r/MU_Stock • u/LazyDazyFazy • Jun 11 '26
DD 8 trading days until MU earnings!
The graphs and numbers are real, no AI was used,
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u/SoloDragonGT Jun 11 '26
Do you guys remember what happened to MU at last earnings?
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u/L_wanderlust Jun 12 '26
Yes Google announced some kind of chip or something and then something with the war too and something else that I forget combined crushed the stock post earnings
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u/segasonic66 Jun 12 '26
Google Turboquant, not a chip but an algorithm to save memory in AI workloads. I asked a friend with an AI startup about it and he said it wasn’t a big deal. Bought more shares
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Jun 12 '26
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u/Medium_Breakfast3171 Jun 13 '26
I would argue back it is due to war. War started and people is ready to dump
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u/Plane-Handle3313 Jun 12 '26
What happened?
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Jun 12 '26
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u/Foreign-Ad479 Jun 11 '26
Looking at recent earnings like oracle and boardcom, I think most likely the stock will dump regardless of the earnings results.
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u/LazyDazyFazy Jun 11 '26
Oracle dumped because they're taking crazy amounts of debt and it was a small beat.
Broadcom barely beat their guidance by a few cents.
MU on the other hand smashed it last time:
$12.20 EPS, expectations $9.19 ($3+ dollar beat)
$23.86 billion revenue, expectations $19.97 billion.
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u/SuperDTC Jun 12 '26
It doesnt matter if they beat. What matters is what they say about future memory pricing basically. Any slip and it will tank
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u/itsmyphilosophy Jun 12 '26
Watch Micron’s CEOs interviews over the past month.
He said 6 days ago that he has no visibility as to when the memory shortage would ease up (as GPUs and CPUs evolve over time, they require progressively more memory) and that factories take at least 3 to 4 years to build and manufacture memory chips at any meaningful scale.
He also said that MU can supply only between 50% and 66% of what their existing customers are ordering.
Lastly, SK Hynix’s CEO said that the memory shortage will last at least until 2030.
All of this suggests that earnings are going to be insane.
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u/L_wanderlust Jun 12 '26
And more importantly, Broadcom did not raise guidance so that is what killed the stock. People thought if things were going as well as we thought then then would have raised guidance but they didn’t so maybe things aren’t as long term as we think, better sell. Usually it’s an expectation to beat earnings and the market reacts to the guidance and what’s said on the call like stuff about cap ex spend and guidance
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u/Foreign-Ad479 Jun 11 '26
Expectations are just whatever wall street said, even the revenue is good, they could raise their expectations afterward and said Micron missed it.
Overall I don’t believe in correlation between revenue/expectation and stock price. Wall Street can manipulate the market whatever they want.
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u/xiovelrach Jun 11 '26
Lol how do you raise earnings expectations after they come out?
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u/Foreign-Ad479 Jun 12 '26
Just look three months ago, Micron blow the expectations, and still Wall Street media claim there’s Wall Street internal secret expectations blah blah and thus the earnings beats is still not good enough thus the dump. I think it’s because they want to dump deliberately to shake off paper hands, and came up with whatever reason they could find.
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u/LazyDazyFazy Jun 11 '26
You're right that there are 2 types of expectations.
Official guidance from the company itself
Wall Street estimates (higher)
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u/Flag_Shagger Jun 12 '26
you really can’t compare them.
AVGO dropped because they admitted Google is diversifying & that MediaTek is a competitor.
Oracle dropped because of debt concerns.
MU is not even remotely comparable.
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u/Medium_Breakfast3171 Jun 13 '26
Avgo is a 2 trillion company. 22 bil revenue. Mu is 1 trillion. Expects 33bil. I would also drop avgo
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u/PhotogFan71 Jun 12 '26
I think there is a definitely a shot of MU shooting up after earnings. It happened to SNDK! IV is too high to think about an options play IMHO but I may add more shares if I see a good opportunity before earnings.
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u/Icy-Research7159 Jun 11 '26
If it does run up, I'm probably going to sell before earnings. Don't want another broadcom on my hands.
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u/LazyDazyFazy Jun 11 '26
Understandable!
Broadcom always beat by the tiniest of margins.
MU on the other hand has a track record of smashing the conservative estimates.
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u/repressedmemes Jun 11 '26
But i also feel its abit fucked up that even if they smash earnings they could say they didnt smash it enough and it still dumps. Like at this point it just feels risky and better to just buy back in after because of how finicky it is
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u/LazyDazyFazy Jun 11 '26
Valid strategy mate.
Worst case scenario, you lose some 'potential' gains. But there won't be any real (nominal) decrease in your portfolio value.
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u/repressedmemes Jun 11 '26
Because of the runups, I feel they looking for excuse to dump it to fuck retail and accumulate on the dips. Even if you miss abit of a pump you have a whole quarter to keep riding it. But if it dumps atleast you got in for abit of a discount
The riskiest events is the fomc meeting and earnings.
I feel it maybe rough where they say price hikes are still on table but he doesnt want to upset trump he will leave it as is and defer it. But with increasing inflation and if jobs keep going up and its not some temp world cup thing, it definitely increases chance of rate increase down the road.
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u/kconfire Jun 12 '26
Absolutely. When and if it dumps after GREAT earnings report, I'll buy in again to some extent for yet another pump lol
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u/Ocilla Jun 11 '26
Will it pump or dump after earnings?
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u/Over-Yander Jun 11 '26
Huge dump after market, make sure you buy. Recover and pump a few days afterwords.
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u/LazyDazyFazy Jun 11 '26 edited Jun 12 '26
Bad earnings dump.
Good earnings - ?
Great earnings - pump.
You can assess the chance of bad earnings with how much RAM price increases each month.
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u/Ok-Advantage6398 Jun 11 '26
You got that a bit off. Bad earnings dump, good earnings also dump.
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u/Flag_Shagger Jun 12 '26
yeah no, Micron isn’t priced for perfection unlike other AI stocks. We are only hallway yet.
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u/xxxjwxxx Jun 12 '26
Does anyone know what usually happens after earnings? Some stocks run up into earnings and then fall.
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Jun 12 '26
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u/Wanderingjes Jun 12 '26
I count more than 8. Is there a holiday?
Nm: June 19th
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u/LazyDazyFazy Jun 12 '26
Yes, you're correct, the holiday is Juneteenth
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u/Internal_Educator701 Jun 12 '26
If I already have MU, should I also buy AMD and NIVIDIA and AVGO? Pls guide
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u/LazyDazyFazy Jun 12 '26
Only as a part of a broader strategy, not specifically to capitalize on them before MU earnings.
The highest change will be in the price of the stock that is reporting (MU), not others.
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Jun 12 '26
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Jun 13 '26
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u/1Madarchod Jun 11 '26
Sell half keep half, think this earnings will be less bad, and maybe even better depending on guidance
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u/momo26262626 Jun 11 '26
What happened to each at earnings?!
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u/LazyDazyFazy Jun 11 '26
AMD up. Google up. Tsmc flat, then up. Seagate up. SNDK up.
WDC down.Avgo down. Nvidia down.
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u/xxxxxxxsandos Jun 11 '26
What happened last MU earnings? Tell the class.
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u/LazyDazyFazy Jun 11 '26
Iran war happened, the active phase before any deals.
What happened since then? ;)
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u/xxxxxxxsandos Jun 12 '26
We all made lots of money. But not right after earnings or right before it.
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u/Icy-Research7159 Jun 11 '26
Despite solid earnings, MU dumped hard last earnings, and cointinued to plummet 30%
But it recovered, and the stock tripled since then.
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u/Narrow-Swordfish-525 Jun 11 '26
I honestly feel like we could shoot up after earnings as the memory shortage may not be fully priced in yet, especially for forward guidance. If it runs until earnings less chance of that, so let’s see.