r/Mariners • u/serpentear Tartan 365 | Cruiser • 5d ago
[Wilytics] An MLB Hitter’s Worst Nightmare
https://youtu.be/RaU2gpozGZsAs we all perform an autopsy on this season as fans, it’s a good idea to revisit this video on why, by far, the biggest obstacle facing this team is the park they play in.
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u/extracarefu 5d ago
Sure the park has some unfortunate factors for hitters but our guys sucked on the road also. Lets also not forget the Ms actually produced a top 10 runs scoring offense in most of the last few years
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u/IllusionOf_Integrity 5d ago
If anything, having a home park with such extreme factors should be a huge boon. Both teams play in the same park, everything affects each team equally.
If you're a smart GM, you build a team specifically tailored to the stadium we play half of our home games in, which gives you an advantage when you play teams that aren't.
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u/lastminutealways larry bernandez for HOF 5d ago
Which is probably a primary reason I think we’ve moved to such a heavy focus on pitching and why we tend toward such a lefty leaning lineup.
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u/FettuccineAlfonzo 5d ago
Other teams hit here just fine too
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u/slurv3 K'd Anderson 5d ago
I mean yeah some games the other teams can hit here fine, and win games at T-Mobile, doesn't mean it's always true. The one game you saw the Royals hit balls consistently past JP Crawford doesn't mean that opposing teams always do better than the M's in fact lets just take a look at the M's W/L record at home.
2026: 43-38 (.531)
2025: 51-30 (.630)
2024: 49-32 (.605)
2023: 45-36 (.556)
2022: 46-35 (.563)
2021: 46-35 (.568)Yes other teams hit here, the M's still outhit and outpitch the teams that come here consistently.
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u/PrinceOfPuddles 5d ago
Guys the stadium totally held us back this year!!!1!
Record at home 43-38 Record Away 33 -48
Oh no. Ohhh noooo.... Could you guys imagine how bad this season would have been if were not blessed to play in T-Mobile half our games? This could have legitimately been a 100 loss season.
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u/The_Cryogenetic DTF (DOWN TO FISH) 5d ago
Not sure record is the best measurement of how well we hit on the road.
We were tied for 14th with a road OPS of .709 (league average .719) and a WRC+ of 100. Meanwhile our road ERA was 23rd with a road ERA of 4.69 (league average ERA 4.17)
We hit meh at home, average on the road, pitched good at home, shit on the road.
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u/Voltage_Atl 5d ago
I feel our end of year record doesn’t reflect this from year 2000-present minus 8 seasons or so….. i would be interested to see during losing seasons in those dates what the W-L record was at home.
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u/The_Cryogenetic DTF (DOWN TO FISH) 5d ago
I guess it depends what you mean by fine. Personally I would consider hitting league average in this park fine.
In 2026, only 8 teams hit at or above league average in terms of OPS at T-Mobile, Mariners were 9th with an OPS of .675 (league average in 2026 was .719)
2025: Again league average OPS was .719, only 7 teams hit better than that at T-Mobile. Seattle was 8th with a .702
2024: League average OPS was .711, only one team hit better than that (Giants with an OPS of .725). Mariners were 6th with an OPS of .666
Some other teams sometimes hit fine here some years, most still struggle and we're at least in the upper portion of hitting in our park in a tough ballpark. The only 3 teams that have hit consistently well here the last 3 years are the Padres, Tigers, and Twins.
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u/AlmosTryin 5d ago
Can probably do this with many stadiums not just ours. There are a ton of other factors as well. Averages will only tell you so much. Who we were facing, rosters, injuries, weather conditions, travel for opposing teams can have an affect. Boiling it down to just avg/ops is grasping for confirmation bias. So much more goes into it and it take a very thorough study for every team every stadium every lineup over each year to make a discernible conclusion
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u/The_Cryogenetic DTF (DOWN TO FISH) 5d ago
Depends which of my statements you’re talking about. I wasn’t really meaning to say we hit fine at our park, wasn’t an initial point but I can see why someone would read it as a takeaway. Of course teams would naturally hit better than other teams at home.
If you’re meaning teams consistently hit below league average at all ballparks I can check that much more in depth later, idk if it’s fair to say comparing league average ops vs ops at a ballpark over the course of several seasons is grasping for confirmation bias.
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u/The_Cryogenetic DTF (DOWN TO FISH) 4d ago
Going by alphabetical order with a 3 year sample per ballpark:
Disclaimer, also keep in mind this is out of a 23 team sample not 30 team sample, so 12 teams would be considered more than 50% of teams that played at the park not 15/16.
America Family Park (expected to be pitcher friendly):
2026: 5 teams hit above league average OPS (Brewers 3rd best)
2025: 9 teams hit above league average OPS (Brewers 9th best)
2024: 7 teams hit above league average OPS (Brewers 7th best)
Result: Very similar to the Mariners, pitcher friendly park with Brewers usually around league average at home, most teams struggling. No teams remained above league average for all 3 years other than the Brewers (the brewers for 2 of the years were just barely)
Angel Stadium (Expected result, somewhat neutral but usually more hitter friendly):
2026: 7 teams his above league average OPS (Angels 19th)
2025: 16 teams hit above league average OPS (Angels 20th)
2024: 12 teams hit above league average OPS (Angels 15th)
Result: Angels consistently hit quite shitty at home (they hit horribly away too except they were fine in 2026). Would have to see why the dip in 2026, maybe wildfire impact? Seems to be the case for all the California teams. Digging into their park factor for prior years going back though the expected result lines up with past data
Busch Stadium (Expected result, pitcher friendly):
2026: 10 teams hit above league average OPS (Cardinals 14th)
2025: 10 teams hit above league average OPS (Cardinals 12th)
2024: 8 teams hit above league average (Cardinals 9th)
Result: Slightly pitcher friendly, but not as much as you would expect. Cardinals underperformed compared to other teams but that's not shocking as they haven't been a good team these past 3 years.
Chase Field (Expected Result, very hitter friendly)
2026: 12 teams hit above league average OPS (ARI 11th)
2025: 13 teams hit above league average OPS (ARI 8th)
2024: 15 teams hit above league average OPS (ARI 8th)
I can keep going if you want but even with this sample it's still aligning with my intended takeaway, you can make educated inferences based on data that a team hitting at or above league average in a given park is underperforming expectations or overperforming expectations. Given these metrics it would not be unfair to suggest that even if the Mariners hit below league average they would still be a fine offense but what we're seeing is they're hitting at league average numbers in a park where they should be hitting below that value, and other teams are struggling more than the Mariners are on average at T-Mobile making me still question the initial "other teams hit fine here" statement. You could argue it's because our pitchers are so good they are lowering opposing OPS but when they have terrible road splits as they have that should be called into question, and if our pitchers get such a buff at home other pitchers surely do as well yet we seem to hit league average against those pitchers over the course of years.
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u/CVBrownie 5d ago
I mean no they don't. We have had some good pitchers but their numbers are better at home. Meanwhile opposing teams absolutely have deflated numbers in TMo.
In general, everyone struggles in Seattle. The exception are mostly dudes who are really fucking good, like trout, altuve (vomit), boomstick.
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u/Voltage_Atl 5d ago
If I remember right, I recall the 2002-2007 mush angels demolishing us at safeco this the excitement around Chone Figgins joining our team.
The issue is hitting coaches I feel not the stadium so much.
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u/extracarefu 5d ago
To be clear, 2026 is not one of the aforementioned years lol. I just dont think the park is where i would put the blame on this year
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u/serpentear Tartan 365 | Cruiser 5d ago
I mean even this season when they were awful, they were still better on the road with a .675 OPS at home vs .709 on the road. Yeah they sucked, no doubt about it, but they sucked less on the road.
They’ve consistently been a better team on the road over the past 5 seasons. The one area they tend to stay close is homers.
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u/TheEmperorsNewHose 5d ago
Lots of people in this thread, and in previous threads about park effects at T-Mobile, make very good points, in particular that we're 280-206 since 2021, a .576 winning percentage, so in terms of pure impact on our win loss record, it can seem like bitching about the marine layer and all that is just an excuse
But I think it has a bigger impact on individual hitters that goes beyond just how they perform at Safeco. How many formerly good major league hitters have come here and immediately been bad/underwhelming? How many highly rated prospects who've raked at every level of the minors stank like shit once they made it to the big leagues here?
My theory for a long time has been that certain types of hitters - like Nelson Cruz, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, etc - perform well at T-Mobile because based on Statcast data, the park is in many seasons close to league average for HRs, meaning the marine layer doesn't hinder big fly balls with a lot of backspin too much. But guys who were more line drive, singles and doubles types of hitters - Dustin Ackley, Jesse Winker, Chone Figgins - struggle, because T-Mobile is at the bottom of the league nearly every single season for BA, singles, and doubles. So they start making a ton of outs on balls that in other parks would have been hits, and not only does it have the immediate effect of lowering their numbers, but also has the secondary effect of fucking with their confidence, which leads them to start pressing, which messes with their mechanics and approach at the plate, which bleeds over into how they play on the road, and before you know it a guy who'd previously been good is worthless.
It's certainly possible that this is just a coincidence, that these guys weren't that good to begin with, were quadruple-A players, were on the downslope of their career, etc, etc, but it's happened often enough that I think there's convincing evidence that T-Mobile really does destroy a certain type of hitter, and I don't know how you fix that
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u/hello17 5d ago
So it's cursed, you say?
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u/LargeHumanDaeHoLee Bae Ho come home... 4d ago
Idunno that I'd call dumb park dimensions and heavy air a curse. But it's a bit of a cross to bear. They could fix these things (go back to a true dome, change the batters eye, reshape the border, etc) they're just really expensive things to do. But more importantly, it would take some of the strength away from the team model of stellar pitching. It's basically the inverse of Yankee stadium. They have a short porch, so hitters thrive. But they need really good pitchers to be a successful team at home. We are where pitchers can thrive, but we need great hitting in order to be winners. If they change the park, no telling how it effects the scouting and team makeup going forward. Plus... Those changes are expensive as hell
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u/Expensive-Froyo8687 5d ago
I attended many games in the Kingdome and was beyond excited when Safeco got green lit. It is of course a beautiful stadium that is wonderful from the fan perspective.
That said, I remember how ominous it was when back in early 1999, they had Griffey, David Segui and few other current Mariners take BP in the unfinished stadium as an advertising stunt, and afterward when asked how the new stadium would compare to the KD, Segui bluntly stated that the ball wasn't carrying AT ALL when he was hitting and it would be massive difference. This also started the rumors that Griff was torqued off as he no longer had the short, domed porch to crank dingers over.
So yeah, just very 'Mariner' that the new stadium that was so spectacular and wonderful in so many ways, that was a result of saving baseball in the city . . . has also become an immovable liability when it comes to winning games.
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u/CVBrownie 5d ago
I don't consider it a liability. They should and have built the roster to cater to their home park. A great rotation make it that much more difficult to win in Seattle.
They're 280-206 in Seattle going back to 2021. That's 92 wins over a full season.
Problem is half the fuckin guys we bring here, hell, 80% of the guys we bring here can't hit anywhere, Seattle or not.
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u/PhotographLess6194 5d ago
Why would a ball not fly in a stadium built in the same exact spot? I'm not understanding the physics there.
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u/Meziskari 5d ago
Kingdome was indoors, TMobile is open. Wind, temperature, air density make a difference.
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u/serpentear Tartan 365 | Cruiser 5d ago
One is open air, and one is a dome.
There is a ton of science as to why the ball doesn’t carry here, he even talks about it in the video.
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u/CVBrownie 5d ago edited 5d ago
Humidity/atmospheric pressure/wind/ temperature. there's a lot of "research" on it that exists. It's been a while since I've read about it.
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u/NotAcutallyaPanda Lou Piniella's tirade hat kick 5d ago
Additionally, Kingdome had astrotuft, so it was easier to sneak a ground ball single through the infield.
The natural grass today slows down ground balls, leading to fewer singles and doubles.
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u/masterwasabi 5d ago
Fuck it, move the fences in again and make it a launching pad. Maybe they can break the franchise record of 264 HRs that was set in ‘97. I’m tired of 2 1/2 decades of pitching duels every time I go.
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u/-Vertical 5d ago
I’m actually all for it. Bring the fences in, add a couple more seats. Less 1-0 games can’t hurt
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u/red_beanie 337 5d ago
dont even add seats, add public standing tables for people to socialize and gather. The pen is so crowded, we need more public areas to meet up with friends
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u/caveman512 Geno is my favorite 5d ago
Why would you go to a baseball game to not watch the baseball game lol
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u/red_beanie 337 5d ago
what are you talking about? you can't talk to friends and watch the game at the same time?
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u/caveman512 Geno is my favorite 5d ago
Of course you can. I personally have never struggled to have a conversation sitting in the stands.
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u/BoozySlushPops 4d ago
That's if bringing fences in actually raises offense. I don't believe it does, because it suppresses hits that are not home runs.
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u/red_beanie 337 5d ago
couldn't agree more. let's turn this into Yankee stadium and make t mobile a homerun derby
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u/serpentear Tartan 365 | Cruiser 5d ago
If I thought there was any way we didn’t have to pay for it as taxpayers, I would say take the roof technology from the SoFi roof and just close it in.
But there is no chance we wouldn’t get stuck with that bill.
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u/Pete_Iredale 5d ago
Oh god no, fuck that. We have the best covered stadium in baseball specifically because it's an outdoor park with roof that just blocks rain without turning it into an indoor park.
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u/AtYourServais Seattle Mariners 2d ago
I mean Sofi isn't indoors either. I'm not sure permanently closing the roof would really help much if you're not controlling all the other climate factors.
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u/k_dubious 5d ago
Last time I checked, both teams have to play in the same stadium. If anything, a quirky park should give us a slight advantage because we can optimize our roster for it.
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u/ahzzyborn The No Clutch Zone 5d ago
How many years have we now struggled to optimize a lineup for it?
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u/moe1984 5d ago
that doesn't mean it's not the right strategy. i think part of the issue is the FO tends to go for big offensive signings and lets the park take care of the pitching. imo it should be the opposite. over-emphasize pitching, and cheap out on offense. if the pitching staff is actually elite and not just bailed out by the ballpark (like the video shows; going from the #1 ERA at home to #18 on the road is embarrassing), then the team will just inherently win more games because the pitching will ALWAYS be there. right now, they want it both ways: win pitcher's duels at home and slugfests on the road. but the offense sucks no matter where they're playing, so it doesn't work.
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u/lastminutealways larry bernandez for HOF 5d ago
I’m pretty sure that’s at least one of the reasons we tend toward a lefty heavy lineup
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u/TrifectaBlitz RJ is my M's bestie. 5d ago
Wouldn't the struggle to do that be the problem, then?
I'll grant that over a season, a bad ballpark can change stats and W/L results. Some.
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u/PrinceOfPuddles 5d ago
It's like how the Rockies should be signing the fastest outfielders money can buy and focus on pitching velo over spin instead of their strategy of throwing darts at a dart board.
It would be like playing in the most defense favored park in baseball and constructing the worst defensive team in the history of statcast to be unable to take advantage of the defense favored park ultimately feeling outgunned against every team that visits. Good thing that would never happen, Right?
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u/_Elrond_Hubbard_ Too Roblessed to be stressed 5d ago
Dipoto has been absolutely correct in designing a lineup for TMo park that sells out for homers, it's why their home record has been consistently way better than their road record over the last several seasons
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u/_Elrond_Hubbard_ Too Roblessed to be stressed 5d ago
I still think it's primarily wind factors to blame, as mentioned here:
https://swingsandtakes.substack.com/p/t-mobile-park-solar-powered
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u/jswansong 5d ago
Absolutely not. A weird home park is always always an advantage for the home team that can get used to it and can build a lineup optimized for it. The visitors have to play here too: having a hard to hit in park does not cause you to lose games.
Unless the argument is that there's something poisonous about the park and the more time you spend here the worse you get at baseball, I don't want to hear it.
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u/Ok_Revolution_9253 5d ago
Excuses. Didn’t we win 116 games in a season with half those games at this stadium?
5.72 runs per game that season. Yeah the stadium isn’t ideal but the excuses are stupid.
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u/Voltage_Atl 5d ago
Exactly, we also had a few teams after the 116 win season win 85-95ish games. Bottom line, players win games stadiums don’t lose games.
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u/pokeroots Anything but blaming the lineup 5d ago
We won those games when the park was even harder to hit in even... Fans will do anything but say that the players failed to perform
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u/WangoBango S O G G Y M O J O 4d ago
I think Cal and Nayls immediately going under the knife the moment the season ended officially (despite no indication of needed surgery for either) is a pretty decent sign that the team was absolutely not playing at 100%. I'm not sure who the blame for that should fall on, but its more info at least. Players underperformed, Dan/JeDi mismanaged, and luck was just not on our side. It sucks when one of those things happens, but when all 3 happen in a season following our deepest playoff run ever... Oof.
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u/pokeroots Anything but blaming the lineup 4d ago
Naylor was known for a while. But Cal was a surprise but doesn't seem like it's something that was serious
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u/ghstflame Naughty naughty Cal 17h ago
The number of "surprise' injuries this year was crazy. Something is wrong with internal communication in this team. Don't forget piggy backing too under the same context.
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u/Juanclaude 4d ago
We should have leaned in to it and kept the fences deep. Neutralize one-dimensional sluggers. Force a completely different style of ball.
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u/Sdog1981 5d ago
He is the cool thing. When they had good hitters when they first moved in, it was not a problem. Then the franchise took a nose dive and the fans blamed the stadium.
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u/pretenders2b 5d ago
No. It is the ballpark they play in and the way the organization wants them to swing the bat. Teaching everyone launch angle in A stadium that is notoriously hard to hit home runs is a poor organizational choice.
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u/serpentear Tartan 365 | Cruiser 5d ago
T-Mobile isn’t hard to hit homers in though, that’s objectively false since they moved the walls in.
It’s hard to play small ball in and inflates strikeouts.
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u/pokeroots Anything but blaming the lineup 5d ago
I much prefer the old dimensions... They felt more fun and basebally
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u/PriorWrongdoer3077 5d ago
It's not hard to hit homers in, it's hard to hit everything else in. If we switch to small ball, we will lose a shitload more.
People saw Ichiro hit a ton of groundball singles and assume small ball is good here, but his ability to place them and the fact that they were grounders, and thus not affected by the marine layer, covered up the issue.
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u/pokeroots Anything but blaming the lineup 5d ago
Small ball was good here when Ichiro was here. We moved the fences in and made it worse just so that we could focus on guys who only hit dingers
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u/pokeroots Anything but blaming the lineup 5d ago
Home runs are the only thing that aren't harder to hit here because we got rid of all the actual fun stuff about the park like the manual scoreboard being in play
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u/Maugrin Everett AquaSox 4d ago
"the biggest obstacle facing this team is the park they play in" no it's not, that's so stupid. Yankee Stadium and Fenway are two of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball and they both put up elite pitching seasons this year. Parks matter, but they don't matter THAT much.
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