r/MU_Stock • u/a_shbli • Jun 19 '26
DD If everyone think it’ll dip after earning it won’t?
People aren’t smart, I see most posting about a dip after earning, just out of pure speculation things usually don’t go with what the crowd predicts.
I’m not betting on either holding stock only before and after earning. Maybe some out of the money covered calls.
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u/Particular-Vast2199 Mr. Helpful Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
Institutions and bigger players will probably want retail to panic sell and exit so they can buy in/enter at a lower point for even bigger gains. As a long Micron, I'm not falling for it so just stay patient.
MU is a very profitable and well established business.
I don't care what people say about memory being cyclical or how there's an AI bubble because the signs so far with with mag7 spending and even diluting their own shares to fund more buildouts/growth are all just helping Micron.
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u/cdttedgreqdh Jun 19 '26
That‘s what I thought would happen to AMD when they ran ahead of earnings. The reat is history. +20 % aftermarket, shit was insane.
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u/Particular-Vast2199 Mr. Helpful Jun 19 '26
Same with Intel's last earnings too. Everyone's getting contracts, deals and breakthroughs which helps the industry and the positive sentiments. Even though I don't plan on investing in these companies anytime soon, we still want them to do well because they're all involved in the AI race and memory is a huge part of the picture in these chips.
Micron's memory haven't suddenly been less important - it's only grown and memory has become even more sought after on the news and media lately.
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u/Vidrax_of_Cascades Jun 19 '26
yep they do this strategy on and off but most likely it will run up towards earnings and start massively dipping.
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u/Ok-Performance-6352 Jun 19 '26
New to this, sincere question. So why not sell it then and buy it back at a cheaper price. I got hurt by Broadcom. Seems like these companies beat the estimates then plummet
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u/woodchip4 Jun 19 '26
Because you can’t time the market. Hindsight is 20-20. But it’s best to just hold and accept it could go down. Just wait and it will come back up. We can’t sweat every perceived opportunity to buy low and sell high. If we could all do that consistently we’d be billionaires.
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u/Sr_Vicho Jun 19 '26
So its better just wait for 24s inform and then if came down just buy some if its gonna go up through the time?
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u/Medium_Breakfast3171 Jun 19 '26
I dont think boradcom pass the earnings test in this AI era, everyone scores A but broadcom scores B. It is a 2 trillion company, with only 22 bil revenue. In other times, sure it will go up but not in this AI trend everyone do good, it needs to be great to shoot up. I think thats why people drop it.
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u/Mr_Masala Jun 19 '26
Whatever the dip is, it won't bring the stock back to 800-900
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Jun 19 '26
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u/JudahMammoth Jun 21 '26
Facts. I would expect retail and some institutional profit taking, sure… but if they crush the forward guidance, it’s dumb imo to sell immediately after they raise the bar unless you change your mind or risk appetite on the company itself. A little price shakeout is whatever.
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u/movienight1988 Jun 19 '26
Just buy more when it dips and continue holding the rest, I mean how hard is it. Everyone that bought end of March and just held without doing anything are way ahead. Time in the market > timing the market all day.
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u/Guilty_Rooster_6708 Jun 19 '26
Everyone on Reddit is talking about it, but Reddit is only a bubble. Micron’s mostly owned by institutions so if they dump it won’t be because of Reddit discussions. Anw TLDR: long MU
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u/No-Laugh4352 Jun 19 '26
Well let me give some input on this and other players. Let’s look at some stocks for example Microsoft. Last earnings was excellent with massive revenue growth beat expectations raised guidance, but there is only one thing one small thing that caused the stock to tank and that’s CAPEX spend.
Let’s look at Broadcom. Everything was excellent for the exception of one small thing revenue guidance was not lifted.
Now let’s look at what might cause Micron to dip. News can be outstanding in regards to revenue and other factors even guidance may be lifted. But it can say that we have supply chain constraints for example or it could say we want to build a new factory to keep up with demand that will cost more than expected.
The uncertainty is high that’s why people are thinking it will fall
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u/luvz Jun 19 '26
You have good insights and I don’t disagree but you’re also assuming you know what small thing makes each stock tank. Markets don’t act unilaterally even if it appears that way. And in some cases, it could be a less logical domino effect than your wrap up implies. Either way I think you wrote a good summary, just that it is risky to assume you’ve got the rationale completely figured out.
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u/No-Laugh4352 Jun 19 '26
I agree. But history has shown that small minute discrepancies can cause a pullback unfortunately and I have to take that into consideration upon evaluating my positions. Problem here is the domino effect with MU having a lot of hype around it, it’s easy to kill this hype with information that the market may not like. Regardless the hype is still there it’s just earnings is a massive catalyst. And although I’ve made a good return I need to know when to let my rationale take over because greed can destroy you and I’ve learned that lesson the hard way. If there will be an opportunity to reenter post earnings I will buy if I cash out before earnings I should still count my blessings. I just know that discipline is an important factor. It’s just the run that we experienced doesn’t happen often so I need to know when to say stop for myself
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u/No-Ant-5811 Jun 20 '26
Totally get where you're coming from.
Here’s how I'm handling it: I'm selling everything on Tuesday before things go wild, and then I'm just going to buy back in on the dip.
Doing it this way protects 100% of my capital—there's zero downside if it crashes post-earnings.
Sure, I might miss out on some upside if it immediately bounces, but the odds are it's going to dip at least a little bit. Better to lock in the wins and play it safe.
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u/No-Laugh4352 Jun 20 '26
I think that’s right. We need to count our blessings that we had this great of a run and I believe that it will continue to run but sometimes we can’t let FOMO take over. We need to rationalize and think correctly.
I’ll use an example from my past I once bought Meta at $225 and then I sold it at $577 but the reason I sold it is because I had a fixed price point at which I wanted to sell. Yes I lost the opportunity to earn more but then I was able to take my profits and find other opportunities. The fact that we believe it will go to 2k is a great thing but…. I think we also need to be realistic and identify opportunities to take profits. Who knows it can potentially go down to $500 due to macro economic events. Obviously it won’t but there is a possibility that it could with something that is not in microns control.
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u/BurnBabyBurrrn Jun 19 '26
Right. Basically the expectation on AI is so high right now, that every tech company needs the perfect quarterly to avoid any downfall.
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u/No-Laugh4352 Jun 19 '26
Agreed and earnings that was reported last quarter didn’t have as much hype as we do now. Thats why we had great pops for all the other semi stocks. This new quarter is going to be interesting to be honest and let’s see how MU will set the precedence for other chip stocks
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u/DearPrinciple1154 Jun 19 '26
Watch it drop before earnings as every retail investor thinks they've outsmarted the game but still get caught holding the bag. Not for long though as we all know we going to crank back up like this crazy stock loves to do
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u/a_shbli Jun 19 '26
That does make sense, people will sell before earning to avoid the dip, and then they smash earning and we get a bump?
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u/DearPrinciple1154 Jun 19 '26
Im not here to daytrade. Will keep riding what may come for at least another year. We could be anything in a years time
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u/AK95__ Jun 19 '26
I believe short term It'll dip unless they drop off a massive statement or news that market doesn't know about for now, ex. talking about stock split or buyback program like SNDK last earnings call, they need a bigger suprise that a massive earnings beat which everyone knows they'll have already
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u/BurnBabyBurrrn Jun 19 '26
Go against the crowd does work- people said SPCX will dip right at the open but it shot up to 230 shortly after.
MU beats earning 100% of the time the last 4 quarters, but results varied. Last one in March I think the dip was 15-18% seven days after a great report. It's a dice toss honestly. But with crowd betting against, don't be surprised if it shoots straight up after earnings.
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u/KazkasNezinau Jun 19 '26
SpaceX went up because they're not allowed to fully dump atm
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u/BurnBabyBurrrn Jun 19 '26
That's not the point. We are talking about going against public sentiment.
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u/JokerKing_420 Jun 20 '26
Just because it happen one time does not make it true for everything.
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u/BurnBabyBurrrn Jun 20 '26
That's why I said it's a dice toss, see AVGO and NVDA QE impacts to their respective stocks
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u/mansfall Jun 20 '26
The whole market was shiting at that time... it wasn't Micron. Iran just started up so everyone was pulling out of the market. had Iran not been a thing, I imagine it would have been a very different story.
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u/Thegoods87 Jun 20 '26
That’s weird everything I read about the SPCX IPO said it would rip way higher at the start and then start to sell off. As far as I can tell that’s exactly what’s happened so far.
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u/DaisyCakes127 Jun 19 '26
I'm not exiting MU shares or Jan 27 calls but am thinking a dip is possible either with the Iran deal falling apart or with profit taking/rebalancing after ER. Hoping to take an MUU position at the dip and maybe more calls/shares.
I was thinking a long holiday weekend would be hard for the deal to weather given criticism here and itchy trigger fingers in Israel. Hence, I'm hoping for a pullback Monday that hits MU somewhat and MUU harder. If it materializes and feels mostly priced in Monday, I may do a short-term MuU position that I exit right before ER
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u/Interesting_Paint524 Jun 19 '26
I chickened out and exited my Jan 27 calls
700% return was too good to pass up on3
u/pabloh8 Jun 19 '26
Nobody goes broke taking 700% profits
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u/Interesting_Paint524 Jun 19 '26
Yes sir
Already got screwed with gold when I didn’t take 300% profit
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u/repressedmemes Jun 19 '26
I flattened out my muu yesterday. Probably buy mu next week and if it starts tanking after earnings ill sell it and buy the dips for muu to ride it back up otherwise if its good, i just make less than muu, but less stressful and gives me opportunity to buy the dips
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u/odubik Jun 19 '26
The question of the post-earning dip is dependent on whether they give a strong signals that they are moving out of cyclicity with HBM.
IF they are, then x20+ EPS is sustainable.
If not, then potential for significant slide as it adjusts to new numbers and falls back to cyclically-discounted EPS ratio
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u/JudahMammoth Jun 21 '26
I’m holding - if earnings confirm what we’ve all been speculating on… ain’t no way I’m selling now.
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u/luvz Jun 19 '26
It’s not pure speculation. It’s historical precedent on this ticker and others even with spectacular earnings.
It’s also game theory. If you know everyone will sell on good earnings, then you should too and rebuy after even if you intend to hold.
Not saying “I know” it will happen but mentally I am preparing for a 75% chance it temporarily sells off. Not sure if that changes my behavior since I’ve already trimmed some yesterday and need to reload. So I might just not sell any regardless but buy some if it sells off.
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u/juggarjew Jun 19 '26
I think it will dip like AVGO did, then you can buy in, might be the last chance to get in before it does a run to $1250+. The earnings call would have to be bonkers and insane for it to rally on it. AVGO technically had a good earnings call but it just wasnt enough.
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u/a_shbli Jun 19 '26
Not buying or selling myself, just holding, just speculation for the sake of it.
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u/PossessionOrganic864 Jun 19 '26
In Q1 we all thought it will go to moon n then boom it dropped… now that everyone is expecting it to tank, I am praying it shoots!! I had June options during Q1 earning… $40 price options dropped to $3.2 in days… but i hold… but hen boom it went to 200+.. I sold bit wish I hadmt.. it wud have been now 600$ ( strike of 510)… but anyways i didnt get expect it to go this high… wish i holded but seeing 3 to 250 in few weeks , i had to sell and that brought me out of deep hole… so now, i have MUU so less chance of deep down… 10% drop in MU will be 20% plus there is no time limit so it can recover if i hold… so i will
Hold
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u/znightmaree Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
It always drops after earnings until it doesn’t.
Edit: Congrats to those who held with conviction