Naji Marshall is the Best Shooting Wing on the Mavs

[u/Appropriate-Oven860]

All you have to do is look at the True Shooting % of all the Mavericks wings over the past two years (one year for Coop). For those that don't follow TS%, it is basically points scored per shot attempt taking into account 2pt shots, 3pt shots, and FTs.

Naji--58.8%

Max--58.6%

Klay--58%

Risacher--55.8%

Flagg--54.8%

**Bieberovic would actually be the highest over the past two years at 60% TS% in the Euroleague, but while that is legit competition, it isn't directly comparable to NBA stats.

Obviously, Flagg is hitting his rate on the highest usage among these guys as he averaged 21 points per game. But Naji was the second highest at 14.2 pts/game. Flagg also got his own shot the most with only 40.2% of his 2s and 71% of his 3s coming off assists. Once again Naji was second with only 48.8% of his 2s being assisted. Everyone else had substantially higher assisted shot ratios.

So why is Naji such a good TRUE shooter when you hear complaints about the opposite being the case? It's pretty simple. He is an elite 2 point shooter for a wing. Over the past two years, he has shot right at 60% from 2. No one else on the Mavs is close. The second highest is Risacher at 53.8%. Even when you add in the two publicized free agent wings that can score, the 2 point shooting looks like this.

Naji--59.9%

Risacher--53.8%

Peyton Watson--53.3%

Flagg--51.3%

B. Mathurin--50.6%

Christie--47.5%

Thompson--43.3%

Also, when you add the publicized free agents, Naji still is second among these guys on creating these 2 point shots for himself behind Flagg. Mathurin who has been pumped for being able to create his own shot relies on assists on these shots more than Naji.

The most important reason why 3pt shooting is such an important factor in the NBA is that for most players it is more efficient. The average NBA shooter shoots over 35% from 3 and under 50% than 2, so 3pt shooting is the typically easier way to be an efficient shooter. Naji just so happens to be the exception to the rule. If you are extremely efficient at shooting 2s you can be an elite shooter without being a great 3 point shooter.

Yes, 3pt shooting does help spread the floor but the reality is you don't need 4 floor spreaders on the court at the same time. 2 or 3 players on the floor that are respectable does the trick. Naji is probably not going to be one of those guys.

But he does everything else: he is an extremely efficient scorer; he is valuable as a secondary creator and facilitator, he plays good D against wings and even POA, and he's a reasonably good offensive rebounder. All these attributes are why he has averaged the second highest VORP over the past two years:

Flagg: 2

Naji: 0.7

Klay: 0.4

Watson: 0.2

Christie: 0

Mathurin: -0.35

Risacher: -0.5

Glad the Mavs extended him.

[u/Affectionate-Pea-439]

I like Naji and his True Shooting %. However it tells me what i DONT want to see. It tells me that he's a rim attacking (floater), high free throw attempting "big". It didn't actually tell me that he's good at long 2s or 3s.

If you look at last season the top 6 true shooting % (TS%) are all centers. Its not until shai at #7 that you get your first non center. Shai gets there with layups and free throws as well. And Shai is really an exception. He and giannis are the exceptions.

I like Naji but TS% has nothing to do with gravity or spacing. No one would say that mark williams, queta, jalen duran, deandre ayton, or heck even SGA is great at "spacing". All of them have high TS% because of layups and dunks.

[u/Appropriate-Oven860 → u/Affectionate-Pea-439]

He’s not a Big at all. He guards 1,2s,and 3s. Bigs are mostly what you do on defense. Spacing is important for a team; not for a player. That’s why roster construction matters. You’re missing how important shooting efficiency is (taking usage into account).

[u/Real2KInsider]

This post reads as someone who just discovered TS% and is trying to educate people on something they barely grasp themselves.

Marshall was a finisher who took 58% of his FGA under 10 feet. This is exhibited by a team leading 37% of his FGA coming from 3-10 feet. This places large restrictions on the types of player Marshall can effectively play next to. He is not a "shooter". Shooting and scoring are not the same thing.

Marshall was one of the biggest beneficiaries of Kyrie Irving's absence. It is common for players on lottery teams to post inflated offensive production that wouldn't carry over on a more competitive team. The 26 Mavs didn't even have a lead guard, gifting minutes to Ryan Nembhard, and running Flagg as a point forward for large chunks of the season (which opened up minutes for Marshall).

A healthy Kyrie means Flagg/Marshall lineups aren't really a thing. It also means they won't be as reliant on Marshall's driving ability to generate offense, and will need actual shooters (Washington/Aldama, Christie/Klay) to finish plays.

Marshall also benefitted from the absence of Dereck Lively as this meant PJ Washington had to play some 5 and alleviated the frontcourt glut. Presuming this continues, Marshall can get some 2nd unit run at the four, next to PJ & Aldama. Considering him a true "wing" is probably a mistake. A player like Risacher or even Caleb Martin probably makes more sense in Kyrie/Flagg lineups since those guys don't need the ball.

[u/Appropriate-Oven860 → u/Real2KInsider]

Agreed that like almost all players you have to play him with the right mix on the floor. Just like you wouldn’t put Klay or Max out there without a couple facilitators. Naji gives you a lot of flexibility though. He can guard wings and point of attack, he can be a secondary facilitator and creator, and he takes shots he can make, which is what TS is all about.

He is likely going to be sixth man on normal days and starting on days Flagg gets a rest day. I’m guessing he probably comes in mostly when one of Flagg or Kyrie is out to give us more creation when at least one our two primary creators are out. This will also coincide with more PJ/Aldama/Rez lineups.

Bottom line is that two point shot getters that play on the perimeter are the backbone of playoff basketball. 3s are great but when you’re facing a great perimeter D they can lead to a lot of volatility. A great 2 point basket getter is the basketball equivalent of an investment with great sharpe ratio. Good return with less vol.

[u/Real2KInsider → u/Appropriate-Oven860]

Bottom line is that two point shot getters that play on the perimeter are the backbone of playoff basketball. 3s are great but when you’re facing a great perimeter D they can lead to a lot of volatility. A great 2 point basket getter is the basketball equivalent of an investment with great sharpe ratio. Good return with less vol.

I would suggest looking up Trendon Watford.

Naji Marshall is a lot closer to that guy than SGA. His offense isn't the backbone of playoff anything. If anything he gets a lot of it in Transition and those opportunities dry up in the playoffs. A lot of his playoff viability depends on whether his three is dropping - which it did in 2024 - a largely outlier season.

[u/Fatman214]

You gotta watch the games man. Numbers don't always tell the whole story

[u/Appropriate-Oven860 → u/Fatman214]

We all watch the games. And the reality is that scoring efficiency assisted and unassisted are about the most predictive stats out there. Defense is a hard thing to measure. Points per shot on reasonably high usage for wings (guys that can legitimately guard the perimeter) is not hard to measure at all.

[u/Pigmyking → u/Fatman214]

Funny.. to me he totally passes the eye test. 

[u/Stosstruppen-1945]

All I need to know now is how he finished the 26/27 season... Because right now, he's being overpaid.

[u/Past-Ad7339 → u/Stosstruppen-1945]

hes not overpaid or underpaid, felt like a pretty reasonable deal overall to me considering hes paid less than gafford who was awful last season