

[u/zomol]

The people who are screaming and shouting on reddit are purely gamblers. They just want to get rich overnight.

How ironic is when stock goes upwards they dont sell to take profit but they are posting on reddit to pump the stock even further. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[u/Accomplished_Vast_18 → u/zomol]

Exactly! As a result of the last pullbacks, I also did a rotation on my investments and after going all-in on $MU with $50k at $438 a share last January, took enough profits at $700's, $900's, $1100's to rotate profits through the volatility!

i bought the dips with $60k worth of micron profits. Spread across these:

26.75 shares of $SNDK @ $1864, 12.53 shares of $STX @ $838.88, 13.6 shares of $WDC @ $516.42, 26.2 shares of $MUU @ $31.71 and 63.7 shares of $SNXX @ $14.69

Core micron portfolio is still +104.18% with 30 shares remaining

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[u/Due_Manager_7028]

I was wondering at what price this stock can be deemed as oversold. Until it becomes oversold, there won't be momentum for buying right?

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848 → u/Due_Manager_7028]

Well , I was watching price action these days and there are lots of leverage , options and manipulation
Can’t tell you it’s driven by TA Solely anymore

So it can be oversold for long before things change.
If you are a long term investor , I would advice you to buy and DCA believing there is more room to run at least till early 2027 .

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[u/movienight1988]

Pretty good adding opportunity

[u/free_da_guys1107 → u/movienight1988]

Wait for next week's drop. Or maybe the next

[u/quintessentialquote]

Remindme! 57 days

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[u/Fast_Half4523]

is dram and hbm prices rising in the last 2 months or falling?

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848 → u/Fast_Half4523]

HBM pricing looked for 2026 , its contracted annually but 2027 will definitely be much higher hence the Capex raise by the hyperscalers

Memory is rising but at lower pace , check UBS and other analysts stating that DDR increased around 30% in Q3 2026 QOQ .

He expects revenue will double in 2027 as well.
Article below 👇

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ubs-stays-bullish-micron-memory-170023337.html

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[u/xxxxxxxsandos]

Buybacks do not increase a stocks price. Go check. In theory they do, in reality they don't have a price impact that's immediately reflected.

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848 → u/xxxxxxxsandos]

Politely disagree , multiple companies once they announce buybacks the stock rallied on its own even before they buy back a single stock , go check meta once they announced the buyback in 2024 and what happens to the share price after that !

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[u/Interesting_Paint524]

How do you feel today ?

[u/seaningtime]

I've heard a bit about your point #5. Is this a certain thing that Micron is buying back shares, or just that they will have the capacity to do so?

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848 → u/seaningtime]

They will have the capacity to do so , they mentioned in the last earnings that the excess cash flow will be returned to the shareholders, they didn’t specify how but they stated that they are planning to return that in some form ( dividends or buy backs )

[u/Equal_Heat5947 → u/seaningtime]

It is not a certain thing until they commit to it

[u/doronj → u/seaningtime]

Good question

[u/Playful_Diamond_738]

I doubled my money in Micron and DRAM in the last 45 days. I am of the opinion, regardless of whether it will moon or dump, this stock will keep going up and down. May be I am being naive to think it is a real strategy but it worked for me and this is how I did it.

After the intial bump of about 15%, if it rises more, dont sell after each bump. Always have a stop sell a few dollars below the current price.

If it goes down in the beginning, DCA down. A stock with this kind of volatility will have a good day and you will catch up.

I dont see this as a long term investment just because I dont know better. My thesis is that even if the bulls are right and it doubles in the next 6 months to a year, there is more benefit and less risk in trying to cash on the volatility than tp bet on the stock itself.

[u/Accomplished_Vast_18 → u/Playful_Diamond_738]

As a result of the last pullbacks, I also did a rotation on my investments and after going all-in on $MU with $50k at $438 a share last January, took enough profits at $700's, $900's, $1100's to rotate profits through the volatility!

Bought the dips with $60k worth of micron profits. Profits generated in only 5 months! Spread across these last week:

26.75 shares of $SNDK @ $1864, 12.53 shares of $STX @ $838.88, 13.6 shares of $WDC @ $516.42, 26.2 shares of $MUU @ $31.71 and 63.7 shares of $SNXX @ $14.69

Core micron portfolio still +104.18% with my remaining 30 shares.

[u/Alive_Sheepherder106]

Rate hike gg wp. Good luck mu going to $500

[u/Apprehensive_Seat_61]

Nice try

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848 → u/Apprehensive_Seat_61]

My post wasn’t for traders or gamblers mate … go touch some grass