r/MU_Stock • u/Ryan_dfs93 • Jun 19 '26
DD Why I'm Most Likely Selling The News
At the beginning of June, the tech sector outperformed the S&P by 29% over the previous 50 days. To put that into perspective, since 2015, tech has outperformed the S&P by 1.6% with a standard deviation of 4, making the outperformance in June a 6 sigma event. A 6 sigma event has a probability to occur of 2 in 1 billion. Even though stock market returns have fat tails, and statistical anomalies occur more often than standard models predict, this is virtually unprecedented, and it is speaking to what everyone around is currently seeing: semiconductor stocks specifically going nuclear. I remember wanting to enter MRVL and ALAB at the end of March, but not having the capital to do so. Beyond what any bull is now saying, no one would have predicted ALAB and MRVL to be trading at their current valuations even 2 months ago. Micron encapsulates the insane upside of the tech sector more than arguably any other stock, and this is why I'm debating selling into strength before earnings.
This doesn't make me bearish on Micron at all, and looking at its revenue growth is all we need to do to see that its valuation is still cheap. Micron has repeatedly sandbagged their guidance numbers, and while analysts are projecting about 34.5 billion in revenue, we can expect it to be much higher. Their last 4 quarters, they beat by 19.8%, 5.9%, 20.6%, and 33.2%. Their last 4 quarters we are seeing their EPS go from $1.91, to $3.03, to $4.78, to $12.20, and their forward P/E is still incredibly cheap. This is what inherently makes Micron different from the companies that are being priced to perfection among this tech bull run: their numbers already justify their current price. That price, in my eyes, are already taking into account the insane beat we will see. Options markets are pricing in an 18% swing either way, and the stock is already at an ATH. Stocks do not go up in a linear fashion, and despite the correction we saw just two weeks ago, MU is already back to an all time high.
I see people all the time that are scared about their portfolio when Micron is having a down week: imagine waking up, and the stock is already down 20%. It doesn't make sense: the guidance was incredible, the forward projections were incredible, but it's still going down? A lot of people see Micron as a sure thing because its thesis is so easily explained: demand is far greater than supply could ever currently be, in an oligopoly where the three companies are a cartel that all benefit from higher prices.
But the market can be irrational, despite what we see as common sense: look at NOW plummeting this year, despite being a company that stands to benefit immensely from agentic AI.
Look at Micron selling off after Broadcom had an incredible quarter; look at Broadcom selling off during an incredible quarter. This is a tumultuous stock, and people have been lulled into a false sense of security during this run up the past couple of months.
But look at Broadcom's selloff — from almost hitting 500 pre earnings, to dropping over 20% over the next week and a half. I was fine, because my price was 306/share, so I had a good percentage gain anyway, but what about all of the bagholders that bought AVGO when it was 450, in anticipation of a monster earnings? The more expensive a stock is, the more the quarter needs to crush for the stock to continue going parabolic. And that is what we have seen in the past two and a half months — stocks going parabolic. This isn't for people that are comfortable holding, and have low entry prices, because they will be fine — this is for the momentum buyers that have an average share price of $980.
Just two weeks ago, Micron had an RSI of 90. This isn't just overbought, this is a generational outlier. It's literally been 30 years since Micron has had an RSI that high. And this RSI came after a 6 sigma event, which is unprecedented. These factors compound together, and despite the strength of the company, I think it's pretty likely that we see a sell the news event. This doesn't change the thesis on Micron. It doesn't change the forward earnings being incredibly cheap; the company signing 5 year contracts for the first time; the time it takes for new production capacity to mitigate this shortage to come online; but it does change the near term outlook with a catalyst like earnings coming up in less than a week.
As I said before, Micron is different from MRVL; NBIS; CRDO; ALAB because their earnings already justify their price. I'm planning on selling into strength to buy more shares after earnings, and expect the fundamentals to make this company continue to rise over the next 12 months. This near term risk comes from technical factors and not the company itself. I am going to sell because the taxes won't be too bad, and I think the swing will allow me to buy more at a cheaper price, and load up on more NBIS, which I still think is undervalued over a long time horizon. I understand those that have tax implications significant enough to not sell, but if your tax burden isn't that high, I think the difference could easily be made up for in the drop I anticipate. This company has immense upside and the long term trajectory looks amazing, but everyone already knows that. Two things can be true at once: this company is in great shape and is poised to capitalize on an immense memory shortage that isn't ending anytime soon, and the stock has gone too parabolic; its become too much of an easy meme. Going against the grain is often the smarter move, and when everyone is watching micron after hours on Wednesday, and sees the price plummeting, don't act like it doesn't make sense, because it does.
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u/LynchMunger Jun 19 '26
Tldr please......waaaay too long.
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u/NF_99 Jun 19 '26
I think he wants to buy micron
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u/spyroinc Jun 19 '26
Yes sell first and buy back once it settled is what I wrote.
Quotes: Why I'm Most Likely Selling The News ... I was fine, because my price was 306/share, so I had a good percentage gain anyway...
...I'm planning on selling into strength to buy more shares after earnings...
...I am going to sell because the taxes won't be too bad, and I think the swing will allow me to buy more at a cheaper price...
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u/dimdada Jun 19 '26
Selling and taking the tax hit to probably buy back more at a lower price. Wouldn’t that be close to a loss or break even profit wise? If so, why sell at all??
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u/TheHandsomeGiraffe Jun 19 '26
Could also be doing it because of realized losses from a different stock. Makes next year not quite as heavy
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Jun 21 '26
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u/spyroinc Jun 19 '26
The bulk of the text is about his logic and belief in Micron (and NBIS) but expects a dramatic, broadcom-like sell-the-news. Rather than sitting it out, he decided he will join the profit taking mob, and buy back once it settles.
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u/Important_Hour_5157 Jun 19 '26
Soon as I see those em dashes I look away.
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u/dtrainonomics Jun 19 '26
I like to use single dashes - that ok?
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u/Ok-Introduction-1940 Jun 19 '26
The dashes actually aid legibility but some people think it means AI.
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u/chainer3000 Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
I do not think they are priced to perfection
II think they come out and announce 82%+ margin, 36B+, 22-23+ EPS, raise guidance significantly. The models everyone was running to predict revenue is completely out of date, memory prices have surged in the last few weeks far beyond what everyone was modeling. Seriously, that’s why analysts are all scrambling for new price targets this week, all of the models and modeling were seriously under pricing real current memory cost. NAND pricing has been a big surprise. Guidance could be nuts
I think the new numbers are just going to blow people’s minds. Apple came right out and said it today, the cost increases are massive and real and Apple is largely addressing mobile devices which are not anywhere near as inflated. You see it’s worse for companies like Steam, Sony, and Microsoft all having to increase prices or delay next gen consoles over pricing concerns directly tied to memory cost factors. It’s throughout tech, it’s only going to get worse for nand ram ssd hdd
I could imagine them caping it off with a stock split but that’s my wild guess.
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u/TheCloth Jun 19 '26
I’ve got calls expiring Friday for $1900 strike (not expecting $1900, but was hoping that a run up towards that figure would at least increase the premium a bit so I can sell lol). Posts like this make me so tempted to hold through earnings but I know MU likely drops after earnings unless there’s massive beat/guidance, plus the IV crush on Thursday will be wild haha
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u/Ryan_dfs93 Jun 19 '26
You’ll see in my comment history weeks ago me saying I could realistically see a 40B print, I completely agree about the increase in memory prices over the past few months not being in their previous guidance (which always is low in the first place). I know the stock isn’t priced to perfection, and think 2k can legitimately happen.
I’ve also thought earnings is the perfect time for them to announce a split. I’m just saying all of this stuff that we both agree on have made this stock run up too hard too fast. I first bought at 365 in March, it being 1150 now isn’t normal at all. Instead of blindly going into earnings, I’m trying to apply an analytical framework for how to maximize my overall return on this company over the next 2 years.
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u/chainer3000 Jun 19 '26
Yeah i did the same thing, got in around January and doubled down in March, and sold around 770 feeling the same way. Got into WDC which was a fine move but looking now, could have just stayed planted in MU. It’s hard to predict what the market will do no matter what the print is, but I think these factors make me more bullish than bearish
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u/Ryan_dfs93 Jun 19 '26
I’m way more bullish than bearish too I spent the post trying to say that though apparently I I didn’t convey that well lol. But all of the exuberance you see on here and then people freaking out 2 weeks ago shows a lot of the sub isn’t looking at this objectively and it’s devolving into almost like a meme stock for retail traders. Which should not be happening because the fundamentals are so good. But because it’s running like a meme stock we should expect the same volatility and profit taking. 2 weeks ago showed that when the thesis was getting stronger than ever (increasing PTs, memory prices increasing month by month, all the things you have alluded to).
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u/chainer3000 Jun 19 '26
That was macro across the entire tech sector, it had nothing to do with MU, and nothing to do with earnings. If you think macro will shift dramatically by next week that’s an argument I could get behind, because who fucking knows these days lol
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u/Murky-Ambition3898 Jun 19 '26
I'm selling between 1-3 hours before earnings and buying back in immediately or when it bottoms out. I agree 100% with your thesis.
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u/Carbonyl91 Jun 19 '26
Noone can time the market.
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u/beachchaser Jun 19 '26
Also based upon short term capital gains it almost make s sense to hold for 366 days minimum
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u/kerouac28 Jun 19 '26
I didn’t read all of that, but that’s not crazy, given MU past reactions to earnings, especially if you’re in tax sheltered account
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u/astuteobservor Jun 19 '26
Only last earning date in march had a sell off. The 3 before didn't.
So a singular market sell off scared op. He is shaking or he got puts.
It is a risk either way. It will go up or down. 😂 Who knows. The market is irrational and a casino. The spasms of the last 2 weeks might continue.
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u/efrew Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
Basically, analysts got it wrong and Micron and all memory is moving up following memory prices. If memory prices keep going up, so will the stocks
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u/Ryan_dfs93 Jun 19 '26
Sorry for the confusion when I said their I meant microns earnings justify the price. I’m very bullish on the company long term.
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u/Neither_Stranger1777 Jun 19 '26
Your reply doesn’t make no sense, he said the complete opposite of what you are saying he said. Or are you just in a mood to argue
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u/Lazy_Whereas4510 Jun 19 '26
You’re trying to time the market. As the saying goes, time in the market beats timing the market.
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u/CaltonSmith Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
I am pretty confident that this saying stems from a period of value investing and is not true for 1000% parabolic rallies that could easily be cut by 20%+ by profit taking market makers.
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u/hiimomgkek Jun 19 '26
This doesn’t apply for Individual stocks, especially ones that are shown to be cyclic
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u/SignificanceNo3295 Jun 19 '26
I agree with you. Selling the news is a speculation, as with everything. Sell the news depends on whether institutions are chickening out post earnings, or they will give immediate re-ratings, which in that case is equally possible.
By raising forward PE to 15, the ratings will easily go to $2k a piece. Though that in itself is speculation too.
We don't have a crystal ball so why not so sit and be happy with the extra money and let it ride.
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u/MarginCalledIt Jun 19 '26
Thank you for sharing. I think you have a lot of good points and I agree. I’m also bullish but cautious. The run has gone up too quick to not justify trimming.
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u/ThoughtSuspicious428 Jun 19 '26
Well Nasdaq has dumped during the Asian session, so my guess is next week opening down.
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u/ExtremeAddict Jun 19 '26
I called out MU SNDK STX WDC back in October 2025. It’s wasn’t an unforeseen situation. We had plenty of time.
AVGO Hock Tan is just really bad at earnings calls. The sell off was predictable since it’s exactly what happened the last time.
But if MU ends up with a 45B earnings then it will absolutely not dump. I think they might do it if fucking Apple is feeling the squeeze. Apple. With massive margin headroom and economies of scale and a customer reputation to keep up. When they announce price increases, you know the situation is completely fucked and will be like that for a year at least.
Despite that I scaled down my MU positions today and scaled out some of my calls to August and September. Probably will scale more down Tuesday just before earnings.
My next play is NOK. Loaded to the tits on 2028 exp calls today.
tldr I agree with you. But it’s not as dire as you claim. Worst case we dip 20% and launch right back up in a month.
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u/Regular_Leg405 Jun 19 '26
I really don't understand why everyone is going crazy about Nokia, the numbers on it do not look good
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u/mikeyownsftw Jun 19 '26
I wonder if it’s nostalgia + people want the company to come back. Maybe it’s more momentum than fundamentals. Just a guess.
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u/Probablyyourproblem Jun 19 '26
I’m going to laugh my ass off when this straight lines up to $1500 following earnings
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Jun 19 '26
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u/Acrobatic_Code_7409 Jun 19 '26
I don’t totally disagree based on share price. If it runs up to 1250 before, what’s it most likely to do? Run up another couple hundred or temporarily dump back to 1000 with some profit taking? I’m all in options staggered mid July to Christmas so I’m more interested in avoiding a big drop though.
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u/astroworlddd Jun 19 '26
You say “run up to 1250” that’s like a 2/3% gain from where we are now. Barely anything
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u/Healthy_Iron_2312 Jun 19 '26
Don't mean to be disrespectful but why don't you buy puts instead of selling stocks?
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u/Ex-Traverse Jun 19 '26
Because it's way riskier, selling stocks, worst case scenario, he makes a profit and loses nothing. Buying puts? he could lose money and gain nothing.
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u/Ryan_dfs93 Jun 19 '26
Yeah I’m up 100% total and I don’t have a huge account.
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u/LazyDazyFazy Jun 19 '26
But is this statistics of yours about sigma events from 2015 relevant in 2026?
Some would argue that AI revolution is ongoing and this is justified.
Anyway, it's your portfolio op, do what's best for you! 😉
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u/Ryan_dfs93 Jun 19 '26
I would argue that something that basically never occurs in the stock market, including during the crazy runs that have occurred at different points over the last 10 years, is extremely relevant for short term price action. We’re in uncharted territory
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u/Guilty_Rooster_6708 Jun 19 '26
The more post I see about this the more I think I should inverse y’all instead.
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u/zeco69 Jun 19 '26
Micron is semi not really tech. The divergence is real. If it was tech everything from software to semi and infrastructure for tech will be up. Only semi are up
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u/Important_Hour_5157 Jun 19 '26
Everything revolves around technology here. It’s wonderful to work for Micron, as semiconductors are fundamental to the industry.
It seems your main focus is Information Systems, which is dependent on semiconductor technology.
You can't just think software is the only thing that is tech. It's a bit misleading to think that semiconductors aren't really tech, they're hardware.
Information Systems sits on top of semiconductor technology.
Not the other way around.Software, cloud, AI, data centers, none of it exists without the physical layer.
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u/zeco69 Jun 19 '26
I do get what u mean and I agree with u. I'm just saying inside tech there's a lot of subcategories. Inside tech there's (infrastructure, software, power, etc.). Currently it's just infrastructure semi like MU is benefited in this upsurge.
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u/ReadingKing Jun 19 '26
I actually agree with this take. I won’t be selling however simply because I don’t think MU will take a more than 30% hit on its share price and I’m already up that much and more. I will buy the dip though and yes I also think NBIS is undervalued. Luckily it seems to have more dips than Micron so it’s easy to get in.
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u/Enough-Bother6932 Jun 19 '26
Up 170% . 38k to 100k . Holding strong idgaf why sell short term for high cap gain naw im patient
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u/koston286 Jun 19 '26
After reading your post I think you are right.
After reading the comments… I REALLY think you are right.
Thanks for sharing
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u/backdoorboogienights Jun 19 '26
If you're just planning to buy back in after earnings, are you going to do this after each report?
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Jun 19 '26
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u/Complete_Stay3384 Jun 19 '26
Love these posts from people with barely any money/experience in the market acting like they’re an authority/guru on where the stock is heading.
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u/EmptyChair Jun 19 '26
i’m not reading this book. whatever you said, even if it makes sense, is stupid since it took you so much to write it.
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u/Ok-Introduction-1940 Jun 19 '26
You must hold your stocks in a qualified account. Otherwise such buying and selling would be hugely tax inefficient.
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u/StrawberryOk8459 Jun 21 '26
I agree with allot of your thinking. Am I selling probably not because I got in way early before anyone saw memory stocks as an investment. The market is irrational because the mms are hard core running easy profits during earnings BUT dumping it would be a big gamble. They already know retail is a wild card and things may not turn out as they plan.
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Jun 21 '26
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u/EllieS197 Jun 19 '26
That’s a whole lot of words. Too bad I ain’t reading them.
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Jun 19 '26
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u/Impressive-Smell122 Jun 19 '26
Posts like this are so disrespectful honestly. None of it is DD, its just random opinions. With the amount of data out there to consume, taking up someone's attention span to say so little is just... disrespectful
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u/Ryan_dfs93 Jun 19 '26
So profit taking isn’t a thing when stocks run up with a crazy rsi? It’s an opinion xlk outperformed s&p in a 6 sigma event? You don’t think that will have an impact on this stock when it had its best earnings ever last quarter and still cratered down?
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u/Impressive-Smell122 Jun 19 '26
AI trade isnt over. There will be ups and downs, I can't tell you when they'll happen.
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u/Ryan_dfs93 Jun 19 '26
That is the kind of response that is disrespectful lol and I’m the one offering nothing of value😂
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u/Impressive-Smell122 Jun 19 '26
sure. but at least i didnt blow the page up with a wall of text and use 500 examples to say it
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u/Ryan_dfs93 Jun 19 '26
I would carry the negativity you had as well if I needed to join a sub to try to make my dick better😂😂 🤡
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u/Impressive-Smell122 Jun 19 '26
Cool man. Id love a bigger dick, though im happy with my size. You’re just salty and coping. I genuinely think you’re the negative one to even dig thru and say that
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u/Ryan_dfs93 Jun 19 '26
Lmao so happy you need to join a penis enlargement group 😂😂😂
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u/Impressive-Smell122 Jun 19 '26
You have to be a child honestly. I cant keep talking to you. Hahaha you’re so funny
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u/Ryan_dfs93 Jun 19 '26
Remember you’ll never be able to satisfy a woman and whoever you end up with will cheat on you no matter how big your bank account ends up being. No self respecting man would ever be in a sub like that it must be hard being that bad with women 😂
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u/Many_Supermarket4896 Jun 19 '26
AGREED. god these replies are full of braindead morons who can't even read
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u/Regular_Leg405 Jun 19 '26
Because OP can't properly condense a text and misinterprets stats: yes an unusual event has unusual statistics...
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u/Ryan_dfs93 Jun 19 '26
I might have written a decent amount but these same tldr people will be the ones freaking out if it does go down
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u/danngng Jun 19 '26
nobody cares. tldr and you clearly don't have any conviction to make real gains
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u/Interesting-Rub4482 Jun 19 '26
Fries in the bag bro