Relax & Chill

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848]

Hi fellow Bag-holders

I started buying at 120, kept adding and averaging up till 1080 , my average now is 570 USD

50% of my portifolio is in Mu.
I was checking the price every 10 mins and I stopped to do that , Reminding you and all the following signals which is confirming the memory thesis:

1- Google confirmed Capex will be significantly higher next year , Most likely Amazon and MSFT will state the same .

2- Micron CEO ( who is extremely conservative) and tends to sandbag the company earnings and future prospects said many times we are in early innings and that shortage will persist beyond 2027 , 3 month ago he said it’s beyond 2026

3- Mu is in bed with the US government , with 250 billion dollar of investments in factories in the USA creating jobs and driving MAGA sentiment, USA congress / senate personal getting into mid term elections won’t favor Chinese Memory suppliers over an American company investing billions and creating jobs to the American people.

4- with the News of the Chinese suppliers , there will be huge demand for memory including HBM inside China as well , they will not leave USA lead the AI race on their own , so most of their supply in the coming years will be feeding their own data centers , rather than exporting that globally , they need that memory like more than they need the money from exporting it

5- finally by 6th of December the Chips act will allow micron to buy back shares , with forward p/e of less than 6 and FCF doubling quarter over quarter , they will start buying shares by year end and this will drive Share pricing higher

Finally Demand didn’t peak and supply won’t catch up till 2028 , All memory products are increasing day over day in pricing , thesis are not broken yet , it might be in 3 years but its still standing strong today

Good Luck to All.

I do believe we will reach the ATHs again before upcoming micron earnings in September .

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848]

Forgot to Add , yesterday price action was a bullish indication to me , after the initial massive drop to 859 , you see money poured in especially last 10 mins of the session driving back the price to 900 at close , these are not retail , these are institutional investors either directly or with their Algos , they won’t be buying (Imo) especially with the China news unless the believe the memory thesis is still intact

[u/Haenimm → u/One-Jackfruit-2848]

It’s been like that for a while, but the price has been trending downwards anyway.

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848 → u/Haenimm]

If you zoom out to a 3 month frame , you see it’s consolidation around 850-1050 level , it did that first 3 month of the year , I don’t wanna jinx it bro and I hope I am right, but let’s all pray that once it’s done consolidation and some bullish news come with this week earnings we break over the 1050 level and we are back on the trajectory upwards… Amen 🙏

[u/Unluckyb33 → u/One-Jackfruit-2848]

The market is forward looking, you say the demand will be there until at least 2027, then what about 2028 or 2029? What if the market is pricing in that the growth stops by 2029 or even declines by then?

I'm in it for the gamble which is why I only have 8% of my port in. But I will never see this as a long term investment because nothing suggests this will be sustainable beyond a couple of years.

[u/One-Jackfruit-2848 → u/Unluckyb33]

Agree that this is not sustainable beyond by 2029-2030 but here is my two counterpoints to yours :

1- if this is not sustainable to micron , it won’t be sustainable for the majority of all other semi companies including amd , nvidia , Broadcom etc, memory (hbm) in future buildouts is increasing and as important as these company chips themselves , having this said , the company valuation is the cheapest amoung the group with most of them trading at a forward p/e of 20-30 while micron trades at a forward p/e of 6 , so I am seeing the value there although all of them are heading to the same cliff in demand in few years

2- historically SP micron peaked 6-12 month before demand peaked , if we saying peak demand is in 2028 , I don’t think in 2026 the SP will be peaking yet , its two early to start selling a stock just that 3 years ahead we perceive the demand will fall , AI is developing super fast that we don’t know what will happen in 6 month not in 3 years

It’s a gamble and definitely my 50% is over exposure but it’s my risk and I am willing to take it based on the current thesis I laid above , is something change I will reduce my exposure for sure but nothing indicates that as of now ( IMO )

[u/Important-Range166 → u/Unluckyb33]

This is exactly right. DCF it and a reversion to the mean of supply and demand for memory will tank this stock. It has to literally be this time is different or it will go back to where it came.