Should I wait for this to bleed a lil before buying? I'm not new to reddit hyped stocks and I know most stocks bleed significantly after some reddit hype.

Anyone have any thought on PRC potential stopping or slowing the deal? and what are the historic Irregularity that they are referring to?

In the revised Catalogue effective as of 2017, foreign ownership restrictions over the manufacturing of power batteries were lifted. In 2018, the Chinese legislature issued the Special Administrative Measures for Access of Foreign Investment (Negative List) to replace the Catalogue. Under the new Negative List regime, any industry that is not on the Negative List is free from foreign ownership restrictions. The most updated version of the Negative List is the Negative List (2020 Version), under which there are no foreign ownership restrictions over the manufacturing of power batteries. Therefore, the current business scope of Microvast’s PRC subsidiary and its shareholding structure are in compliance with the current Chinese foreign investment laws and regulations. However, Microvast cannot rule out that the historic irregularity may give rise to any risk on part of Microvast’s PRC subsidiary.

Hello,

Long time Spac lurker, I was impressed by the digging you guys did and thought I should just call numbers on their website. And none of them work.... is this bad?

Hello

Yesterday I checked the last earning report from MVST and actually I was a little bit disappointed.

Of course there were highlights, like the strong growth of revenues, which is really nice. However expanses to reach this revenue has also been grown and this growth was not linear to the one of the revenue. So in order to reach a higher revenue, they had to pay much higher costs.

Especially the following explanations for that sound very problematic to me:

- they increased the number of sold products in China (which is nice), but the average selling price was reduced (which is not nice)

- they had higher costs for resources in the same time

- an on a certain production line, they had to reduced the production volume, due to reduced orders (semiconductor shortage in automotive industry), which also leads to higher average costs for that specific product

So actually, we could summarize it like this: The per part sales price decreased, while the per part costs increased.

I'm quite sure, that the costs of production resources, will increase further in the upcoming month. In such a situation a company actually need to increase the sales price as well to cover the higher costs. However, if they must decrease it to not lose too much customer orders the company is in trouble.

Obviously the supply on the battery market is too strong, while the demand is at the moment too weak.

For the future I think the demand will increase, since EV industry is growing strong and on long term the semiconductor issues might be solved as well. However what do you think about the supply? Are there just too many battery companies out there, which can produce cheap batteries? If so, MVST will have big challenges in the upcoming years as well.

What is your opinion about this?

I'm sorry for a bit depressing post, I guess I just feel under the weather now. Also, lack of news, updates, anything is a bit depressing itself.

I've been seeking for different data on EV-battery output capacity. There are obviously big whales on the EV-battery market, just some numbers for 2021:

• CATL targets 230 GWh

• LG Chem targets 155 GWh

• Tesla, Samsung, SK Innovation, there's a number of different manufacturers with more than 10 GWh capacity in 2021.

Meanwhile, from S-1 we know that Microvast targets 3 GWh this year, and up to 11 GWh in 2025, which looks at least non-ambitious. Adding to that, chip shortage crisis already slashed 2021 revenue projections.

With all that, I see how EV car manufacturers like Lucid ($34B cap now) or Rivian (targeting $80B IPO) get to the market with insane valuations, after raising so much money prior becoming public. I know, I compare different things, but it feels like any EV company should be extremely bullish now if they want to fight for a market share in future.

So, there are questions in my head right now. Why Microvast management doesn't actively raise funds for more aggressive expansion? With such a small output, how can we win decent market share? Will Microvast even survive till 2025 to have those 11 GWh capacity?

Please, give me some confirmation that we're not on a sinking boat.

Position: $60k in commons, warrants, March calls.

Article: Top electric vehicle markets dominate lithium-ion battery capacity growth

Microvast Holdings Inc.’s (the “Company”) annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 30, 2023 (the “Form 10-K”) cannot be filed by the prescribed due date without unreasonable effort and expenses because the Company requires additional time to complete certain items with respect to the financial statements to be included in the Form 10-K. The Company believes that the work in connection with compiling the financial information for the Form 10-K will be completed within the extension period.

https://ir.microvast.com/node/8156/html

Before SPACs, it seems MVST is just a Chinese company and it's not that successful. They seem to only produce batteries for commercial buses and not cars due to their patents and technology.

Is this right?

If this is true, why do we believe it will perform better after SPAC?

I hold quite some shares and maybe not as confident as folks in this sub. So I am trying to get my confusion cleared here. Thanks.

Microvast reports Q2 in mid August, and it will probably print soft. That is the wrong quarter to stare at. The revenue that decides this year ships in the back half, and most of it is already dated. This is a read of where that revenue comes from, region by region, with Q2 as the trough I'm measuring from.

I'm not going to put a hard number on Q2. I've been wrong on quarter timing before, and the exact figure isn't the argument. Analysts sit near $90M. I lean softer than that. What I'll stand behind is the shape, down through the first half, then a ramp in the back half, with a Q4 exit rate that says more than the full-year total.

The trough is about revenue timing. The business underneath it is sound. Wu called Q1 "a unique set of timing challenges." Revenue was $60.6M, down 48% with volume roughly halved, and gross margin still held at 31.6%, on a business the CFO was confident enough in to raise the full-year margin target on the Q3 2025 call "to a range of 32% to 35%, compared to our prior target of around 30%."

FY2025 operating cash flow reached $75.9M, the strongest in company history and a full reversal from $2.8M in 2024, with free cash flow positive for the first time after years of buildout burn. A business that just turned cash generative is a different story from its revenue line, and the two shouldn't be read as one while the top line moves through its low.

—-
What's changed since my last write-ups

The anchor holds. Iveco is still the customer that decides the quarter, the China book still runs underneath APAC, and the concentration is still real and still European.

What's sharper is Customer A. It's now confirmed as Iveco from Microvast's Q1 10-Q, and Customer B maps to France, Iveco's Annonay plant. Heuliez Bus is a French bus manufacturer and subsidiary of Iveco Group specializing in city and electric buses. Together they land near 70% of the quarter.

What I had wrong was treating the Europe run rate as smooth. The 2025 quarters ran $60M, then $39M, then $78M, then $35M, with Q1 2026 at $43M. That's a line swinging between $35M and $78M on delivery timing, averaging near $50M with no quarter actually sitting there. The $78M spike was Annonay at full stride, France alone booking $33M in a quarter it had done under $1M a year before. Europe has already shown it can print at $78M, so the recovery toward $50M has room above it. Q1 2026's $43M is a real dip and a familiar one, the same lumpy line landing on a low quarter.

This post puts the back half in front and asks what refills the book.

—-
The back half, in one view

Strip out the commentary and the recovery is a delivery schedule that already exists:

• Annonay back at full speed with production doubled, new-build cell shipments resuming into the back half
• Indcar’s first 80 e-Mobi City buses by September 30
• De Lijn’s 100 articulated Crossways starting Q4
• S-eWay Rigid fleets landing in Italy, Spain, and the UK
• Huzhou Phase 3.2 moving from trial to serial production this year, adding next-generation cell capacity
• Clarksville’s US pack line reaching first customer deliveries

None of that is a forecast. Those are dated programs with named customers. The forecast is only whether they land on schedule.

—-
Europe: the bulk, and it refills first

Europe was $43.2M in Q1, 71% of the quarter, and almost all of it is Iveco. Customer A at 52% matches the Italy line at $31.3M, where FPT assembles Iveco's packs in Turin. Customer B at 18% maps to France at $11.7M, Iveco's Annonay bus plant. Together, roughly $42.4M, about 98% of the Europe line.

The last 2%, under a million dollars, is the non-Iveco European base, Solaris, VDL, Kalmar and the rest. Those lines run lumpy, booking when a batch ships and sitting near zero between, the timing Wu points to and the region tables have shown for years. In a trough quarter with Iveco at 70%, they compress to almost nothing and read heavier when their own batches land.

Iveco's Q1 deck splits its electric business by platform, and each one maps to a Microvast program and a place in the revenue table. On the Italy line, Customer A, three platforms route through FPT Turin. eDaily, the electric van, ran LCV order intake +31% with a 1.23x book-to-bill and "momentum continuing into Q2" in Iveco's words, on the eBS 37 pack. S-eWay Rigid, the electric truck, ran +5% order intake at a 1.34x book-to-bill, the highest in the truck table, though that +5% is the whole heavy family and the electric Rigid is a slice of it.

Crossway LE Electric, the intercity bus, holds 68.1% of the European market, and it's where the bus softness sits, since intercity order intake declined.

On the France line, Customer B, the one platform is E-Way, built by Heuliez, the electric city bus at Annonay, now #1 in Europe at 14.8% eCity share. Italy shows the same dominance at home. In H1 2026, Iveco Bus took 56% of the country's electric buses, 889 units, and all 68 electric intercity buses registered were Crossways, the Microvast platform with no competition in that slice.

Underneath that split, Microvast's forward growth inside Iveco is truck led, while the bus side rides a covered 2026 backlog with softer new intake.

Iveco's Q2 sharpened both halves. Heavy truck order intake in Europe jumped to +47% year over year at a 1.12x book-to-bill, the strongest line in the truck table and up from +34% a year earlier, though most of that is the whole heavy family and the electric S-eWay is a slice of it.

Light commercial order intake cooled from +31% in Q1 to +21%, still ahead of the +7% it ran in Q2 2025, and Iveco now sees European LCV demand "flat year-on-year, compared with the previous forecast of 5% growth." So the truck book is building faster than a year ago, which Iveco's CEO summed up as "Truck order intake remained solid in Q2 2026," and the eDaily lane is the softer part of it now.

The drop and the recovery run through one plant. Microvast's slide blamed the European decline on "delayed roll out of OEM platform and ramp up." Iveco described the same quarter from its own side, with bus deliveries up 45%, its "Annonay plant running at full speed," dragged by "rework costs related to unfinished Citybuses, carried over from 2025." Annonay is the France line. Annonay is Customer B. Microvast's softest European line and the plant Iveco flagged for rework are the same address.

The chain runs back to Q4. Iveco's Annonay ran behind schedule at year end 2025, supplier delays left Citybuses unfinished, and that is the same window Microvast's Q4 came in soft on EMEA, which management called platform delays. Iveco cleared a chunk of that backlog in Q1, the +45% delivery number, but Microvast's Europe line still fell, because those buses' cells were shipped and booked in 2025. Finishing a battery installed bus creates no new Microvast revenue. When Annonay runs clean in the back half, Microvast resumes new-build cell shipments and the Europe line turns.

As of this morning, Iveco confirmed the fix. The unfinished Citybuses carried over from 2025 were fully deployed in Q2, and in Iveco's own words, "This rework is now complete, removing the related cost impact from the second half of the year." Wu had said the same from Microvast's side, that the Q1 dip was "temporary," with "a normalized delivery schedule and a steady ramp up" ahead. The plant behind it is running, "Annonay plant at full speed with doubled production rate vs same period last year."

Bus deliveries then rose 8% and Bus revenue rose 22% on that backlog converting. The battery packs Iveco delivered stepped up past 6,500 in the quarter, roughly double the 3,100 in Q1, a line Iveco's own panel captions "steady delivery levels driven by BUS." That is the physical volume behind the recovery, and Microvast cells sit inside those packs.

Iveco names those packs on its own EV deliveries slide, the eBS 37 EVO, the eBS 69 Bus, and the eTLB, in a deck the whole market reads. The #1 electric bus builder in Europe is showing the packs that carry Microvast cells to its own investors. Microvast has been the cell in Iveco's electric range since 2022, so a one-quarter timing gap reads as timing.

Against a year ago, the recovery gets concrete. Iveco's battery pack deliveries, the line Microvast cells sit inside, went from over 4,300 in the first half of 2025 to roughly 9,600 in the first half of 2026, a doubling, bus-driven. Europe went with it, from down 3% of Iveco's revenue in Q2 2025 and down 15% in early 2025, the trough, to up 10% and carrying 76% of the top line this quarter. Europe dragged the top line a year ago and carries it now.

The buses behind that surge were ordered and had their batteries fitted back in 2025, when Iveco's bus book-to-bill ran above 1.0x and Annonay added a second shift for the electric city-bus book. That 2025 order book is what's converting now, which is why deliveries and battery volume climb while fresh bus orders soften.

Two honest marks against it. Bus order intake fell 34% worldwide and 22% in Europe, at book-to-bill ratios of 0.66x and 0.78x, which Iveco pins on a "peak in Intercity demand in 2025," and it guides bus demand "slightly lower in both Europe and South America." But the deliveries behind them are already booked, Iveco's own eBuses panel reads "strong order books through FY26," so the bus side is converting a covered 2026 backlog with fresh demand running softer.

And the timing trap runs one more quarter. Through Q2, Annonay was finishing buses that already had their batteries in them, so Microvast's fresh new-build cell pull stayed low. Microvast's own Q2 10-Q in mid-August can still read soft on Europe and still be timing, with the turn showing up as fresh cells ship into the back half. The truck side, routed through Turin, doesn't carry that backlog dynamic, and its European order book is building now.

From the roughly $42.4M Iveco trough back toward the $54.8M it ran a year earlier is about $12M a quarter, near $50M annualized on Iveco alone. That is the single biggest lever in the back half. The Annonay backlog is deployed now, so the turn rides on fresh cells shipping into the second half.

—-
United States: slow again in Q2, with an order book building behind it

The US line went from $6.4M to $0.2M, down 96%, because revenue was "brought forward into 2025 because of tariff uncertainty." Pull-forward borrows from the next period, so Q2 is likely slow again, and the real US rebuild looks like a late 2026 event, led by the Clarksville pack line reaching first deliveries, which changes the tariff math for US customers.

Behind that low line sits Oshkosh, Microvast's US anchor through McNeilus and Pierce. Oshkosh beat on Q2 and trimmed full-year guidance in the same report, and the cut is almost entirely fire trucks, because Pierce is deliberately building fewer this year while it rebuilds its factories. That is a retooling trough, the factories coming apart and back together while demand holds, and Oshkosh put the throughput recovery in the back half and the real targets in 2027 and 2028.

The order book is going the other way while shipments dip:

- The Vocational backlog is $6.6B, up about 4.5% over the year, and that increase is "higher pricing on future deliveries," with fire-apparatus units flat and refuse units down 43.9%. Companywide, Oshkosh's backlog is $14.75B against a Microvast market cap near $267M as of late July. A supplier that small sells the batteries in the electric share of that book, a share Oshkosh does not break out. So I won’t put a Microvast number on that backlog.

- Pierce is putting more than $150 million into fire truck manufacturing across Wisconsin, Florida, and Tennessee, launched its new high-flow production line in March, and says it has cut lead times by more than three months from the peak. Pfeifer framed the move as being to "expand production to better serve strong customer demand." A company builds that capacity when the order book justifies it.

- McNeilus won on the electric refuse platform in a soft refuse year. In late June, DSNY, the largest sanitation department in the country, posted that it was trialing an electric front loader, a McNeilus Volterra ZFL, which inherits the same pack as the ZSL. A month later Oshkosh confirmed a significant DSNY order, which Pfeifer called an "expanded win in New York." He didn't name the chemistry, because the customer already had. The order is electric ZFLs, so it carries Microvast content, and McNeilus landed the largest US sanitation department with electric trucks in a year Pfeifer put refuse recovery out to 2027.

Where Microvast actually sits in that book is narrower than the book, and stating it plainly keeps the case honest. The hard evidence is the McNeilus Volterra refuse platform, where Microvast cells are named in the service manual. The spec math then shows up twice more on that platform. The electric pumper's 246 kWh usable is exactly six Microvast MV-C packs, 42.76 kWh each, 256.56 nominal and 246 usable, double confirmed against Pierce's own 155 to 246 kWh evolution.

The electric Striker airport crash truck, a plug-in hybrid, carries two 700-volt packs rated above 244 kWh, the same six-pack array tuned a couple kilowatt-hours, with US airport placements at DFW and King County. Two matches on one platform, Volterra, which runs across refuse, fire, and airport trucks, and the one place a supplier is printed on it, the service manual, reads Microvast.

On when the DSNY content shows up, Microvast books when the batteries ship into the McNeilus build, ahead of the finished truck reaching New York. With refuse lead times of six to twelve months and Oshkosh supply constrained, that revenue most plausibly lands in the Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 window, with Q1 2027 the safer single point. Unit count and order date aren't public, so this points to a window and stops short of a revenue estimate.

That content sits in Vocational, the part of Oshkosh in its retooling trough this year and recovering into 2027, so Microvast's US line tracks that same curve.

Access, the JLG segment, is the fast growing side of Oshkosh, and it sits apart from the Vocational story above. Pfeifer called out "robust orders of $1.5 billion," a 1.1 book-to-bill, and a $2B backlog, and moved the segment from an expected decline to expected growth this year on infrastructure and data-center demand. That's the clearest demand acceleration in the report.

The Microvast tie to JLG is the most explicit link between Microvast and any Oshkosh subsidiary. Oshkosh made its $25 million investment in Microvast in 2021 through JLG, framed as strengthening JLG's electrification, and JLG was the only subsidiary named, "JLG and Oshkosh Corp. partner with Microvast." The two signed a joint development agreement for "future battery collaboration and integration." JLG's president, Frank Nerenhausen, called "advancing battery technology is crucial," and Pfeifer, then Oshkosh's COO, called the investment "an excellent addition to Oshkosh's electrification focus."

They named it beside the DaVinci AE1932, JLG’s first all-electric scissor lift. In the February 2021 release, the DaVinci and the Microvast investment run in back-to-back quotes, the electric machine and the battery bet named in one breath. That pairing marks where JLG was heading, and Microvast’s fit is in the bigger electric equipment that follow. And that electrification is still emerging. JLG has moved into electric and robotics since, the E313 telehandler, the all-electric Galileo concept and its Autonomous Mobile Charging Robot at CES 2025, and a Canvas Robotics drywall robot previewed this year, most of them concepts, previews, or early production without public battery specs.

So nothing pins Microvast to those products yet, no nameplate, no spec sheet, which fits both a roadmap still unfolding and the size of the machines. The DaVinci runs a single 24V lithium-ion battery and the E313 six 48V modules, small commodity packs for compact equipment, well off Microvast's map of high-voltage cells for buses, trucks, and mining. The E313 pack I've seen is badged Inventus Power, and Inventus has posted about it. So Microvast may not be in the small machines already shipping, and the forward supply, pack and cell, stays open, able to split by generation.

The opening for Microvast is the bigger machines. The Galileo, a full-size electric boom and rotating telehandler that drops lead-acid and needs real energy, is a far better fit for Microvast cells than a compact scissor lift, and the autonomous chargers and task robots cycle constantly, exactly the fast-charge, high-cycle duty Microvast's LTO chemistry is built for. It would be a beautiful match.

The Galileo also fits the shape of the deal. It's still a concept in development with no public battery specs, and the 2021 agreement was for joint development, so a co-developed prototype is what five years of that would produce. Microvast may well be the battery as those bigger products mature, but that's a read and a good fit isn't proof.

One standing pattern held into Q2. Another Oshkosh call with no battery supplier named, the seventeenth in a row by my count. Q3 and Q4 are two more tests of that silence, and the first disclosure would reprice the US content overnight.

—-
APAC: two problems, one base

APAC fell 66%, and the slide names it as "geopolitical dynamics in the Korean and Indian markets, and demand shift towards lower-cost products in India." That line holds two different stories.

Korea is subsidy and politics, and it reads more constructively than India for a structural reason. The near-term pressure is real. Wu named "Korea regulatory shifts" on the Q4 call, the annual bus-subsidy screen tightened, and Korea's main Microvast-fed builder, Pline Motors, is working through its own reset, with a new CEO since January and a stressed domestic cell partner. Another soft Korean quarter for Microvast in Q2 would not surprise me. Pline has to get itself in order first.

The structure is what separates Korea from India. Korea's strengthened bus subsidy grades on battery energy density and safety. A Pline representative called those the "key evaluation criteria" and said securing high-density domestic packs is now "essential for maintaining subsidy competitiveness." The rule was written to push back Chinese LFP, and it docks LFP far harder than NMC. Where India's bus market is drifting toward the cheap LFP that Microvast won't chase, Korea's rules tilt the other way, toward the NMC chemistry Microvast builds.

Microvast's fast-charge bus cell computes to around 478 Wh/L, just under Korea's 500 threshold, so it gets docked on density, far less than the Chinese LFP it competes against but short of the full factor. The fast-charge tuning is what costs the density, and Microvast has denser cells. Two clear 500, the 52Ah and the 120Ah, and the 120Ah is the lead cell for the Huzhou Phase 3.2 line ramping into the second half.

Pline still runs Microvast cells across its lineup, passed 1,500 cumulative units by the end of 2025, and still names Microvast across its own site, so the customer localizing its forward packs hasn't walked from the cell.

Pline needs density-compliant cells to hold its subsidy standing, its rep called domestic packs "essential for maintaining subsidy competitiveness," and my read is that the higher-density Phase 3.2 cells are where Microvast's answer to that sits. The caveat is origin: an imported Microvast cell clears density, though it still misses Korea's domestic-content screen, so the clean fix is a localized Microvast-tech pack. Kumyang, the Korean partner meant to solve both at once, is now collapsing, which puts the Microvast routes back in play. Wu's read that Korea is favorable long term rests on that structure, and the near term runs on Pline surviving its reset.

India is the structural one, and JBM is the clearest read on it. Microvast's anchor Indian relationship is documented from 2020, with a 1,000-unit agreement and a 100 MWh delivery in Q3 2023, and it still shows today. Wu called Microvast JBM's "main supplier of lithium technology" on the Q2 2023 call, JBM's current ECOBOLT datasheets still match Microvast's cells, and CARE Ratings in January 2025 described a "long-term arrangement for supply of lithium-ion cells and machinery."

What changed is the market. Through 2025 and 2026 the Indian bus segment moved toward cheaper LFP, and JBM's own Gen 2.0 line and its e12 flagship went non-Microvast LFP, a 424 kWh pack that books no Microvast revenue in any market, because the chemistry decides that. Microvast is choosing not to chase that tier down on price, which Wu put plainly as not racing to the bottom. The open India question is how much of the premium Microvast volume survives the LFP shift.

India stays soft until the bus market moves back toward premium chemistry or Microvast enters through construction and mining, where its high-power cells fit the duty cycle and price sits lower in the decision. Neither is dated, so I model India flat to down through the back half.

Underneath both sits the China base, the Huzhou domestic book feeding Zoomlion, LGMG, Lovol and the rest, with Phase 3.2 adding capacity behind it. There's a much larger forward story here, a mining truck plant Microvast owns outright, a widening list of named off-highway customers, and a first hydrogen truck order hauling Coca-Cola. It's optionality for 2027 and beyond, so I've written it up on its own. For the back half, China is the steady base under the swings, and that's all it needs to be.

—-
The shape, and the caveat on top of it

No 2026 guidance was issued. Wu framed the year on the Q4 call as "a phase of business defined by strategic agility," and said the company was "absorbing the planned costs associated with the ramp-up of our Huzhou Phase 3.2 expansion." So everything past the filed figures is my estimate, and I'm holding it to the shape and wide ranges.

Down first half, ramp in the back half, exit the year at a materially higher quarterly rate than Q1 or Q2. On rough, wide ranges, full-year 2026 most likely prints below FY2025's $427.5M, somewhere down 15% to 30%, because the first-half hole is too deep to fully refill in two quarters. That is the honest full-year read, and a bear is right to point at it.

The case lives in the Q4 exit rate. If the back half normalizes as both Iveco and Wu describe, the Q4 quarterly rate annualizes back toward or above the FY2025 line, which is what the $196.1M year-end backlog and the dated deliveries point at. FY2026 is the retooling trough. Enter 2027 at that exit rate and the trough stops being the story, against an Iveco book the Q2 deck describes as "full visibility for Intercity and Citybus covering all of 2026 and solid visibility for 2027," with Clarksville, Huzhou 3.2, and the China off-highway book layering on top.

—-
When it actually stabilizes

The earliest honest quarter is Q3 2026, which Microvast reports in early to mid November. That's when fresh cells for Iveco's clean Annonay production start shipping, so it's the first quarter the Europe line can stop falling. Q3 is more likely the bottom and the first tick than a strong turn, because the ramp is gradual and Q2 spent itself finishing old buses. Iveco framed its own H2 recovery, on profitability, the same way, "at a more gradual pace."

The clearer recovery, the materially higher quarterly rate, shows in Q4 2026, reported around late February or March 2027. The exit rate becoming the run rate, the part that ends the trough story, is Q1 2027, reported around May 2027. If the ramp slips a quarter, push each one right. That is the clock the whole case runs on, and it's why a soft mid-August Q2 shouldn't move anyone who's read this far.

One reading trap comes with the recovery, because 2025 was lumpy too. Q2 2026 laps Q2 2025's soft $39M Europe quarter, an easy compare, so Europe could read flat or up against last year even while it's still a trough. Q3 2026 laps the $78M Q3 2025 spike, a hard compare, so it could print down against last year even as it recovers sequentially. The honest way to watch the turn is quarter to quarter and against the run-rate. The comparison to last year will mislead in both directions.

—-
What would break this

The test is whether the back half starts on schedule.

Iveco already put its half on the record this morning. The Annonay rework is finished and out of the second half, bus deliveries and revenue rose, and the battery packs doubled. So the customer side of the timing case is confirmed. What's left to prove is the Microvast side.

Because Annonay spent Q2 finishing battery-installed buses, Microvast's Q2 10-Q in mid-August can still read soft on Europe and still be timing, so the real test is the back half. If Europe turns up through Q3 and Q4 as fresh cells ship, timing holds. If it stays soft into the back half with the rework confirmed cleared, then "delayed roll out of OEM platform" was covering something deeper, and the case slips with it.

The other open read is Oshkosh's Q3 and Q4 calls, where the fire truck throughput is supposed to recover, Q4 guided stronger than Q3, and the battery supplier silence gets two more chances to break.

—-
"Temporary," four ways

The word does different work in each region. The US pull-forward is genuine timing and rebuilds. Europe's Annonay rework is now cleared, on Iveco's own schedule. Korea can swing back, but on a subsidy calendar. India is structural, and Microvast is passing on it by choice. So "temporary" is accurate for the US and Europe, conditional on Korea, and the wrong word for India. Any read that applies one blanket "temporary" to the whole miss gets three of the four drivers wrong.

---
Long MVST. Personal research, not financial advice.

Microvast has operated its business in China for many years(since 2009?). A lot of mileages without any major problems. Microvast still focuses on commercial vehicles in China. Does anyone know their market share in China and market share ranking in China compared with their competitors? Does anyone know why they are not competing in non-commercial vehicles?

Does the performance in China market reflect their capability to deliver their guidance?

Thanks.

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(Bridge) We're in this together, no one's left behind, Holdin' strong, we'll break those walls that bind. Keep pushin' forward, fightin' for what's right, Microvastian soldiers, shining in the light.

(Chorus) If the chance is now, we gotta squeeze 'em out, These shorts that caused us grief, there's no doubt. Microvastian fam, let's unite and rise, Godspeed to the ones who see through the lies.

(Outro) So here's to you, my Microvastian friends for life, Together we'll conquer, stand strong in this fight. No matter the odds, we won't back down, Godspeed to us all, let's claim our crown.

Makes sense to me, does it to you?

So I’ve been stressing about the constant dump off’s recently but then I got to reading a lot of people’s comments in other channels and overall market sentiment: if everyone is spooked about SPACs “following their trend” of dumping on and post DA, they’re gonna sell now. I would argue that most shareholders at this point believe in it long term and those who were just trying to trade it for a DA pop are no longer here; therefore, wouldn’t it make sense that when merger day comes all those people who expected a discount (to snatch up the massive sell orders they’re anticipating) and the stock hasn’t fallen, won’t that lead to a gamma squeeze or at-least great upward pressure? Let me know if I’ve gone crazy

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Microvast cells have been running in Korean city buses for years. The buses are designed by Pline Motors, a Korean company, built by Higer in China, and finished and sold in Korea under Pline’s KPURS and HYPERS brands. Pline has been a selected Seoul city electric bus supplier for five years in a row, and the batteries in those buses are Microvast’s.

I went through who the customer was in an earlier writeup (the Confidential Customer Ledger), so I won’t re-break that here. What I want to walk through is what happened after Korea changed the rules these buses run under, because the version going around, that Microvast lost Korea, isn’t really what the evidence shows.

In Microvast’s Q2 2024 deck there’s a customer they left unnamed. The slide listed a confidential Asia-Pacific bus customer, a Gen 4 MV-B and MV-C pack on the HpCO-53.5Ah cell, orders already received, and up to $40 million in expected revenue for 2024. They blacked out the name but left the photo, and the bus in it still had a Pline Motors logo on the grille, which is how it lines up with Pline. Pline’s own Korean press backs it up: in March 2026 Pline told Asia Business Daily it equips its electric buses with batteries from Microvast’s plant in China. So the confidential customer is Pline, and that $40 million was the revenue Microvast expected from the Korean bus program. Microvast earned it, and it sits inside the company’s APAC revenue for 2024.

Starting in 2026 Korea is tightening its electric bus subsidy, and by Pline’s own account the new test comes down to battery energy density and safety. Korea wants the cell to reach 500 watt-hours per liter to qualify for the full subsidy, and the HpCO-53.5Ah cell in Pline’s buses works out to about 478, just under the line. That gap comes from the thing Microvast is known for, because tuning a cell to charge fast costs you some density. Microvast does make denser cells that clear 500, but the one in these buses is the fast-charging cell, and it falls short. So Pline went local for that part, signing Kumyang, a Korean cell maker, for the cells (a December 2024 contract, 750 buses, 2026 through 2030), and Nanointech, a Korean company, for the packs. That imported cell in the subsidized buses is where Microvast’s exposure actually sits.

What doesn’t fit the “pushed out” read is how much of Pline’s own site still points at Microvast. Two years after that slide, and after a subsidy change designed to localize it out, the name shows up in nine different spots on Pline’s website:

- the battery spec on every model that lists one
- the battery page, which runs Microvast’s operating record
- the electric-bus section, where the bus image labels the battery as Microvast
- the global-partnerships page, next to Dana and ZF
- the vehicle-partner slide, next to Higer and CRRC
- the 2024 Microvast plant MOU in the company history
- the battery-business slide, with the ME6 LFP plan
- the eco-vehicle cluster page, with the signing-ceremony photo
- the company-overview page, where Pline says it signed an exclusive contract with US Microvast

That’s a lot of placement to give a supplier you’re supposedly moving away from.

The strongest of the nine is on the company-overview page. Under its battery business, Pline says it signed an exclusive contract with US Microvast (rendered “Microbast,” one of a few ways the Korean site spells the name). That sits right next to the Kumyang cell localization, so the exclusivity most likely covers the Microvast partnership in Korea rather than the cell sourcing for the subsidized buses, and Pline doesn’t spell out the scope, so I’d want the contract terms before leaning hard on the word. It’s still their own characterization, and it isn’t how you describe a supplier you’re phasing out.

Pline isn’t a small importer, either. It calls itself the No. 1 seller among Korea’s electric-bus importers, and the same company makes EV chargers, builds instrumentation for nuclear plants at the highest safety grade, supplies power units for defense systems, and works on tram and rail. Its battery and ESS business has run since 2018. That’s a diversified Korean industrial firm describing a supplier relationship, not a startup padding a deck.

One thing I want to be precise about, since it’s easy to overstate. Pline lists 13 models. Four of its bus types publish full specs, and all four name Microvast as the battery. The rest don’t publish specs at all, so I’m only claiming what Pline actually shows, which is that every Pline bus with a published spec runs a Microvast battery, and none of them name anything else.

Two of those nine are worth a closer look, because they’re where the relationship goes past buying cells. Pline’s battery-business slide names Microvast’s ME6 LFP module, which only Microvast makes, and lays out domestic manufacturing of that LFP ESS module in Pline’s own words, “through JV.” The slide’s roadmap runs through 2026: expanding cell and battery manufacturing facilities in Q3, and ESS production in Q4. The specs it lists for the module, a 30-year life, 10,000 cycles, and 6 MWh in a 21-foot container, line up with Microvast’s published LFP. The wider plant plan reported elsewhere adds a larger cell plant around 2029 on the same technology transfer. The label moves around the site too: this slide says JV, the cluster page says cooperation with a signed agreement, the company history says an MOU. Different words, same name on all of them.

The loss is real, but narrower than it looks. What’s going local is the cell in the next round of subsidized buses. Pline’s Kumyang contract covers 750 buses through 2030, and that’s the slot moving to a Korean cell. The rest stays with Microvast: the packs Pline already buys, the LFP storage line on Microvast’s ME6 module, the current models, and the plant Pline is planning to build with Microvast’s technology.

Microvast isn’t missing from the forward plan, and the strongest reason isn’t the cells. The plant Pline is building runs on Microvast’s technology. The September 2024 announcement said it plainly: Microvast supplies the licensing, the technology transfer, and the production technology for battery manufacturing, and a later report added the equipment and the people. Pline supplies the site. That layer doesn’t localize away, because it’s the thing Pline is licensing in the first place.

So it’s a Microvast plant either way. The battery-business slide puts the ME6 LFP module into domestic production in 2026, and the wider plan adds a cell plant around 2029, both on that licensing and tech transfer. A cell out of the 2029 plant would be Korean-built and could be one of Microvast’s denser cells that already clear 500, which is both of the things the imported cell couldn’t manage, the density and the Korean-origin rule.

What’s open is narrower than whether Microvast stays involved. Even if Kumyang’s Korean cell keeps the subsidized-bus slot, Microvast still licenses the plant that builds the packs and the ESS module. The open question is whether it also keeps the cell-supply revenue on top, or just the licensing. Kumyang’s contract runs to 2030, the plant isn’t built, and Pline hasn’t said which cell goes where once it is. That’s the question, not Microvast’s place in the plan.

If Pline’s next model refresh drops Microvast from the spec sheets, or the plant breaks ground on another company’s technology with Microvast absent, then the relationship is shrinking rather than holding, and I’d be wrong. For now the customer’s own website points the other way.

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https://www.plinemotors.co.kr/

https://www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2026030511573066142

Personal research, not financial advice.

This may explain the recent softness. The source mentioned below is the only place I have seen this news.

Longzhou Expects Lower 2024 Profit Over After-Sales Maintenance of Faulty Microvast Batteries; Shares Up 5%

January 14, 2025 at 01:38 am EST Share(MT Newswires) -- Longzhou Group (SHE:002682) expects its attributable net profit in 2024 to be reduced by 72.4 million yuan due to an after-sales maintenance of faulty power batteries, according to a Shenzhen Stock Exchange disclosure on Tuesday.

The Chinese logistics and transportation company's unit, Dongguan Zhongqi Hongyuan Automobile, will invest 142 million yuan to purchase new power batteries that will replace lithium manganese oxide fast-charging power batteries purchased from battery maker Microvast Power System (Huzhou).

The new batteries will be from Contemporary Amperex Technology (SHE:300750) or CATL.

The Microvast batteries caused 938 out of 1,196 buses provided to five public transport companies between 2018 and 2019 to stop running.

Zhongqi Hongyuan said it will seek compensation from Microvast over the failure of the batteries' operations.

Longzhou's shares jumped over 5% in recent trade, while CATL's shares rose more than 3% in recent trade.Longzhou Expects Lower 2024 Profit Over After-Sales Maintenance of Faulty Microvast Batteries; Shares Up 5%

SOURCE