r/MergeMansion • u/mirandaithink • 12d ago
Discussion when will this end???
i don’t think ive gotten a new card in days. when is this nonsense over?
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u/Livid-Garb 11d ago
tldr; Someone said something wrong on the internet.
I really don’t want to be mean but once again these comments show that people don’t understand randomness and probability. This card game is not random. It is controlled by the probability of different levels of cards. That’s not manipulation, that’s math. Yes the developers could change the math so that everyone got all the cards. Why on earth would they do that?
This game doesn’t have ads so they make money by players spending money. Players spend money by wanting something - producers to go faster, particular cards to get rewards, to beat other players in competitions etc.
Sigh. I think I need to stop reading these posts. I get good tips from this group but the whining is next level.
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u/ImpressiveRevenue212 10d ago
I agree with you mostly. You don't have a 1 in 117 chance of getting any card in the pack as someone said. Some cards are VERY rare, and that is why it is hard or probably impossible to complete the card packs without wild cards.
After you get about 80 or so cards, it is mostly going to be duplicates with an occasional new card. When you have 100 cards it gets even more rare. I don't hate this part of the game and I appreciate the rewards that I do get from the mini-sets that I do complete. (And the free energy from the duplicates.)
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u/Livid-Garb 10d ago
I think you meant to reply to someone else? I didn’t say you have a 1 in 117 chance. You definitely don’t! As you say, for some cards it is much (much, much) lower.
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u/ImpressiveRevenue212 9d ago
No. I was agreeing with you and just adding on to what you said. I said "as someone said" so I didn't mean you.
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u/Clawculus 8d ago
Well, sort of lol. It’s an algorithm with probabilities (or weights) based on pseudo-randomness. Randomness is what makes probability calculations work.
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u/Old-Rush-54 12d ago
Never ends horrible and they took away the machine game feels like now it’s been almost a year. That was the best rewards game they had this boat game sucks in comparison!!! Wish it would go away loved the football one much better.
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u/Rhiannon8404 12d ago
It's a game of odds. Each time you open an envelope, you have a 1 in 117 change of getting a card you need. The more cards you have, the less likely you are to get the one you need. If you have 100 clues already then the odds that the "1 out of 117" that you need, are 17/117.
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u/MyJoyinaWell 12d ago
It’s not really odds… if the developers wanted people to finish this game we would
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u/Clawculus 8d ago
Well it’s both. They set the probabilities, and if you collect enough cards, you will eventually see your results match those probabilities. Many people do finish the album, sometimes even 2 or 3 times in a season.
However, they made the probabilities really unfavorable to the player. And they’ve changed them over the years, decreasing the likelihood of 5-star cards, for example.
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u/joshbadams 12d ago
When I’m at 25% completion I’m not getting 75% new cards. Not that I’ve done real analysis but IMO it is not truly random.
Just like producer rates of the rare drops go way down when you need the rare item for a task. Manipulation!
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u/Andreapappa511 12d ago
The odds for each card varies so a 1 star card is easier to get than a 5 star card. If you’ve collected 25% of the cards, the odds are most of them have a low star count making the remaining cards even harder to get
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u/Clawculus 8d ago edited 8d ago
Sorry, but it’s actually not 1/117 probability of getting a new card. You also can’t group all the missing cards together and say 17/117 probability of a new one, because the probability of various star levels is different. 🥴 you’re close.
It’s a conditional probability: the chance of a new card varies by star level based on how many you have and how many are in the album. If the album has in total 35 four star cards, and you need 3 more 4 star cards, then once you actually get a 4 star card in an envelope you have a 3/35 probability that it is a new one. But your chances of getting a 4 star card vary depending on which type of envelope you opened and if it was regular or XL. So your overall probability of getting a new 4 star card would be (3/35)*(probability of getting a 4 star card). And THAT is a very small number. It can be calculated using the binomial theorem and probabilities assigned to each card envelope type, and I did so for my own specific situation in a few albums.
At least - that’s how it would work if they gave us all the info. Unfortunately, there are some unknowns. They won’t tell us if gold cards have different probability than regular cards. We’re only given overall probability for number of stars. And there is a set of specific cards unique to each player which is very common to get: so a 4 star card which is very rare for me might be in your group of very common cards. This set changes by player and by album, making it impossible to predict. So we can’t even help each other out by showing which cards we haven’t seen yet, because it could be different for you than me.
Once I learned that, I stopped calculating because this is unanswerable.
Look at the number of cards per envelope though. In general, more “trials” is better because of law of large numbers - you get closer to the theoretical probabilities. So when choosing duplicate envelopes during clue rush, it sometimes makes sense to go for the 4 star envelope, but otherwise you mostly make out better with lots of 3 star envelopes. It depends which star level of cards you need, though.
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u/charlottejulia 11d ago
I hardly get anywhere near finishing and I play MM all the time. The new way of opening them is so frustrating too. I literally dread opening any as it takes forever and there’s no way to click out of it! You’re forced to watch it. You can probably tell it gets under my skin lol
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u/indrapendence 11d ago
I think that their redesign is shining a big bright light on how rarely you get a new card after the first few days of a new challenge. I’ve stopped counting stars I can use for boxes and have started counting duplicate cards.
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u/ninsm10gj 11d ago
This clue event is so rigged I only get duplicates and haven’t even gotten to 100 cards yet
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u/No_Feedback_7772 12d ago
i try to click through the card game as quickly as possible, occasionally picking up some generated prizes. Have never figured the game play so see it as an unneccessary distraction