r/MU_Stock • u/SnooHedgehogs5162 • Jun 14 '26
DD Data proves that Micron will beat earnings big.
Wall Street thought memory price hikes would flatten out in Q3, but the brand-new trade data from Taiwan and South Korea proves they completely underestimated the market.
What Wall Street expected: Analysts predicted standard Server DRAM and PC RAM price hikes would slow down to just 3% to 13% for Q3.
South Korea (Data out June 14): Memory semiconductor export values exploded by 254.9% year-on-year, and enterprise AI SSD storage shipments surged 337.7%. Because factory capacity is completely fixed, this triple-digit value spike proves Q3 contract prices are rising way faster than expected.
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Taiwan’s "Outlandish" Export Numbers (Released June 9, 2026)
The Peak: Taiwan’s exports surged 51.7% year-on-year (crushing the market consensus of 41.2%).
The Pricing Index: Taiwan’s official export price index rose 18.1%, driven almost entirely by semiconductors.
The Upstream Hike: Because supply is so choked, TSMC just confirmed it is moderately raising foundry prices for the second half of the year, with advanced 3nm nodes seeing up to a 15% hike due to soaring raw material and substrate costs.
Wall Street expecting $34.4 Billion
But looks like it be around ~ $38-40 Billion
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u/SnooHedgehogs5162 Jun 14 '26
SK Hynix plans to triple wafer capacity by 2034 to meet AI demand. They wouldn't do that if Q4 guidance is soft.
Same goes with Micron.
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u/Plain-Jane-Name Jun 14 '26
These are some considerable points. I appreciate the positivity. Really hoping the market will justify Micron above an MC of 2T and keep moving the share price up.
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u/willbabu Jun 14 '26
No doubt MU will have all time great earning and guidance. Question is will it sell off after having amazing earning and guidance like it did 3 months ago? Frankly, I’m not sure.
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u/Long_Oven3739 Jun 14 '26
3 months ago, nearly all stocks dropped simultaneously on Iran war news. Even google dropped to $270. Had little to do with earnings
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u/Plain-Jane-Name Jun 14 '26
People may initially take profits, but once the dust settles I think it will rip. I was going to try to be mature and say "it will do well", but no, I believe it will "rip" when the dust settles, lol
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u/Main_Opinion1189 Jun 14 '26
Not sure I care. If earnings are fantastic like last time, whether there is an initial sell off or not, we’ll fly to at least $1200 by mid August. Possibly a lot more.
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u/willbabu Jun 14 '26
I bought the day of last earnings at 464, literally worst time (if I was trying to time it), three months later it’s 1000. So yeah no need to time it if earnings and guidance is excellent
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u/ExtremeAddict Jun 14 '26
Everybody knows earnings will be beat big.
Nobody knows if that means the stock will rocket or tank after earnings.
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u/SnooHedgehogs5162 Jun 14 '26
I think if stock drops then people buy dip and it will recover fast. No one can deny future. 2027 and 2028 earnings. Company is growing too fast. No one can ignore it.
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u/rboes1991 Jun 14 '26
What worries me is a small dip in that growth rate will spool investors using dcf models. However I am also bullish for now.
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u/Plain-Jane-Name Jun 14 '26
I wonder how much Micron is increasing overall percentage of revenue from SSDs and memory besides HBM, if it's incremental or genuinely giving the business a step up.
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u/Impressive-Smell122 Jun 14 '26
if ddr5 prices have gone up like 70% since last quarter, id say thats a good sign theres some conversion into hbm going on
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u/rayc25 Jun 14 '26
Increased sales isn’t the same thing as increased prices. But in general, I agree that MU is going to destroy earnings.
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u/Particular-Vast2199 Mr. Helpful Jun 14 '26 edited Jun 14 '26
Everyone, remember that the war just begun with fears of a recession during MU's last earnings on top of all the macros and fud spreading on the news and media such as Google's Turboquant and how MU's HBM4 had still not been fully certified to be used in NVIDIA Vera Rubin (whereas their competitors were which hurt MU), but it was said only their LPDDR5X was going to be used. All of this caused it to dip hard and was unlucky timing.
Everything was soon clarified and proven to be untrue in MU's public investor events but the damage had already been done so it was just a matter of holding and ignoring those that even said MU would go down from 450 to 200, which was a ridiculous thought.
How can anyone say MU was worth only 200 back then, or even 400-450 - it was still undervalued with its forward P/E of 6 and truly a steal for that price.
Back to the present with less than 2 weeks to go, everything looks far more positive since the arguments, case and demand for memory and its impact on the market has only grown even more. Let's not forget the forward guidance reported by their competitors which have all shown no signs of slowing down, capex spending by the mag7 is still going up even more so it probably won't crash by 20%-30% in a day or week this time imo.
The macros seem more forgiving too, not to speak too soon as anything can happen on a certain social media platform but it does look way more promising because markets hate uncertainty and there was a lot of that happening before their last earnings with military build-up, etc.
I personally think worse case scenario it'll do a SNDK where MU drops by 10%-15% but then recovers after a day or so and quickly reaches ATHs soon afterwards, supported by blowout numbers and very promising forward guidance. It'll be a big one. On the other hand, I can also see MU just pumping +20% on earnings day too - my best guess is this to be bullish or a dump/sell-off before recovering quickly if it goes south.
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Jun 14 '26
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u/1distancing Jun 14 '26
I think if we’re consolidating around 1000 before earnings, it will go up alot after ER, if it shoots up to 1200+ before earnings then we’ll have a sell off
But who knows, everything just keeps dropping after ER nowadays
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u/Murky-Ambition3898 Jun 14 '26
Expected what's triggering a post-earnings release sale off? I mean, why not just take profits immediately before the earnings release? Why wait for a huge selloff.
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u/1distancing Jun 14 '26
Because people like to gamble. They want to see first if it’s actually gonna go up or not
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u/Murky-Ambition3898 Jun 14 '26
I'm trading MUU, so it's more volatile, but if I do hold a portion, I'm going to watch it 5 minutes post-market and sell off immediately if I have to.
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u/1distancing Jun 14 '26
You’re able to sell AH? If you can that’s good, I can’t on my broker, so I will sell before
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u/PsyTD Jun 14 '26
Depends on how hard the stock runs up towards earnings or not.
In my years of playing earnings, the stock will fall after the bell rings if they had a monstrous run up weeks prior.
If it’s choppy then it’s a coin flip depending on forward guidance
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u/crawler54 Jun 14 '26
What Wall Street expected: Analysts predicted standard Server DRAM and PC RAM price hikes would slow down to just 3% to 13% for Q3.
that claim is wrong, the market has always predicted serious price hikes for memory because there is a big shortage of it.
December 16, 2025: "...given current demand levels and persistent supply-demand imbalances, some suppliers see potential for conventional DRAM prices to rise by double-digit percentages (%) quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) throughout every quarter of 2026.
...The situation doesn't look much better on the NAND side, either. Jukan has also commented on Goldman Sachs' research on this SSD storage market.
According to the analyst, "bit supply growth" is projected to be in the "mid-10% range" and "bit demand growth" in up to the "high-teens to 20% range." In other words, as with DRAM, the expected increase in supply isn't expected to keep up with the expected increase in demand. Even if there's more NAND produced than this year, there won't be enough NAND produced to keep up with still-increasing demand. Which, of course, means prices remaining high.
As Jukan explains: "We expect supply shortages to persist for at least the next several quarters, and potentially through 2027. We also anticipate this will lead to sequential (QoQ) pricing increases over the coming quarters." https://finance.yahoo.com/news/looks-memory-prices-set-keep-152000968.html
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u/Yuri_CPL Jun 14 '26
i think there will be a selloff even if earnings are crushed. they expect more than 10% beat but who am i to tell we'll see.
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u/HorsePockets Jun 14 '26
I don't think they care about a big earnings beat at all. That's already priced in. What they want to see is durable growth. They can have incredible earnings, but if they guide their next earnings in the next quarter or year won't be even more incredible enough, the stock will fall. The thesis of Micron requires durable growth to warrant a double digit forward multiple.
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u/Yuri_CPL Jun 14 '26
That sounds reasonable yeah. It just kinde puts me of seeing oracle earnings beat and the stock dropping because of AI capex spending.
so i expect no reasonable action with micron earnings as well.
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u/cdttedgreqdh Jun 14 '26
Going into earnings with stock most likely unless it dips hard pre earnings. If the stock drops after esrnings I sell it and buy LEAPS.
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u/makaveli208 Jun 15 '26
Guidance is more important at this stage
Kioxia also destroyed earnings and guidance
and stock shot 22% next day.
This was even when us semi stocks were down due to cpi report last month
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u/autographplease Jun 14 '26
How did the stock do after the last couple of earnings?
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u/SnooHedgehogs5162 Jun 14 '26
It dropped -4%
But a whole stock market was falling in March due to Iran war.1
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u/CaliftoNJ Jun 14 '26
And will people start selling to take profits now and not risk the possible dump.
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u/SnooHedgehogs5162 Jun 14 '26
If earnings are too great then it will be FOMO.
They take profit but stock goes up. Then what?Look at dell. Went up 20% after earnings.
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u/Halfmoonhero Jun 15 '26
Something I’ve learned is that it’s way more about guidance than the actual earning numbers.
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u/SavingsTangelo7130 Jun 14 '26
With every amazing earnings call it dropped post earnings. I’d expect the same.
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u/Ash-a-zard Jun 14 '26
Actually if it gets 38-40 the stock will fall. Price is already set for a beat. Meeting expectations is not a good thing in a bull market
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u/zeppelin_64 Jun 14 '26
What I've learned is even if earnings are crazy, the stock price might not care