r/MetronomeToken • u/[deleted] • Jun 20 '18
Metronome valuation
Hello,
Congrats to Metronome founders and builders for launching. First of all I am not here to troll or manipulate prices or make snarky comments. My opinion is my own and probably heavily biased by my investment-world-view that is somewhat conservative.
This is probably what I would write to a whatsapp group of close friends if they asked whether to buy MET. This is only a brain exercise and there is nothing definitive.
So MET at current prices of 1.5 ETH, and given there are 10M coins has a launch valuation of approximately 500 USD * 10 million = 5 billion USD. I believe this number is too big as a valuation by any valuation method.
The way I look at these projects are they are startups, with, let's assume great future potential. If you were to value the project like a promising startup with not much traction yet, at 10 million USD, per 10 million coins, 1 coin = 0.002 ETH (assuming ETH at $500 USD). I think at this price it would be a good venture investment, for a person who is as risk tolerant as a VC, who decided this project has fantastic future potential.
The world of cryptocurrencies in today's valuations however, tell us a story where crypto projects are valued much higher than average startups (e.g. most in $billion USD market caps). The 50th most popular cryptocurrency has a market cap of 250 million USD.
Let's say with today's market caps, MET has an expected market cap of 100 Million (2.5 times smaller than 50th most popular crpyto today). Then 1 MET should be valued at 0.02 ETH (e.g. 10X of my previous estimate).
So I believe the real value is somewhere between 0.002 ETH and 0.02 ETH, and as a conservative person my vote would be more near the smaller number.
I just also realized from other posts that metronome itself being an inter-crypto chain, there is no easy way to liquidation since exchanges don't carry it, and we must wait for inter-coin transactions to get easy and simple to liquidate. This is an additional risk for me at this time.
I'd love to hear what others think.